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A simple observation of the human condition is all. Google Herd Immunity.Quote:
Originally Posted by mtuhockey33
We (being everyone) get there by burn rate or vaccination or a combination of the two. No other choice.
I am not critical of you for your personal decision BTW, just stating a fact.
https://media.giphy.com/media/MPuTZQqOmYKPK/giphy.gifQuote:
Originally Posted by DJSapp
:D
:p
Because the vaccine will not be 100% effective. There will be people with weakened immune systems--cancer chemo for example--and others who for one reason or another won't develop effective immunity. Those people will be counting on everyone else being vaccinated for their own safety. (This assumes that being vaccinated protects people from being asymptomatic transmitters--not known yet.)Quote:
Originally Posted by mtuhockey33
Initially, when many people have not had a chance to be vaccinated there may be requirements for proof of vaccination. Almost certainly for international travel. Beyond that it will depend on what the case rate is once everyone who wants to be vaccinated has been. While vaccine is in short supply it makes no sense to force some people to get it while others who want it can't get it.
It will be interesting to see if businesses require employees to be vaccinated, especially while vaccine is in short supply--get ready to see your 20 something barista replaced by a 60 year old obese diabetic. I'm guessing not.
It's all about living in society. It may be news to you, but we do have obligations to our fellow human beings. We accept those obligations when we partake of the benefits of society--drive on the public roads, shop in stores, expect someone to save our house when it catches on fire. If you decide to live off the grid and grow your own food and leave the rest of us alone then you can do whatever the fuck you want. I know these are old fashioned ideas and are rapidly fading from American consciousness--which is why we have cornered the world market on coronavirus-- but they aren't quite dead yet.
Facts and data do not work with the Covidiot brain. I'm sorry about your affliction caused by your addiction.Quote:
Originally Posted by mtuhockey33
So, take a lap.
> This assumes that being vaccinated protects people from being asymptomatic transmitters--not known yet.)Quote:
Originally Posted by old goat
I'm not sure how they don't know that yet. Are you saying that of the 10s of thousands of study patients, no one from the vaccinated camp got tested for this?
I find that hard to believe.
What I think is more likely is that the bodies response to the virus kicks into production, producing a small lag time between being infected, becoming contagious and being on-the-mend whilst simultaneously being less contagious.
Purely a speculative guess and probably wrong, but plausible.
They surely know this and just are not saying because of the extra layer of complexity it adds to vax approvals and public acceptance.
Imagine if we had a high level of anti-vaxxers when the polio vaccine was introduced. My sister had polio and it's left her partially disabled for life. She spent a number of years in leg braces with a lot of time spent at the Shriner's Hospital for care. It's really impacted her life in many ways that she really has never recovered from, not just physically but emotionally. She's a bit of a wreck and always has been.
My parents never batted an eyelash as there was no way they wanted me to go through what she went through. I still have the scar at the vaccination site as all my friends had, too. In places where the vaccines weren't widely available, polio remains to this day. Africa just was declared free of the wild polio virus and Afghanistan and Pakistan still, to this day, have the presence of the virus. In the US, the last of domestically introduced polio was in 1979 and the last of internationally introduced polio was in 1993, nearly forty years after becoming available. What has essentially eradicated it was the vaccine and the development of herd immunity.
The best means for eradicating this corona virus is through a thorough and broad-based vaccination protocol. If we want to eradicate it from our society and world, we need to develop herd immunity, just as we have with polio. Shining it on because you're young and virile only postpones the reopening of our society and our lives. We are currently just existing, waiting for this to be brought under control so we can continue our lives the way we want to. Excuses for not getting this vaccine are hollow. Get the fucking shot when you can. The rest of our society is on hold until we can achieve the goal of 70-80% vaccinated. Don't be that guy.
There is zero evidence so far that the vaccine has any risk--much less a higher risk--than actually getting COVID-19. I understand there are known risks and unknown risks, but don't act like there is actually data now indicating the vaccine could harm you.Quote:
Originally Posted by mtuhockey33
^^^
> Imagine if we had a high level of anti-vaxxers when the polio vaccine was introduced.
How long had the Polio virus been circulating before a vax was developed?
How widespread was testing?
What resistance was there to the vaccine?
How was that resistance overcome?
“A calculated risk”: the Salk polio vaccine field trials of 1954
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1114166/
I'm just reading that right now. It seems we have a lot to learn from past wars on disease and what the ingredients were to public confidence and uptake.
I’m glad we have you to speculate here about things you have a very limited understanding of. Why do we need people that have actual expertise in immunology and vaccine development when we have you.Quote:
Originally Posted by puregravity
Maybe when Trump overturns the election he can appoint you to head the CDC
Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums
^^ (Intended for PG)
https://www.npr.org/sections/health-...d-out-a-killer
How long had the Polio virus been circulating before a vax was developed? - About 60 years
How widespread was testing? - Don't know
What resistance was there to the vaccine? - Some for the first couple of years, mostly due to a botched batch of vaccine that caused some deaths. It's a dead-virus vaccine and some of the virus in that batch wasn't dead and actually introduced polio to some of the receivers of the vaccine. The problem was identified and fixed. My understanding of this virus is that it's different in that it's a RMA messenger and of a different, and safer, methodology than dead-virus vaccines.
How was that resistance overcome? - By the pictures of crippled and dead children. Polio was/is an insidious disease. My parents, having lived through it with my sister, were highly compelled to get me vaccinated when I could be. The risks of vaccination are very low, compared to the risks of getting the disease. People also tended to be trusting of those who actually were scientists and understood the enemy and how to fight it, not so much armchair epidemiologists who would question things they didn't understand.
Bottom Line: We need to eradicate Covid 19. In order to do that effectively, we need to develop herd immunity. Get the fucking shot.
Quote:
Originally Posted by GoldMember
“A calculated risk”: the Salk polio vaccine field trials of 1954
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1114166/
> How widespread was testing? - Don't know
It was massive. The current covid vaccine trials pale by a factor of ten. We are talking >= 1.6 million participants.
> What resistance was there to the vaccine? - Some for the first couple of years, mostly due to a botched batch of vaccine that caused some deaths. ...Quote:
polio vaccine field trials of 1954, sponsored by the National Foundation for Infantile Paralysis (March of Dimes), are among the largest and most publicised clinical trials ever undertaken. Across the United States, 623 972 schoolchildren were injected with vaccine or placebo, and more than a million others participated as “observed” controls. The results, announced in 1955, showed good statistical evidence that Jonas Salk’s killed virus preparation was 80-90% effective in preventing paralytic poliomyelitis. ....
Yes. But also staunch resistance and criticism from within the scientific community.
>How was that resistance overcome? - By the pictures of crippled and dead children. Polio was/is an insidious disease.Quote:
Several of the senior virologists on the Immunization Committee, notably the Nobel laureate John Enders of Harvard and Albert Sabin of Cincinnati ... questioned the ....
Yes, I had a good friend pass away years ago (Actually 2 friends - the first died of old age, the second from brain cancer). #1 suffered a life of partial paralysis from the waist down. He never let it stop him though - he achieved great things. I am indebted to his kindness and friendship. #2 also a memorable cartoon artist, a very kinds and welcoming and generous human. His funeral was an epic celebration.
Quote:
Thirty six health departments, representing a large segment of public opinion and the rank and file of the medical profession, were committed to that plan and their participation was necessary to the field trial. If the Salk vaccine trials were to succeed, it was essential that they be a great national event, enlisting volunteers, doctors, and parents in one united effort that represented the culmination of 15 years of work and faith. Given the climate of scientific doubt that surrounded the killed-virus vaccine, it was essential that the field trials offer public, as well as scientific, validation of its effectiveness.
The National Foundation for Infantile Paralysis had tried to reconcile its scientific and political problems by working through the state health officers, but this group—each official facing the conflicting demands of professional training and public constituency—was itself divided.
All sides had to be brought together to make it happen.
I think that's what we need today. It may take some patience on all sides, to address concerns and ensure safety over politics (and possibly corporate profits).
You lose a lot of your audience when you "Get the f$%%^ shot!".
It hurts the cause.
How about STFU and get the shot?
No other argument.
But we're talking about two very different viruses. Polio is spread (usually) through fecal contamination. Coronavirus is spread through the air. You can effectively control polio with good hygiene practices and good public sanitization (water and food supplies). We know there are some things that can slow the spread of COVID-19, but a vaccine is really the only way (hopefully) to stop it in its tracks. Therefore speed is of the essence. I don't think there was really that kind of pressure to develop a polio vaccine quickly. During the polio "epidemic" of 1952 only 60,000 people were infected and around 3,000 died in the U.S. That's a vastly different scale.Quote:
Originally Posted by puregravity
Just an FYI I think the number of Mericans who will actually get vaccinated is going to be much lower than people think. Maybe flu shot levels. The front line restaurant workers I deal with as I go about my job delivering food while literally holding my breath behind a home made cloth mask/furnace hepa filter combo aren't at all excited about getting the shot. Either they aren't getting it or they plan to wait and see.
As I've said before...sign me the fuck up. Also, my mom was a public health nurse for a while, later in her career and most of my life a Professor of Nursing at Iowa. Getting vaccines has never been an option for me, nor will it ever be. I had my flu shot in August and will have the Covid shot at first light.
During the 2018-2019 season, 62.6% of children between six months and 17 years got a flu shot. Among adults, 45.3% of people got vaccines. The vaccination rate varied by race and ethnicity, with 51% of non-Hispanic white people getting the vaccine compared with 44.7% of the non-Hispanic Black population.Sep 10, 2020 Source CDC 2020
Patience on all sides gets lost when the anti-vaxxer crowd is building through misinformation social media sites. That movement is a threat to the safety of all and is without scientific merit. As for me, i lose my patience with these conspiratorial theorists who proclaim vaccinations are more dangerous than the diseases they prevent. Sorry if you think I'm losing my audience, I don't consider myself having an audience. I just want this eradicated and want my life back. The backsliders who follow that other crap are lessening my opportunities to have that happen.Quote:
Originally Posted by puregravity
I think a lot more people (compared to the flu shot) will get vaccinated if the real world efficacy results are similar to what the trials have shown. It's not going to be anywhere near 100%, but I think well over 50%.
JFC. OK, let's try this again.
The immune system, the immune response, and disease transmission and progression are never a black or white process. There are always shades of grey as it is inherently a probabilistic issue. One should never be asking themselves "am I immune or not" or "will I get sick or not" or "what can I do to get my life to return to normal". You should always be asking "what can I do to minimize or maximize the probability of an outcome" because that is how this works.
The point of a vaccine is to maximize the probability that your immune system will respond quickly enough so that it minimized the chances of you getting sick or you passing the virus along to someone else. It does this by giving your immune system the answer to how to attack the virus before it sees the virus, so when it does actually see the virus, it can react fast enough to minimize the chances of you getting sick or passing the virus along to others. Not no chance, but minimize the chances. Look at the following article:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...-response.html
In the graph under "Triggering the Immune System", taking the vaccine is about training your adaptive immune system to be able to ramp up the purple line "adaptive response" really quickly so that it tamps down the orange line "viral load".
Or if you want to get more technical, look at this article: https://judithcurry.com/2020/10/14/t...ity-threshold/
Look at Figure 1. Taking a vaccine is essentially creating a bunch of "cross reactive" stuff in your immune system so it takes the bodies response from the "No Cross Reactive Memory" option in the top left, to the "Model 2: T Cell accelerated antibodies" option in the bottom left. Note that there is no viral load and no symptoms in Model 2, there are still yellow and red viral load lines and still a green COVID symptoms line, but they are greatly minimized and with a good vaccine (which these seem to be) nearly non-existent.
In many ways, getting vaccinated as an individual is exactly analogous to wearing a mask and staying at home to "Flatten the Curve" at a community level. It's just that instead of a population curve of "people sick", the curves are now personal "viral load", "symptom", and "transmission" curves. And flattening your personal curves through getting a vaccine also flattens the community curves to the greatest extent possible. I guess it makes sense then that the same people who selfishly buck the population level flatten the curve stuff are the same ones who will buck the personal flatten the curve stuff of the vaccine.
Ok PG, you're damn close to landing on my ignore list but I'll play one more time.
Why don't we just call the first 1,000,000 doses of the vax administered the Phase 5 trial? Would that be enough for you? If there are significant and/or widespread side effects, I'm sure we'll hear about it in the news, and soon. There will be feedback and it will come far sooner than your number is called to get the shot. Do you honestly think they're not going to monitor post-vaccination patients like a hawk? Do you think people won't go screaming to OAN with their COVID vax injuries? The only thing that will seem to make you happy is demonstrated effectiveness and widespread evidence that it doesn't harm humans. The only way to achieve that is to inject the masses. You're stuck in a circular logic argument. If you can't inject until it is demonstrated safe, how can you inject to test? Label the bottle 'experimental' and move forward.
Except our testing and methods are better than they were in 1950. In the last 70 years there have been massive breakthroughs in vaccine research and testing methods. Our understanding of the human body is far, far greater. Maybe the trials don't need to be as large as the 50's because we can do a lot more in a computer and faster?
I think the bigger problem is, is that you think you can understand the science and numbers, but you don't. You understand enough to ask questions that are repeatedly and exhaustively clarified, debunked, and remove causes for concern, but you twist it and repeat it into a further and further irrational argument as you simply cannot admit that you are out of your element and you don't understand it. You don't trust the experts on this because you believe they are all corrupted by greed and self interest (Thanks Trump).
Saying you're against the vaccine because it isn't proven yet in large enough numbers and you'd rather keep the world shut down for a decade has got to be the most stupid and cowardly argument I have ever heard. You want to compare to Polio? Peak Polio infection in the US was 58k cases in the year 1952. We're currently infecting 215k PER DAY in the US. We have nearly 5x the number of dead in 9 months vs. the peak number of polio cases. So there's a sense of urgency here. We don't have a decade unless you want to see tens of millions dead.
It takes strong leadership at the highest levels to provide assurance to the public of the safety of the vaccine, the detail and transparency of information related to outcomes, and a detailed plan of how the distribution chain will work. It also takes all of society to make a point of understanding the need and responding responsibly. We've been lacking on all fronts to this point. This isn't political, it's survival of individuals and our society as a whole. My hope is that we have a clear and cogent plan and leadership to build the momentum toward developing herd immunity.Quote:
Originally Posted by uglymoney
On the point of those in the restaurant industry who are reluctant to get the vaccine, if I were the owner of that kind of business, I would make it a condition of employment that they get the vaccine within a reasonable period of time from when it becomes available to them. If for no other reason, to create a liability shield against civil action should someone get sick in my restaurant. It should be the due standard of care for any food or public facilities where the public is in close contact with the staff.
I hope so. We're really a fucked up backwards country now though. Already had a leftist friend pm me an antivaxxer youtubes directly produced to misinform and confuse, and we suffer from a ton of people who really aren't paying attention. Most people don't have to deal with those people, but I do, as a result of my failure early in life to focus on getting my shit together enough to have a role in society where I could be isolated from covidiots. I'm in a sea of morons 4 days a week. Thankfully only for seconds at time before I can find my way to diluted outside air but after doing this for months and months in a state that is run by red facist sycophants instead of rational law makers it is taking a toll on me. I lost my shit on a guy yesterday at work for coming in on me with no mask. Had to apologize at the same time making it clear he had to say away from me and if he didn't put a mask on his product would be left outside. Also the publicity from things like the allergic reactions in the UK today will not help even if they prove to minor problems affecting small numbers of people like most vaccines - as appears likely.Quote:
Originally Posted by The AD
All this on top of trying to plan a vacation amid people who want to lose their shit on me, for trying to find a piece of sanity for a week. I get it. But it's a lot.
You know, I miss the generations of people with attitudes like this. You're pinned down, under fire with no way out other than through, and it may be risky:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/De9oddTV...g&name=900x900
Except getting a vaccine is way less risky.
I still want a signed notorized document by the anti vaxxers and non mask wearers and hoaxers saying “I will not seek medical help when I get sick”
To say I’m tired is an understatement. To be ridiculed and harassed by people who are, frankly, ignorant, has become enraging. Just pushed too far
Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums
US will hold a distinction as being the most privileged 3rd world country. Leadership & decision making relegated to myths, legends and superstition.Quote:
Originally Posted by uglymoney
PureGravity - Do you ski? I assume you do but you're aware that skiing has risk, right? How do you reconcile the risks associated with skiing to the actual activity?
Are you a doc?Quote:
Originally Posted by detrusor
My brother in law is an ER doc, so are a bunch of his friends, many of whom I know and have skied/biked with. I also know a number of hospitalists. ALL of them are stoked to get vaccinated and all of them are about a million times smarter than puregravity.
This country is fucking doomed.
I haven't followed this whole thread. Have we talked about the massive conflation that will happen as the vaccine rolls out? Specifically, the number of people who will drop dead of non-vaccine causes at roughly the same time they receive the vaccine which will cause mass hysteria among the anti-vax crowd?
This is true, but I really hope there is a silent majority that has the sense to trust the (real) experts on this and will get vaccinated, even if they've got some reservations about it.Quote:
Originally Posted by uglymoney
Didn’t you guys hear? Thalidomide was thought to be safe (except for the people who knew it wasn’t). Doctors used to treat people using mercury! How can we trust that anything doctors and scientists are saying today is 100% true - now and in the future? I think I’ll take my chances with the virus - despite the effects of that on me also being impossible to predict with 100% certainty.
On an unrelated note - puregravity did it take the second cutting of the gondola cable to get you to finally accept that it wasn’t a “wind event” or acidic bird shit? Or are those options, once on the table, always in serious consideration?
This right here bears repeating. It should be taught every year K-12 in some form and it's understanding should be tested before any diploma or degree. It is a universal life skill that applies to everything medical and everything with unknown future outcomes in life. Society fails to teach this at its own peril.Quote:
Originally Posted by LegoSkier
If it makes you feel any better, pg is Canada's problem.Quote:
Originally Posted by RootSkier
Exactly. There are expectations of perfect where results can only qualify as very good. That's not acceptable to some but it is the reality. We need to not let perfect be the enemy of very good.Quote:
Originally Posted by jono
Wait...what?? I would have sworn he's from Arkansas. NTTAWTQuote:
Originally Posted by Ted Striker
Srsly. They are going to LOSE THEIR FUCKING MINDS.Quote:
Originally Posted by huckbucket
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/202...88253f71e9.jpg
Wake up sheeple!
Thalidomide is an interesting case as the FDA blocked approval of the drug for morning sickness in the US. The brave move by the FDA spared many the birth defects it can cause some US patients got the drug via Europe with the resulting fetal damage. Thalidomide is still prescribed in the US typically for oncology patients. The fetal damage caused by Thalidomide caused the FDA and MHRA to require teratology studies before drug entities would be approved for pregnant women.Quote:
Originally Posted by bennymac
Enough pharmacology, I am waiting for my turn to get the COVID vaccine. I survived lots of other vaccinations and the Salk polio vaccine with the active monkey virus.
Attachment 352039Quote:
Originally Posted by bennymac
What?! We still use thalidomide today? In people? This goes deeper than we thought. How can we trust science to get things 100% right 100% of the time now and into the future? If we can’t then I say we abandon science altogether.Quote:
Originally Posted by Talisman
Jesus we are fucking DOOMED.Quote:
Originally Posted by bennymac
No gloves??Quote:
Originally Posted by bennymac
That’s fucking weird.