Herd immunity for the Brits?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...2d8_story.html
LONDON — This is a puzzler. Covid cases are plummeting in Britain. They were supposed to soar. The scientists are not sure why.
The daily number of new infections recorded in the United Kingdom has fallen for seven days in a row — to 23,511. That is half what it was one week ago.
People are asking if could this be the first real-world evidence that the pandemic in Britain is sputtering out — after three national lockdowns and almost 130,000 deaths?
Public health experts are perplexed: Where is the uptick, let alone the surge?
The highly contagious delta variant of the virus, first detected in India, accounts for almost all new cases in Britain. Pubs are serving pints at the rail, throngs are packing the beaches, and night clubs have reopened with maskless youths crowded on the dance floors. Then there was the Euro 2020 soccer madness. England did indeed party most heartily.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s government ended almost all government mandates in England for mask-wearing and social distancing on July 19, dubbed “Freedom Day” by the press. Viral defense is now a “personal choice.”
Public health experts, alongside the government, predicted that cases would rise, perhaps even soar, in the weeks after Freedom Day. Some of the best infectious-disease modelers on the planet warned that 100,000 new cases a day this summer could be expected.
But cases have been dropping, even as hospitalizations and deaths climb.
Scientists have theories. Maybe it’s the sunshine? There was a week-long heat wave.
Schools have closed for the summer break, so children are not spreading the virus as much.
It is also possible that people have stopped getting tested — because if they test positive, even if they are fully vaccinated, they are asked to quarantine for 10 days, even if they are about to travel to France for their holidays.
Or maybe Britain has reached the threshold for herd immunity. More than 70 percent of adults in Britain are fully vaccinated, and 88 percent have had a first dose, one of the best vaccine uptakes in the world. Among those who have not been vaccinated, many have had covid or asymptomatic infection, adding to natural immunity.