To Vaccinate or Not---The Rat Flu Odyssey Continues

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Originally Posted by bodywhomper

But related to the recent Twitter thread and some of the journal articles that I’ve recently posted.

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which is fascinating stuff that I very possibly won't live to see the resolution of.
I've been on the edge of medical science long enough to see lots of chemical explanations for things like Adult Respiratory Distress Syndrome, Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome, Disseminated Intravascular Coagulation begin with epiphanies and turn into rabbit holes. Maybe they'll get lucky with this one. The more we learn about the body the more complicated it gets. (And we know absolutely jack shit about the brain,)

The cool kids are all treating their PTSD offshore with ibogaine.

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Originally Posted by ::: :::

Anyone who actually wanted to convey some info to a pessimistic audience would check their references & confirm that their pontifications were accurate and publicly referenced prior to asserting a suspect hypothesis.

It’s not the reader’s job to guess what you meant

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Its not worth it.

re. ibogaine -
cardiac toxic.
may induce psychosis, schizophrenia; and
may lead to a relapse of drug use...


ugh. ( skiJ )

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Originally Posted by old goat

which is fascinating stuff that I very possibly won't live to see the resolution of.
I've been on the edge of medical science long enough to see lots of chemical explanations for things like Adult Respiratory Distress Syndrome, Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome, Disseminated Intravascular Coagulation begin with epiphanies and turn into rabbit holes. Maybe they'll get lucky with this one. The more we learn about the body the more complicated it gets. (And we know absolutely jack shit about the brain,)

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In the late 90’s, I used to conduct brainwave experiments on a man in his mid-80’s. He spent every school day auditing classes at the university, mostly biology courses. He had a degree in biology from the late 40’s and did not have a career focused on biological resources. He was continually fascinated by the advances of information in biological sciences. All the elderly human subjects I met in that lab were fascinating.

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Originally Posted by ::: :::

Anyone who actually wanted to convey some info to a pessimistic audience would check their references & confirm that their pontifications were accurate and publicly referenced prior to asserting a suspect hypothesis.

It’s not the reader’s job to guess what you meant

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Well if I remember which things I learn from academic sources and are pretty well proven, and which things are somewhat less proven or just pontification, and I make the difference clear when I say things, then whoever wants to pontificate can join the discussion, and whoever is curious can search the things I say are true and make up their own mind. I think the issue is about not believing what I say more than guessing what I meant no? Basically if there are parts of the brain that are atrophied, PTSD is not psychosomatic. Thats not hard to understand.

I guess I typically avoid pessimistic audiences, and pessimistic people in general. I probably just have a memory of this place as something different and need to process the difference.

I think everyone has gotten more wary of dis and misinformation and more likely to write others off as too something or other, and thats understandable, but I also just get wearing of the "well prove it" attitude towards everything. It just becomes a drag. LIke if you learned something recently you might remember a source, or if its part of your career, but other than that all knowledge is invalid, or you have to rereasearch everything youve ever learned just to have the right to say it. It just seems more efficient and utilitarian to research something yourself if it sounds interesting. I get the feeling I am misreading my audience, and am quite aware most here more have the impression I know absolutely nothing, which is fine. I should stop wasting my time.

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Originally Posted by leroy jenkins

I should stop wasting my time.

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You’ve said this like a dozen times.

So, Moderna x2, Moderna boosted in late November, Covid in January. One of my docs says go for booster #2, her PA says don't.

Friend got some new double shot called Evushield, but it is because he is immunocompromised.

Boost or wait on the next wave?

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Originally Posted by TNKen

So, Moderna x2, Moderna boosted in late November, Covid in January. One of my docs says go for booster #2, her PA says don't.

Friend got some new double shot called Evushield, but it is because he is immunocompromised.

Boost or wait on the next wave?

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do what your doctor advises

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Originally Posted by old goat

do what your doctor advises

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x2

Yeah, I'm leaning that direction. She did say wait 4 months so I'm about in the window.

Having just had omicron. It sucked! Double vaxed and boosted. I’m sure a second booster would’ve made it less sucky. Lots of people I know getting it. Numbers are lowish because testing has been reduced. Pretty sure we’re right at the start of new surge. I’m thinking this thing will settle into some sort of seasonal sickness and we’ll be getting be boosters like the flu shot.

The difference between covid and flu when it comes to a potential yearly vaccine is that there are a fairly limited number of flu strains that vary year by year and which spread slowly enough that the strains for each years shot can be identified and vaccines made before the seasonal surge. We also know from experience that vaccines against the year's strain will be at least partially protective. The virology and epidemiology of flu has been studied for years and is relatively predictable and even then the scientists don't always get the vaccine right.

At least so far it seems that covid is mutating faster and spreading faster so that a new variant could spread rapidly before a new vaccine could be developed. I'm sure Pfizer and Moderna could make Omicron B.2 shots to be ready in the fall. The question is would be if the new vaccine would be effective against the current strain, and would that be the strain in the next surge or would it be something that's resistant. So yearly shots might work, or might not work at all. Too soon to say if we're in for yearly shots it seems to me. And we may yet see a pan-covid or pan-coronavirus vaccine or a nasal vaccine that prevents spread better. Just have to wait and see.

One scenario is that as time goes on more and more people will be exposed to covid as small children and rarely getting sick so that there will be a constant high level of immunity in the population from both infection and vaccination. Obviously that will take decades, but in the interim older kids, young adults, and middle age adults will be infected with still low levels of illness so that there will be fewer and fewer older people getting sick. Or a highly lethal highly infectious strain could emerge and kill everyone on earth in 6 weeks.

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Originally Posted by old goat

The difference between covid and flu when it comes to a potential yearly vaccine is that there are a fairly limited number of flu strains that vary year by year and which spread slowly enough that the strains for each years shot can be identified and vaccines made before the seasonal surge. We also know from experience that vaccines against the year's strain will be at least partially protective. The virology and epidemiology of flu has been studied for years and is relatively predictable and even then the scientists don't always get the vaccine right.

At least so far it seems that covid is mutating faster and spreading faster so that a new variant could spread rapidly before a new vaccine could be developed. I'm sure Pfizer and Moderna could make Omicron B.2 shots to be ready in the fall. The question is would be if the new vaccine would be effective against the current strain, and would that be the strain in the next surge or would it be something that's resistant. So yearly shots might work, or might not work at all. Too soon to say if we're in for yearly shots it seems to me. And we may yet see a pan-covid or pan-coronavirus vaccine or a nasal vaccine that prevents spread better. Just have to wait and see.

One scenario is that as time goes on more and more people will be exposed to covid as small children and rarely getting sick so that there will be a constant high level of immunity in the population from both infection and vaccination. Obviously that will take decades, but in the interim older kids, young adults, and middle age adults will be infected with still low levels of illness so that there will be fewer and fewer older people getting sick. Or a highly lethal highly infectious strain could emerge and kill everyone on earth in 6 weeks.

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Factually incorrect about flu Goat. There are 4 different strains formulated in the Flu vax each year, with much greater genetic diversity than what has been observed for Sars2 so far. They get picked each year based on prevalence in the S. hemisphere during the previous flu season, and even so often do not match the dominant strains that end up causing majority of disease in the N hemisphere, why flu boosters can vary so much in efficacy each year. The biggest difference is how long the world has had to build some preexisting immunity as you rightly pointed out.

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Originally Posted by old goat

Or a highly lethal highly infectious strain could emerge and kill everyone on earth in 6 weeks.

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Mother Nature's reset button. The more I see, the more I think we deserve it.

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Originally Posted by altacoup

Having just had omicron. It sucked! Double vaxed and boosted. I’m sure a second booster would’ve made it less sucky. Lots of people I know getting it. Numbers are lowish because testing has been reduced. Pretty sure we’re right at the start of new surge. I’m thinking this thing will settle into some sort of seasonal sickness and we’ll be getting be boosters like the flu shot.

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So, how do we reduce Covid numbers? Wait, let's pass out free test kits to everyone, so they will know whether or not they have Covid, but since they didn't go to the doc to get tested, it doesn't get reported.

Damn, why didn't I think of that.

up here we are being told to empty the bird feeders cuz of the avian bird flu


I was just thinking its amazing we have real fucking scientists weighing in on this thread every so often


but then we got the leroys

We just had a retired PhD virologist who did mRNA work (for the past 20 years) at John Hopkins join our ski patrol. Pretty bright fellow on this stuff.

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Originally Posted by Mofro261

Factually incorrect about flu Goat. There are 4 different strains formulated in the Flu vax each year, with much greater genetic diversity than what has been observed for Sars2 so far. They get picked each year based on prevalence in the S. hemisphere during the previous flu season, and even so often do not match the dominant strains that end up causing majority of disease in the N hemisphere, why flu boosters can vary so much in efficacy each year. The biggest difference is how long the world has had to build some preexisting immunity as you rightly pointed out.

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Thanks for the corrections. My point is that with flu we have a more or less predictable idea of what's to come and time to make vaccines for it--more or less successfully. That may turn out to be the case for covid--based on world wide surveillance of variants that seem to be causing most disease from year to year but it still seems like the emergence and spread of significant variants may be happening too fast to keep up. Given the virulence of covid compared to flu getting the vaccines right is more critical if we are to keep serious infections and death to a tolerable level. Idle speculation on my part.

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Originally Posted by TNKen

We just had a retired PhD virologist who did mRNA work (for the past 20 years) at John Hopkins join our ski patrol. Pretty bright fellow on this stuff.

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But can he run a sled?

how many leroy do you have ?

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Originally Posted by XXX-er

how many leroy do you have ?

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Asking the real questions here. Signal to noise ratio.

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Originally Posted by XXX-er

how many leroy do you have ?

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Is that like Ogdens?

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Originally Posted by riser4

Is that like Ogdens?

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Yes it is.

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Originally Posted by TNKen

So, how do we reduce Covid numbers? Wait, let's pass out free test kits to everyone, so they will know whether or not they have Covid, but since they didn't go to the doc to get tested, it doesn't get reported.

Damn, why didn't I think of that.

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Pretty sure antifa gave Biden the idea.


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