To Vaccinate or Not---The Rat Flu Odyssey Continues

I got my Pfizer booster in late Nov. I’m going to fly in a month and attend an event with a lot of kids/parents (hundreds). It’s time to boost up again, right?

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Originally Posted by The SnowShow

I got my Pfizer booster in late Nov. I’m going to fly in a month and attend an event with a lot of kids/parents (hundreds). It’s time to boost up again, right?

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I personally would. In fact, I recently did. :D

So I've posted earlier in this mostly helpful thread (as long as you know whom to ignore.) Mar 2021 when J&J was first offered and it was to be a single shot I got it. Then they really did not publicize the fact that a second shot would be recommended until much later so did not do anything until fall. I got a Moderna booster in Dec 2021 and have so far been pretty careful (wearing a mask most crowded places unless outdoors on a few occasions, washing hands pretty regularly and all, but probably want to plan for the next round that I think will be coming. So some are at 3 or 4 with booster, and I'm at 2 with the last booster basically 5 months ago. So another Moderna? Or any collective advice on nextround of booster...

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Originally Posted by RShea

So I've posted earlier in this mostly helpful thread (as long as you know whom to ignore.) Mar 2021 when J&J was first offered and it was to be a single shot I got it. Then they really did not publicize the fact that a second shot would be recommended until much later so did not do anything until fall. I got a Moderna booster in Dec 2021 and have so far been pretty careful (wearing a mask most crowded places unless outdoors on a few occasions, washing hands pretty regularly and all, but probably want to plan for the next round that I think will be coming. So some are at 3 or 4 with booster, and I'm at 2 with the last booster basically 5 months ago. So another Moderna? Or any collective advice on nextround of booster...

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Article on recent booster recs:

https://www.webmd.com/vaccines/covid...-covid-booster

Third shot should be another mRNA. Don’t make a recommendation of Pfizer vs. Moderna. From what I’ve seen previously, Pfizer may have a very marginal benefit.

Not sure on current guidance for timing for different ages.

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Originally Posted by J. Barron DeJong

Article on recent booster recs:

https://www.webmd.com/vaccines/covid...-covid-booster

Third shot should be another mRNA. Don’t make a recommendation of Pfizer vs. Moderna. From what I’ve seen previously, Pfizer may have a very marginal benefit.

Not sure on current guidance for timing for different ages.

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What have you read about Pfizer having a very marginal benefit?

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Originally Posted by The SnowShow

What have you read about Pfizer having a very marginal benefit?

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This:
https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/cov...cy-11635955315

Not specific to J&J as the first shot. It appears that mixing shots has benefits, but the Moderna booster is stronger. If you’d had Pfizer originally then it looks like the next shot being Moderna has clear benefits. Not nearly as big a benefit with following Moderna with Pfizer vs just sticking with the same.

For what it’s worth, I was vaccinated and boosted with Moderna, will probably go for Pfizer next, but IANAD.

"The vaccinated made up 42% of fatalities in January and February during the highly contagious omicron variant's surge, compared with 23% of the dead in September, the peak of the delta wave"

Point was your silver bullet ain't so shinny and the media is even telling you. Best of luck with your Boosters.

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Originally Posted by NakedShorts

"The vaccinated made up 42% of fatalities in January and February during the highly contagious omicron variant's surge, compared with 23% of the dead in September, the peak of the delta wave"

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2/3 of the population is vaccinated, and much higher percentages for the high risk folks, who are still at higher risk after vaccination compared to the rest of the vaccinated, just relatively less risk than without vaccination. So the majority (vaccinated and higher risk) account for the minority of deaths.

Most of the remaining unvaccinated have had COVID, which offers protection, although they earned it at a higher risk and in a less pleasant way (and many died and so cannot get sick again). So you have 1/3 of the population (unvaccinated), who have lower risk factors and some protection, are still accounting for most of the COVID deaths.

All of this is expected. So what was your point again?

Why do I even open this thread. I'm going skiing.

I'm impressed this person thinks people should take them seriously about various economic and market issues in other threads, yet can't parse that statistic.

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Originally Posted by oldnew_guy

I'm impressed this person thinks people should take them seriously about various economic and market issues in other threads, yet can't parse that statistic.

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Seriously. Maybe a picture will help:

Attachment 414882

https://twitter.com/jkwan_md/status/...3C1y8v-MD68aEw

does the definition of 'vaccinated' yet include boostered ?

so that's 58% of the fatalities in Jan and Feb were still Unvaccinated, despite almost A Million dead nationwide and More than five million reported dead worldwide --

Just the latest troll. . .


I will continue to beat the drum - but I won't waste any energy on the Antivaccination troll who just wants to prance
( there was always a court jester for entertainment. )


immunity wanes -
Please Be boostered.

Thank you. skiJ

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Originally Posted by skiJ

does the definition of 'vaccinated' yet include boostered ?

so that's 58% of the fatalities in Jan and Feb were still Unvaccinated, despite almost A Million dead nationwide and More than five million reported dead worldwide --

Just the latest troll. . .


I will continue to beat the drum - but I won't waste any energy on the Antivaccination troll who just wants to prance
( there was always a court jester for entertainment. )


immunity wanes -
Please Be boostered.

Thank you. skiJ

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Vaccinated deaths in the article include boosted and non-boosted.

Boosteds have much lower fatality rates. Get and stay boosted.

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Originally Posted by J. Barron DeJong

Seriously. Maybe a picture will help:

Attachment 414882

https://twitter.com/jkwan_md/status/...3C1y8v-MD68aEw

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The picture confuses me. I think I'll go back to the words.

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Originally Posted by old goat

The picture confuses me. I think I'll go back to the words.

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Huh, seems intuitive to me, but we all learn differently.

The picture on the left shows what you see if you only consider the actual number of hospitalized cases, and it looks like you’re actually worse off to be vaccinated.

But if you consider that the group of vacccinated is much larger than the unvaccinated (especially among seniors, who are most at risk of hospitalization), then you see that your odds of ending up in hospital are much lower if vaccinated. (Right picture)

Last week they didnt have enough people to staff a BC ferry to Haida Gwai so canceled sailing and yesturday they didnt have enough security people at YVR all due to Covid sickness

I don't think everone is necessarily dying but covid IS affecting travel

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Originally Posted by J. Barron DeJong

But if you consider that the group of vacccinated is much larger than the unvaccinated (especially among seniors, who are most at risk of hospitalization), then you see that your odds of ending up in hospital are much lower if vaccinated. (Right picture)

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Yup.

The inverse illogical thought would be: Vaccines cause poor covid outcomes, because look at all the kids who aren't vaccinated and not ending up dead or in the hospital.

That, and the latest data still shows that Omicron (BA.1) infection not very immunogenic when sera tested against BA.4/BA.5. But Omicron infection + vaccine improves neutralization titres against BA.4/BA.5

"However, the low absolute neutralization levels for BA.4 and BA.5, particularly in the unvaccinated group, are unlikely to protect well against symptomatic infection. This may indicate that, based on neutralization escape, BA.4 and BA.5 have potential to result in a new infection wave."

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Originally Posted by Hopeless Sinner

I was wondering what your thoughts were on #4.


If I wasn't going to the gym 3/week I'm might hold off, but I'm at 6 months now so I think I'll get one asap.

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Originally Posted by J. Barron DeJong

Huh, seems intuitive to me, but we all learn differently.

The picture on the left shows what you see if you only consider the actual number of hospitalized cases, and it looks like you’re actually worse off to be vaccinated.

But if you consider that the group of vacccinated is much larger than the unvaccinated (especially among seniors, who are most at risk of hospitalization), then you see that your odds of ending up in hospital are much lower if vaccinated. (Right picture)

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Oh, I know what it means. And that the statistic of what percentage of the dead were vaccinated is meaningless. It's just that the picture required a little bit of thinking. Pictures aren't supposed to require thinking like words do. That's why I never read the articles in playboy.

I want to know one thing--at my age, medical condition and vaccine status, what are my chances of getting covid, of getting sick from it, and of dying. These are numbers that might influence my behavior--getting a 4 th shot, wearing a mask, not going indoors in public, etc.

I'll let the epidemiologists worry about the rest.

dying is one of two certainties.

to paraphrase BenFranklin

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Originally Posted by old goat

Pictures aren't supposed to require thinking like words do. That's why I never read the articles in playboy.

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Quote of the year? I think so.

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Originally Posted by Trackhead

Quote of the year? I think so.

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It's only the end of April.

I post this PSA, sourced from the TWiV doctor (Griffin), who claims many doctors aren't keeping up with available treatments. There's also a FDA website somewhere with the latest covid treatment protocols..

In addition to vaccination, there's 4 treatments now that are mostly really good and one that's ok at keeping you alive and out of the hospital if you get infected. Don't wait for symptoms. They need to be taken early after the positive test for best effect. Generally you need to be at some sort of risk to qualify (and not at other risks), though the qualifications are getting easier. Paxlovid, remdesivir, monoclonals, and molnupiravir. If you go the monoclonal route, your doc also needs to know which one works - the variants evade many of the older ones. Griffin also mentioned evusheld (sp?), but I forget what he said. Some qualify for young kids.

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Originally Posted by LongShortLong

If you go the monoclonal route, your doc also needs to know which one works - the variants evade many of the older ones.

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Monoclonal infusions are guided/managed by hospitals or infusion centers. Monoclonals are continually evaluated for efficacy by FDA with their emergency use authorization revoked/continued as applicable to efficacy. Your doc can't order Sotrivimab anymore, no infusion center or hospital will allow it as they are following EUA guidelines/updates.

You can see an example for Sotrivimab and the FDA updates here.

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Originally Posted by old goat

Oh, I know what it means. And that the statistic of what percentage of the dead were vaccinated is meaningless. It's just that the picture required a little bit of thinking. Pictures aren't supposed to require thinking like words do. That's why I never read the articles in playboy.

I want to know one thing--at my age, medical condition and vaccine status, what are my chances of getting covid, of getting sick from it, and of dying. These are numbers that might influence my behavior--getting a 4 th shot, wearing a mask, not going indoors in public, etc.

I'll let the epidemiologists worry about the rest.

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I didn’t go to med school. Did the textbooks go for the text only option, or was it just a picture flip book? :fmicon:

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Originally Posted by Summer

https://yourlocalepidemiologist.subs...nding-risk?s=r

Because “dying from COVID-19” is new in our risk repertoire, we can contextualize it by comparing it to other activities, which may help calibrate risk. For example:

- The risk of a 0-4 year old dying from a COVID-19 infection (227 MM) is about the same as the risk of a mom dying from childbirth in the U.S. (210 MM).

- For a vaccinated 18-49 year old, the risk of dying from an Omicron infection (90/48 MM) is less than the annual risk of dying on the road (100 MM).

- For a boosted 50-64 year old, the risk of dying from an Omicron infection (516 MM) is about the same risk as driving for 5 years in the U.S. (500 MM).

- For an unvaccinated 65+ year old, the risk of dying from an Omicron infection (28,978 MM) is about as risky as 1.5 years of heroin use (29,550 MM).

- For a boosted 65+ year old, the risk of dying after an infection (6,023 MM) is about as risky as a baby’s first year of life (6,600 MM). Or, it’s a little more risky than one year of active service in Afghanistan in 2011 (5,000 MM).

There is never zero risk of dying from COVID-19. Nothing has zero risk. But the risk is substantially reduced after vaccines. For some, it may be comparable enough to other things in our life to take a deep breath.

But, as we all know, mortality isn’t the only possible outcome of COVID-19 infection.

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If you have kids in school or daycare and aren't still working from home, the biggest short term risk is someone bringing it in to your household and everyone has to isolate as it works its way through everyone there.. A week or two offline at work and school really sucks..

Then of course the long term physical issues..

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Originally Posted by Summer

https://yourlocalepidemiologist.subs...nding-risk?s=r

Because “dying from COVID-19” is new in our risk repertoire, we can contextualize it by comparing it to other activities, which may help calibrate risk. For example:

- The risk of a 0-4 year old dying from a COVID-19 infection (227 MM) is about the same as the risk of a mom dying from childbirth in the U.S. (210 MM).

- For a vaccinated 18-49 year old, the risk of dying from an Omicron infection (90/48 MM) is less than the annual risk of dying on the road (100 MM).

- For a boosted 50-64 year old, the risk of dying from an Omicron infection (516 MM) is about the same risk as driving for 5 years in the U.S. (500 MM).

- For an unvaccinated 65+ year old, the risk of dying from an Omicron infection (28,978 MM) is about as risky as 1.5 years of heroin use (29,550 MM).

- For a boosted 65+ year old, the risk of dying after an infection (6,023 MM) is about as risky as a baby’s first year of life (6,600 MM). Or, it’s a little more risky than one year of active service in Afghanistan in 2011 (5,000 MM).

There is never zero risk of dying from COVID-19. Nothing has zero risk. But the risk is substantially reduced after vaccines. For some, it may be comparable enough to other things in our life to take a deep breath.

But, as we all know, mortality isn’t the only possible outcome of COVID-19 infection.

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Some interesting factoids. Re maternal mortality--the US sux at that compared to the the 1st world and a lot of the other worlds as well, just like we do with covid.
Re driving--it's not just risk, it's risk benefit. People accept the risk to get places faster. And of course your risk of dying behind the wheel depends on behavior, just like covid. Probably more so.
Same with heroin. I assume there's a benefit, although I have no experience. And at least some of the risk is economically dependent--if you're a big rock star who can afford the habit, has access to clean drugs and clean needles, and is lucky enough to avoid the fentanyl there's a reasonable chance of making it to a ripe old age. We all know examples.
]

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Originally Posted by J. Barron DeJong

I didn’t go to med school. Did the textbooks go for the text only option, or was it just a picture flip book? :fmicon:

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I couldn't afford books. A friend of mine in the year ahead. told me everything on the exams, including the boards, was in the lectures, so I went to those. He was right. The only book I bought was anatomy--for the pictures.
And I bought the ABC's of Acid Base Chemistry, because the author, Prof. Davenport, who everyone seemed to think was a big name, was signing our copies. I took mine to Antique Roadshow but it wasn't worth anything.

The places I went under grad professors usually had the library reserve desk set up with a copy of most of the required textbooks. There were a few people I knew who would just go borrow those, read the assignments there in the library, and photocopy the key parts. So it was possible to succeed without having to buy most of the books.

Well, my turn, I guess. Despite being double vaxed and single boosted (all Moderna) I got sick and tested positive last Friday night. Had to wait until Monday before I could call my doc about possibly getting one of the therapy drugs, but by then I was starting to feel better so I ultimately passed on that.

Started out with some sneezing and runny nose, and kept getting worse - fatigue, mild fever, chills, then sore throat and finally coughing up little chunks of toxic waste.

Seemed like the Russian army trying to invade my lungs. Luckily, it didn’t quite get there. Suddenly my immune system realized it knew how deal with those orc fuzz balls and kicked them out. Sore throat gone, cough gone, still a bit weak and dizzy, but feeling much better today.

Overall, like a pretty mild case of cold or flu. So, I’m thankful the vaccines trained my immune system so well, although it would have been nicer to avoid the whole experience altogether. I guess it was one of those new immune resistant variants, but I didn’t have DNA testing done on it, so have no way of knowing for sure.

After 3 pokes I got the mild 24hr covid. Caught it from my wife who had the "feel fluish off and on for two weeks" type.

Got poke #4 yesterday and switched to Moderna. Arm a bit sore and body feels achy.

Pharmacist pushed me to take 8 test kits. No cost to me, Uncle Sam pays the manufacturer 100%. We both agreed that free testing was 1 1/2 years late but good for $$ for the manufacturer.

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Originally Posted by Cisco Kid

After 3 pokes I got the mild 24hr covid. Caught it from my wife who had the "feel fluish off and on for two weeks" type.

Got poke #4 yesterday and switched to Moderna. Arm a bit sore and body feels achy.

Pharmacist pushed me to take 8 test kits. No cost to me, Uncle Sam pays the manufacturer 100%. We both agreed that free testing was 1 1/2 years late but good for $$ for the manufacturer.

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Wife came home from work vomiting and fever like chills vey much like the Dec 2020 COVID that sent her to the hospital in an ambulance. Tested negative the next morning. It's definitely all around us. Other people she works with have it. I was sick 2 weeks ago but tested negative.. Waited out 3 days of symptoms before testing.. negative..

We're all on the 3rd poke. Really hoping we can wait and reload early fall right as the cold weather that has folks packing inside tighter again rolls in. I do have an irrational fear that TOO much might be have diminishing returns to jabs..

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Originally Posted by Cisco Kid

Pharmacist pushed me to take 8 test kits. No cost to me, Uncle Sam pays the manufacturer 100%. We both agreed that free testing was 1 1/2 years late but good for $$ for the manufacturer.

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I was glad to have the 4 antigen tests sitting around that I previously ordered from the Post Office. Ordered my second batch of 4 tests yesterday, all free. Very easy to order from the website. Minimal questions and quick delivery. The new batch is supposed to arrive Thursday.

https://special.usps.com/testkits

conversationally, guys ,
while our out-of-pocket cost is zero,
I believe it is going to be staggering when the bill for covid comes-due -

five Trillion over the last two years in usofa ( and still rising. including the "stimulus" )

it's not free.


skiJ

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Originally Posted by billyk

I was glad to have the 4 antigen tests sitting around that I previously ordered from the Post Office. Ordered my second batch of 4 tests yesterday, all free. Very easy to order from the website. Minimal questions and quick delivery. The new batch is supposed to arrive Thursday.

https://special.usps.com/testkits

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Limit of #2 orders per residential address

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Is that new? I wasn't aware we could order then twice. Didn't notice that when I ordered the first round .

Family gathering July 1st with my immune compromised sister there. Good to have plenty of tests available for stuff like that.. thanks..

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Originally Posted by SumJongGuy

Is that new? I wasn't aware we could order then twice. Didn't notice that when I ordered the first round .

Family gathering July 1st with my immune compromised sister there. Good to have plenty of tests available for stuff like that.. thanks..

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Not that new. I think it was a month or two after they first offered the first 4 tests that they expanded it to two orders of 4 tests.

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Originally Posted by skiJ

conversationally, guys ,
while our out-of-pocket cost is zero,
I believe it is going to be staggering when the bill for covid comes-due -

five Trillion over the last two years in usofa ( and still rising. including the "stimulus" )

it's not free.


skiJ

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And you can bet the GOP will be screaming about cutting the social safety net even further.

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Originally Posted by skiJ

conversationally, guys ,
while our out-of-pocket cost is zero,
I believe it is going to be staggering when the bill for covid comes-due -

five Trillion over the last two years in usofa ( and still rising. including the "stimulus" )

it's not free.


skiJ

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Yeah, of course, I meant free to order. The total cost of the pandemic is, like you say, staggering, and we are starting to see some of the unintended consequences in inflation and rising interest rates to try to combat that which may very well lead to market corrections and recession. Will have to see how that all plays out.

However, I think the cost of the tests are minimal in the grand scheme of things and a great use of public funds, as were the costs of the vaccines and their development. This is exactly what public funds should be used for. Millions for renovating the Presidio golf course was probably harder to justify as covid relief.

At the risk of turning this into a full fledged polyass shitstorm, maybe we can leave it at that.

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Originally Posted by billyk

Yeah, of course, I meant free to order. The total cost of the pandemic is, like you say, staggering, and we are starting to see some of the unintended consequences in inflation and rising interest rates to try to combat that which may very well lead to market corrections and recession. Will have to see how that all plays out.

However, I think the cost of the tests are minimal in the grand scheme of things and a great use of public funds, as were the costs of the vaccines and their development. This is exactly what public funds should be used for. Millions for renovating the Presidio golf course was probably harder to justify as covid relief.

At the risk of turning this into a full fledged polyass shitstorm, maybe we can leave it at that.

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Yep, huge amount being spent to counter the pandemic - and not always ideally - but very likely that not doing that would have had much greater costs.

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Originally Posted by J. Barron DeJong

Yep, huge amount being spent to counter the pandemic - and not always ideally - but very likely that not doing that would have had much greater costs.

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QFT

Y’all are aware that the rapid antigen tests are showing positive typically several days after symptom onset, there supposedly is a timeframe (that can be for several days) of being infectious but not yet testing positive on an antigen test, and that for many(?) that take paxovid, they are experiencing a rebound? There’s also the scenario of a vaxed person being exposed, developing symptoms (which is their immune response), symptoms resolving, and never becoming infectious. The description of the paxovid rebound that I’ve read is that the patient will test negative after finishing their 5-day tx, will develop symptoms a few days later, and will get positive again with an antigen test, indicating that they are still infectious.

If you're in Washington you can order 10 antigen tests a month in addition to USPS https://sayyeshometest.org/

So in spite of everyone being double boosted and extensive testing requirements, The White House Correspondent's Dinner has turned out to be a super spreader event. Jonathan Carl is sick with COVID, the Secretary of State has it, along with dozens of people representing pretty much all the various news agencies.
Indoors in tight spaces around non family for more than a few minutes tonight. Thinking I'll be wearing a good mask for that event..