Exactly. Do I trust some AI on a server in a closet in Atlanta, or the old guy on TV who's been watching storms over the Wasatch for 40 years?Quote:
Originally Posted by Core Shot
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Exactly. Do I trust some AI on a server in a closet in Atlanta, or the old guy on TV who's been watching storms over the Wasatch for 40 years?Quote:
Originally Posted by Core Shot
The local, duh.Quote:
Originally Posted by Touring_Sedan
https://media.tenor.com/Alf78-u5JkoA...t-outdoors.gif
Oh cricky could I tell you wild stories about Jean and her partying ways. Wild child that one.Quote:
Originally Posted by Ted Striker
Uh......farmers. Our local weather people do a pretty good job covering the area so they know when to cut hay or harvest wheat.Quote:
Originally Posted by Supermoon
I think the key here is that your weather forecaster needs to be tuned into your local area. Portland, Maine, forecasts don't really hold up in the Western Maine mountains, for example.Quote:
Originally Posted by Touring_Sedan
People not using hyphens properly for compound adjectives annoy me. There's a significant difference between a "big-ass taco" and a "big ass taco."Quote:
Originally Posted by ex-powderbroker
What is meteorologists are doing is creating a forecast by blending the models. They are using their knowledge and experience to understand the strengths and weaknesses of each model. This is why different forecasts work better for different areas. As skiers concerted about snowfall, it is best to concentrate on high resolution models. Many, but not all, of the models are run by NOAA. The NWS is a consumer.
If you have interest in either proving this too yourself, or being your own forecaster, head over to Windy.com and play around with all the layers. At Weather.com, use to map to create a point forecast and then look at the tabular or graphic results. Also, always read the Area Forecast Discussion. Sometime, you'll have to read two offices. For example, in the mountains of CO both the Denver and GJ offices are relevant.
Same here. We have (I think?) Pocatello and Riverton, which don’t experience some of our localized factors, such as orographic lift, etc.
Right, some models to a good job resolving that, some don't. Another condition that models struggle with are valley inversions.
For your area, go to Weather.gov and type in Jackson, Jackson Hole, Teton Pass and Grand Teton into the search box and check the output.
And here is your AFD
Really, that should be all you need. If you spend a couple of minutes a day forecasting and then checking against observed conditions, you can gain forecasting confidence pretty quickly....or you just find the chick with the biggest tits (Angie Austin) and go from there.Quote:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
521 AM MDT Sat Jul 15 2023
.DISCUSSION...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 1220 AM MDT Sat Jul 15 2023
The upper level high continues to sit near the four corner region
building northward across the CWA with increasing convergence
aloft. Northwest flow aloft will push any thunderstorm activity to
the northeast and east, but a stray shower is possible across the
Bighorns but confidence is low at this point. The HRRR did very
well pinpointing the couple cells from Friday evening depicted the
night before, and currently has any activity east of the CWA.
Otherwise, warmer and dry conditions persist for much of the state
for Sunday and into next work week. Afternoon high temperatures
back into the 90s for the lower lying areas east of the Divide and
80s to the west. Higher terrains will see cooler temperatures down
into the 70s and upper 60s, but for the most part, warmer than
average temperatures will be the story for much of the next week.
Upper level ridging will continue to extend into the CWA but will
be a slight dip in the jet stream to usher a weak shortwave
across northern counties Tuesday evening. This will be the best
chance for any thunderstorm activity outside of the daily higher
terrain chances mainly affecting the northern half of the CWA east
of the Divide. Otherwise, the upper level low out of the Gulf of
Alaska looks to track southward along the west coast blocked by
the aforementioned ridge and high. With this regime set in place,
expect some haze/smoke conditions in the mid to upper levels
coming in from the Canadian prairie fires ongoing for quite some
time now. Air quality alerts in place for central and eastern
portions of the state with little to no chance in the upper level
pattern for the next week and into next weekend outside of the
Tuesday evening shortwave that puts a temporary dent into the top
of the ridge before arch building back up from the south for
Wednesday onward.
All in all, much of the forecast period will be hot and dry for
much of the CWA with much of the same for longer term models to
end the month of July.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday)
Issued at 519 AM MDT Sat Jul 15 2023
All terminals to remain VFR through the TAF period. Winds remain
light in variable into the morning hours, before increasing again
around 19Z Saturday. Strongest northwest winds will be in the
evening from 23-02Z. Lingering moisture in northwest flow aloft to
allow for isolated showers/storms over the higher terrain
Saturday afternoon. However, weak nature of the convection coupled
with unfavorable steering winds should leave terminals
unaffected. Canadian wildfire smoke will make its way into eastern
and northeastern parts of the state. The only terminal which may
see some hazy skies would be KCPR, however VFR is still expected
to remain throughout the period.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1220 AM MDT Sat Jul 15 2023
Increasing fire weather concerns over the next week as
temperatures rise and limited precipitation chances outside of
the higher terrains. Westerly winds 10-20 mph for the most part,
higher with elevation. Relative humidity values will be down near
the 15-20 percent range for much of the basins and valleys, lowest
towards the Colorado state line that could drop at or just below
the 15 percent threshold Sunday and Monday. Tuesday will have the
best chance for any widespread precipiation associated with a weak
storm system to the north, but relative humidity values will be
over the 20 percent mark with no significant winds expected for
the remainder of the week.
Does anyone else find these little plastic pieces that are supposed to help you peel the seal off things like mustard almost useless? I'd say my success rate trying to use them is around 10%. Usually I end up just poking a hole in the seal with a knife.
Attachment 465000
Attachment 465018
My success rate is around 90%. What do I win?
Overstuffed tacos annoy me. Tacos Herrera in Truckee are my idea of a taco. One option--marinated beef, with a little onion, cilantro, one kind of sauce, a wedge of lemon. Not fancy, but good enough to have every construction guy in Truckee lined up.Quote:
Originally Posted by anotherVTskibum
That kind is better than the ones where there's a two micron tab hanging over the edge that's impossible to grasp.Quote:
Originally Posted by The AD
Just got my trigger finger dealt with last Monday. Annoyed with overworking the finger around the yard and house - stiff as hell. Should be healing faster. At least 10yrs ago it would’ve be….
… and should have dealt with this then.
Attachment 465023
Hell, with those thumbs I'd be shocked if you could tie your shoe laces.Quote:
Originally Posted by The AD
Totally added on to your heart line bro.Quote:
Originally Posted by BCMtnHound
I wish. Surgeon just co-opted the line for the incision. Very happy with her work and the procedure itself. But puts a crimp on riding, paddling, and housework.Quote:
Originally Posted by Name Redacted
Just got 7 screws in my pinky so i feel your pain. It heals fast. Get better soon!Quote:
Originally Posted by BCMtnHound
Fo-cast still sucks
Attachment 465030
Yup. Even our high elevation areas are high 80s to low 90s the next week or so. High of 84 tomorrow at Mt Baldy, 10,000ft.Quote:
Originally Posted by Vt-Freeheel
Heh. There’s a story there.Quote:
Originally Posted by Name Redacted
Back atcha!
Spent a good part of the afternoon making one of my favorite curry dishes for dinner.
Sat down and tucked in to nothing. Couldn't taste a GD thing. Fucking hate my whacky sense of taste.
Been a while since it's done this to me. No it's not Covid. It's just my special hell. I've been to the ENT for it. He basically said what I told him I experience can't happen and he could find nothing wrong. Asshole.
When this happens I can smell the food but I have zero taste. Nada. Nothing. Like eating air.
bummer
That's modelology, there are few real meteorologists left.Quote:
Originally Posted by Foggy_Goggles
People who complain about the accuracy of modern weather forecasts. Outside of a few hard to predict places (mountains), weather forecasts are crazy good to 7 days.
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