given today with no reversal of two days down 1100 dow points, i'd bet 200 MDA tested within a month, there's no sign anywhere that the virus is being curtailed and economic affects just starting.
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I think a lot of people would disagree that putting up the capital (and taking all the risk of ruin), for a business to then use to be successful, is unearned income.
Just because someone didn't sweat while working doesn't mean the money was unearned.
Of course, there are exceptions to the above, but the general point stands.
Liquidity of assets is important. The ability to buy and sell cheaply and freely.
I agree with you in that the nature of IPO's has changed. It used to be we raised capital to invest in early adopter businesses. Now it's to cash out early private investors and create "liquididty events."
Another big problem is automated trading. Look at December 2018 when the whole thing unraveled on basically nothing other than a few fed words. Momentum trading feeds on itself. If it starts melting the fed will have to act because there is no other way to stop it.
Fuck that man. Nothing is free. Volatility is the price. Can’t handle it, should have never been in. Making mkts in 2001, I was the Enron option specialist among other issues, so take me with a grain of salt.
Some dude old dude changed the channel on me the other day and when I told him off, he made some a joke how “money is everything” and walked off.
Amateurs
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Years ago 1-2% moves DAILY were common. We would test both sides of unchanged in search of price discovery all the time. Stocks have gone so far so fast that point moves have sticker shock. 1000 dow points aren't what is used to be. It's a difficult adjustment for sure.
In 1987 500 points was 22% of the Dow Index value. We got that in one day. Today that would be 6000 Dow points.
that is entirely true.
I shorted that early and rode it down(it was fantastic), it was govt intervention that reversed it at the rate it did. sure, it might have reversed on its own; but its speed of recovery was all because of intervention(unfortunately it was during the Christmas holiday so my availability to ride both sides was muted)
This will be my concern if the market continues to sell off. Folks like Kevo's parents rotating out of stocks 3-5 years earlier than expected as the rally runs out of steam. If I was in my 60's and had a high concentration of my wealth in the stock market, I am enjoying my historic good luck and calling it a day. I'm not going to risk a 20% drawdown for limited upside return.
Trying to hold 3200~. A weak close today is trouble. I might sell some bonds today to raise a little cash.
I don't consider 20% a large risk in stocks. If fear of a 20% drawdown scares you own too much stock. I don't own much stock because I can't stomach a 20% drawdown and also don't need that much risk either.
/\absolute elephant in the room for so many reasons.
Russell 2000 leading the way lower today by a lot. That's a bad sign.
$1,500.00 per drain is standard
subs are at the gouging point right now because they have hundreds of requests for bids no labor etc
which sucks for contractors and homeowners, subs I have been working with for 10 plus years are fair but new to me subs send out the fu price
got a foundation quote last fall it was twice the normal cost
and yeah, peak 7 don't get me started and the county gov't sorry you got caught up in their bs, been there done that too
oh and the stock market.............. propped up by huge debt false hopes companies paying too much to buy other companies just to raise their on paper value but cutting hundreds of jobs and businesses not making any money it can't last forever its all a sham because of cheap loans
From the January 2018 peak to today the annualized rate of return on the SP 500 is about 5%.
Interesting that gold is down 2%.
It took 14 years for the SP500 to get back to it's dotcom high.
Benny.
But will you be alive to see it?
Respectfully.
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