Well, I'm not allowed to delete this post, but, I can say, go fuck yourselves, everybody!
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Well, I'm not allowed to delete this post, but, I can say, go fuck yourselves, everybody!
sweet soon I'll be able to buy some land and start my way to baronhood
bwah!Quote:
Originally Posted by ak_powder_monkey
although i think you need serfs.
But Alan Greenspan is not the MAN any more:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chairma...ederal_Reserve
13. Alan Greenspan² (August 11, 1987 – January 31, 2006)
14. Ben Bernanke (February 1, 2006 – )
So I take it he made these remarks as a private citizen? Currently Ben Bernanke is the most powerful man in the world. I agree that Greenspan could still make markets tumble if he wanted to, but ... he ain't in charge anymore.
What an awesome time to start a new line of work as a mortgage broker! :(
I was hoping that Delta would fold so all the pilots and flight attendants would have to put their Park City condos and houses in old town on the market at the same time. I was willing to forfeit all my Delta FF miles for this. Unfortunately, it didn't happen last time it looked close, but hope springs eternal.
Well, TFA did say "post-retirment speech."Quote:
Originally Posted by skiing-in-jackson
One thing I will tell you - even now, he's got a lot more insight than any of us do, that's for sure. He's probably got more insight than Bernanke..
Benny's got the schadenfreude machine working again I see.
So I'm guessing the ex got the house, Benny?
bingo. but she can't touch the 401k.
Really, though, it might be. Hammer on the people with ARMs. They better refi and quick.Quote:
Originally Posted by Theodore
great blog on current real estate conditions
http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/
Quote:
Originally Posted by RootSkier
"The next big thing to worry about: foreclosures. It doesn’t seem like a source of anxiety yet, but the numbers are climbing. Keep the scale in perspective as you look at some of these articles from across the country. We are coming off a low base.
Sacramento: “We’re not seeing a lot of people at that foreclosure stage yet, but we’re sure seeing a lot of people who are headed that way,” said Jeff Tarbell, president of Sacramento-based ATM Mortgage.
Las Vegas: “Assistant Clark County Recorder Charles Harvey calls the spike in foreclosures significant. He said, ‘As the interest rate increased, we have seen an increase in the number of foreclosures.’” (Tip courtesy of Ben Jones at the Foreclosure Report blog. )
The economists I’ve talked to say that the bulk of adjustable-rate mortgages don’t start to trigger until next year. That’s when the nail-biting begins."
OK, that's some funny shit.Quote:
Originally Posted by Benny Profane
The company I work for has been around since before the boom, but the # of employees peaked around '04. Lots of refi's then and the buying boom. All those 3 year ARM's are going up and now there are 4 of us. My soon to be project is to go through all the files and try to get all those people into something better for them.Quote:
Originally Posted by RootSkier
vegas bad, very bad
What kind of moron ever thought the Vegas market could hold out?
Where I am, in MT, there is currently a serious biotech boom going on, one federal and one private, it is a big retirement/second home community, and the market never got as crazy. I think we are looking at a slight slowdown but no major crashes here.
I only know enough about lending to be dangerous. What exactly happens at the five year (or whenever) stage of an ARM? How much will interest rates go up, and how much are people paying now? Are there other costs that come due?Quote:
Originally Posted by Theodore
We have two mortgages (separate houses), one at 5.875 and one at 6. I would be shitting if my rates were going up but my property values weren't. :tdo13:
ARMs are set up so that the rate, in your case 5.875 and 6, stay the same for a set time period. 2 or 3 years is most common. These are reffered to as 2/28 or 3/27 ARMs. Fixed for 2 or 3 years, then variable with the market for the remainder of the mortgage.Quote:
Originally Posted by RootSkier
Different ARMs go off of different indexes for their rates. These can be t-bills, CD's, COFI, or LIBOR. In recent history(last decade or so) the COFI has been the most steady.
When the "fixed" period is over, they start adjusting. This usually means up, especially now, since most people bought or refi'd a few years ago when the rates bottomed out. They usually adjust every 6-12 months on a set formula for the new rate. A lot of them have limits or caps. This limits how much they can adjust in 1 period and also limits the lifetime adjustment.
For instance take a 2/28 ARM with 3/1/6 caps.
That means the first time it adjusts, it can't go up or down more than 3%, each adjustment after that can't move more than 1% and over the lifetime of the loan it can't vary by more than 6% of your original rate.
No other costs should come due. Only thing that should change is taxes. If your loan has a prepay clause in it and you prepay, then you pay a penalty for that, usually a sizable one at that.
Looking into a fixed rate might not be a bad idea with the market cooling off. Might want to talk to a local broker and see what they can offer. This should be free, and more knowledge never hurt no one....
Hope this helps.
thats where china comes in, I'll be a globalized baron :FIREdevil although I'll feel bad for taking away all the good serf jobs from americansQuote:
Originally Posted by Squatch
Quote:
Originally Posted by ak_powder_monkey
Slave master. Wait til the boys on teh ihatewhiteguys.com forums find out about this...
Thanks for the info. Ours are actually fixed. I wanted nothing to do with an ARM.Quote:
Originally Posted by Theodore
I guess my question was bad, though. What happens with an interest only ARM at 3 or 5 years? At some point, don't you have to start paying the principal? At that point, wouldn't your payment go up dramatically?
30 year fixed at 5 1/8. I'm happy.
According to the analysts we interviewed the crashes will be in the smaller markets, with NY, Boston, LA, DC, SF etc. still seeing gains, altho more modest than before.
Since I don't plan on moving out of my house until I retire I don't care, really. We're already up 30% in 3 years, which helps with the Home Equity line we'll need eventually for renovations, but other than that I don't need my house to make a shitton of moolah.... my first one did that!
Just asked my processor since he knows more than I. He said most are 10 year interest only. At that point you are essentially looking at a traditional 20 year amortized loan. Essentially you are paying $ for the sake of paying $ to live in a house. You make no headway into your debt at all. The shorter the term a mortgage is amortized over the less interest you pay, but the higher the payment(obviously).Quote:
Originally Posted by RootSkier
So, those poor bastards who got into a house for the sake of getting a house and have their financial picture set using their interest only loan are in for a painful wake up call when they start eating into the principle.
Vancouver market is insane. Up 80% in 5 years. I'm on track to be mortgage free in 3 years - I want that financial security. Planning on dumping other RE holdings and taking my profits. Maybe go buy some Dynafit Comforts or something.
Its just too nuts.
I would too. When I finally buy a house here in the next couple years I plan on paying it off ASAP. I HATE having debt.
such a dick.Quote:
Originally Posted by iceman
unless you live in a metro area that has had a ridiculously hot R.E. market you won't even know this is happening. Just ignor the NYT "The sky is falling" headlines and you'll be fine.
I'm rubber, you're glue...Quote:
Originally Posted by mr_gyptian
Seriously, haven't you been hearing Benny talk about this a lot lately? I figured some gentle ribbing was in order, he didn't take offense, why should you?
...or in my case, the bargain hunting. Bring it on. I'm in full vulture mode.Quote:
Originally Posted by Benny Profane
I actually have to salute your comedic timing.Quote:
Originally Posted by iceman
I do however like his chicken little rantings lately. he's posting like Frank Thomas was batting during his divorce.
So, I take it that you do not believe that a huge number of American households will be really, really hurt by even a minor slowdown in the housing market - which is all but inevitable? And that you further believe that the weakening of the US dollar (considered simply in this case as price inflation) will not compound this to make for more pain?Quote:
Originally Posted by mr_gyptian
Frank Thomas. The man who tried to make Michael Jordan a baseball player.
Has anyone read "The Millionare Next Door"? Good book, good advice. An important point - the WW2 parents of boomers carried little debt, and considered it a point of pride to have the mortgage paid off. Not borrowed against for "home improvements".
Unless the value of the home is jumping at 23.3% in one year like mine is. In that case, I'm using other peoples' money to print my own. Thanks Wells Fargo!Quote:
Originally Posted by Theodore
Quote:
Originally Posted by truth
FKNA - We are starting to see this happen here, I am actually lining up some out of state money partners/buyers because there is already more deals than I can handle.
I'm picking it up right after I finish Rich Dad, Poor Dad.:rolleyes:Quote:
Originally Posted by Benny Profane
Don't forget "Trust Fund Baby - I Don't Need No Stinking Job." It's on the shelf right next to "Titillating Tales of Trustafarians in the High Country".
Yeah, click your heels three times and wish really hard and maybe it'll be true.Quote:
Originally Posted by mr_gyptian
How can you possibly rationalize this point of view in light of the housing bubble, the amount of debt Americans have taken out of their homes to use as simple cash-flow (virtual annual raises), the large prooprtion of that debt that is variable rate, the amount that is virtually 100% of home value, and the increasing national debt???? Inquiring minds want to know.
The issue being raised in this thread is not a "sky is falling issue", it is an economic reality issue. If you want to stand in the way of a big slide, enjoy your ride...
Wanna buy a cool tulip?
Benny, I work and make more than you do. not only that, but I'm probably 20 years your junior. I also don't live in some suck ass midwestern town.Quote:
Originally Posted by Benny Profane
If I'm in amsterdam I'm not buying tulips. heh.Quote:
Originally Posted by spindrift
I didn't say I didn't think the R.E. market was going to pull back. I'm just saying that the "crash" will be a localized phenomenon. additionally, that it will be covered in the press like every one is Tom Joad. Finally, that Paul Krugman, Maureen Dowd, Nancy Pelosi, and Harry Reid will find some way to blame George Bush.
As they should. Although Nancy and Harry should eat their share too for being complicit in many of GWBs shenanigans while badmouthing him out the other side of their mouths.Quote:
Originally Posted by mr_gyptian
Bottom line though is that Krugman has nailed the big picture issue analysis dead on for the past few years. Watch how it plays out. He groks the real underlying economics - and is not blinded by the admin's BS. The pain many Americans will be feeling (and it will hurt) will largely tie to swapping a stock bubble for a housing bubble and the inevitable large decline in the dollar due to Bush-o-nomics -- that fine process of spending more and not taxing enough to cover it. So yeah, people should be blaming Bush and his administration, and a complicit congress,...when the real value of their homes and savings collapses.
Now is a great time to be sure you are not in the path of the economic tsunami being brought to you courtesy of GWB & company...,
swapping a stock bubble for a R.E. bubble? the real estate market on a macro level has been rising since Bush I was in office. I grant you that it has heated up over the past couple of years, but the Bay Area was en fuego in the late 90s but softened quite a bit after the internet stock crash. but to say people are swapping a stock investment/401k investment bubble for a real estate investment bubble is patently false. but, that must be why you read Paul "Enron will be bigger than 9/11" Krugman and agree with what he says.
you've left out the "Rich get Richer" spin.