Fear and Loathing, a Rat Flu Odyssey

Sounds like the US is following the Great Barrington Declaration; allow those who are at minimal risk of death to live their lives normally to build up immunity to the virus through natural infection, while better protecting those who are at highest risk.

https://gbdeclaration.org/

Only US is not really doing much to protect those at higher risk. Counterpoint today in the NYTimes; Public health experts are alarmed by a ‘herd immunity’ theory endorsed by Trump officials:

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/10...rump-officials

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Originally Posted by altasnob

Tourism is 8.5% Mexico's GDP versus around around 2% for Canada and 2.8% for US. Main reason why Canada is still keeping US out and Mexico aint.

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you don't think it has anything to do with the fact you have 4% of the worlds population and have booked 20% of the dead possibly because the commander in chief is possibly a fucking idiot ?

Another story providing counterpoint to GB declaration

https://m.youtube.com/watch?fbclid=I...&v=V0MamflGLlM

And GB’s take: https://thehill.com/homenews/state-w...NxVY1KVWxOYCZM

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Originally Posted by mfcf13

Nashville comes in second in the country for Covid cases (behind Vegas).

Oh, and Bobby Stainless is an easily offended Nashvillian who sometimes comes on this forum and pretends he is a skier.

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Source for that statistic? Asking because it is inaccurate.

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Originally Posted by Buster Highmen

When the flight fro Zurich landed at O'Hare, there was an incredible force of people in hazmat suits, taking the temperature of everyone getting off the plane and redirecting them through a maze of response tents and interviewers. Since I displayed no fever or symptoms, I just answered a few questions and was let through for my connecting flight.

So, given my purely anecdotal experience, there was a fantastic response at O'Hare on March 20th. Then, yes, I quarantined in my own house sun room for 2 weeks.

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I returned one day after Tri and 4-5 after buster and I had the same experience as tri. Was asked before boarding if I had been in Iran or China. Replied no and that was it. No questions or any other evaluation upon arrival in New York. Things changed a lot in those few days. Zurich airport was a zoo when I was leaving and buster posted pics of an empty airport on his departure. Too little too late.

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Originally Posted by Deebased

between 10/90 and 50/50 in April. Early antibody tests were showing a similar range.

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I actually meant a relationship between the rate of percent positive tests and the probable real infection rate. I think it's assumed that some common positivity rates in some places correlate with a ~10:1 ratio of actual infections to confirmed positive tests. And also that very low percent positive correlates with a lower ratio (and higher with higher) since "over-testing" the population should result in more of the actual cases being detected/less of them going undetected. Hence the goals of low positivity relative to tests given. But has anyone tried to quantify the relationship so we could guess, say, that a 30% positivity rate in a given place indicates ~15:1 real cases to detected cases vs. say, 10:1 at 10%?

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Originally Posted by teledad

Nevada at 37% but still having MAGA rallies:
https://mynews4.com/resources/media/...arsoncity1.jpg

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Don't know where you're pulling 37% as it's not true at all.
Attachment 344150

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Originally Posted by ill-advised strategy

Well, now I live in one of the most infectious places in the country.

Our local news always stretches to find a way to downplay it. The numbers have been going higher and higher. From when most days had nothing new and it was surprising to see 7 or 8 in a day to now 100+ daily, 200+ sometimes. Yesterday the news wouldn’t report the infection numbers, saying there was a problem with the numbers...but really it was just that there’s now like 500 new cases in our local prison and 250 new in the community...so their eyes just couldn’t believe the numbers, so they assumed the numbers weren’t right and reported “we’re waiting on the corrected numbers” instead.

My employer and coworkers have become fatigued with cleaning and masks. They never adopted masks in the office, only when out in public or when there was a board member or media or whatever around. The elderly and vulnerable coworkers who had been staying home in spring and summer when we had no cases are showing up to work again at the worst possible time.

I pick up employees from the hospital, they say it’s totally full in there.

A dialysis patient booked a ride from his luxury condo to dialysis today. Because you can’t safely get a bus to his condo, my dispatch decided to order me to go with a minivan. We haven’t been using those since covid, for obvious distancing reasons. I said no fucking way am I doing that...are you out of your god damn minds? Instead of correcting the minivan idea, they decided the problem was me, and they just sent our bus-cleaning janitor with the minivan instead. I saw her tonight walking around the bus garage just open-coughing, mask on her chin, no hand over the mouth, just open hacking for like 20 seconds. That’s the person they put in a minivan with a dialysis patient, that’s the person who walks through every bus “cleaning” while she hacks away open-coughing. It’s astonishing.

Every day at my wife’s work they lose more people to positive tests and quarantining...they’re running out of people to staff the store. Employees are almost surely coming in sick because they need the money.

There were two different people unmasked at the grocery store tonight.
We’re fucked here. It’s all going to shit.

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That's horrid. Shit Ill, good luck and try to stay safe. Other than that I'm speechless.

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Originally Posted by cdlv

Don't know where you're pulling 37% as it's not true at all.
Attachment 344150

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Agreed that it's not 37%, but it's hard to use any other adjective than the word "mess." "Mess" because of the complete lack of test volume and "mess" because the data they have is pointing to infection rates that easily support spread and not containment.

Second to last column is the percent positive among tests conducted. Last column is the total number of tests over the last three days.

Attachment 344166

I think the only thing that might snap people out of their COVID laziness is seeing more people dying, and it's going to happen. Maybe not like in the spring, but with this number of cases lots of people are going to die or at least be seriously ill. If Trump manages to win re-election, shortly thereafter (some) people might realize "huh, seems like Biden (and Fauci) was actually right about coronavirus."

Deaths didn't spike dramatically when cases spiked over the summer. Yes, people will continue to die, but I am not sure that enough people will die to change peoples' opinion. Deaths are currently flat. And yes, they lag, but will they really spike? It will take bodies in the street to change peoples' ingrained opinion.

Attachment 344174

My neighbor was squawking about how people aren't dying so the whole thing is just bullshit.

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Originally Posted by huckbucket

Agreed that it's not 37%, but it's hard to use any other adjective than the word "mess." "Mess" because of the complete lack of test volume and "mess" because the data they have is pointing to infection rates that easily support spread and not containment.

Second to last column is the percent positive among tests conducted. Last column is the total number of tests over the last three days.

Attachment 344166

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Not denying that it's a complete shit show, numbers have been steadily rising since reopening the bars in Clark Co.

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Originally Posted by altasnob

Deaths didn't spike dramatically when cases spiked over the summer. Yes, people will continue to die, but I am not sure that enough people will die to change peoples' opinion. Deaths are currently flat. And yes, they lag, but will they really spike? It will take bodies in the street to change peoples' ingrained opinion.

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Yes, in this country there will be plenty of people who will absolutely not change their minds. It's like global warming: no amount of evidence will ever convince them that it's something they need to worry about.

I do think deaths will increase substantially as we head into winter. Our current new cases trajectory doesn't show any evidence of flattening and we're only now getting into fall. I really don't see how we won't be at 100k cases per day within a few weeks.

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Originally Posted by gravitylover

My neighbor was squawking about how people aren't dying so the whole thing is just bullshit.

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Again with the binary point of view. You either die or it's no big deal and there's nothing in between. No longer term health consequences. No burden to the healthcare system. No increased exposure to the vulnerable. So myopic.

Deaths per cases depends partly on the population driving cases. A younger population was driving cases over the last few months but if an older population (or Jesus) takes the wheel again the likelihood is deaths per cases goes back up.

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Originally Posted by The AD

I think the only thing that might snap people out of their COVID laziness is seeing more people dying, and it's going to happen. Maybe not like in the spring, but with this number of cases lots of people are going to die or at least be seriously ill. If Trump manages to win re-election, shortly thereafter (some) people might realize "huh, seems like Biden (and Fauci) was actually right about coronavirus."

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Only if someone they personally know dies or spends an extended period in the hospital. 700-800 people are dying every day and no one seems perturbed.

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Originally Posted by Dantheman

Only if someone they personally know dies or spends an extended period in the hospital. 700-800 people are dying every day and no one seems perturbed.

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Correct. It needs to hit home to shake them from their torpor.

Brits are starting vaccine challenge trials
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...bec_story.html
The first phase of the trial will be giving different doses of virus to young, healthy, on-vaccinated quarantined volunteers to identify the minimum viral load needed to cause infection.
The second phase will test different vaccines. This part will start in late spring--presumably after there are already vaccines already in use.

I'm confused and starting to get violently pissed over the rampant herd immunity idiocy. Can any one actually point to a good example of HI controlling a life threatening disease? Isn't the fact that no such thing occurred with small pox, measles, etc the very reason we stumbled on the miracle of vaccines in the first place????

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Originally Posted by PB

I'm confused and starting to get violently pissed over the rampant herd immunity idiocy. Can any one actually point to a good example of HI controlling a life threatening disease? Isn't the fact that no such thing occurred with small pox, measles, etc the very reason we stumbled on the miracle of vaccines in the first place????

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exactly

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Originally Posted by The AD

I think the only thing that might snap people out of their COVID laziness is seeing more people dying, and it's going to happen. Maybe not like in the spring, but with this number of cases lots of people are going to die or at least be seriously ill. If Trump manages to win re-election, shortly thereafter (some) people might realize "huh, seems like Biden (and Fauci) was actually right about coronavirus."

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Fauci is being gagged right now by the Trump administration so hopefully he is sitting in his office working on the plan what to do next if/when Biden gets in

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Originally Posted by PB

I'm confused and starting to get violently pissed over the rampant herd immunity idiocy. Can any one actually point to a good example of HI controlling a life threatening disease? Isn't the fact that no such thing occurred with small pox, measles, etc the very reason we stumbled on the miracle of vaccines in the first place????

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There is none in the history of humanity. Any and all diseases to be snuffed from circulation in people have done so by isolation or vaccination.

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Originally Posted by PB

I'm confused and starting to get violently pissed over the rampant herd immunity idiocy. Can any one actually point to a good example of HI controlling a life threatening disease? Isn't the fact that no such thing occurred with small pox, measles, etc the very reason we stumbled on the miracle of vaccines in the first place????

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It's been stated many times that herd immunity has never been achieved without a vaccine, but unfortunately there's a qualifier that gets left off: it's never happened once a disease was endemic. Diseases with minimal spread can die out very easily. R0 shrank to 0 for SARS thanks largely to societal precautions coming before it had a chance to reach any of the real idiots. And that's just the sort of miracle said idiots think will happen for them with zero societal shift.

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Originally Posted by jono

It's been stated many times that herd immunity has never been achieved without a vaccine, but unfortunately there's a qualifier that gets left off: it's never happened once a disease was endemic. Diseases with minimal spread can die out very easily. R0 shrank to 0 for SARS thanks largely to societal precautions coming before it had a chance to reach any of the real idiots. And that's just the sort of miracle said idiots think will happen for them with zero societal shift.

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But, that's not herd immunity.