https://mtnweekly.com/wp-content/upl...PE-734x349.png
I took some time to put together a list of 12 places you will find great snow this winter. NOAA's latest ENCSO report came out on Sep 16, 2017.
Recent La Niña years include 2016-2017; 2011-2012; 2010-2011; 2007-2008; and 2000-2001
Some fun images and graphs as well.
https://mtnweekly.com/sports/snowboa...hat-is-la-nina
it's a happening - NOAA Forecast "U.S. Winter Outlook: NOAA forecasters predict cooler, wetter North and warmer, drier South"
http://www.noaa.gov/media-release/us...er-drier-south
Early winter outlook is 'cold and snowy'
"Mountain Weather / By Jim Woodmencey Oct 25, 2017
Jim Woodmencey is the chief meteorologist at MountainWeather.com and has been forecasting the weather in Jackson Hole and the Teton Mountains for more than 20 years.
First things first: Don’t quote me on any of this.
I’m going to share the latest outlooks for the coming winter, but it’s important to keep in mind that these are prognostications that extend well into the future. They are opinions from different sources, so please take them with that proverbial grain of salt.
Second, I am merely the messenger. These are not my forecasts. You may interpret the information however you see fit. I’ve noticed people often pick the outlook they like best and run with that, spreading it as if it were gospel.
Reliable predictions?
A friend recently forwarded me an email advertisement from a heli-skiing business in Canada to see if I agreed with the message.
“NOAA La Nina Forecast: La Nina 2018 Stronger than 2017!” the ad announced.
It went on to say that because last winter was a weak La Nina and the powder was epic, this year’s stronger La Nina will make 2018 even more epic.
Whoa, slow down a minute. Let’s analyze what the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration actually reported and review last winter’s weather.
The El Nino Southern Oscillation, also known as ENSO, is the official term for describing which phase the Equatorial Pacific is in, temperature-wise. El Nino, the warmer phase, generally brings warmer and drier conditions across the northern Rockies during winter. La Nina, the cooler phase, typically brings cooler and wetter conditions over the northern Rockies.
We began last winter in a neutral phase, or “No Nino.” That was followed by a weak La Nina for a couple of months, and then it went back to neutral in February.
As if you could forget, Jackson Hole had an epic winter.
The previous winter, 2015-16, was dubbed the “Super El Nino” winter, and Jackson Hole ended at or just above average snowfall. California and the Sierra Nevada mountains, which usually do well with snowfall during an El Nino, were in a drought that El Nino.
The Sierras are usually warmer and drier during a La Nina, and they broke some all-time snowfall records last winter.
Both of the past two winters fell outside what you would usually expect with these phases of the El Nino Southern Oscillation, making the ENSO a less reliable predictor of big snowfall.
Here is the official word from NOAA on the current state of the ENSO:
“The atmosphere over the tropical Pacific was La Nina-like in September, but the required cooling of the ocean surface was interrupted in the second half of the month. However, the deeper waters in the east cooled further, and forecasters say the odds of at least a weak La Nina by late fall or winter are 55 to 65 percent.”
To be clear, I will repeat that last part: The odds of a weak La Nina are 55 to 65 percent. That’s a better-than-a-coin-flip chance that we might see at least a weak La Nina this winter. Maybe we’ll even see a somewhat stronger, yet still weak, La Nina than we did last year. I guess to one Canadian ad writer’s interpretation that means definitely more powder.
Little better than 50-50
Let’s see what NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center has to say. I prefer to use its “experimental” and “unofficial” two-class outlooks.
Here is how you interpret the maps above, as explained on the Climate Prediction Center’s website: “The contours on the map show the total probability (in percent) of two categories, above, indicated by the letter A, and below, indicated by the letter B. At any point on the map the sum of the probabilities of these two categories is 100 percent.
“For any particular location and season these two categories are defined from the 30 observations from 1981 to 2010. The coldest or driest half (15 years) define the B category, the warmest or wettest half (15 years) defines the A category.
“When the forecasters decide that one of the extreme categories, say above A, is the most likely one, they assign probabilities which exceed 50 percent to that category. This means that the chance of the opposite category is the remaining part of the total (100 percent).
“In regions where the forecasters have no indications favoring either A or B, the chance of these two categories is defined to be 50 percent each, and the region is labeled ‘EC,’ which stands for equal chances.”
Say what?
Simply put: What it looks like to me is that we have a little better than a 50-50 chance of being warmer than normal for December, January and February over western Wyoming. And a little better than a 60 percent probability of being wetter than normal. During the winter that could translate to snowier than normal.
What the Old Farmer’s Almanac says
Last, but certainly not least, the 2018 edition of the Old Farmer’s Almanac shows all of the northern and central Rockies solidly painted on its winter outlook map under “Cold and Snowy.”
There. Done. Let’s run with that forecast for this winter."
Say it ain't so. Exciting to see the more established weather guys talking a big winter too. Get stoked
http://www.jhnewsandguide.com/opinio...61eb72bba.html
Click baits u r anal cakes
Spam bump
will
NOT
click
on
media301's links
I noted that you have Schweitzer in your listing, which is probably a good as La Nina years are typically off the charts. One point, though, is that you stated that the open gate policy provides access to 200 acres of back country.... A whopping 200 acres? Wow...
Actually, you can access virtually limitless acreage out of the gates. You might want to restate that.
Better yet. Stop clicking that shitbag's links.Quote:
Originally Posted by GoldMember
Do not click Spammy McSpamface's link above. It might give you herpes.Quote:
Originally Posted by media310
Tons of snow in the Tetons
http://mtnweekly.com/wp-content/uplo...1/Togwotee.jpg
this winter will be one for the record books.
Bridger-Teton Avalanche Center: http://www.jhavalanche.org/viewOther?area=tog
La Nina moves in for the winter
November 9, 2017 According to NOAA - This is a what a typical winter La Nina pattern looks like as it affects the United States.
A La Nina climate pattern has arrived and is likely to persist through the winter, according to an advisory issued by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center today. Scientists say there is a greater than 50-percent chance La Nina will also be in place February through April 2018.
This is the second winter in a row with a La Nina, and like last year, forecasters expect this one to be weak. Last year, this weather phenomenon extended from July 2016 to January 2017 before a return to neutral El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions.
La Nina: What it is, and what can we expect
La Nina (translated from Spanish as “little girl”) is a natural ocean-atmospheric phenomenon marked by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific Ocean near the equator, the opposite of El Nino (“little boy”).
Typical La Nina patterns during winter include above-average precipitation and colder-than-average temperatures along the northern tier of the U.S. and below-normal precipitation and drier conditions across the South. NOAA’s 2017 Winter Outlook anticipated that a weak La Nina was likely to develop. Therefore, significant changes are not expected when the Winter Outlook is updated on November 16.
http://www.noaa.gov/news/la-nina-moves-in-for-winter
now pay attention to the resorts listed in the article at the top of this thread. No excuses to not me balls / nipple deep in powder all winter long
https://mtnweekly.com/wp-content/upl...er-Outlook.jpg
According to the National Weather Service on September 17, 2017 there was increasing chance (~55-60%) of La Niña during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2017-18. As of November 16, 2017 that has now be changed to a (~65%-75% chance) of a La Niña winter.
Grand Targhee Opening Day
It is currently warm, which is a good thing. Winter will return like a LION..
Prospects look good for lovers of powder!Quote:
Originally Posted by media310
Latest UPDATE:
Synopsis: La Niña is likely (exceeding ~80%) through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2017-18, with a transition to ENSO-neutral most likely during the mid-to-late spring.
La Niña strengthened during the past month, as indicated by an increasingly prominent pattern of below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. The latest weekly Niño-3.4 index value was -0.8°C, with the easternmost Niño-3 and Niño-1+2 indices at or below -1.0°C during much of the month [Fig. 2]. Sub-surface temperature anomalies weakened slightly during November, but remained significantly negative [Fig. 3] due to the anomalously shallow depth of the thermocline across the central and eastern Pacific [Fig. 4]. The atmospheric circulation over the tropical Pacific Ocean also reflected La Niña, with convection suppressed near the International Date Line and enhanced over Indonesia [Fig. 5]. The low-level trade winds were stronger than average over the western and central Pacific, with anomalous westerly winds at upper-levels. Overall, the ocean and atmosphere system reflects La Niña.
La Niña is predicted to persist through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2017-18 by nearly all models in the IRI/CPC plume [Fig. 6] and in the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME; [Fig. 7]). Based on the latest observations and forecast guidance, forecasters favor the peak of a weak-to-moderate La Niña during the winter (3-month Niño-3.4 values between -0.5°C and -1.5°C). In summary, La Niña is likely (exceeding ~80%) through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2017-18, with a transition to ENSO-neutral most likely during the mid-to-late spring (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).
La Niña is anticipated to affect temperature and precipitation across the United States during the upcoming months (the 3-month seasonal temperature and precipitation outlooks will be updated on Thursday December 21st). The outlooks generally favor above-average temperatures and below-median precipitation across the southern tier of the United States, and below-average temperatures and above-median precipitation across the northern tier of the United States.
This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts are also updated monthly in the Forecast Forum of CPC's Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 11 January 2018 . To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.
it's currently warm, and that ain't a bad thing. Get ready for a record breaking winter. Mt. Baker should be tasty this week, 50"+
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/ana...ensodisc.shtml
CURRENT SNOW TOTALS
24 HOUR
15"
BASE DEPTH
75"
YEAR TO DATE
169"
Most likely we Targhee will hit 200" before the year is done. What a great way to kick off the holidays and a new year. https://www.grandtarghee.com/the-mountain/snow-report/
Today was a great day for a tour.
ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory update as of 12/26/17
La Niña conditions are present.*
Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across the
central and eastern Pacific Ocean.
http://mtnweekly.com/wp-content/uplo...-2017-2018.jpg
http://mtnweekly.com/wp-content/uplo...-2017-2018.jpg
This will be a winter you tell your kids about...
past 90 days
http://mtnweekly.com/wp-content/uplo...and-precip.jpg
Warm and wet just the way we like it. Que the 12"+ overnight dumps..
http://mtnweekly.com/wp-content/uplo...d-wet-snow.jpg
January 2018 La Niña update: summiting the peak
Author: Tom Di Liberto
January 11, 2018
Now that we are smack dab in the middle of winter in the Northern Hemisphere, the time of year when ENSO tends to have its more reliable impacts in the United States, it’s go-time for paying attention to what’s going on in the Pacific. And the latest CPC/IRI ENSO forecast says…[drum roll please]…La Niña is here to stay for this winter with a 85-95% probability before transitioning to ENSO-Neutral conditions during the spring.
https://www.climate.gov/sites/defaul...D_SSTA_620.jpg
Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly, La Nina, ENSO
December 2017 sea surface temperature departure from the 1981-2010 average. Graphic by climate.gov; data from NOAA’s Environmental Visualization Lab.
Settle down class, time to go over what’s going on in the Pacific
We are certainly in the midst of a La Niña event as sea surface temperatures across the central/equatorial Pacific continue to remain colder than average. In fact, in December the SSTs in the Niño3.4 region—the box in the Pacific Ocean where we look for La Niña or El Niño conditions—were around 1°C cooler than average for the second consecutive month. Three-month average anomalies of 1°C mark the cutoff between weak and moderate ENSO events, putting this La Niña on the cusp of a moderate event, should the anomalies last one more month.
Of course, we can’t forget that La Niña is a coupled ocean-atmospheric system. So what is the atmosphere doing?
For the month of December, the thunderstorm activity across the equatorial Pacific looked pretty La Niña-like with reduced precipitation near the date-line and farther east while enhanced precipitation fell across the broader Maritime continent in the western Pacific Ocean. Backing this up, the Equatorial Southern Oscillation Index, which monitors areas closely related to ENSO along the equator, measured 0.9 for December. Positive values reflect lower than average pressure in the western Pacific and higher than average pressure in the central/eastern Pacific Ocean (2).
https://www.climate.gov/sites/defaul...an2018_620.png
subsurface temperature anomaly, Pacific Ocean, ENSO, La Nina
Departure from average of the surface and subsurface tropical Pacific sea temperature averaged over 5-day periods centered on January 3, 2018. The vertical axis is depth below the surface (meters) and the horizontal axis is longitude, from the western to eastern tropical Pacific. This cross-section is right along the equator.
If there is one thing to pay attention to moving forward, though, it’s the eastward movement along the equator of warmer than average water at depth in the ocean. This could eventually undercut the ongoing La Niña in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean and help to bring an end to the event.
Pop quiz on last month’s post: what do we mean by "double-dip" La Niña?
As Emily noted last month, this year’s La Niña followed closely behind the previous La Niña, which weakly petered out by Winter 2017. This is called a double-dip La Niña and can be seen clearly in the Hovmöller image above of the heat content in the equatorial Pacific. The 2016-2018 double dipping—here it’s not a party foul—is represented by the two areas of colder than average ocean heat content that sandwich a brief period of warmer than average conditions.
Heat Content, Pacific Ocean, ENSO, La Nina
Heat content in the upper few hundred meters of the tropical Pacific near the equator (5°N-5°S) from January 28, 2016 (top of image) through January 3, 2018 (bottom of image) compared to the 1981-2010 average. The western Pacific is on the left; the eastern Pacific is on the right. Each row of the image shows a 5-day average. Scan the image from top to bottom, and you can see the "double dip" La Niña (two areas of colder than average temperatures) in the central-eastern Pacific. (Still not quite sure what you're looking at? Read more about Hovmoller diagrams.) NOAA Climate.gov image, based on data provided by the Climate Prediction Center.
However, it’s that brief period of warming that makes this double dip so unique. There have been 7 double-dip La Niña’s on record back to 1950 but none that warmed that much in between. Does this have some over-arching meaning? Not necessarily. But it does reflect an important point about our knowledge of ENSO.
December-February temperatures compared to the 1981-2010 average during each La Niña winter since records began in 1950. Gray lines under the maps indicate event strength: strong (dark gray), moderate (medium gray), and weak (light gray). NOAA Climate.gov image based on climate division data from NOAA ESRL.
While we constantly harp on the idea that no two La Niñas or El Niños are alike, it’s important to also remember that we simply do not have a ton of events to look back on. After all, who’s to say that the evolution of this double-dip La Niña is so rare when we’ve only documented 7 cases?
And this is also true for those images of what a La Niña winter might bring to the United States. As shown in previous articles, there is considerable variability when it comes to the temperature and precipitation patterns during a La Niña winter. The figure we often look at is an average of all of those events, but we don’t know whether the number of events we have in our historical record fully encapsulates the possibilities. This is yet another reason why we issue our outlooks in terms of probabilities.
ENSO, La Nina, NMME, Forecast,
Climate model forecasts for the Niño3.4 Index, from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME). Darker purple envelope shows the range of 68% of all model forecasts; lighter purple shows the range of 95% of all model forecasts. NOAA Climate.gov image from CPC data.
Your homework: what’s going to happen to La Niña this year
But enough looking back. Let’s look forward. Dynamical models are confident that La Niña will continue during the Northern Hemisphere winter. Although, it does appear to have peaked in strength as expected because ENSO events typically peak during the winter. As we move into the spring, there is considerable uncertainty as to the direction of ENSO. And by the summer, the model forecasts show quite a range of potential outcomes with some models forecasting an El Niño, some predicting Neutral, while others expect La Niña. This sort of uncertainty is not uncommon the farther we look into the future. Hopefully, as we approach spring and summer, this uncertainty will decrease. And I promise, you can follow along with us in the ENSO blog.
Wait, we still have 10 minutes left? Alright, here’s a video to watch on La Niña.
Footnotes
(1) Boo Tom! Where’s Emily? Emily is currently with thousands of other meteorologists at the annual meeting of the American Meteorological Society and therefore has handed off blogging duties to me, the author of such high energy posts like three separate articles on how we verify forecasts. I know…It’s not ideal.
(2) However, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) which measures the pressure differences between Tahiti and Darwin, Australia, fell from a La Niña reflecting value of 0.9 in November to a neutral -0.1 value in December. Because the SOI uses locations that are not directly along the equator, these numbers could be influenced by other atmospheric phenomena related to the mid-latitudes and unrelated to ENSO. And in fact, we had an MJO event throughout December, which may have influenced the SOI.
~ If you aren't skiing good pow this winter, not sure what to tell ya?
LA NIÑA ADVISORY
Forecasters believe the ongoing weak-to-moderate La Niña is currently peaking and will weaken into the spring. The strength of an event isn't strongly linked to the strength of the impacts in the U.S., but strength does increase the likelihood that at least some level of the typical impacts will be felt. The next update will be on February 8.
1/29/18
La Niña conditions are present.*
Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.
La Niña is likely (~85-95%) through Northern Hemisphere winter, with a transition to ENSO-neutral expected during the spring.*
http://mtnweekly.com/wp-content/uplo...ok-La-Nina.jpg
The PNW is a good bet for snow.
Continued good news for the PNW/Inland NW! Next week is forecast for above average temps here but I am hoping the longer term forecast shown holds. Could be a stellar three months to what's already been a pretty good year.
http://mtnweekly.com/wp-content/uplo...Range-Maps.gif
If you're not skiing some of the best snow of your life this year?? Maybe you haven't been to the PNW or BC or well follow the maps, follow the map.
This weekend looks especially tasty.
Snow 'forecasting' is sooooo hawt right now.
Get your chores and shopping done while you can.
http://mtnweekly.com/wp-content/uplo...3/wet-snow.jpg
"Well, she went up to her room where she sang her faithful tune"
Gitty up.
This season is going to end (or hold around) like a LION.
http://mtnweekly.com/wp-content/uplo...03/weather.jpg
4/3/18 will be legendary or the day after...
The only snow forecast you need.
Sat PM - Sunday AM - 10"
Sun PM - Monday AM - 6"
Tuesday - Dry
Wens Am - Fri PM - 25"
Sat AM - Sunday - 9"
50" by 4/9 * with locally higher amounts :)