1) Your probably not happy with spatial distribution, isolated vs. specific. et all.
You can have specific, widespread problems (that may be easy to avoid, stay off the sunny slopes)
Non-specific, isolated problems sound scarier (the wind destroyed most of the surface hoar, also the wind shifted from the south to the north as the storm rolled in, so good luck finding it)
But then you say likelihood is a function spatial distribution, but you never give us the function.