I think shits getting better. (economy)

We do quite a bit of collection, foreclosure and repossession work at our office. Our volume is way up right now. Doing at least 2-3 foreclosures a week, many on residential, mobile homes, and several large commercial projects. Tons of general collection work.

I do a lot of construction work and its upside down right now. Tons of contractors stiffing subs and materialmen right now. Banks cutting off loans midstream on a construction project, killing the project, stiffing the owner, contractor, subs and materialmen. The ability for a contractor to bond a project now has become almost non-existent. Contractors have been bidding jobs at or below cost, and relying on their line of credit and change orders to make up the difference, and its not happening. When the LOC runs out, they belly up.

Still tough times around here.


Ken

Hey, profits are down at the great vampire squid, Goldman Sachs. If they can't figure out how to suck money out of the economy, times must be really fucked up.

Bumpin this cuz things are a changing, at least in my world. In the past year I have had three friends lose their businesses and fortunes and the way of life they have come to know. These are folks who have had businesses for many years and did not just make a bad move, they lost tens of millions of dollars and hundreds of people lost good paying jobs. As I watched from the sidelines thinking it sucks to be you, I thought maybe I should look at my shit and see where I'm at. Fuck I'm sliding too. I looked at my insurance costs of the things I own, way up. Borrowed money at the same bank I have done business with for 25 years, they blinked at giving me a loan. Shit, I've got good credit and borrowed hundreds of thousands of $ and always paid it back without a problem. A loan that five years ago I could have done with a phone call at noon and had the dough by three that day, turned into a microscope up the ass , for what purpose I know not. Fuck, I told the wife I might have to get a job, she laughed, I'm afraid the poor girl does'nt know how bad it 's gettin.
End rant.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by LeeLau

I hate to take Benny douchebags side but I think this uptick masks serious problems with the US economy. I don't particularly care because i've got no kids and could give a shit about the next generation. Dealflow is increasing and i increasingly turn down more and more work which would impede a lifetime of hedonistic biking and skiing so yah, anecdotally and personally it is getting better but its getting better in the sense that the old hooker who should have been shipped out to pasture got a ham reconditioning kind of better.

all I can hope for is that the Chinese economy/bubble doesn't blow up for at least another 10 years and that it continues to support the Canuck economy. Oh and perhaps if they allow naked shorting of listed Chinese companies -that would be wonderful.

But to answer your question seriously Cono. Yes in this short term things are looking better

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fuck the chinese....






























thats for not caring about my kids generation:fmicon:

I debated whether or not to write today. To be completely honest I feel as if I have said as much as I can and don’t want to start sounding like a broken record. That said, we have clearly entered the next stage in this tragic circus called the global monetary and financial system death spiral. The final stage comes when the system consumes itself as a result of its refusal to reform and we are there now. The fact that most people are completely unaware of it or have such strong “normalcy bias” they can’t see what is directly in front of their faces is immaterial. It is here, it is irreversible, and it will unleash a cyclone of chaos and confusion that will leave many literally suspended in disbelief as the entire false paradigm most of humanity has lived under for their entire existence is washed away forever.

Last week, I wrote about what is happening in Egypt and what it means. The key point I want to emphasize is that there is no going back from where we are. The notion of stocking up on the limited food and resources available today is no longer theoretical for governments it is a matter of survival. While many wake up in cold sweats with the memories of 2008’s commodity crash and the concurrent U.S. dollar rally fresh in their minds, these nightmares are misplaced. The U.S. dollar has been hyper-inflated since 2008 and the only thing that has kept commodities under wraps has been the absence of a sudden and violent mobilization of those dollars into real goods. Since so many of these dollars are sitting at the central banks of governments around the world, they key was always what would spark governments to mobilize those reverses. The spark has been food supply shocks and revolution at the periphery of the American empire. The gun is cocked, the bullets are cold and the heretofore benign tumor that we call the dollar will puke its malignancy all over the world at once in desperate attempts to own something that will have value in the next monetary system. The days of governments playing nice with one another is long over. This is the survival stage and every decision that is made from officials from here on out will be entirely self-serving. You want to go long protectionism. Globalization is dead.

So now I want to discuss the Korean Won. For a very long time I have maintained that we would know we are at the big turning point when the Asia currencies start to properly break out versus the U.S. dollar. Asian central banks and many others have been resisting a major appreciation of their currencies for two major reasons. First, their entire economies have been based on the export to the West model. Although this makes no sense any longer as they are the creditors and those in the West are the debtors, old habits are hard to break. Secondly, China has refused to budge in any meaningful way and so the other nations don’t want to give China a free ride. If China was forced to appreciate in a big way all the other Asian nations would immediately follow suit. I always like to look at this Won-Dollar cross since South Korea is one of those exporting nations that imports virtually all of its resources. So as resource prices surge and export prices do not keep up the terms of trade start going against them hard. One option to fight this that has been resisted is a strengthening currency. I have always said at some point they will be forced to bite the bullet. As you can see from the chart below the Won has recently strengthened considerably and is close to some serious resistance (the chart is inverted).
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/mik...d-death-spiral

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Originally Posted by liv2ski

The gun is cocked, the bullets are cold and the heretofore benign tumor that we call the dollar will puke its malignancy all over the world at once in desperate attempts to own something that will have value in the next monetary system. The days of governments playing nice with one another is long over. This is the survival stage and every decision that is made from officials from here on out will be entirely self-serving. You want to go long protectionism. Globalization is dead.

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Ok, let's assume that you're 100% correct. How does a regular shmoe with a job and a mortgage and a kid and small retirement nest egg "use" that info?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Danno

Ok, let's assume that you're 100% correct. How does a regular shmoe with a job and a mortgage and a kid and small retirement nest egg "use" that info?

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that's zero hedge, btw. buy wheelbarrows so you can buy a beer
http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2266/...fcbe766af0.jpg

depends what that "regular schmoe" does

Nature's first green is gold,
Her hardest hue to hold.
Her early leaf's a flower;
But only so an hour.
Then leaf subsides to leaf.
So Eden sank to grief,
So dawn goes down to day.
Nothing gold can stay.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Danno

Ok, let's assume that you're 100% correct. How does a regular shmoe with a job and a mortgage and a kid and small retirement nest egg "use" that info?

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Good question. Some would say to buy physical gold and silver not ETFs. I haven't done that. I have been looking at ways to short the US Dollar as I do believe it is just starting to tank. Plenty of ETFs that can do that for you. I am also looking at ETFs that increase in value as rates increase, as I am positive that is around the corner in a big way. Once that happens, look to short the S&P 500 index. Lots of leveraged ETFs to do that as I am certain the stock market will tank at some point regardless of Helicoptor Bens pumping of it.
Have food for 3-6 months stored, a fresh water source would be a great fucking idea, but I don't have that. A generator with fuel for it is a great idea as would a solar installation on your home so the grid having rolling blackouts doesn't goof you up. And Jers personal favorite. Guns and lots of ammo in case people get fucking crazy for a period of time.
Things will calm down over time, but when the SHTF, you need to be self sufficient for sometime. Whether we will be able to protect our assets is a huge unknown. I know how to profit from certain developments, but if everything goes to shit, will anyone pay up when you want to withdraw your money? Many people say no. The truly paranoid have cashed in IRAs/401k plans, have taken all their money out of the banks and bought gold and silver. Where to store it is a good question. In your back yard may be a bad idea:wink:

Meanwhile IBM hits all time highs almost daily. I started buying pimco income investments every day the bonds are down starting last Tuesday. I just don't see the ten year note going much over 4% this year. Corporate bond funds are up 7% on the year!

If the reaction to employment tomorrow is good and we clear 1315 with momentum next stop is SPX 1400. Companies are one of the only assets that have real value. I'm not 100% long but not having exposure to equity is very risky if you expect any kind of return.

It must be odd, rooting for the world to end.

only 36K new jobs in jan. wall st bloodsuckers were forecasting a gain of 140,000+.

dolts on cnbc blaming bad weather...lol...RALLY TIME!!!!

Advertising industry here. Hearing that budgets aren't at 2008 levels, but starting to come back somewhat.

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Originally Posted by SKIORFORGETIT

Advertising industry here. Hearing that budgets aren't at 2008 levels, but starting to come back somewhat.

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Because banks, autos, and financial institutions are released from their TARP restrictions.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by iceman

It must be odd, rooting for the world to end.

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I don't think he believes half of what he preaches or should I say what he cut and pastes. Just likes be contrarian, thinks it makes himself look smart.

Hey, there was one bright spot in the jobs report. 10,000 jobs lost in financial services.

That's a step in the right direction.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by 4matic

I'm not 100% long but not having exposure to equity is very risky if you expect any kind of return.

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Third straight week of significant domestic equity mutual fund inflows. You have a lot of investors under allocated to equities that are going to have to creep back into the market. Not to mention some under funded pensions that will need to increase risk exposures.

Couple this with high corporate balance sheet cash and an additional $400 billion of private equity capital on the sidelines (with leverage closer to $1.5-2 trillion) M&A activity is going to pick up and help drive higher equity valuations.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Missing Sock

Third straight week of significant domestic equity mutual fund inflows. You have a lot of investors under allocated to equities that are going to have to creep back into the market. Not to mention some under funded pensions that will need to increase risk exposures.

Couple this with high corporate balance sheet cash and an additional $400 billion of private equity capital on the sidelines (with leverage closer to $1.5-2 trillion) M&A activity is going to pick up and help drive higher equity valuations.

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S&P raised there earnings and price targets this week. Bull camp is getting crowded..

“The [earnings] growth forecast for 2011 is 15%. As the Beatles song goes, ‘It’s getting better all the time,’ ” he said in an interview.

Stovall is using a $96-a-share “bottom up” analysts’ estimate for S&P 500 earnings for 2011. “In the past two months, it has gone higher,” he added.

In December, Stovall predicted the S&P would reach 1,315 this year, but he recently upped that significantly, too. “Our new target,” he told me, “is 1,370. We’re looking for about a 9% price appreciation for the full year.”

Really NA has a huge advantage right now. The cost of natural gas in NA is less than half what it is in Europe. Even the price of oil is lower than the world price due to increased supply from Alberta tar sands. You guys just have to learn to love the sands rather than bitching about it.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by 4matic

Because banks, autos, and financial institutions are released from their TARP restrictions.

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I do not claim to be an expert on the economy, but I am not even talking about those type of advertisers.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by SKIORFORGETIT

I do not claim to be an expert on the economy, but I am not even talking about those type of advertisers.

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I read a WSJ article yesterday that advertising rates are almost back to normal and it was the big banks funding lots of the Super Bowl hospitality.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by TNKen

We do quite a bit of collection, foreclosure and repossession work at our office. Our volume is way up right now. Doing at least 2-3 foreclosures a week, many on residential, mobile homes, and several large commercial projects. Tons of general collection work.

I do a lot of construction work and its upside down right now. Tons of contractors stiffing subs and materialmen right now. Banks cutting off loans midstream on a construction project, killing the project, stiffing the owner, contractor, subs and materialmen. The ability for a contractor to bond a project now has become almost non-existent. Contractors have been bidding jobs at or below cost, and relying on their line of credit and change orders to make up the difference, and its not happening. When the LOC runs out, they belly up.

Still tough times around here.


Ken

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by bushman

Bumpin this cuz things are a changing, at least in my world. In the past year I have had three friends lose their businesses and fortunes and the way of life they have come to know. These are folks who have had businesses for many years and did not just make a bad move, they lost tens of millions of dollars and hundreds of people lost good paying jobs. As I watched from the sidelines thinking it sucks to be you, I thought maybe I should look at my shit and see where I'm at. Fuck I'm sliding too. I looked at my insurance costs of the things I own, way up. Borrowed money at the same bank I have done business with for 25 years, they blinked at giving me a loan. Shit, I've got good credit and borrowed hundreds of thousands of $ and always paid it back without a problem. A loan that five years ago I could have done with a phone call at noon and had the dough by three that day, turned into a microscope up the ass , for what purpose I know not. Fuck, I told the wife I might have to get a job, she laughed, I'm afraid the poor girl does'nt know how bad it 's gettin.
End rant.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by 4matic

Meanwhile IBM hits all time highs almost daily. I started buying pimco income investments every day the bonds are down starting last Tuesday. I just don't see the ten year note going much over 4% this year. Corporate bond funds are up 7% on the year!

If the reaction to employment tomorrow is good and we clear 1315 with momentum next stop is SPX 1400. Companies are one of the only assets that have real value. I'm not 100% long but not having exposure to equity is very risky if you expect any kind of return.

---

Quote:

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Originally Posted by 4matic

S&P raised there earnings and price targets this week. Bull camp is getting crowded..

“The [earnings] growth forecast for 2011 is 15%. As the Beatles song goes, ‘It’s getting better all the time,’ ” he said in an interview.

Stovall is using a $96-a-share “bottom up” analysts’ estimate for S&P 500 earnings for 2011. “In the past two months, it has gone higher,” he added.

In December, Stovall predicted the S&P would reach 1,315 this year, but he recently upped that significantly, too. “Our new target,” he told me, “is 1,370. We’re looking for about a 9% price appreciation for the full year.”

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These quotes seem to illustrates the divergence in the US economy.
Large and midsize companies with multinational income and access to capital are able to grow.
The small regional and local companies are seeing increased pricing pressure and access to capital is onerous or non-existent.
Not that this is anything new, the early ninties was similar to todays credit climate and the early 2000's credit was stupid easy.
It's like a rollorcoaster and the ride just keeps getting bigger and faster.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by 4matic

I read a WSJ article yesterday that advertising rates are almost back to normal and it was the big banks funding lots of the Super Bowl hospitality.

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no comment as I do not know shit about tv advertising.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by skiballs

These quotes seem to illustrates the divergence in the US economy.
Large and midsize companies with multinational income and access to capital are able to grow.
The small regional and local companies are seeing increased pricing pressure and access to capital is onerous or non-existent.
Not that this is anything new, the early ninties was similar to todays credit climate and the early 2000's credit was stupid easy.
It's like a rollorcoaster and the ride just keeps getting bigger and faster.

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When you give away literally TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS to big banks, this result should not come as a surprise.

It's the biggest scam in history -- an epochal transfer of wealth from the middle class to the super-rich. This is not an accident: it is a deliberately engineered result.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by iceman

It must be odd, rooting for the world to end.

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No, not rooting for it, but my head isn't in the sand about the shit storm that is coming. Frankly, nothing would make me happier than for the FED to miraculously save the USA. I would happily take the big :the_finge from you guys in 2013 if all is well.