What Will Jackson Hole Look Like in 50 Years?

Jackson Hole, like most ski towns, relies on snow-covered mountains and frozen valley floors for more than just a good ski season. Ryan Dunfee photo. 

Snow-capped mountains are not a pleasantry in Teton County, but rather a necessity. -20° days in October are not dreaded, but expected and anticipated. Frequent and early freezes provide hope for a wall-to-wall opening at the ski area and even early season pow.

But Jackson Hole requires cold temperatures for more than just a good ski season. The area needs lots and lots of days below freezing to sustain snow on our ski runs, provide a habitat for our animals, and keep our forests from burning down in frequent and devastating fires. 

Yet, global temperatures are unquestionably rising, and, in turn, threatening the climate that this town relies on. 2014 marked the world's warmest year on record. Ski towns across the west struggled to keep their lifts running, their employees employed, and their economies afloat via a snowpack that was drastically depleted by warmer days and fewer freezes. It was a preview, in many places, of the winters to come.

RELATED: America's Top Ten Most Polluting Mountain Towns.

Teton County School District is the 74th coldest out of the country's 16,317 districts. The long, cold winters here in Jackson fuel our economy, provides the snow we ride on in the winter and the snowmelt that feeds our rivers and lakes and, in turn, powers the natural world around us. The certainty of rising temperatures is a very real and threatening prospect for Jackson Hole. 

But whether you live in Jackson, or prize it as one of your favorite spots to visit, this is what's going to happen to the area if no major action is taken to stem the rising temperatures man-made climate change is causing. 

This information was all pulled from a report produced by the Charture Institute and the Teton Research Institute called The Coming Climate, which can be read in its entirety by clicking the linked title. A shorter summary can be read here.

Rain in November & March Instead of Snow

Spring skiing might just be all-season-long skiing at Jackson Hole Mountain Resort. Wikimedia Commons photo.

Average annual temperatures in the valley have risen by 1.3° since 1948, and are predicted to increase another 3.5° to 6.2° by 2100. If you thought this year had a low snowpack, imagine how shitty future seasons will be if average temperatures continue to increase. And although 3° seems like an undetectable change, it only takes the temperature going from 31° to 33° to turn a potential pow day into rain.

Jackson Hole Mountain Resort typically opens on or around Thanksgiving and closes around the first week of April. With rising temperatures, Teton County can expect heavy precipitation in November and March, but rather than an increase in snowfall, we will see an increase in rain. With that in mind, we most likely cannot expect another wall-to-wall opening in our future, and this year's wet closing day will only be a teaser for the water skis we might be needing come Closing Day 2065.

The Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem Will Have Almost No Trees

String Lake is surrounded by dead trees in Grand Teton National Park and perhaps a taste of what all of Teton County will look like in years to come. National Park Service photo.

If you were alive and cognizant in 1988–which I’m guessing half of you were, excluding myself–you will remember the most devastating forest fire in Yellowstone National Park's long history. The 1988 Yellowstone fire burned 36% of the park's 2.2 million acres–an area nearly twice the size of Rhode Island. The battle against it cost upwards of $120 million, and required 25,000 firefighters.

With climate conditions ripe for an increase in wildfires–think less snow, later frosts in the fall, dryer summers–Teton County and the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem may be susceptible to such devastating fires every 10 years, as opposed to our current norm of every 100 to 300 years. 

Giant wildfires, such as this Yellowstone one, can be catastrophic for both the landscape and the population, not to mention the economy. Wikimedia Commons photo.

And while wildfires are fundamental to the health of forests, with the decrease in downtime between major burns, the forests around Jackson will lack the necessary time to repopulate, turning our forested valley into open shrubland. By the time I am 60, there may no longer be mid-mountain tree skiing down the way at Jackson Hole Mountain Resort.

The Only Moose you Might See will be in the Wildlife Museum

Moose have been inhabiting the valley long before we have, yet they are slowly but surely dying off in Teton County. JHMR photo. 

Jackson Hole residents are no strangers to swamp donkeys (moose). They eat your plants in the summer, cause unnecessary traffic in the winter, and are, in general, animals to be avoided. However, without Jackson’s moose population, our eponymous hockey team and tourist attraction restaurants would be void of namesake.

As of 1980, Jackson Hole has seen an 85% decrease in moose population, and we will continue to see that decline. Higher temperatures are leading to shorter winters and threatened forests, leaving moose with a less than ideal habitat. The Mangy Moose may have to change its name to something more relevant.

Catching Cutthroats Might be a Pastime of the Past

Jackson locals fishing the Snake with a forested valley floor and late spring snow might be a distant memory. Cameron Walters photo. 

If our declining backyard bullwinkles don’t worry you, perhaps the predictions for future fishing seasons might. Warmer stream waters, and the accompanying non-native fish will threaten the abundant cutthroat trout population by over half by the end of the 21^st century. Teton County’s booming angler business will have to drastically decrease fishing trips, which will affect both tourists and locals, and in turn, our economy. 

Yellowstone has already had to take measure to accommodate this decrease by closing the Firehole River to angling when temperatures recently rose and over 1,000 trout died. Perhaps by 2050, Jackson’s local Instagrams will be filled with empty hooks rather than cutthroats and rainbows.

Teton County May Have No Tourists... and no Tourist Economy

Jackson, WY might be a whole lot less crowded...with far less of an economy. Jacksonholewy.net photo.  

With shorter, dryer winters, minimal swamp donkey attractions, smaller forests, and fewer fish, Teton County’s economy will drastically change. Now I may not complain about fewer tourist busses in town or increased traffic, I will complain about a strained economy. 

RELATED: America's Top Ten Least Polluting Mountain Towns 

According to The Charture Institute, who co-authored the report on Jackson's future climate, "Simply put, because of the exceptionally tight connections between the local economy and the region’s environment, the Tetons region’s economy can be no healthier than the region’s environment."

The 1988 Yellowstone fires decreased visitation by nearly half–causing a $21 million dollar loss in the local economy. With shorter ski seasons and fewer tourist attractions, we may need to rely on something other than large tour busses to keep our economy afloat.

So What Will Jackson Look Like?

Most likely not like this. Wikimedia Commons photo. 

If you ask me, that outlook is pretty bleak. This study's goal is to provide critical information that will inspire a more sustainable approach to Jackson's future, and adapt to a warmer, dryer future. Understanding what's in store for us, and beginning a conversation to address the adapting climate of our town, is merely the first step. Adopting more sustainable practices is the second. There are a number of local businesses and organizations that are committed to creating a sustainable present and greener future. Jackson Hole Mountain Resort has made an effort to become more energy efficient, following in the footsteps of Jackson Hole Town. 

Doing your part can be something as simple as riding your bike to work, walking or taking the bus–as transportation creates the biggest slice of Teton County's carbon dioxide pollution. You could also be as proactive as getting involved with something like the Jackson Hole Conservation Alliance or the Energy Conversation Works. Temperature increases brought on by climate change will drastically change the valley we know and love, so let's keep the Tetons as wild as we still can. 

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stash member Hillary Saunders

Professional weekend warrior.