Is the stock market going to tank?

[Bromontana]

The day for what?

Dow 20k

[Benny Profane]

Oh. Eh, yesterday's news. Dow 25,000.

[4matic]

USD index down over 3% from recent high. About 1% higher than the previous high in October. There is weekly support right here at 100.3 which is the double top from 2015 and 2016. Weak dollar and weak financials pointing to lower rates.

[Brock Landers]

Rates have been bleeding the last 3 weeks, I can't seem to rationalize between futures and the market- the rally was great because there was a reason for it (however good the reasons were is debatable)...now the party is winding down and everyone trying to figure out what to do.

I do think the fed will raise 3x this year...but not sure at all that impacts the 10-30y. I can see 10y going to 2% before 3%. And there's such a bid on 30y with a lack of yield globally, still long the 30y until the spread vs bund closes.

[4matic]

I do think the fed will raise 3x this year...

That's what they said last year. They may want to invert the yield curve just piss on GOP quackery. $SPX support at 2060.

[Brock Landers]

They said 4x last year...as I've probably said the last few weeks, I think the slack in the labor market is gone (despite labor participation) and wage inflation has already proven to be rising. Without any impact from anything trump has done. So even if all of trumps plans and tax cuts, tariffs, etc- none of that happens, there's already a case for inflation over 2%. Which isn't great shakes but I think that gets the fed to at least raise twice. Any impact from oil and trump policy...one more hike. Who knows though

[liv2ski]

Who knows though

Agreed. I wish I had been blessed to know now, what I will know in a few years.

[Bromontana]

Im tempted to reshort long dated US bonds but not doing anything on em now.

Ag stuff hot of late, could be long term reversals in the making.

[4matic]

Old school like me. VoM not good. But, money has changed and who knows if the calculation is still valid.

Bond Guru Who Called Last Bear Market 40 Years Ago Says Go Long

http://bloom.bg/2jyuLhy

Today, as hints of inflation start to bubble and calling the next bear market becomes the industry’s favorite pastime, Hoisington Investment Management’s Hunt shrugs it off and says “it’s just more of the same.” Using an out of fashion metric known as the velocity of money, the Austin, Texas-based economist says he’s convinced the rout since the election of Donald Trump is just a bump in the road for an extended rally.


The velocity is the rate at which money circulates in the economy and is usually measured as a ratio of nominal gross domestic product over the total supply. In other words, it measures how well an economy is able to generate transactions, and in turn growth, with an incremental increase of money in the financial system.


The problem is money velocity in the U.S. (as measured by M2) has fallen to a record-low of 1.44, meaning every dollar spent circulates only 1.44 times in the economy, down from over 2 times at the peak in 1997. To Hunt and other adherents, that shows even after years of unprecedented money printing by the Federal Reserve, inflation will remain subdued and elusive, largely because the private sector has chosen to hoard, and not spend, the money in the years after the financial crisis.

"When debt is at high levels and increasingly counterproductive, the most important lesson of economic history is that the velocity of money falls," said Hunt said, who helps manage $3.6 billion in assets. "I’m still long bonds, especially the long-end," the part of the yield curve that’s the most sensitive to rising inflation.

[4matic]

Dollar rejected again at a lower high.

[4matic]

Dollar sitting at six week low and is the same level it was in March 2015. It can go either way or no where for a long time In this pattern.

[4matic]

Dollar Index getting ripped. If 99 doesn't hold the daily then 96 on the weekly to 92 on the monthly.

[neufox47]

Damn. Maybe I should change my canadian trip money into loonies.

Moved about 20 % of my retirement into international funds two weeks ago. Looking good so far. EWZ is back to killing it too.

[Mazderati]

Dow 20k.

[cinnepa]

Thanks Donald!

[skibummer43]

Thanks Donald.

[Bunion 2020]

I am certain you were equally as thankful when that Obummer fellow helped the DJ go from 8000 to 19,900.

Jan 26, 2009 8,078.04 DJIA

[4matic]

Selling VZ today at a loss. Too much leverage in the account.

[Mazderati]

Sell sell sell.

[4matic]

I believe it's irony in the "thanks Donald" comments. Not like the deplorables own jack. 40% of Trump supporters think stock prices were down under Obama.

Thanks Donald! Lol.

[Bromontana]

Sell sell sell.

I'm longer than ever. markets are breaking out again today.

[Mazderati]

Yeah, honestly I have no opinion. The thought of buying reasonably expensive stocks at all-time market highs in an unpredictable political climate doesn't excite me but who knows. No moves on my side.

[4matic]

I'm longer than ever. markets are breaking out again today.

Market gains are momentum driven more than ever. Hockey stick and sidewise. You're inside or you're outside.

[Bromontana]

Yeah, honestly I have no opinion. The thought of buying reasonably expensive stocks at all-time market highs in an unpredictable political climate doesn't excite me but who knows. No moves on my side.

I don't have an opinion either, beyond a loose suspicion energy is going to surge. Just following price. Closed my Russell short for small gain when it refused to break down, then went full retart long.

Opened a position in ARCO today, looking to hold til summer. Seems ripe for some movement.

[Toadman]

Buy rubles. What could go wrong?