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  1. #2576
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    Lowest weekly close on SP500 since 10/20 and lowest monthly close since 9/2014. Sell bots are running the show right now.

  2. #2577
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bromontana View Post
    Guy with the ape avatar flinging poo for no reason is amusing. AXAS is fine, I see no shame in buying right now at depressed levels relative to global production costs. We don't know if anyone even bought it, just a recommendation and thank you.
    Whine whine. I well wished that they got their money and got out - if that's slinging shit then I'll sling all day. If someone is taking swings based on ski message board tips I hope they are playing for fast cash not betting their future.
    another Handsome Boy graduate

  3. #2578
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    Quote Originally Posted by Platinum Pete View Post
    Whine whine. I well wished that they got their money and got out - if that's slinging shit then I'll sling all day. If someone is taking swings based on ski message board tips I hope they are playing for fast cash not betting their future.
    Might get more honest advice on this board than from a stock broker. My former brother-in-law was a broker, and he liked to say, "Well, if the broker makes money, and the brokerage makes money, then two out of three ain't bad." And then he'd laugh.

  4. #2579
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    Quote Originally Posted by Benny Profane View Post
    Looks like a bottom has been made.
    At least until the next one.
    "We don't beat the reaper by living longer, we beat the reaper by living well and living fully." - Randy Pausch

  5. #2580
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    Jan 2005
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    Google up 5%!!

    I am just trying to fit in.

  6. #2581
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    Then post a chart ... jong!



  7. #2582
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    crude's breaking down in the Austrian session. I will be aggressive in shorting above $47-$48 this week.


  8. #2583
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    Maybe the US oil industry is flinching already? Planned strike, cut in production could change prices in a hurry regardless of reality.

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/102386758

  9. #2584
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    Blip on the radar. Could cause a $5ish spike though, idk. Don't see it countering the overall market imbalance.

    Seems like Q3 before production will start going down. Demand forecasts will go down with the global slowdown, adding more pressure. The flaw in the crash of prices is that it cripples investment and mid term production a few years out. As soon as the expectation of future production shortages is believed by the market, it'll recover. It's too early to bs and guess so you just have to monitor production reductions, when that is scheduled to take place vs. where production updates fall. It's going to take months. And it's unclear right now exactly how fast production will respond on the up and the down sides to tell how stable the long term price outlook is.

    I'm hoping to do well on the volatility and make out regardless. Also planning to ignore USO & OIl on the recovery because of the steep slippage. The levered ones make sense for intraday volatility but investing just doesn't make sense imo. Not a long term holder in any way.
    Last edited by Bromontana; 02-01-2015 at 09:20 PM. Reason: clarification

  10. #2585
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    Quote Originally Posted by mcsquared View Post
    Google up 5%!!

    I am just trying to fit in.
    LOL. My parents bought a shitload of Google right off the IPO for like $100 a share. I thought they were foolish because they had no clue what Google was, and how can a search engine make money anyway? The ironic part is that nowadays my biggest monthly paycheck comes from Google for online ads I support. But mobile is fucking all that up and it's only going to get worse. I think Google will head down. You have to wonder where in the future businesses will advertise. Online has not proven nearly as effective as print, but print is slowly dying.

  11. #2586
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    Quote Originally Posted by yeahman View Post
    LOL. My parents bought a shitload of Google right off the IPO for like $100 a share. I thought they were foolish because they had no clue what Google was, and how can a search engine make money anyway? The ironic part is that nowadays my biggest monthly paycheck comes from Google for online ads I support. But mobile is fucking all that up and it's only going to get worse. I think Google will head down. You have to wonder where in the future businesses will advertise. Online has not proven nearly as effective as print, but print is slowly dying.
    I can show you where if you want to market to healthcare professionals.


  12. #2587
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    Print is dead to quickly dying.

  13. #2588
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    Quote Originally Posted by yeahman View Post
    LOL. My parents bought a shitload of Google right off the IPO for like $100 a share. I thought they were foolish because they had no clue what Google was, and how can a search engine make money anyway? The ironic part is that nowadays my biggest monthly paycheck comes from Google for online ads I support. But mobile is fucking all that up and it's only going to get worse. I think Google will head down. You have to wonder where in the future businesses will advertise. Online has not proven nearly as effective as print, but print is slowly dying.
    Google has a reasonably strong mobile offering and they are starting to commit more and more resources to DFP mobile. They also have an unbelievable amount of direct-match data for cross device targeting, should they ever decide to monetize it. Google knows who you are on every device you use. The only other major player with a competing amount of data is Facebook. I think they'll be just fine in the mobile advertising space.

  14. #2589
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kevo View Post
    Google has a reasonably strong mobile offering and they are starting to commit more and more resources to DFP mobile. They also have an unbelievable amount of direct-match data for cross device targeting, should they ever decide to monetize it. Google knows who you are on every device you use. The only other major player with a competing amount of data is Facebook. I think they'll be just fine in the mobile advertising space.
    I agree they are well positioned for mobile, but mobile ad rates are declining, whereas mobile use is increasing. Not a good combination, although it's a little more complicated than that, as this article points out. They are still making a shitload of money, but the cost per click has a direct effect on my bottom line, especially on YouTube, where ad rates are down 8%. (That's an average, of course. Advertisers will pay more if they specifically want to advertise on your content, as opposed to less specific content.) Anyway, not complaining, but I just think the mobile platform is not as conducive to effective advertising as the PC.

    http://adage.com/article/digital/goo...ates-3/296896/

  15. #2590
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kevo View Post
    Google has a reasonably strong mobile offering and they are starting to commit more and more resources to DFP mobile. They also have an unbelievable amount of direct-match data for cross device targeting, should they ever decide to monetize it. Google knows who you are on every device you use. The only other major player with a competing amount of data is Facebook. I think they'll be just fine in the mobile advertising space.
    Google will be fine. I've been competing with them or selling against them for 8 years and it is not getting easier. As the competition gets better, so does Google. Facebook gives Google some pause, but not true fear. Google's ad business is so incredibly well fortified, you may see a few percentage points shift but Google will hold their ground. They are making some insane big bets that could multiply the company if they pop, and if not those investment are not money they'll be held accountable for. And if innovation fails, they can always spend their way out of trouble.
    Sure, some of the above could have been said about MSFT or others who have fallen, but I don't think anyone should worry about Google anytime soon.
    another Handsome Boy graduate

  16. #2591
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    Quote Originally Posted by Platinum Pete View Post
    Google will be fine. I've been competing with them or selling against them for 8 years and it is not getting easier. As the competition gets better, so does Google. Facebook gives Google some pause, but not true fear. Google's ad business is so incredibly well fortified, you may see a few percentage points shift but Google will hold their ground. They are making some insane big bets that could multiply the company if they pop, and if not those investment are not money they'll be held accountable for. And if innovation fails, they can always spend their way out of trouble.
    Sure, some of the above could have been said about MSFT or others who have fallen, but I don't think anyone should worry about Google anytime soon.
    Even marginally successful new players in the online advertising business split pieces of the global ad spend that is a little less than 5% growth this year. How do any of them continue to grow at double digit rates with ad rate gains in the low single digits? I think the market is questioning the business model. MSFT still has it's subscription business that is vulnerable but predictable. MSFT is soft now too. If AAPL does not lead with new highs right now the QQQ is vulnerable to a big decline led by GOOG. FB had solid earnings but the stock looks like it is going to roll over. TWTR could be the catalyst for further weakness after earnings because it is right on it's 52 week low and a gap below the low will crush TWTR.

    Also, the XLF is trading poorly. It reminds me of 2007 and 08 when the financial stocks did nothing for 18 months prior to the collapse. Weakness in the XLF is signaling an event risk. My guess is another currency comes out of the closet.

  17. #2592
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    Quote Originally Posted by Platinum Pete View Post
    Google will be fine. I've been competing with them or selling against them for 8 years and it is not getting easier. As the competition gets better, so does Google. Facebook gives Google some pause, but not true fear. Google's ad business is so incredibly well fortified, you may see a few percentage points shift but Google will hold their ground. They are making some insane big bets that could multiply the company if they pop, and if not those investment are not money they'll be held accountable for. And if innovation fails, they can always spend their way out of trouble.
    Sure, some of the above could have been said about MSFT or others who have fallen, but I don't think anyone should worry about Google anytime soon.
    I don't think anyone ever should worry about Google as long as they remain the proprietor of the web. They have company crushing powers.
    "4ply is so quiche"
    -Flowing Alpy

  18. #2593
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    Is the stock market going to tank?

    Interesting last two days. The crude price action has been intense, squeezes followed by leveling off and bullish consolidation. Fundamental analysis breaking away sharply from technical analysis from what I can gather. As a thought experiment, believing that oil bottomed last week in the $43s means it will have to sustain higher prices for another ~5 or so months of excess oil production vs. demand. It could take longer if demand weakens more than forecast.

    Some good info in this piece at FT.com: http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/edf13...#axzz3QebyL8Xc

    (tip for jongs - to get around paywall search name of article in google, click first link)

    However, several analysts cautioned against reading too much into the US rig count data. Adam Longson of Morgan Stanley said the market had got too excited by the headline figures.
    “They may look impressive, but as we look at the data, much of the drop in oil rig count has come in low yielding vertical/directional rigs — ie. the low-hanging fruit,” said Mr Longson in a report.
    “Even within horizontal rigs, much of the decline has come in lower performing plays or lower tier counties within high-quality plays.”
    Indeed, while US rig counts are falling, US domestic production is still rising — it reached a 31-year high of 9.2m b/d last week.
    As such, many people in the oil industry believe the price will need to trade around $40 a barrel for a sustained period of time to slow supply growth and keep capital investment in US shale sidelined.
    “The price decline is not at an end,” said Philip Verleger, an energy economist, in a report. “It could easily go further, especially if the United States needlessly inflames low-cost oil producers by lifting its oil export ban.”
    Many traders said Friday’s surge in oil price was a “short covering rally caused by hedge funds and speculative investors closing bearish bets”.
    Note for honesty's sake. I'm into this squeeze pretty bad. Considering adding the final third in the next few days but want to be patient and set it on the backside of the runup. There should be quite a few more trading days in the $40s, perhaps $30s depending on how much deflation Benny decides is out there.
    Last edited by Bromontana; 02-02-2015 at 11:07 PM.

  19. #2594
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    The price decline is not an end but a means. I like to look for the tin foil.
    Did someone say I had to put up a chart?


  20. #2595
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    I'm halfway towards losing a minivan in this short squeeze. Looks like the institutional side is closing up some small positions.

  21. #2596
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    The add with the thumb down was a botched order. Was in a rush and added instead of covering in the washout. Even posted here thinking I'd closed it. Ended up getting wrapped up pretty badly, it was one of the more abrupt squeezes in oil in the last few decades - an exceptional event. Expensive lesson anyhow, b/e is about $47 for me after doing a real good job of poor decision making I'll take it. Could pop tomorrow but I think there will be at least a retest of $44, thinking $30s by month's end. It could end up being a big trade if my thesis proves right.

    Last edited by Bromontana; 02-04-2015 at 09:20 PM.

  22. #2597
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  23. #2598
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    Going to read the full grantham piece in a bit but a thought just after he throws in the 30-50 range.

    Capacity utilization is and has been pretty close to maxed/on point. Storage is full but 4 years of pretty steady oil price and consistent demand (granted not global aggregate demand that gives too many boners) and eventually leads to fairly full tanks. Nothjng too big.

    And this 'oversupply' somehow justifies a 50% markdown on oil price? Seems so drastic. Anyway, going to read it
    Decisions Decisions

  24. #2599
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    Citibank is saying the floor is dictated by the marginal cost to produce, where sunk costs (exploration & development) are ignored. Until there is a shortage the price will be pressured to the point of turning off wells due to negative incremental cash flow. The EIA released projected Feb-Mar shale production increase of 68k barrels/day.

  25. #2600
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    Key juncture in interest rates this week. Utility stocks and Treasury look like trouble.

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