Is the stock market going to tank?

**Benny Profane** · 05-21-2016, 10:03 AM

Imagine approaching age 62 or so and having another '08 stock crash and major recession.
I'd put that money into a Vanguard bond fund. Don't fuck with such expensive, risky vehicles for your old age.

**4matic** · 05-21-2016, 10:10 AM

Originally Posted by Benny Profane

Imagine approaching age 62 or so and having another '08 stock crash and major recession.
I'd put that money into a Vanguard bond fund. Don't fuck with such expensive, risky vehicles for your old age.

Bond funds can get their ass kicked just like equity.

**4matic** · 05-21-2016, 10:15 AM

I played golf with a guy wed. from NY Life. They don't underwrote and he is forbidden to sell them. Risk to the company is too high.

If you had bought one in 2007 it might have been a good deal. Now the fees are high and returns are sometimes capped. It probably has the same company risk as an annuity from the same company

Part of being a good salesman is absolute faith in what you are selling.

**neufox47** · 05-21-2016, 10:28 AM

Originally Posted by Benny Profane

Imagine approaching age 62 or so and having another '08 stock crash and major recession.
I'd put that money into a Vanguard bond fund. Don't fuck with such expensive, risky vehicles for your old age.

These products survived 07 and 08 with very little loss of value in comparison to the stock market.

**4matic** · 05-21-2016, 10:44 AM

Originally Posted by neufox47

These products survived 07 and 08 with very little loss of value in comparison to the stock market.

By contract definition they wouldn't lose value. That's not the risk.

**Benny Profane** · 05-29-2016, 05:15 AM

http://www.barrons.com/articles/5-re...yet-1464408349

**Cono Este** · 05-29-2016, 07:44 PM

Originally Posted by neufox47

Anyone taken out an indexed universal life policy? One of my best friends is my advisor and he's pushing hard for me to use a policy as one of my primary retirement assetts. Cash value appreciation is based on three indexes, one for the S&P, the other two foreign. Part of his reasoning is the tax free status of the money. I'm 31, would pay 1k a month into this until I'm 68. I can lapse payments without losing the policy.

I can sell that stuff but I dont. The indexed products are being pushed hard in lieu of low intrest rates. Along with alot of othef crap like structured products for rich idiots. I rolled some people out of indexed anuities after they lowered the cap from 8% to 3%. into fixed for 3.5%. I guess they think no one opens their mail. Doubtful anyone can even understand them so I dont see how u buy it.

Don't get me wrong, insurance products can be great but I say you buy life for life insurance, term or whole/universal. Buy anuity for guarenteed returns when your older and buy stocks for growth.

$1000 a month for a 30yr old is alot of premium, I'd kick that guy in the nuts.

**neufox47** · 05-31-2016, 10:48 AM

Originally Posted by Cono Este

I can sell that stuff but I dont. The indexed products are being pushed hard in lieu of low intrest rates. Along with alot of othef crap like structured products for rich idiots. I rolled some people out of indexed anuities after they lowered the cap from 8% to 3%. into fixed for 3.5%. I guess they think no one opens their mail. Doubtful anyone can even understand them so I dont see how u buy it.

Don't get me wrong, insurance products can be great but I say you buy life for life insurance, term or whole/universal. Buy anuity for guarenteed returns when your older and buy stocks for growth.

$1000 a month for a 30yr old is alot of premium, I'd kick that guy in the nuts.

This product doesn't have a cap. Interest earned is based on the top 2 of the 3; S&P 500, Hang Seng, and Euro Stoxx 50. Waiting on the exact paperwork to come through, but estimate is that 900 of every 1000 I pay will go to cash value appreciation, $100 go to premium for early death and fees.

There have been a lot of people with non-specific reasons to not get this policy, but when I look at the details, I don't see many negatives here. Maybe when I get the actual contract, those will be apparent.

It does seem like this is just too good to be true. Tax avoidance, asset protection and equities market return rates?

**rod9301** · 05-31-2016, 11:39 AM

How sure are you that the company will be in business 35 years from now?

This is stupid.

You may be getting stock market returns, but you are taking on a non trivial risk, that the company will not be around or able to pay you.

Why not invest directly in the market, same return and no counterparty risk?

**Cono Este** · 05-31-2016, 11:51 AM

Originally Posted by neufox47

This product doesn't have a cap. Interest earned is based on the top 2 of the 3; S&P 500, Hang Seng, and Euro Stoxx 50. Waiting on the exact paperwork to come through, but estimate is that 900 of every 1000 I pay will go to cash value appreciation, $100 go to premium for early death and fees.

There have been a lot of people with non-specific reasons to not get this policy, but when I look at the details, I don't see many negatives here. Maybe when I get the actual contract, those will be apparent.

It does seem like this is just too good to be true. Tax avoidance, asset protection and equities market return rates?

My point is that they can change the terms on you after 1yr. Cap rate or particiption rate.

Ive seen it happen, you'll only get a 30 day option to bail without penalty.

Also, you must have either a cap or participation % The products hedge with options to make that risk profile, its a risk reversal/collar. Buy put/sell call. And when mkts get volitile the cost of that collar rises and thus they lower the % on you.

If you dont have a cap or part % id like to know who is giving away puts for free.

**4matic** · 06-02-2016, 02:12 PM

Highest daily close on $SPX since Nov. 3 2015. A close above 2100 will be the highest weekly close in 11 months.

**Bromontana** · 06-02-2016, 02:57 PM

Long twtr bishes

**Platinum Pete** · 06-02-2016, 06:23 PM

Originally Posted by Bromontana

Long twtr bishes

Betting they improve or waiting for the acquisition?
Several board seats belong to founders, so acquisition is gonna be a hard sell. Jack doubling up on CEO duties has not made TWTR any stronger. Interesting quote in the recent Vanity Fair article saying Google is not interested in buying them - not sure I believe that, but if it is true then who else is gonna write that check? Maybe MSFT, but I don't think they are interested in paying the price since their ads business is such a small piece of the overall enterprise - it would be a significant strategy shift for Satya. Plus, if you were a Twitter founder with a board seat and you built this sleek, brilliant tool you would probably not trust MSFT to take it to the next level. Satya is a smart partnerships player, he probably can get what Bing needs from Twitter without the risk of buying it.
The problem the street wants them to solve is user acquisition and engagement, that's a super hard problem to solve and it will be tough for them to buy another company to solve it - as evidenced by Periscope being awesome and not bringing on many new users or increasing time spent. Bain and his team can sell the heck out of Twitter in this economy, bringing in brand dollars and selling app installs, but if things tighten up both of those pools of money are going to be much smaller and harder to get. Their dynamic product ads product does seem to be doing well and should improve Twitter's reputation for direct response ads, but they will not match Facebook or Google for a long, long time if ever.
So many problems to solve at this company, and so many assets. Snapchat is their biggest threat and will suffer many of the same problems.

**iceman** · 06-02-2016, 06:29 PM

You're a little intense Pete.

**Brock Landers** · 06-02-2016, 06:38 PM

I never got the user acquisition thing. I'm not a registered user and I get a lot of news/insights/info from Twitter. Key is monetization. Like it was for facebook. Fb model needed reg users. Twitter doesn't
Disclaimer: long Twitter. Also long Valeant (again)

**iceman** · 06-02-2016, 06:48 PM

Originally Posted by Brock Landers

I
Disclaimer: long Twitter. Also long Valeant (again)

Really. I don't see either one.

Maybe just maybe Valeant, they were pretty smart until they got wrecked, maybe they can be smart again. I wouldn't give them any money though. Twitter sucks, It just does. Facebook is the only play in social media and it's only because they have a boatload of cash and can buy things. FB itself is about done.

**4matic** · 06-02-2016, 08:30 PM

I've been buying the latest dip in PCQ and PCK. So far so good. It can go bad in a hurry because they are so thin.

Had bids in on OAK today but didn't get hit. Yields almost 5%. Oak Tree has some overhang but asset managers are out of favor and I like that. That industry is overdue for consolidation.

**BigDaddy** · 06-02-2016, 08:44 PM

Originally Posted by neufox47

Anyone taken out an indexed universal life policy? One of my best friends is my advisor and he's pushing hard for me to use a policy as one of my primary retirement assetts. Cash value appreciation is based on three indexes, one for the S&P, the other two foreign. Part of his reasoning is the tax free status of the money. I'm 31, would pay 1k a month into this until I'm 68. I can lapse payments without losing the policy.

Very lame investment. You won't make any money unless you're selling them. Trust me, I know. Get term life for insurance and Vanguard's Index Fund for investing.

**Bromontana** · 06-02-2016, 10:34 PM

Originally Posted by Platinum Pete

Betting they improve or waiting for the acquisition?
So many problems to solve at this company, and so many assets. Snapchat is their biggest threat and will suffer many of the same problems.

My entry is based on diminishing declines and expanding opportunity. R/r is skewed up based on historical activity in the auction. It's still a relatively new issue and revenue capture sucks, but I see a durable brand given the space and some really good quality content on twitter, use it every day even though I post a modest amount. Its value to any given user or lurker is directly proportional to that user/lurker's ability to query a database and cultivate a relevant network.

Peak pessimism for TWTR, peak uncertainty, yet the brand value remains. Buy. So many permutations on what CAN happen it's senseless to model it. Not thinking past the present.

been creating some threads lately on interesting charts in case anyone wants to give em a gander. A good example of what I'm trying to do is in the corn & 30yr UST threads - model the auction structure and simply observe. Helps give a good feel for entries, behavior etc. https://twitter.com/provotrout/statu...78175525097472

**Platinum Pete** · 06-03-2016, 12:26 PM

Originally Posted by iceman

You're a little intense Pete.

This is the world I live in, so I tend to develop strong opinions. I'll take it as a compliment.

Originally Posted by Brock Landers

I never got the user acquisition thing. I'm not a registered user and I get a lot of news/insights/info from Twitter. Key is monetization. Like it was for facebook. Fb model needed reg users. Twitter doesn't
Disclaimer: long Twitter. Also long Valeant (again)

The user acquisition thing is based on a couple of things: 1. logged in users are tremendously more valuable for targeting of ads, cross device targeting, and everything else that gives investors hope that monetization could some day be competitive with FB. 2. It's growth - adding users and time spent is the demonstration of whether this is a growing, stagnating, or declining company.

Monetization is linked to growth. Advertisers and the tech & agency partners that are part of the value chain for a publisher's ads all want to know their investments of time and resources into a platform like Twitter (or Yahoo, LinkedIn, Pinterest or whoever) are going to pay off long term. Most buys by mid-market or larger advertisers are made via a technology partner or agency, and sometimes these layers are compounded - using one partner for ad targeting, another for attribution, etc plus the agency pieces. Without growth, those partners are likely to turn towards whatever is looking likely to be capturing eyeballs and user actions.

**4matic** · 06-03-2016, 05:24 PM

52 week high on PFF.

Junk did surprisingly well today also.

Dollar getting crushed is the outlier. No one expected that. I've been bearish dollar but thought I was going upside down as of yesterday.

**Brock Landers** · 06-03-2016, 09:46 PM

That fucking jobs report hit the dollar. No expectation for june now. The anticipation for a june hike was pegged at 40% beforehand and you saw the strength. Imagine if they actually moved in June...Id say 1.08 v euro minimum. Doesn't matter if it's June or sept , whenever it happens the ecb and BOJ will be easing, so dollar will strengthen again.

Maybe there will be a ~+60,000 job revision??

**4matic** · 06-03-2016, 10:29 PM

Rate hike will have the opposite affect if it comes too soon. It will invert the yield curve and dollar will fall. German economic news is supposed to be strong Monday and if it is dollar index could retest 92. Series of lower highs is bearish.

**Bromontana** · 06-03-2016, 11:28 PM

So near term expectations of lower dollar, higher oil, higher commodities. If the recent dynamic sustains it should push SPY to new highs. I was worried weak cycle in oil would drag down equities but for now there's an open window.

**4matic** · 06-07-2016, 08:32 AM

There's a Mallinckrodt office in my office park. There were two cars in front of one of the buildings yesterday at 9AM. The IBB biotech index rallied back to resisistance at $280. Make or break right here.

Junk Bonds look like another leg higher. Maybe 10%. Junk chart looks similar to EEM but EEM has more potential upside imo. Confidence in the dollar staying below $100 is good for equity. FTSE 100 chart looks interesting. The DAX is forming a large triangle on multiple time frames with the point right around 10,200.

SPY is starting to break out. A gap above the previous high next Monday would be a breakout on the daily/weekly/monthly chart.