Is the stock market going to tank?

[LeeLau]

Best single trader that ever walked any trading floor never went to college and came in long 8000 vix contracts Monday morning. Says he had more but lost it on ex. = nice week.

That takes balls

[Bromontana]

$OAS is up 35% from lows last week, PTs updated to $10-$14 (grain of salt but they are a factor). Anyhoo it's been a nice one to pick up in the low $8 range as it seems oil has a pattern of strong rebounds when both oversold and at recent or new lows. Haven't traded it lately but if you're looking for a good risk reward play on the rebound, wait for $OAS to fade near bear market lows and take a nibble. Caveat being WATCH crude closely and do not expect support at $8 to withstand new lows in the crude market.

I held off on buying last week. Had 1-2k shares of room available and didn't pull the trigger just b/c of risk appetite. Things move faster than you expect at times! Already time to short that beeech...

edit: just shorted crude kinda heavy @$47.77/bbl on CLV5. gonna have to watch this shyte like a hawk today, looking for 5-10pts on a partial pullback of the $10 ramp from $37/bbl. fkna +4pts in as many mins. crazy volatility, closed for loss of 0.63pt after seeing it go +6pt for a brief moment... gotta snag those gains when they're there.

going to reshort later today or tomorrow expecting a multi-$ pullback on the recent gains.

[4matic]

September is quarterly expiration. There is a lot of volatility and premium spun up. Tail wagging the dog for a while. Sp futures down 40 tonight.

Hard to believe the exchanges are calling last Monday's low's good on individual equities. GE at $19.30? The ETF bomb is looking like Chinese chemical plants.

Nikkei closed down 4%

[Bromontana]

some good tweets of late

@momotrader
I cant emphasize enough that technicals are not driving this market beta. Sentiment is. Thats how capitulation starts. #Emotion and #Fear

@gartmanreport
When your margin clerk calls you today (and they will), simply say "No Hablo Inglés"

@tpavlik
swing traders turned into daytraders bc they are getting their swings...just intraday

@SJosephBurns
A trader must have the wisdom of a chess player, the accuracy of a sniper and the rhythm of a musician.

[shroom]

and the balls of a bull?

[liv2ski]

and the balls of a bull?

Sadly most Bulls lose their balls.

[Bromontana]

and the balls of a bull?

It depends, there's a niche for every style and not all involve jumping in mad houses like the current market environment. It's a good test for risk management though.

[Bromontana]

Sadly most Bulls lose their balls.

Sounds personal :thefinge:

[Cono Este]

vIx is still not backing off. maybe more to come.

[4matic]

vIx is still not backing off. maybe more to come.

The leveraged ETF managers last Monday.

[Benny Profane]

Why do they still call them hedge funds?

http://mobile.nytimes.com/2015/09/01...reformedbroker

[Platinum Pete]

Read this article at lunch: http://www.vanityfair.com/news/2015/...another-bubble
The table next to me was chatting using their available cash for angel investing (by way of syndicates) because their cash couldn't buy houses here in SF. The plan sounded like spray and pray, following on to rounds led by "can't miss" VC firms like A16z, Sequoia, etc. These folks are well paid techies, but not elites; from the sound of the conversation they were not quite "qualified investors" or whatever the term is when you can make the private investments without the syndicates ($1mm in liquid plus $250k annual income, or something like that). The sums they were talking about investing were $150k spread out across six $25k investments, hoping at least one hits big enough to... I dunno what their expected outcome was.
It's pretty weird out here.

[Bromontana]

Interesting. A lack of yield in fixed income driving relatively high public equity valuations, which reinforces pushing more capital to higher risk area? VC/PE for guys putting up all or most of their liquid net worth? It really IS different this time.

[VTeton]

The guy that prints T Shirts for me is leading an angel round of startup money for an app that is the Uber of ______. I think that's a sign to run for the hills!!!

[Benny Profane]

Read this article at lunch: http://www.vanityfair.com/news/2015/...another-bubble
The table next to me was chatting using their available cash for angel investing (by way of syndicates) because their cash couldn't buy houses here in SF. The plan sounded like spray and pray, following on to rounds led by "can't miss" VC firms like A16z, Sequoia, etc. These folks are well paid techies, but not elites; from the sound of the conversation they were not quite "qualified investors" or whatever the term is when you can make the private investments without the syndicates ($1mm in liquid plus $250k annual income, or something like that). The sums they were talking about investing were $150k spread out across six $25k investments, hoping at least one hits big enough to... I dunno what their expected outcome was.
It's pretty weird out here.

Love that phrase. Spray and Pray. Which is essentially what these so called geniuses in established outfits, like, you know, that intense bald guy who is like older than like everybody there, do. And, that's how you hunt unicorns. Ha fucking ha. Why not?

[Benny Profane]

Gentlemen prefer bonds.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...er-trading-war

[4matic]

Nikkei is up 800 tonight. Almost 5%.

BABA in free fall. No surprise on that pump and dump.

[4matic]

Nikkei up 1000 now. That's a big move.

[Bromontana]

Shorted crude today & almost went long VIX earlier today but passed a decent opportunity. Casino opens at 930 EST, I will be up

edit: continuation on observation from the past bounce... seems like crude's having trouble keeping its new channel above $44/bbl. Betting it'll collapse, but certainly am exposed to a sharp bounce.

chart from yesterday, down to the low $44 range since then, looking for a flush to $40/bbl

[Benny Profane]

Did anybody catch this today? Brutal takedown of Yahoo and Mayer. You rarely hear this straight talk on TV outlets. I like Surveillance.


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...ceo-in-history

[4matic]

Leave Marissa alone. The company was already a mess.

Nikkei was down almost 1000 for a while tonight. 5% swings daily.

[LeeLau]

Leave Marissa alone. The company was already a mess.

Nikkei was down almost 1000 for a while tonight. 5% swings daily.

Even "stable" pairs like the USD/CAD or AUD/USD are undergoing +/- 2% daily swings. It's quite the traders paradise.

Good luck on crude short Bromontana. I was short but covered just yesterday, I like the way Brent and WTI diverged - mass confusion.

Shorted ACI as the weakest of the coal companies but covered it this morning. IB was charging me a 144% borrow. I have some calls sold but the premiums are ridiculous.

[LeeLau]

And still long FXP but buying FXI as the hedge whenever there's a huge move downwards or the Chinese government intervenes by printing money or jailing shortsellers or something similiarly stupid

[4matic]

That takes nerves of steel, conviction, discipline, and fortitude to trade like LL. More than a full time job.

[Bromontana]

That takes nerves of steel, conviction, discipline, and fortitude to trade like LL. More than a full time job.

Yes, i just try to pay attention

Ty LL, its doing well a/h.