Is the stock market going to tank?

**liv2ski** · 12-23-2010, 04:08 PM

Originally Posted by Benny Profane

That said, the one thing I learned this year is not to fight the Fed. That, and momentum. It certainly isnt about the basics in the economy, which still pretty much suck.

Zero Hedge is way over the top for me. I read Naked Capitalism, Big Picture, Calculated Risk, Seeking Alpha, and Simon Johnson. Taibi is always fun.

happy holidays and make money in 11

You can't fight the FED, but I am not taking any chances joining the ponzi based rally we had in 2010. Just waiting to short the shit out of this market, as I know this dog will have his day sooner than later. Zerohedge is a pretty sobering read and I respect Tyler's opinions mucho. That said, I take everything read with a grain of salt and keep my eyes wide open for the coming financial zombie apocalypse

And then on que, this just in:

"Conveniently in CNBC's lowest rated show, during Christmas Eve eve, at a time when perhaps 5 people would be watching in an interview which disclosed that after more than a year of searching, Biderman still has no idea who actually buying. In response to Bartiromo's question if the retail investor, who left after the flash crash (thank you SEC), Biderman responds what every Zero Hedger has known for 33 weeks: "Retail investors are not coming back to the US. Those investors that are investing are buying global equities and are buying commodities. We are seeing lots money going into commodity ETF funds: gold, silver..." and the even more unpleasant summation: "individuals have been selling, companies are net selling, insider selling and new offerings are swamping any buyback and any cash M&A activity since QE 2 was announced. Pension funds and hedge funds don't really have that much cash to invest. So what nobody's asking is what happens when QE 2 stops: if the only buyer is the Fed, and the Fed stops buying, I don't know what is going to happen...When I was on your show a year ago I was saying the same thing: we can't figure out who is doing the buying it has to be the government, and people said I was nuts. Now the government is admitting it is rigging the market." Cue Bartiromo jaw dropping".
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/aft...ing-all-buying

Happy Holidays guys.

**Brock Landers** · 12-23-2010, 10:50 PM

Originally Posted by Benny Profane

Third, you really have to recognize the difference between a media schill like the industry hacks that appear on CNBC and academics like Roubini, who, btw, gets plenty of air time there, but, hes not selling me shit.

Have you read your own posts? He is selling you plenty of shit.

Why is it anything Roubini says on CNBC is great but anything that anyone else (anyone remotely bullish) says is ridiculous? The calls he made in the financial crisis and thereafter- of sheer panic- are just as wrong as anyone (else) on CNBC.

Hugh Conway · 12-23-2010, 11:14 PM

Originally Posted by Brock Landers

its similar to Germany vs the PIIGS

Do you actually know anything about the economy of California? Or for that matter the Eurozone?

California's been a net donor state for over 2 decades now. It was down to 79% in 2003. A number of other states with crisises like New Jersey are also donor states. The American PIIGS are places like Alabama. Feel free to look it up if you care:
http://www.taxfoundation.org/taxdata/show/22685.html

**ilikecandy** · 12-24-2010, 03:00 AM

Originally Posted by Hugh Conway

Do you actually know anything about the economy of California? Or for that matter the Eurozone?

California's been a net donor state for over 2 decades now. It was down to 79% in 2003. A number of other states with crisises like New Jersey are also donor states. The American PIIGS are places like Alabama. Feel free to look it up if you care:
http://www.taxfoundation.org/taxdata/show/22685.html

so if the feds stopped taking so much from california residents, the state could raise its low, low tax rates and solve the problem? is that what youre saying?

**powpig** · 12-24-2010, 11:00 AM

Originally Posted by liv2ski

Just waiting to short the shit out of this market, as I know this dog will have his day sooner than later.

Hindenburg Omen on the clock, Bradley Model turn date next week, you may not have to wait too much longer.
I'm guessing things will look a whole lot different a month from now.

**Benny Profane** · 12-25-2010, 12:52 PM

Originally Posted by Brock Landers

Have you read your own posts? He is selling you plenty of shit.

Why is it anything Roubini says on CNBC is great but anything that anyone else (anyone remotely bullish) says is ridiculous? The calls he made in the financial crisis and thereafter- of sheer panic- are just as wrong as anyone (else) on CNBC.

What's he trying to sell me?

Hugh Conway · 01-27-2011, 01:48 PM

Whens the Social web bubble going to burst? $900 million round for Groupon? Groupon!

**4matic** · 01-27-2011, 02:20 PM

SPX 1300

We "should" accelerate higher here. I'm not betting on that but that's what my charts say. This rally needs to quickly extend another 5-10% to fulfill the breakout.

I still expect a correction to 1200 at some point but that level will rise with time and price.

Sideways action at SPX 1300 and INDU 12000 (which are both natural resistance points) is bullish.

**liv2ski** · 01-27-2011, 02:44 PM

4matic front running the FED. You have a direct line into the Squid or Jamie Dimon"? Just be ready to bail, but in the meantime, pump that market

"When the market seems like it is about to roll over, who you gonna call? Why future Treasury Secretary Jamie Dimon of course... Courtesy of IOIA, we now know whose ETF desk has a sole purpose in life to hit the Chairchopper's Russell 2000 target of 36,000 before June, when it all goes to hell".
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/jpm-save-day

**4matic** · 01-27-2011, 02:50 PM

Originally Posted by liv2ski

4matic front running the FED. You have a direct line into the Squid or Jamie Dimon"? Just be ready to bail, but in the meantime, pump that market

"When the market seems like it is about to roll over, who you gonna call? Why future Treasury Secretary Jamie Dimon of course... Courtesy of IOIA, we now know whose ETF desk has a sole purpose in life to hit the Chairchopper's Russell 2000 target of 36,000 before June, when it all goes to hell".
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/jpm-save-day

Jamie D. reads my blog here..

A Spring, post tax season, sell in May go away, correction is widely anticipated. Will it happen? Probably..

SPX gonna pass gold soon. Maybe tomorrow.

Edit: A little selloff on the MSFT earnings right at the close.

**Benny Profane** · 01-27-2011, 02:57 PM

Originally Posted by Hugh Conway

Whens the Social web bubble going to burst? $900 million round for Groupon? Groupon!

Pets.com part2.

**4matic** · 01-27-2011, 03:09 PM

Originally Posted by Benny Profane

Pets.com part2.

Not exactly:

But Groupon is growing so fast that it makes more sense to look at Q4 numbers. And according to our source, Groupon is approaching $2 billion in annual revenue, based on November's numbers.

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/group...#ixzz1CGvzJ2Dt

**Benny Profane** · 01-27-2011, 03:23 PM

I blame that damn movie glamorizing nerds in hoodies.

gunit130 · 01-27-2011, 03:30 PM

Originally Posted by Hugh Conway

Whens the Social web bubble going to burst? $900 million round for Groupon? Groupon!

This deserves its own thread.

**4matic** · 01-28-2011, 03:31 PM

Sold some IBM stock today. There is a gap down at $150 put in play (You never go broke taking a profit). I bought a small cap growth with 1% of funds as an initial position.

Market closed right on support and was weak after the close so there is a lot of event risk this weekend. I also have a large bond position I've added too for the last month that should do well in that scenario.

**WICS** · 01-28-2011, 03:34 PM

Bunch of scenarios relating to North Africa to put into consideration (Escalations from crisis into violent self-determination into transnational, bellicose proxy fights).

Elevated uncertainty. VIX didn't do it justice today.
The prevailing narrative of global recovery should IMO still get at least the plurality of likelihood, but that is down from >80%.

No xtal ball here.

Safe skiing and boarding this weekend.
Best wishes.

$.02

**Hott Butt Mud** · 08-02-2011, 03:38 PM

Yes. Tomorrow it's all over. Sell everything.

**liv2ski** · 08-03-2011, 11:40 AM

Some funny comments in Polyasshat on this topic

**G. Gordon Liddy** · 08-04-2011, 01:51 PM

Um... 460 points and falling. Glad I'm broke as fuck from investing in a start up instead of putting money in the market. At least I can control a little bit of where my money is going right now...

Strange times!

**mrw** · 08-04-2011, 03:00 PM

No worries

Obama is at the helm and we are headed exactly where he wants us to go.

**4matic** · 08-04-2011, 06:24 PM

Originally Posted by mrw

No worries

Obama is at the helm and we are headed exactly where he wants us to go.

Austerity was not Obama's idea. He didn't want to cut taxes, he didn't want to cut spending, he didn't want to dry up liquidity. Nope. This meltdown is 100% on the backs of the conservatives.

**Jer** · 08-04-2011, 06:29 PM

I've got 20,000 rounds of Ulyanovsk 7.62x39.

Any interest?

I'll sell as low as 100 round lots.

Make me an offer I can refuse.

**Missing Sock** · 08-04-2011, 06:33 PM

Originally Posted by 4matic

Austerity was not Obama's idea. He didn't want to cut taxes, he didn't want to cut spending, he didn't want to dry up liquidity. Nope. This meltdown is 100% on the backs of the conservatives.

your stretching almost as far as MRW

**Downbound Train** · 08-04-2011, 06:45 PM

Originally Posted by 4matic

Austerity was not Obama's idea. He didn't want to cut taxes, he didn't want to cut spending, he didn't want to dry up liquidity. Nope. This meltdown is 100% on the backs of the conservatives.

You are mental in this thread too. THERE IS NO AUSTERITY! You will NOT get away with blaming this on the Tea Party. Obama owns it.

**grubbers** · 08-04-2011, 06:56 PM

the government as a whole is to blame for this mess. democrats, republicans, they're pretty much all full of shit and due to them only wanting to work against one another, they are not acting in the best interests of the american people. pretty much nothing gets done in washington these days, our government needs some restructuring.