Is the stock market going to tank?

**PNWbrit** · 10-10-2014, 01:28 PM

Originally Posted by mcsquared

Benny may not know

^ Now that is what Benny should call his blog.

**Danno** · 10-10-2014, 01:29 PM

Originally Posted by Benny Profane

Oh, for fucks sake. Because it only goes 200 or so miles. How the fuck can that be an everyday family car?

It can't, for some people. It can, for others. For a single car family, it's unlikely that 200 miles is enough. I don't often drive more than 200 miles, but sure, it happens a handful of times a year, so if my household had only one car, then it wouldn't work (obviously it would work for single car households that never or very rarely travel that far). BUT, for multi-car households, it would work great. Because for most people, 99% of their driving days do not entail 200 miles. And for the rare circumstances where you are going further, you take the other car. It's no different than a family buying a tiny commuter car, even though they could never take the commuter car on a trip to the mountains or to drive to grandma's house.

And FWIW, the beauty of the Tesla isn't just in all that, it's that it's helping drive an electric car economy, so that maybe in 10, 15, 20 years, the Bennys of the world won't even be able to remember a time when they pooh-poohed the notion of an electric car. I'm never likely to buy one, but I'm glad they're making them.

**creaky fossil** · 10-10-2014, 01:31 PM

Originally Posted by AustinFromSA

There actually are. The breakdown of gasoline prices at the pump are not nearly as simple as crude oil costs X% and gasoline taxes are Y%. There are a LOT of taxes involved with every step of the way with the production of said crude oil, from municipal taxes to county taxes to state taxes to federal taxes. That's one of the reasons that gas prices are so high to begin with, because the oil companies aren't exactly eating that cost, but rather simply pass it on to consumers as they just build it into the price of everything. Same is true for just about any product out there, but gas is where we probably notice the pain the most.

Of course, and nearly every consumer item has hidden costs. I didn't really mean anything specific by the hypothetical Dingellgram, I was just noting that costs tend to be cubbyholed and therefore... hidden.

Would someone in the UK say our gasoline is painfully priced?

**liv2ski** · 10-10-2014, 01:35 PM

Working from home, I do not drive much anymore, but when I do, it is long distance. For me, a fuel cell wagon that can get 300+ miles per tank of hydrogen is looking like what I want in the next 5 years. Filling up a fuel cell in 5 minutes works. Charging a battery, not so much.

**4matic** · 10-10-2014, 01:49 PM

$INDU negative for 2014. Suspect the 200 Day on SP500 holds to prevent market on close sales. Watch out for Monday, futures stay open for another hour.

Nasdaq down 100+

**4matic** · 10-10-2014, 02:03 PM

SOX: Semi conductor index down 7% on the day.

**MontuckyFried** · 10-10-2014, 02:25 PM

Originally Posted by liv2ski

Working from home, I do not drive much anymore, but when I do, it is long distance. For me, a fuel cell wagon that can get 300+ miles per tank of hydrogen is looking like what I want in the next 5 years. Filling up a fuel cell in 5 minutes works. Charging a battery, not so much.

I'm also looking forward to the development of hydrogen fuel cells. Hope it goes somewhere. So it would seem that the Tesla is not the right car for you (or Benny) and that's perfectly fine. Just like a tiny economy car isn't the best thing for a carpenter, or a pickup truck probably isn't the best choice for average Joe air-hauler, or a minivan might not be the best thing for a swinging bachelor. Cars are all about being the right tool for the user, whether that person just wants to derive fun from their daily commute or time on the track (sports car), has tons of brats to cart around, needs to haul lumber, or simply wants the highest mpg/mpkwh possible in a quest toward more efficiency. Choices are always a good thing, and the Tesla provides exactly that. Finally a different choice in an otherwise increasingly homogenous world.

**Benny Profane** · 10-10-2014, 02:50 PM

Then, again, explain to me why the Leaf doesn't sell.

I'll answer that. It isn't cool. It's all about status and cool.

**MontuckyFried** · 10-10-2014, 03:27 PM

Originally Posted by Benny Profane

Then, again, explain to me why the Leaf doesn't sell.

I'll answer that. It isn't cool. It's all about status and cool.

Hmm. Let's see here:

Range: Leaf = 100 miles at best. Most report closer to 75. / Tesla Model S = 200-275 miles depending on usage. Advantage: Tesla
Looks: Leaf = Ummm...I'll be generous and call it "interesting" / Tesla = Sexy, sleek, upscale. Advantage: Tesla
Drive: Leaf = FWD / Tesla Model S = RWD, Model D = AWD. Advantage: Tesla
Ponies: Leaf = 107 hp and 187 lb-ft of torque / Tesla Model S = 362 hp and 325 lb-ft of torque, Model D = 691 hp and 687 lb-ft of torque. Advantage: Duh.
0-60: Leaf = ~10 seconds / Tesla Model S = From 4.2 to 5.9 depending on package, Model D = 3.2 seconds. Advantage: Tesla
Charge Time (100%) Leaf = 5 hours / Tesla Model S = 75 minutes w/ Supercharger
Motor Warranty: Leaf = 5 years or 60,000 miles / Tesla: 8 years AND unlimited miles. Advantage: Tesla by a lot
Price: Leaf = ~$36,000 / Tesla Model S = ~$70,000-100,000. Advantage: Leaf by far.

But even with the Tesla being better on every front except price, you are wrong about the Nissan Leaf not selling. It's actually doing better than you may suspect as Nissan's already sold over 60,000 copies of them in the US alone. Over 135,000 worldwide. Not too shabby for a little niche electric car! http://insideevs.com/nissan-leaf-sal...v-market-share

**4matic** · 10-10-2014, 03:28 PM

Originally Posted by Benny Profane

Then, again, explain to me why the Leaf doesn't sell.

I'll answer that. It isn't cool. It's all about status and cool.

Ever driven one? They are very cool cars. And, don't you drive a WRX? Really? A 60 y/o driving a WRX is ridiculously uncool. Do you wear skinny jeans too?

The only thing uncool about a Leaf is the price. They are expensive for the performance, range, utility.

**MontuckyFried** · 10-10-2014, 03:48 PM

"The ordinary 'horseless carriage' is at present a luxury for the wealthy; and although its price will probably fall in the future, it will never, of course, come into as common use as the bicycle." – Literary Digest, 1899

"A new source of power... called gasoline has been produced by a Boston engineer. Instead of burning the fuel under a boiler, it is exploded inside the cylinder of an engine. The dangers are obvious. Stores of gasoline in the hands of people interested primarily in profit would constitute a fire and explosive hazard of the first rank. Horseless carriages propelled by gasoline might attain speeds of 14 or even 20 miles per hour. The menace to our people of vehicles of this type hurtling through our streets and along our roads and poisoning the atmosphere would call for prompt legislative action even if the military and economic implications were not so overwhelming... [T]he cost of producing [gasoline] is far beyond the financial capacity of private industry... In addition the development of this new power may displace the use of horses, which would wreck our agriculture." - U. S. Congressional Record, 1875.

"The horse is here to stay, but the automobile is only a novelty—a fad." - Advice from a president of the Michigan Savings Bank to Henry Ford's lawyer Horace Rackham. Rackham ignored the advice and invested $5000 in Ford stock, selling it later for $12.5 million.

"That the automobile has practically reached the limit of its development is suggested by the fact that during the past year no improvements of a radical nature have been introduced." - Scientific American, Jan. 2, 1909.

https://www.lhup.edu/~dsimanek/neverwrk.htm / http://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Talk:In...tomobile_usage

"When Henry Ford made cheap, reliable cars people said, 'Nah, what's wrong with a horse?' That was a huge bet he made, and it worked." - Elon Musk

Hugh Conway · 10-10-2014, 04:42 PM

Originally Posted by Danno

It can't, for some people. It can, for others. For a single car family, it's unlikely that 200 miles is enough. I don't often drive more than 200 miles, but sure, it happens a handful of times a year, so if my household had only one car, then it wouldn't work (obviously it would work for single car households that never or very rarely travel that far). BUT, for multi-car households, it would work great. Because for most people, 99% of their driving days do not entail 200 miles. And for the rare circumstances where you are going further, you take the other car. It's no different than a family buying a tiny commuter car, even though they could never take the commuter car on a trip to the mountains or to drive to grandma's house.

HOW ABOUT RENTING A FUCKING CAR IF YOU NEED ONE TWICE A YEAR? I realize that disrupts the whole front range "I buy this shit for twice a year" cube monkey life, but GMAFB

**Benny Profane** · 10-10-2014, 04:42 PM

Yeah, but, none of you guys, who are within the white, upper middle class demographic so coveted, actually own one of these things. You want one like you wanted maybe a Prius ten years ago. But, when the money slaps on the table, it's an AWD pickup truck or a Subaru or something. So, blah fucking blah.

**grrrr** · 10-10-2014, 07:04 PM

Originally Posted by AustinFromSA

There actually are. The breakdown of gasoline prices at the pump are not nearly as simple as crude oil costs X% and gasoline taxes are Y%. There are a LOT of taxes involved with every step of the way with the production of said crude oil, from municipal taxes to county taxes to state taxes to federal taxes. That's one of the reasons that gas prices are so high to begin with, because the oil companies aren't exactly eating that cost, but rather simply pass it on to consumers as they just build it into the price of everything. Same is true for just about any product out there, but gas is where we probably notice the pain the most.

$88 for 42 gallons of crude, of which 19 ends up as gasoline. That's over $2 for the raw product before refining, shipping, profit to the oil company, profit to the station, then $0.40 taxes at the pump... Pretty fucking sure there isn't another $1.50 in taxes in there.

Hugh Conway · 10-10-2014, 07:09 PM

Originally Posted by Benny Profane

Yeah, but, none of you guys, who are within the white, upper middle class demographic so coveted, actually own one of these things. You want one like you wanted maybe a Prius ten years ago. But, when the money slaps on the table, it's an AWD pickup truck or a Subaru or something. So, blah fucking blah.

I'm a D none of the above in your list benny. But there are plenty of white upper middle class assholes who buy Turdla's. Really popular with the silicon valley dickbag set - the new Audi.

**creaky fossil** · 10-11-2014, 07:13 AM

Originally Posted by AustinFromSA

(...various quotes suggesting the Tesla is PROGRESS embodied!...)

Nice quotes, but they're like suggesting the widespread availability of free internet porn is why gasoline is now expensive.

**4matic** · 10-13-2014, 08:48 AM

30 year Treasury rate going below 3% today. Yield curve seriously flattening.

**frorider** · 10-13-2014, 08:51 AM

Sell your gopro stock now!! http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/mot...-injuries.html

Hugh Conway · 10-13-2014, 12:34 PM

Originally Posted by frorider

Sell your gopro stock now!! http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/mot...-injuries.html

In case you didn't get the hint when the founders got to unload their foundation shares early....

so, apparently with BABA, shareholders have no rights to even nominate directors. WAY TO GO NYSE!

**4matic** · 10-13-2014, 02:18 PM

Heavy volume selling the last half hour. 200 DMA liquidation will accelerate losses.

**Platinum Pete** · 10-13-2014, 04:44 PM

Originally Posted by Stu Gotz

I think this is going to interesting to watch. The Saudis have publicly stated that their national budget is based on $90 Brent, so they'll start pumping to make up the difference which will just hasten the spiral down. And we'll see how many of the levered up independents can survive with an extended stay in the $70s. Good for the coasts and bad for the mountain time zone.

Not that I endorse the tin foil hat conspiracy crowd, but cheap oil equals a higher likelihood of the Democrats holding on to seats, the Russians feeling pinched, the Euros surviving the winter, and the US economy avoiding a crash. No guarantees, but it helps all those causes and we saw it before in the Cold War. Plus ISIS doesn't feel so flush with cash and the Qatari purse of al-Queada funds is tightened. Cheap oil solves a lot of problems.

**abraham** · 10-13-2014, 05:03 PM

Originally Posted by Hugh Conway

In case you didn't get the hint when the founders got to unload their foundation shares early....

so, apparently with BABA, shareholders have no rights to even nominate directors. WAY TO GO NYSE!

It seems like that's the story of most of the highly valued, highly hyped, venture backed companies. And yes I know I said the same descriptor three times.

I'm not sure how the alibaba thing happened, It seems like a crazy joke

**Benny Profane** · 10-13-2014, 09:32 PM

Originally Posted by abraham

I'm not sure how the alibaba thing happened, It seems like a crazy joke

Especially when you see that guy's head. What the fuck.

**Bromontana** · 10-14-2014, 06:34 AM

Originally Posted by Platinum Pete

Cheap oil solves a lot of problems.

Much weaker news has rallied markets in the recent past.

I don't see the secular bull stock market ending now. BTFD is the mantra. Need a bigger shock to get a full 10+% index retrace.

**4matic** · 10-14-2014, 08:20 AM

Cheap oil and deflation helps the median wage consumer for sure. Active market again today and it better hold. 13 of last 17 days been down for German DAX. If it holds today DAX has first back to back gains in since Sep 5. Crude oil really busy and getting crushed.

BABA getting crushed again. Cracks me up the way that thing was hyped. Media is shameless.