Real Estate Crash thread

[fastfred]

so what about all the people saving money?

we cut the interest rate down to 1% or 0% again and there is a feeding frenzy of cheap money again
I

[climberevan]

Fed say let it ride.
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/31/fed-...uary-2023.html

Good. It shouldn't be free to borrow money. Unconstrained growth is like cancer, and we don't need to be juicing an already firing economy.

Plus I like getting 5.25% on CDs.

[Dantheman]

Plus I like getting 5.25% on CDs.

Why tie up money in a CD when you can get 5.25% in a savings account right now?

https://www.ufbdirect.com/savings/hi...avings-account

[Toadman]

Really the best thing the developers have going is the Karen's. The NIMBY bitches are so universally unlikable, that the binary alternative usually looks pleasant. That said, good Karen on Karen ranting in a public meeting is gold.

What we need is a good old fashioned NIMBY vs NIMFY catfight. People are so preoccupied with what's going on in their backyards they aren't paying attention to what's going on in the front.

[skaredshtles]

What we need is a good old fashioned NIMBY vs NIMFY catfight. People are so preoccupied with what's going on in their backyards they aren't paying attention to what's going on in the front.

We had fiber infrastructure run to a number of our local neighborhoods recently... and it was via the front yard. People were fuckin' losing their MINDS over this process.

Also - the number of people that don't understand utility easements is *shockingly* high.

[Core Shot]

so what about all the people saving money?

we cut the interest rate down to 1% or 0% again and there is a feeding frenzy of cheap money again
I

Stay frothy my friend.

[Conundrum]

I don't think that's a problem getting people on drugs.

Right. But we need to do it lockstep with getting them off skiing so eastern TN and WV mining towns get their slice of ski town urban refugees.

[XXX-er]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/briti...hips-1.7102448

developers going into recievership

" The last time receiverships were this bad was likely the early 1990s, she said, but the overall market is at least still more active than back then with interest still coming in on potential receivership sales.

The market though, still has some ways to go before a recovery, said White.

"I think we have another, at least six months, you know, where the calls are picking up, not slowing down."

[Toadman]

Next step in the evolution of selling your house. Eventually people will use AI to sell their houses. Hopefully AI won't kick us all out of our houses...

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/w...130000835.html

[Core Shot]

https://cowboystatedaily.com/2024/03...-for-4-million

[Art Shirk]

And it’s already pending after a price drop of 700k


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[BmillsSkier]

It's a shame Benny isn't here to go off about this realtor commission settlement. Wonder if/when/how soon we see changes as a result of this agreement?

https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/15/econo...ent/index.html

[PNWbrit]

It's a shame Benny isn't here to go off about this realtor commission settlement. Wonder if/when/how soon we see changes as a result of this agreement?

https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/15/econo...ent/index.html

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/15/r...takeaways.html

Home prices will drop.
The 6 percent commission will cease to be the norm.
Steering — the practice of agents directing buyers to more expensive houses — will be less common.
About one million real estate agents could leave the profession.

[Ted Striker]

Massive gift to the owner class.

[Kevo]

This week my brother in law lost out on an offer for house in the Detroit burbs to an offer $100k over ask. Listing price was $650k, under contract at $750k in 3 days.

Certainly sounds like there are no signs of a RE slow down there. Said house would have cost maybe $400k in 2020.

[Mazderati]

6% commission on the seller's side may cease to be the norm. I would guess terms and burdens will be rearranged with total transaction costs largely the same.

[Core Shot]

For the average-priced American home for sale — $417,000 — sellers are paying more than $25,000 in brokerage fees. Those costs are passed on to the buyer, boosting the price of homes in America.

What
The
Fuck

Buyers pay realtors? Who writes this shit?
Sellers pay commission. And yes. Dirt pimps suck.
Honestly a 2 or 3 percent makes more sense.
Otoh if you’ve ever dealt with a buyer that can’t get beyond the paint color or carpeting it’s blood money to pretend to like those people

[I Skied Bandini Mountain]

The final results and benefits will be a lot less than the media thinks.

[BmillsSkier]

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/15/r...takeaways.html

Thanks for distilling the takeaways as I don't have NYT pay access. I can see the last 3 items taking effect much more quickly, and to Kevo's point below, the first one may take some time.

This week my brother in law lost out on an offer for house in the Detroit burbs to an offer $100k over ask. Listing price was $650k, under contract at $750k in 3 days.

Certainly sounds like there are no signs of a RE slow down there. Said house would have cost maybe $400k in 2020.

I thought for sure we would see a slowdown here with higher rates, but that hasn't happened here either. Homes, especially in "in-town" neighborhoods, routinely go under contract for well over ask in days. The age of the $1MM 2bd 1 ba bungalow is permanent, and young buyers have to either borrow big down payments from Mom and Dad or move 35 miles outside the Perimeter to more affordable areas.

In just this last week, the below 3 articles highlight that (at least in this metro and even in the exurban mountains and lakes to the north) this trend isn't changing for the foreseeable future. We are just thankful we had the blind luck to buy where we did over a decade ago. Maybe lower rates and lower commissions help a new housing run, but from my view, there's counteracting factors that will negate those benefits.

Hollywood to Y'allywood, Atlanta is next big celebrity buying destination

Retired Boomers quit Florida for Appalachian triangle between Atlanta-Chattanooga-Asheville

Census data shows Atlanta is 3rd fastest growing metro area in US; now 6th largest metro area

Our plan is to ride it out as long as school/work keeps us tied to the city and then bolt for Lowcountry permanently (so people, please stop moving there too).

[J. Barron DeJong]

Buyers pay realtors? Who writes this shit?
Sellers pay commission.

Both end up paying, even if the seller is ‘paying’. How much each actually pays isn’t an easy answer:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tax_incidence

[Ted Striker]

6% commission on the seller's side may cease to be the norm.

Agree. In the Seattle-to-the-Canadian border market, 2.5/2.5% has been pretty much the norm for a while now.

My prediction is that total commissions paid will be further pressured downward, and buyer's representation will move to a fee for service model (like Redfin). Many suckers will opt to forgo buyer's representation, with predictably poor results.

But market forces will still prevail, and that money won't evaporate. It'll just go to the sellers.

[utagonian]

Sellers pay brokers with the buyer’s money.

[Ted Striker]

Sellers pay brokers with the buyer’s money.

And when this shakes out, the sellers will be able to put it in their own pockets.

Buyers always set the final price. Zero offers = price reduction or no sale. Once there are multiple offers, the seller just sits back and waits. This is simply a reduction in the seller's costs.

[J. Barron DeJong]

And when this shakes out, the sellers will be able to put it in their own pockets.

Buyers always set the final price. Zero offers = price reduction or no sale. Once there are multiple offers, the seller just sits back and waits. This is simply a reduction in the seller's costs.

I’m not sure it’s quite that straightforward, but assuming it is:

What’s the harm there? Is it worse for the money to be in the sellers hands rather than an agents? Keeping in mind that at some point virtually all buyers will end up being sellers later on?

Are we thinking that the real estate agents suffer so much that it actually ends up hurting the home buyers or sellers somehow?

[Timberridge]

Every time I visit this thread I get dumber.