article: Could Lance Armstrong win the Ironman?

[SquawMan]

Could Lance Armstrong win the Ironman?
The consensus of triathlon experts and fans is 'yes,' but would the cycling legend ever return to a sport he once competed in?

by Timothy Carlson

After watching former triathlete Lance Armstrong establish a legendary record of seven straight Tour de France victories, daydreaming aficionados of his original sport have been salivating at the prospect that the Texan might take on the Ford Ironman World Championship in his retirement from cycling.

Armstrong competed in triathlon as a teenager, racing elbow-to-elbow with some of the sport’s legends in sprint-distance events. His swim and run were on par with the best, and we all know his attributes on two wheels. Triathlon fans dream of what might have been, but because it was such a small, emerging sport with comparatively tiny payoffs, triathlete Armstrong would certainly not be the legend and multimillionaire he is today.

Still, the daydreams begat fantasy estimations of what Armstrong could accomplish swimming 2.4 miles, cycling 112 miles and running 26.2 more. Armstrong was a great swimmer as a teen, so hanging with the leaders in about 50 minutes for the Ironman seems reasonable. Even if the weather were not perfect, Armstrong could be penciled in for a 4-hour, 15-minute mark on the bike, then cruise to a 3-hour marathon and add to his Superman legacy in, say, 8 hours, 10 minutes including transitions.

How cool would it be to see Armstrong take on Peter Reid, Tim DeBoom, Normann Stadler, Faris Al-Sultan, Simon Lessing and the rest of the gang?

advertisementAfter all, he beat cancer. He smashed the world’s toughest endurance test, the Tour de France, into submission. He is the avatar of suffering who has proven time and again that nothing is impossible. His VO2 max is off the charts. He is only 33 years old, on par with the world’s greatest triathletes. Why not?

Well, Armstrong shoots from the lip and says what he thinks at the moment – which often changes. In early 2004, Armstrong was asked by Velo News magazine if he would consider doing another triathlon? “No.” Done? “Done. Maybe a few Xterras (short, off-road triathlons using mountain bikes).”

But just after his record seventh Tour triumph and declaration of retirement from competitive cycling this past summer, Armstrong said at an international news conference in France that he would be interested in a marathon and “wouldn’t rule out” Ironman.

But in Denver a few weeks later to promote the opening of the 24-Hour Fitness Lance Armstrong Sports Club in nearby Lowry, Colo., Armstrong recalibrated again. In an interview with the Denver Post, Armstrong revealed some human frailties that might tone down the daydreams.

After going for a run with fiancée Sheryl Crow in the days after his final Tour, Armstrong told the Post “I was basically crippled. I’m perfectly fit and I couldn’t get out of bed. We ran for 20 minutes and I said ‘I may have to stop and walk.’ It about killed me. I don’t need this.”

At the France news conference, he had mentioned he would like to do a marathon in 2 hours, 30 minutes. But at Denver he retreated: “No way! Why would you want to run a 2:30?,” he said. “Why not run 3:30 and have fun?”

The Post quoted 1993 world marathon champion Mark Plaatjes as saying Armstrong was very capable of a 2:30 marathon. “His obviously superior lung capacity and cardiovascular (fitness) from cycling will carry over.”

When questioned by the Post, two-time Ironman world champion Tim DeBoom said that if Armstrong were going to explore the marathon or the Ironman, he should start soon and “see where he’s at.” DeBoom added that the key difference between running and cycling was that “there isn’t muscle breakdown (in cycling). When you hit the 19-20 mile mark (running), that’s when your muscles take a beating.”

Still, despite reaching meltdown in his initial 3-mile jog, Armstrong hasn’t absolutely dismissed the Ironman. “It’d really be hard,” he said. “Especially in Hawaii because of the wind and the heat, and the 2,000-person mass start on the swim. Come on, that’s not my idea of fun. I’d love to go and drink mai tais and cheer for the people.”

Last month, Lance Armstrong appeared on Saturday Night Live in a skit that made fun of the idea that he might move on to triathlons. SNL faux announcers chronicled his appearance in a “Celebrity Ironman” event at Virginia Beach, where Armstrong barely survived the swim but came back to kill the competition on the bike. But when he started the run, the audience laughed as he kept his bike helmet on and his arms wind-milled wildly. Every single amateur passed him in the marathon.

“Man, I totally forgot how to swim,” he said in the mock post-race interview. “(And) I never really knew how to run either. Don't know how people do it. I just kept thinking ‘I’m Lance Armstrong. If I lose the bike part, I’ll be the laughingstock.’ So I just went bike-bike-bike in training leading up to the race.”

Realistically, Armstrong has the ability. But nothing is possible without the will and fire to motivate him for what would be a tough road. Despite his limping 3-miler with Crow, Armstrong at 33 could adapt his legs to the stress of running – which would likely take a year or two to reach competitive levels -- and he obviously has the aerobic engine. Despite the knotty muscles built up over 17 years of cycling, Armstrong knows how to swim and swim fast. So adapting to the water, again, would just take time – say a year.

Still, translating dominating world-class status in a single sport to triathlon is not as easy as it might look. Perhaps the most salient example is reigning two-time world cycling time trial champion Karin Thürig of Switzerland. Thürig won the Powerman Zofingen run-bike-run duathlon twice and dominated Ironman France and Switzerland. But at the big event in Hawaii, she swam a manatee-slow 1:12 three straight times and ran mediocre 3:20 to 3:25 marathon times to finish sixth, eighth and 12th. In fact, six-time Hawaii winner Natascha Badmann surrenders only a minute or two to Thürig over the 112-mile bike leg.

It’s also likely that money will play no part in Armstrong’s ultimate decision. The winning share at Hawaii is $110,000 – while Armstrong doesn’t even bother to pocket the $450,000 top prize at the Tour d France. He gives it all to his Team Discovery mates and manages to live on roughly $20 million in endorsements.

Secondly, Ironman takes a lot of time to prepare for, and he is eager to spend time with his children and bride-to-be Crow. As a living legend, Armstrong is the least likely candidate for a mid-life crisis to prove his manhood. Still, he’s just ornery enough to change his mind.

At the end of the August interview at Denver, the enigmatic Texan left room for dreams. "I've learned you should never say never,” he said.

Timothy Carlson is a senior correspondent for Inside Triathlon magazine.

[Plakespear]

Ironman takes a lot of time to prepare for, and he is eager to spend time with his children and bride-to-be Crow.

True, but he could train at home in Austin, and only travel to races a few weekends a year, as opposed to living out of a suitcase in Europe for the better part of 9 months on the pro cycling circuit.

[powdog]

That over-the-hill girlfriend of his - I think his ex-wife was better-looking than Sheryl Crow. What is scary is that his ex-wife looks like his mom...

Still, he hasn't competed in the Giro d'Italia and the Vuelta de Espana (the other Grand Tours) - I think Eddy Merckx in his prime would bitch-slap Armstrong silly and often. Armstrong only concentrates on the Tour - he's not a complete cyclist, like Alexandr Vinokourov, Tom Boonen, Paolo Bettini, Ivan Basso, etc. who race competitively the whole racing season. Think of him swimming in the Olympics - he only chooses the backstroke discipline...

[CantDog]

I think Lance should take up cyclocross.

[Artie Fufkin]

I think Lance should take up cyclocross.

[CantDog]

Well damn, I missed that one.

But in the results he beat out Mark Noble for the win...who is a nat. champ, but still a 40-44 master. Lets see Lance duke it out in the snow and mud against Page and McCormack. Better yet, lets see him over in Belgium.