50 years to the day

[MTT]

I’ve been watching lots of different videos and commentary from different sources. I think the IDF has made the choice. They are in boots on the ground. As for the hostages they’ve been written off. There dropping bunker busters on tunnels. Where the hostages are. Saw another interview guy seemed to know. Said the Israel’s had blood in their eyes.
Anyway it’s on now.

[californiagrown]

Hamas rockets have killed many people in Gaza over the years.

I always kind of thought that the rockets being fired had the power of something around a 155mm artillery shell, or somthing like a beefed up RPG. But if that one misfired rocket could kill hundreds of people (even if crowded closely together), they pack a lot more punch that i thought. And that also makes me rethink how i had poo-pooed the rocket attacks in the past as not all that dangerous because i thought they were pretty small.

[MagnificentUnicorn]

I always kind of thought that the rockets being fired had the power of something around a 155mm artillery shell, or somthing like a beefed up RPG. But if that one misfired rocket could kill hundreds of people (even if crowded closely together), they pack a lot more punch that i thought. And that also makes me rethink how i had poo-pooed the rocket attacks in the past as not all that dangerous because i thought they were pretty small.

There’s a lot of ground to cover between a 155 and an rpg


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[jono]

I always kind of thought that the rockets being fired had the power of something around a 155mm artillery shell, or somthing like a beefed up RPG. But if that one misfired rocket could kill hundreds of people (even if crowded closely together), they pack a lot more punch that i thought. And that also makes me rethink how i had poo-pooed the rocket attacks in the past as not all that dangerous because i thought they were pretty small.

Wait, I thought you had learned to do sarcasm. You're saying you seriously buy the 500 number?

[californiagrown]

Wait, I thought you had learned to do sarcasm. You're saying you seriously buy the 500 number?

US officials estimate 100-300 killed. With assumably another 100+ injured. That's a big fucking explosion.

[jono]

That's one way to guess at it, I suppose. Have you not seen the pics of the parking lot?

[californiagrown]

That's one way to guess at it, I suppose. Have you not seen the pics of the parking lot?

The point I was trying to make is that I thought the rockets Hamas had been firing for years/decades were small and not capable of inflicting massive casualties individually. I was very wrong.

[summit]

The idea that Hamas is shooting harmless rockets beggars belief. They aren't celebrating the 4th of July.

The lack of casualties on the Israeli side is NOT because Hamas isn't shooting incredibly deadly shit. It is because of early warning radars, sirens, drills, bomb shelters, missile interceptors... all efforts by Israel to save lives. Hamas low rocket accuracy helps lower chances but since Hamas targets large civilian areas they don't care about low accuracy.

When even a small rocket hits the wrong place at the wrong time, you get dozens or 100s of casualties!

Hamas has fired probably fire 100,000 rockets over the last 20 years.

Making Israel spend on the defense systems, having people live in fear, hide in bomb shelters, run for cover, and suffer psychological trauma is all as much the goal for Hamas as is the people they maim and kill.

Rockets vary in size d/t range and warhead, but a small warhead into a crowd is horrific. The hospital explosion casualties were so high because it was caused by a failed Hamas/Islamic Jihad rocket landing on a bunch of people clustered together in the open in a parking lot.

Gazans don't get warnings from Hamas to shelter from failed rockets. Hamas definitely doesn't care about the Gazans they kill with their rockets and they are happy to classify them as martyrs and lie to blame them on Israel. Hamas views this all as win-win.

[jono]

The point I was trying to make is that I thought the rockets Hamas had been firing for years/decades were small and not capable of inflicting massive casualties individually. I was very wrong.

I understand your point, I'm just saying that judging explosive power by how unlucky one rocket happened to get--as reported by questionable sources--isn't quite as useful as just looking at the blast radius (approximate as that may be).

Lots of things can be unusually deadly if they land right in the middle of a bunch of people. Assuming that happened (the people would have all been gathered around the parked cars?) in this case doesn't tell you a lot about the warhead compared to just looking at the after pics, which are mostly a bunch of burned cars. It's certainly possible that "hundreds" were killed there but it looks more likely that the kind of numbers being quoted might have been the total for the hospital or just rounded up etc. Notice the 3x range in the US estimate--that seems justified to my eye.

https://www.npr.org/2023/10/18/12067...spital-in-gaza

[summit]

It sounds like people were camping in/around the carpark because they know Israel doesn't target hospitals without extreme cause and major warning, unlike Hamas. And then they got accidently bombed by Hamas/PIJ.

[jono]

Right, and they were said to be mostly in the treed area by the parking lot, which doesn't show much sign of damage or fire. Fog of war here for sure.

[ex-powderbroker]

brussels put the hospital explosion at 10-30 casualties. either way it’s a far cry from the original 700 claimed. after the war they’ll also release hamas dead figures and we’ll learn that militants made up a large part of what they are claiming as civilian now. if this shit ever ends.

eta: i read a few articles about erdogan, it wasn’t 100% clear if he would turn down the opportunity to police gaza. but it could be a bad situation if something like the hospital bombing happened on their new headquarters.

[J. Barron DeJong]

Good article from an Israeli who’s been a negotiator with Hamas leadership. Talks about his thoughts on Hamas, and some of the recent Palestinian history:

https://blogs.timesofisrael.com/the-...7-2023-part-1/

Part 2 of this, talking about what he’d like to see in the future:

https://blogs.timesofisrael.com/the-...7-2023-part-2/

[dunfree]

There’s a lot of ground to cover between a 155 and an rpg


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there’s lots of ground within each of those!

as for Hamas rockets, they aren’t exactly state of the art with good qc. Ffs some have used square propellant. And I don’t think it necessarily bothers Hamas, they just want to hurt someone

[J. Barron DeJong]

https://x.com/mattyglesias/status/17...sR_NcRK2VkCfkg

[ex-powderbroker]

the settlers are out of control

[ex-powderbroker]

7 dead in the last few weeks:

https://apnews.com/article/israel-se...008da638474d99

vigilante murderous behavior is not going to help deescalate.

[highangle]

Looks like Hamas has radicalized yet another generation with their acts of late...

[ex-powderbroker]

i didn’t really get that from his posts and i think holding radicalized settlers to the law is pro-israel.

[riser4]

i didn’t really get that from his posts and i think holding radicalized settlers to the law is pro-israel.

This.

[highangle]

Well 47 Fair Play For Palestine groups don't dig Israel's Trump, which justifies Hamas kidnappings and missiles and means Israel is wrong again and will pay for generations whatever they do, according to the great sage Mathew Iglesias, who JB Feyadeen has quoted from Reddit many times in this thread to support of his Palestine Is The Victim Here ideology.


Palestine was created in mockery of Israel, like Orcs were created in mockery of elves in Tolkien.
Corbyn-style love for everything Palestine is just a modern rhetorical wrapper for old-line European Jew Hate. Matt Igl is on goddamn twitter ffs preaching Corbynism and JB Shadeen is passing out pamphlets on the corner like Oswald in New Orleans.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/techn...usk-twitter-x/

[J. Barron DeJong]

i didn’t really get that from his posts and i think holding radicalized settlers to the law is pro-israel.

Thank you.

[highangle]

Thank you.

Trouble is, the odd beheading or rocket barrage is not really against the law in Palestine.

And if you say the settlers in Kibbutz Ft Apache are illegally occupying Palestinian lands outside of Israel...shouldn't these "murderous" settlers be subject to Palestinian laws applied equitably? You know, just like they'd be applied to a Palestinian edgelord by a jury of his Salafist peers?


https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/.../104262569.cms

[ex-powderbroker]

the only beheading i’ve heard about in the west bank was one of their own a few years ago for being gay.

the fact that people can’t understand the difference (cultural and security-wise) between the isis mafia state of gaza and the kleptocratic nitwits (that have largely been more peaceful since oslo while being the victims of of violence and land grabs) in the west bank is a shame. look at these “end the occupation” signs, for instance, at protests - they’re embarrassing themselves.

besides, outside of LSL, is anyone defending Hamas?

and how did Israel think this was going to go?

https://www.timesofisrael.com/distri...-underway/amp/

If these settlers are so keen on fighting maybe Israel should get rid of religious exemptions for the IDF. If they can handle themselves to the levels of discipline as the current soldiers, anyway.

[summit]

You think the PLO/PA was more peaceful since Olso? Oslo was to end the 1st Intifada.

Then Arafat showed up to Camp David in 2000, said no to everything, spat on the peace offering including a 2 state solution, and launched the 2nd Intifada. Over 1000 Israelis were killed mostly by terrorist bombings and shootings.

I wouldn't call that "more peaceful."

Walking away from a two state solution again in 2008 wasn't peaceful. At best you could say PA is less violent than Hamas.