Ski Chile 2023 vroom vroom

[Casey E]

Seems this year is off to an auspicious start. At least, in the old lady circuit, where several older urbanite friends and aunts have told me, categorically, that this winter will be rainy.

Based on the Chilean meteorological services last report, they are well informed, as such is the current prediction.

https://climatologia.meteochile.gob....cas-202303.pdf

Titled "El Niño en el horizonte", it postures a dry fall, with the JAS quarter getting the highest probability of El Niño effects. The eastern pacific is warming:



In their words, translated:

The western coast of South America is
is at one of its highest values of
temperature in recent years (figure 1).
After 3 years with the presence of La Niña, which
favored negative anomalies of
sea surface temperature (SST), the
eastern pacific ocean has warmed
quickly to develop a
Coastal Niño.
A strong pulse of the Madden-Julian Oscillation
in phase 8 occurred last March
was the final trigger to generate this rapid
rise in the SST that had already been increasing
from the end of the year 2022. Although the
warming remains near the coast
South America, as we will see later,
It is also expected to spread to the
central pacific.
Warming on the Ecuadorian coast and
Peruvian has immediate consequences for
these countries. Like the sea temperature
has values above 25°C (or more)
produce convective storms throughout the
coast, which generate important
accumulated precipitation in short
periods of time.
In Chile, for now, the impacts are
related to increases in the temperature of the
air in the north coast and center of the country. The
average temperature between Arica and Chillán in
March had strong anomalies
positive, also presenting several days
with heat waves.
The arrival of a Canonical Niño could
change this in the coming months.

They go on to discuss the uncertainty of predictions at this time of year, and the intensity being likely "weak to moderate". First, though, that blob of heat in Ecuador and Peru (El Niño resuscitated for Easter this year) has to move west to the central pacific and south to Chile and really give a push to changes in wind direction. And then they get Godzilla mixed up in it

It is the Canonical Niño who usually has
the greatest impacts in Chile in terms of
rainfall. In the presence of El Niño, the
Winter is usually more rainy in central Chile.
Despite this, this relationship has weakened
a lot in recent years. From the beginning
of the Megadrought, and independent of the
presence of El Niño, the years have ended
with rainfall deficit.
An example of that is what happened with the
“Godzilla Niño” in 2015, which featured a
intensity similar to Niño 1997; being two of
the most intense El Niño events on record.
While El Niño 1997 left intense rains
making the year 97 one of the most
rainy in recorded history, El Niño
2015 was not able to prevent the year 2015 from
adding to the Megadrought.

All presented in graphs

[byates1]

A new season!

[Casey E]

Some local, and foreign, news - Mountain Capital Partners will now operate Valle Nevado. Probably a relief for the Chilean investors.

https://www.denverpost.com/2023/01/2...-valle-nevado/

Sounds like a good pitch, anyway

The parent company of Durango’s Purgatory Resort recently expanded to the global ski market as the new majority owner of the largest ski resort in the Americas: Valle Nevado in Chile.

It’s the first international resort for Mountain Capital Partners, which manages ski resorts and mountain bike parks in Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona, Utah and Texas.

The company’s Colorado ski areas include Purgatory and Hesperus Ski Area. Purgatory recently earned acclaim from The Wall Street Journal, which called it a “world class” ski village that won’t break the bank.

Mountain Capital Partners also owns Colorado’s largest snowcat skiing operation, Purgatory Snowcat Adventures.

And for everyones tranquility,

The South American resort’s leadership team and support staff will be retained in the transition. Future investments in Valle Nevado will be announced later, Coleman said.

Both sides of deal praise the other, and make some rather preposterous claims as far as I understand it.

"Valle Nevado: Resort the largest in either North or South America; Mountain Capital Partners have holdings in Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona, Utah and Texas"

"Mountain Capital Partners has sunk more than $65 million into its resorts over the past eight years. With Valle Nevado now part of its portfolio, the company’s skiable terrain has more than quadrupled."

Ah, I just realized what Purgatory and Hesperus are, so the "terrain quadrupled" could be. In terms of skiable chairlifts, however, not so. Valle Nevado only has 2 skiable chairlifts, plus two connecting ones. The rest are surface lifts, including t-bars. Hopefully there will actually be some investment.

[Casey E]

So the "CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS" has taken the old ladies cue, and now says

ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring, followed by a 62% chance of El Niño developing during May-July 2023.

, as of

13 April 2023 ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Watch

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/produc...ensodisc.shtml

The most recent IRI plume favors a transition to El Niño, beginning June-August 2023 and persisting into the winter [Fig. 6]. While the lower accuracy of forecasts during the spring can result in surprises, the recent oceanic Kelvin wave plus recurring westerly wind anomalies are anticipated to further warm the tropical Pacific Ocean. The coastal warming in the eastern Pacific may foreshadow changes across the Pacific basin. Therefore, an El Niño Watch has been issued, and the range of possibilities toward the end of the year includes a strong El Niño (4 in 10 chance of Niño-3.4 ≥ 1.5°C) to no El Niño (1 in 10 chance). In summary, ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring, followed by a 62% chance of El Niño developing during May-July 2023 [Fig. 7].

Their chart



Too early to really tell, but the coastal waters of Chile are warming, and those " recurring westerly wind anomalies" are encouraging.

[Casey E]

More ski area management news.

https://store.elcolorado.cl/abonotemporada/

The Colorado website now handles ticket sales for Centro Pillan (ex-Ski Pucon), and Volcán Osorno, both areas in need of better management.

Centro Pillan, so named for the Rucapillan Volcano it is on (Mapuche name for Volcán Villarrica, which means house or home of the devil, or the spirit, depending..), is starting to show the new Andacor concession. Two chairs were running thru the summer, for paseos or mountain bike, and apparently the road is better (that can change fast in the winter). They have been hiring for the winter. Webpage is no big deal but here it is
https://centropillan.cl/

Perhaps the biggest news involves the trikes (“mountain cars”) you can rent and ride down

https://www.facebook.com/10008880633...40aB7S9Ucbxw6v

The biking looks good



And the Andes Pass is born for the 3 ski area 2023 season, with 8 age categories

https://andespass.cl/

Progress!

[Casey E]

That said, the volcano is as dangerous as ever, and acted up most of the summer.







Check out the risk infografía slides here

https://rnvv.sernageomin.cl/infografia-no-004-2023/




The 1 km crater radius restriction is in place, alert level yellow.

[Casey E]

The old lady circuit is abuzz again with this for central Chile


Short, precipitation “a chuzo”, and the freezing level (3,400m) above the ski areas. But it is a start.

[Casey E]

Some Araucania stoke from Mawida Adventures out of Pucon

https://youtu.be/Xa-jpIy54H4

[comish]

Ahh, Villarrica brings back memories. I left some shoulder ligaments/tendons up there somewhere in the mid 90's... Shoulder was never the same, but really enjoyed adventuring through those parts.

Fingers crossed for a good year.

[Casey E]

The Glaciar el Morado is a good example of glacial degradation in Chile, thanks to Slava's fotos from a hike we did last week and 2010:



This is in the Valle Arenas at the end of the Cajon del Maipo road (now paved!), and is a major destination for backcountry activities, including skiing.

More of Slava´s old fotos





The valle in the fall, note the hiker at bottom left



All this is now part of the private Parque Arenas conservation project. https://www.parquearenas.com/
They grant access via their website, and permit snowmobiles in the winter. As the beginning of the valley is a restricted electricity generation concession, the access is poor and we had to walk up a washed out jumble of rocks to get the valley proper (with our bikes, yuk).

The jumble of sedimentary rocks at the beginning are fascinating.





Some supposed dino tracks



And the Baños Colina, a fine end to a fine day

[Casey E]

The latest snow forecast for Chile

[byates1]

Argentina inflation over 100%.

Pres not running for reelection, no one else either. Sounds like it's time for Casey E. to grab the helm!

How does this effect skiing and your daily situation? Hope all is good!

[hoarhey]

Argentina is normally chronically having these kinds of issues, while Chile normally doesn’t


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[Casey E]

Argentina is normally chronically having these kinds of issues, while Chile normally doesn’t

This is true. First time I was there, in 1977, coins were scattered in the street, not worth bending over for. A whole warped economy adapts to these things. Have cash? Buy electro domestics as savings. Buying property? Suitcase of crisp US$100 bills is the only way, the local notary has scores of bill counters. Local market? Barter goods. Whole airplanes take off with just cash to Miami. A trip to Chile is an opportunity to buy ANYTHING. A good salary can be had driving with new tires from Chile to Argentina, drive back with last legs tires, repeat. 40% are now below the poverty line. The restaurants? Packed.......

[Huskier]

Valle nevado/Portillo or Lenas In a niño year? Or no dif? Portillo accomodation prices are bonkers

[Beder]

Valle nevado/Portillo or Lenas In a niño year? Or no dif? Portillo accomodation prices are bonkers

I've been to Portillo several times. A bad snow year will be bad at VN and Lenas also. Being a bit further south, Lenas probably averages more snow. Getting to Lenas is much more tedious, at least it was for me.
The prices at Portillo include skiing and all meals. You want to go mid August.

[Casey E]

Valle nevado/Portillo or Lenas In a niño year? Or no dif? Portillo accomodation prices are bonkers

The intensity of the normal El Niño is usually spread proportionally evenly by latitude. The probability of rain at altitude also increases. Your decision shouldn’t depend on weather this year, as, if all goes as it should in a normal Niño year, everywhere should be good.

Portillo is very expensive as the lodge is a monopoly. The 3 Valleys have many lodging options, and are thus cheaper. No idea about Las Leñas. Too hard to get to from Stgo.

The road to Portillo will be closed tonight as a preventive measure, due to the approaching storm.

[comish]

The terrain in LL is mind blowing, when/if Marte is open. Huge IF... Been there maybe 20ish days and I think it's run 2 or 3 max.

I believe snow is pretty similar for all 3. It only starts to diverge when you head way south, ala Chillan, or Bariloche.

[Casey E]

A little tour of the volcanos post-storm

While little rain fell around Santiago, 150km south it was snowing up high



The inflationary Laguna del Maule



And Villarrica

[Casey E]

Lots of post storm photos stoking the buzz

Slava enjoys the thin covering in Maule



Chillan



And Antillanca

[Casey E]

The drought update:

6 months


48 months


In spite of that last storm, 2023 precipitation deficits range around -50% to -70% in the center/near south, with Coyhaique the only bright spot with -7%. Not much on the horizon either.

But, for the optimistic, some of the guided options for a Chile ski trip have links here

https://www.explore-share.com/backco...RoCFnUQAvD_BwE

For a more out-of-the-way ski trip, here is one to the heights of tropical Chile and Bolivia

https://www.chilenieve.com/ski-y-sno...del-altiplano/

[Casey E]

More stoke on the developing El Niño

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/produc...ensodisc.shtml



South America is the 1-2 region

the warming near coastal South America remains striking

The most recent IRI plume also indicates El Niño is likely to form during the May-July season and persist into the winter [Fig. 6]. The combination of a forecasted third westerly wind event in mid-late May, and high levels of above-average oceanic heat content, means that a potentially significant El Niño is on the horizon. While at least a weak El Niño is likely, the range of possibilities at the end of the year (November-January) include a 80% chance of at least a moderate El Niño (Niño-3.4 ≥ 1.0°C) to a ~55% chance of a strong El Niño (Niño-3.4 ≥ 1.5°C). It is still possible the tropical atmosphere does not couple with the ocean, and El Niño fails to materialize (5-10% chance). In summary, a transition from ENSO-neutral is expected in the next couple of months, with a greater than 90% chance of El Niño persisting into the Northern Hemisphere winter [Fig. 7].

[Casey E]

The Chilean weather service has published their monthly forecast for the MJJ quarter, with a mixed bag for precipitation. While daytime max temps will continue to be above normal for the north/center, there will now be more precipitation for the near north (Coquimbo to Valparaiso), but below normal for the central zone (Santiago to Chillan).



The far south is up in the air, but perhaps a central zone clue can be had from the rad lows experienced in Balmaceda, the pampa airport town near Coyhaique.



Yes it is speculation, but since 1960 the lowest low for march there was in 2005 (-15C), which was the last great snow year in the central zone. And this year hit -12C.....

All this says instability in forecasting continues. BUT, snow-forecast and other forecasting models are predicting snow for next week.

[hoarhey]

I was there in 2005

Big dump in September, skiing untracked cono este and meeting Sage, Macintosh, Dana Flahr and Ingrid Backstrom as they arrived from hiking over from valle nevado




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[kevino]

Can you guys school me a bit? Or point me in the right direction?

Wife and I are talking about taking a ski touring/mountaineering trip down to the Chile, there are lots of good flight deals for august September time period.

Reading the above posts, things have been drier but El Niño could result in a decent winter snowpack ? We are shooting for more spring skiing than mid winter pow.

Ideally we would get a rental van and drive around to peaks/areas to camp and ski? Any areas or resources that are worth checking out ?

Plan is to fly into Santiago. My initial reading suggests you would catch connecting flights from there?

Thanks all