Page 3 of 3 FirstFirst 1 2 3
Results 51 to 56 of 56
  1. #51
    Join Date
    Sep 2009
    Location
    PNW
    Posts
    1,902
    Just a teasing jab.

  2. #52
    Join Date
    Feb 2013
    Location
    WAshington
    Posts
    1,350
    Excited to see how the predicted forecast turns-out this weekend up north. NWS is going for warmer temps, NWAC's calling for something between - it sure would be great if the temp remained below 34F at Heather Meadows on Sat
    "Pay your nickel and take your chances"
    "they don't groom Alpental, they just move shit around."

  3. #53
    Join Date
    May 2009
    Location
    pdx
    Posts
    6,074
    Quote Originally Posted by pipedream View Post
    Excited to see how the predicted forecast turns-out this weekend up north. NWS is going for warmer temps, NWAC's calling for something between - it sure would be great if the temp remained below 34F at Heather Meadows on Sat

    or at Heather Canyon at Mt Hood Meadows

  4. #54
    Join Date
    Jan 2014
    Posts
    201
    Quote Originally Posted by pipedream View Post
    Excited to see how the predicted forecast turns-out this weekend up north. NWS is going for warmer temps, NWAC's calling for something between - it sure would be great if the temp remained below 34F at Heather Meadows on Sat
    WRF says it will, but it will be cooling off during the day

  5. #55
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Posts
    980
    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	Baker.png 
Views:	16 
Size:	71.2 KB 
ID:	202865

    FX came out 2 degrees below measured for Heather Meadows during the warm-up. Over the last week the Standard Deviation between FX and actual was 1.89 F for that location, meaning ~95% of forecasts were within 3.8 F. In other words the FX is almost always within 1000' of the actual freezing level at any given hour. At that high temporal resolution I'm happy with those results.

    More importantly, the wind forecast was spot on for Sunday based on field observations:
    Attached Thumbnails Attached Thumbnails Click image for larger version. 

Name:	Baker.png 
Views:	15 
Size:	68.7 KB 
ID:	202864  

  6. #56
    Join Date
    Feb 2013
    Location
    WAshington
    Posts
    1,350
    Regardless, by the time we got to Heather Meadows on Sat. morning the rain had turned back into, albeit heavy & wet, snow. That was dramatically different from what NOAA/NWS was calling for up to first forecast update on Sat.

    The wind forecast was spot-on, high winds in the wee hours of the morning diminishing quickly as the front passed thru with a rapidly lowering freezing level following. Still, it was enough action to initiate a substantial wet slab cycle in at-and-above treeline terrain and keep the Pan Dome side of the resort shuttered for the day.
    "Pay your nickel and take your chances"
    "they don't groom Alpental, they just move shit around."

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •