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  1. #1
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    Intuition and Ski Guides

    I found this paper while doing research for University, thought you guys might find it interesting.

    https://www.era.lib.ed.ac.uk/handle/1842/9580

    High quality decision-making can be produced through a sophisticated analytical process in addition to an intuitive process. A high quality intuitive process is dependent on an extensive repertoire of previous patterns generated by decision outcomes. Intuition is frequently poorly understood and often dismissed as unreliable and irrelevant. Yet there is a noteworthy sector within the literature that suggests otherwise (Glöckner, 2009; Smith, 2007). Termed dual-process (Evans, 2010), the combined strength of intuition and analysis forms the basis of how expert ski guides make decisions in avalanche terrain. Typically, the quality of the decision process is described as being contingent on the evolved expertise of the decision maker. Deliberate practice (Ericsson, Krampe, & Tesch-Romer, 1993) aimed at the development of context specific expertise provides the foundation. Ski guides are charged with the role of conducting guests through a constantly changing, hazardous environment with the goal of maximizing the guests’ rewards, within a risk envelope that does not eliminate the potential for a fatality. The challenge for ski guides is to formulate an operational context within a feedback environment that is plagued with inconsistencies and burdened with massive negative consequences. The ski guide decision process is influenced by the depth and breadth of expertise, with rapid pattern recognition generating a sense of confidence. However misleading environmental feedback can complicate the perception of decision quality. When nothing bad happens, poor decisions can masquerade as good ones. This may support the development of a faulty pattern recognition process. Research that helps to describe the innovative practices and extant knowledge of mountain guiding will help to harmonise theory and practice. There is considerable knowledge entrenched within the daily activities of the Canadian mechanized ski industry, as the average annual fatality rate is just under one and a half fatalities per 100,000 skier days. However it is arguable that even this number of fatalities is too many and all efforts should be made to reduce the number of fatalities. Data were contributed over two seasons (2008/09 and 2009/10) by a self-selected group of 35 heli-ski and snowcat-ski guides working in British Columbia. Mixed methods were used to analyse three sources of data. An initial quantitative analysis of the participants’ background experience and 96 event reports (62 good day reports and 34 near-miss reports) was used to provoke qualitative questions of interview data. The findings of this study address the issue of how and when intuition plays a role in ski guide decision-making. Decision-making in avalanche terrain is a complex process and professional guides have well developed strategies to help them manage the challenges. Years of training in analytical decision processes are supported by a wealth of available snowpack and weather information. Guiding teams provide a valuable peer support network to further the sophistication of the decision process. Yet despite the wealth of information available to support an analytical decision, most decisions are influenced by an intuitive factor.

  2. #2
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    Tremper discusses this in Chapter 1 of his new book http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B00GSYB74A?btkr=1
    'Crept he uses lots of paragraph breaks

  3. #3
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    good stuff, but you might get more interest in the avy forum.

  4. #4
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    Quote Originally Posted by thewon View Post
    good stuff, but you might get more interest in the avy forum.
    I was thinking that but this paper deals a little more with the skiier and less with the snow, I'm sure that it would fit there too.

  5. #5
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    that was a hard read after a few beers ...

    the average annual fatality rate is just under one and a half fatalities per 100,000 skier days ... so canada only averages 800,000 skier days ??? really ???

    Guiding teams provide a valuable peer support network ... yes this is true. BUT THESE COCK SMOKERS KEEP IT ALL TO THEM SELVES IN A CLOSED NETWORK ... bucha farkin cheats ... denying actual incidents !!!

    the quality of the decision process is described as being contingent on the evolved expertise of the decision maker ... thus I am still alive ...
    We, the RATBAGGERS, formally axcept our duty is to trigger avalaches on all skiers ...

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by Planks View Post
    I found this paper while doing research for University, thought you guys might find it interesting.

    https://www.era.lib.ed.ac.uk/handle/1842/9580

    Yet despite the wealth of information available to support an analytical decision, most decisions are influenced by an intuitive factor.
    That last sentence says a lot. I would hope that they are using the intuitive factor to shut down a line that an analytical decision supports as a go, rather than the opposite.
    Whether intuition is derived from some sixth sense, or accumulated knowledge, I don't care. I do pay attention to what my gut is telling me. Among all my ski partners we have a firm rule that if ANYONE doesn't like the line, we don't do it. Den

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by dewam View Post
    That last sentence says a lot. I would hope that they are using the intuitive factor to shut down a line that an analytical decision supports as a go, rather than the opposite.
    Whether intuition is derived from some sixth sense, or accumulated knowledge, I don't care. I do pay attention to what my gut is telling me. Among all my ski partners we have a firm rule that if ANYONE doesn't like the line, we don't do it. Den
    Kudos for your "anyone can pull the plug" system but I think you are mixing up good communication with intuition. There's a large body of evidence that sez people gain intuitive decision skills only after a lot of experience with rapid-feedback situations. Snow and avalanches do not provide good - or rapid - feedback, so relying on what is utlimately a poorly developed sense of "intuition" is probably not the way to go.

  8. #8
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    Bob, I am one of those people who thinks intuition is more than accumulated knowledge. As to snow not providing good or rapid feedback I find that difficult to believe. I am continually assessing conditions, and get lots of feedback from hand pits, ski cuts, rollovers, and every turn I make. But as I proved in my first sentence, I am no scientist. Could you explain that part more?
    I added the communication to demonstrate that I believe in and respect, my partners intuitive skills. The point I was trying to make was that among my friends we use intuition to shut down a line that analytic decisions had approved, not the opposite. Den

  9. #9
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    I read this as "intuition in ski gloves". It's brilliant. Warm and padding.

  10. #10
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    Interesting. I could never be a guide. Too much responsibility! But, I have nothing but utmost respect for them always!
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    "Don't be afraid of the spaces between your dreams and reality. If you can dream it, you can make it so." - Belva Davis

    "There are only two ways to live your life. One is as though nothing is a miracle. The other is as though everything is a miracle"--Albert Einstein

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by dewam View Post
    Bob, I am one of those people who thinks intuition is more than accumulated knowledge. As to snow not providing good or rapid feedback I find that difficult to believe. I am continually assessing conditions, and get lots of feedback from hand pits, ski cuts, rollovers, and every turn I make. But as I proved in my first sentence, I am no scientist. Could you explain that part more?
    I added the communication to demonstrate that I believe in and respect, my partners intuitive skills. The point I was trying to make was that among my friends we use intuition to shut down a line that analytic decisions had approved, not the opposite. Den
    Intuition is all about quick efficient decisions, usually resulting from pattern recognition. It relies on mental shortcuts and rules of thumb. And the research is solid that the only way one develops a good sense of "intuition" is through a huge amount (like 10,000 hours) of instant feedback in a given skill.

    The problem with avalanches - snow doesn't slide about 95% of the time, so you end up getting away with stuff you shouldn't. Think of all the stories about the fifth guy down a chute getting caught, then think about all the groups of 4 or less that would have skied that same shot and said "hey, that wasn't so sketch after all!" And about 2/3 of the time somebody triggers a slide, they don't get caught. So unless you are out there every day - for years - seeing the effect of stomping on cornices and throwing hand charges, it's unlikely you will experience the sample size needed to develop a useful sense of intuition.

    It sounds to me like you and your crew are using a logical system of evaluating conditions, communicating well and bringing a healthy dose of respect & humility with you - which is a good thing.

    This is covered very well in Tremper's Avalanche Essentials. Chapter one to be specific. While he recycles a bunch of material from Staying Alive in Avalanche Terrain, it's still a good read.

  12. #12
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    Thanks Bob, a well written explanation. I have the 10,000 hours, but most of those have been tainted by getting away with poor decisions. Occasionally I have returned the next day to find the whole slope slipped overnight, so I know that a mistake in judgement has been made. Maybe my problem is putting some faith in voo-doo i.e. gut feeling. That brings us back to the last line of the article

    "Yet despite the wealth of information available to support an analytical decision, most decisions are influenced by an intuitive factor."

    A lot of the guides I have met would be lucky to have 10,000 hours of instant feedback. Yet they do make good calls on the hill. Perhaps the science is blending with the metaphysical in the guide industry. Den

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by dewam View Post
    A lot of the guides I have met would be lucky to have 10,000 hours of instant feedback. Yet they do make good calls on the hill. Perhaps the science is blending with the metaphysical in the guide industry. Den
    Or, they use a good logical system of evaluation, and when in doubt they choose not to tickle the dragons...

  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by telebobski View Post
    and when in doubt they choose not to tickle the dragons...
    simple and effective.

  15. #15
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    If you hear a little voice saying maybe not today think twice

  16. #16
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    The other crucial point that Iain Stewart-Patterson makes in this paper above (plus a very similar one from ISSW 2012) is how to train intuition in the ski guide corps.

    It is trained by debriefing from mentor-level people, so that you do in fact get consistent feedback in a consistent environment. This allows the intuition to then apply to less-than-consistent situations and still be appropriate.

    You can read the ISSW 2014 paper here: http://arc.lib.montana.edu/snow-science/item/2074

  17. #17
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    Salsa, thanks for the link, it does answer the question I was wondering about in post 6.

    "However the interview data suggested that participants defaulted to the conservative option when intuition and analysis clashed, with generally the intuitive response indicating the need for additional caution."

    Now a good discussion of how to train the intuitive process would be of benefit. Maybe it is time to move that to the "avy forum" Den

  18. #18
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    Good read L - interesting that the "wicked" environment caused the guides to question both their analysis and their intuition.

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