Snow in the PNW 14/15: El Niño can suck it

[Brianskis]

Per NOAA, El Nino conditions are present, 70% chance of El Nino continuing into summer, >60% chance of El Nino continuing into autumn. See http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...-fcsts-web.pdf

Read through that report a couple days ago. I was wondering about this graph...



What is the difference between the probability % on the Y axis represented by the bars and the the climatological probability represented by the lines?!?

[TripleT]

The bars represent the current model probabilities for the upcoming 3 month time periods, the line shows the probabilities for climatology, or in other words, on "average".

Simply, the bars shows current model predictions, lines show what we would expect if you just average what we have seen in the past.

[Brianskis]

The bars represent the current model probabilities for the upcoming 3 month time periods, the line shows the probabilities for climatology, or in other words, on "average".

Simply, the bars shows current model predictions, lines show what we would expect if you just average what we have seen in the past.

Thanks!

[pipedream]

Looks like White River Rd. in MRNP is still scheduled to open tomorrow. Anyone thinking of hitting the Prow / Interglacier this weekend? I figure it'll be a bit of a dirt walk to snow, but hopefully skinnable before Glacier Basin.

[PNWbrit]

Inter skied great today. Perfect corn. The trail below glacier basin has a lot of snow but a really beaten in boot pack and a bunch of carries and some tricky climbs up and down onto partly melted out bridges. It was easier to just keep skis on pack.

[Norseman]

^^ Checked it out Saturday.

[abraham]

Great pictures as always

[char]

PNW May Fire Outlook

http://www.nwccweb.us/content/Videos/index.aspx

[Power_Sauce]

After a mushy Saturday, conditions were great on Sunday in the North Cascades:

[BeardedClam]

Talum skied well sunday

[tone capone]

The thread is looking really nice guys, new camera Norse?

[Norseman]

The thread is looking really nice guys, new camera Norse?

Hi Tony. You're purtying up the SWMT thread, too, I've noticed.

I got my camera in August of 2013 as a wedding present. It's a little Sony mirrorless model with their E-series lenses. Pretty stoked on its capabilities for the compactness.

When are you going to come out to ski on a few volcanoes with us?

[tone capone]

I could be down for that later this month! I've always thought Adams looks like a fun one...Thats the one with the big SW face right?

[Norseman]

I could be down for that later this month! I've always thought Adams looks like a fun one...Thats the one with the big SW face right?

Youbetcha. From July 6, 2014:






It'd be great if you could make a trip out (and time it with good weather). In case it matters at all to your potential planning, I've got the weekend of the 16th and 17th open, and would love to shred. The others are spoken for already, with a ski trip blocked out for the 10th thru 13th and a desert trip the 23rd thru 31st.

Let me know if you're interested, man.

[Jacobmandell]

Ski Conditions have been great for farming corn recently! Heres an edit from a couple days of skiing in the Southern Cascades

[the_flying_v]

^ nice stoke!

[tone capone]

Yeah fun vid, and I would really like to rally for a volcano with ya Scott, but unfortunately my schedule is not super flexible right now and my days off are in the middle of the week. Post pics please!

[plugboots]

I need to be in Cashmere Saturday, so how long would I have to bushwack/hike to get to skiable snow at Stevens Pass?
All the way to WA pass?

[Mofro261]

Webcams make it look like to about ~4.8-5K or so. http://www.stevenspass.com/site/moun...ms/resort-cams

[plugboots]

That's what I figured, I looked at all the webcams. I like how the telemetry shows -1" snow for 10:00.

[TAFKALVS]

Probably a 45 minute walk to the snow on Cowboy.

[PNWbrit]

Birthday Tour was near perfect corn yesterday, more importantly very consistent near perfect corn the whole way round right to the hairpin... fun day.

[plugboots]

Hey Brit, did you notice if Matt had melted out below poster bowl?

[PNWbrit]

Hey Brit, did you notice if Matt had melted out below poster bowl?

I didn't sorry.

[plugboots]

Probably a 45 minute walk to the snow on Cowboy.

Thanks.