New airbag study says: avy airbag work (but less then in previous studies)

[Marius]

couple of days ago i stumpled upon a new scientific study about avy airbags. The study - made by the Swiss SLF institute (leading worldwide) - says in a short (really short and not scientifically) conclusion:

survival rate in an (standard skier) avalanche (and i am sure some scientist will not be happy with my not scientific shortening):
with Airbag: 89%
without Airbag: 78%

or in other words: an avy airbag cuts the mortality rate by half.

Wrote some more sentences about that in german here, you can find the actract of the study in english for your reading pleasure here.

more scientific and close to impossible to read:
Resuscitation. 2014 Sep;85(9):1197-203. doi: 10.1016/j.resuscitation.2014.05.025. Epub 2014 Jun 6.
The effectiveness of avalanche airbags.
Haegeli P1, Falk M2, Procter E3, Zweifel B4, Jarry F5, Logan S6, Kronholm K7, Biskupič M8, Brugger H3.

"RESULTS:
Binomial linear regression models showed main effects for airbag use, avalanche size and injuries on critical burial, and for grade of burial, injuries and avalanche size on mortality. The adjusted risk of critical burial is 47% with non-inflated airbags and 20% with inflated airbags. The adjusted mortality is 44% for critically buried victims and 3% for non-critically buried victims. The adjusted absolute mortality reduction for inflated airbags is -11 percentage points (22% to 11%; 95% confidence interval: -4 to -18 percentage points) and adjusted risk ratio is 0.51 (95% confidence interval: 0.29 to 0.72). Overall non-inflation rate is 20%, 60% of which is attributed to deployment failure by the user.

CONCLUSION:
Although the impact on survival is smaller than previously reported, these results confirm the effectiveness of airbags. Non-deployment remains the most considerable limitation to effectiveness. Development of standardized data collection protocols is encouraged to facilitate further research."

[camlax]

good post.
i'd say its info that is known but not appreciated this side of the atlantic.
look at who did the "research" on survival rates here... marketing folks
whether its a pressure sensor on a stick or airbags as the end all of avalanche survivability, its nice to see actual data.

[Marius]

i am aware of this and still curious why (at least for some parts of your mountains) people still trust on skicuts and digging snow pits only...

valid data shows, that there are far to many problems with especially snow pits, also by the best experts. sure, they help especially in omre remote locations, but the problem stays.

so this new dataset might help maybe. escepialla regarding that ABS is still marketing with their 97% survival rate.

and if nothing helps, Darwin also has developed this one wellknown theory

[Jonathan S.]

[...]The study - made by the Swiss SLF institute (leading worldwide)[...]

Just to clarify, the study included data from seven different nations, with researchers/authors from all seven nations.
The lead researcher/author is based in Canada.

[...]i'd say its info that is known but not appreciated this side of the atlantic.
look at who did the "research" on survival rates here... marketing folks
whether its a pressure sensor on a stick or airbags as the end all of avalanche survivability, its nice to see actual data.

I'm not sure which side of the Atlantic you're referencing, but in North America, versions geared to a lay audience (in the non-scientist meaning of the word, not the TGR meaning) were just published this fall in the American Avalanche Association's The Avalanche Review ("TAR") and the CAA's journal.

Also, although my own analysis published by TAR in 2012 was nowhere as comprehensive and precise as this latest study, the results were fairly similar, as opposed to all the marketing.

[...]so this new dataset might help maybe. escepialla regarding that ABS is still marketing with their 97% survival rate.[...]

So for my airbag presentation to our Eastern Snow & Avalanche Workshop, I was prepared to track down a cached jpg for ABS's misleading 97% claim ... but I was surprised to see that it's still featured on the North American website!
(Kind of like that recent Outside mag piece that cited a 1 in 50 million in-bounds avy fatality rate.)

[Scottish_Skier]

Very good link. Interestingly the SLF have come to same conclusion (that airbag improves your chances of survival by 50%) as Bruce Tremper did last winter.

The ABS 97% figure was always nonsense - just because you pulled trigger doesn't mean the slide would otherwise have killed you.
Bruce Tremper makes very clear that terrain is the key factor and some slides are, as you might imagine, unsurvivable.

http://utahavalanchecenter.org/blog-...g-closer-truth

[Hugh Conway]

I'm not sure which side of the Atlantic you're referencing, but in North America, versions geared to a lay audience (in the non-scientist meaning of the word, not the TGR meaning) were just published this fall in the American Avalanche Association's The Avalanche Review ("TAR") and the CAA's journal.

Neither of those are lay publications.

Are you aware of just how many areas are "remote" and not well covered by avalanche forecasts in North America marius? Most of the avy centers run on thin budgets; they aren't the SLF. while many skiers may ski the same shots, or selection of them, it's not hard to go someplace underserved or poorly served - like some of the huts in the western US (ex Colorado). and that won't change anytime soon.

[Jonathan S.]

Neither of those are lay publications.

Okay, fine, but what do you want, SKI magazine?
Oh, actually, SKI is running an airbag story...

Anyway, based on some add'l info from Alpride, here's my take on the practice & air travel aspects of the four different systems:

[pls see more recent post with updated summary]

Feedback most certainly welcome from anyone feels otherwise.
(Although remember that the audience is for a regional "SAW" in the Northeastern U.S., where I'm pretty sure we have zero dealers who stock replacement ABS cylinders & triggers, but we do have lots of skiers often flying out West or to Europe.)

[jono]

Tiny point, but lithium batteries aren't in the same class as "any other rechargeable battery" for flying. Non-lithium rechargeables are basically unrestricted, but lithium batteries have to either be stored in the device or in an approved containment to prevent accidental shorts/fires. Probably not an issue unless you want to carry a spare battery, but there it is.

[skifishbum]

if ya ask me it's like arguing Keynesian economics you assume every avvy incident is reported
then you assume the gear itself didn't factor in any decisions conscious or subconscious
then you assume all terrain and slides will yeild similiar results.
been in a few incidents some reported some not
no one ever asked me so i really think they are operating w/ flawed data or non factual assumptions.

[Jonathan S.]

^ Those are all good points (even if the analogy with macroeconomics doesn't strike me as apt), but only with regard to my 2012 article in TAR. By contrast, the approach in the 2014 study from the international team led by Haegeli addresses all of that fairly well.

[Meadow Skipper]

if ya ask me it's like arguing Keynesian economics....

Wow...just wow.

[Black Ops Valdez]

The type of terrain that you ski on is a big factor, in Alaska, Airbags will definitely save your life because the most common type of avalanches we see is loose snow avalanches, and occasionally a soft slab slide. No trees, and not Hard Slab slides, makes the airbag very effective in AK.

[cat in january]

Jonathan regarding the ABS. I don't think they require an annual deploy, but I may be wrong. Pretty sure the cost is much less than $120 for the refill and does not need to happen preseason.

A second more important point is that hazmat shipping seems to be virtually impossible unless you have a connection. As far as I could find out, companies with hazmat licenses do not take in private parcels. The cylinder that was shipped to me was undeclared-I had asked the seller if he had hazmat license to ship. He lied and said he did, but it made it to me. With ABS and US air travel I think there are only 2 options: 1) rent at your destination 2) send used in to ABS and have them send Full to your travel destination to be held.

[Jonathan S.]

I just meant that ABS has a program (entirely optional of course) for a $120 fee every season for a cylinder and trigger exchange for practice purposes.
When I added up the estimated cost to ship a deployed cylinder and trigger to a deal, pay the exchange fee, and then incur the dealer's HAZMAT shipping fee, the total seemed roughly comparable to the $120 ABS annual program.

Good point on the "assume the can opener" aspect of shipping a charged cylinder & trigger to the ski trip destination.
And good tip on practicing before a trip, then directly ABS to ship the replacement to the trip destination.

I'll revise that slide accordingly -- see you on November 8!

[Jonathan S.]

Updated version:

[Jonathan S.]

^ oops, typo, should be $85 (not $75)

[PNWbrit]

I hadn't seen that WARY were closing.

Shame, they were nice folks to do business with, were a small US business and IMHO their product was great.

[Marius]

@hugh conway: sure, i am aware of the amount of less Tyrolean terrain outside of Tyrol still, most people frome overseas only know about digging and skicutting. when i am in more remote regions with the safety of a bulletin, i also do that. sure, but only as a last indicator of my previous decisions.

[Jonathan S.]

I hadn't seen that WARY were closing.

Shame, they were nice folks to do business with, were a small US business and IMHO their product was great.

Amazingly inexpensive close-out deal on the 23L pack:
http://shop.thewary.com/products/avipack-23l
That's $349 *including* the cylinder!

Obvious risk though in buying such a technical product from a company going out of business.
But very cheap to stock up on refill kits:
http://shop.thewary.com/collections/...cts/refill-kit
Even an extra cylinder is only $100:
http://shop.thewary.com/collections/...ylinder-full-1

[cat in january]

Was WARY the company that was making the airbag part for Mystery Ranch? Was really hoping they were going to make a bigger push in the industry.

[PNWbrit]

But very cheap to stock up on refill kits:

Yeah, i grabbed a few.

[Jonathan S.]

Was WARY the company that was making the airbag part for Mystery Ranch? Was really hoping they were going to make a bigger push in the industry.

Yes, and here's the status from Mystery Ranch:

We currently have a few Blackjacks in stock from production last year, but sizes are limited. Future production of the Blackjack is still TBD.

[neck beard]

I wonder if fan tech is causing existing hesitant brands to baulk further? Lots of money sunk into a competitive market just to see a potential paradigm shift negate your efforts.

[Hugh Conway]

@hugh conway: sure, i am aware of the amount of less Tyrolean terrain outside of Tyrol still, most people frome overseas only know about digging and skicutting. when i am in more remote regions with the safety of a bulletin, i also do that. sure, but only as a last indicator of my previous decisions.

think your complaint is with the self-selection biases of bros; ski-cutting isn't - ime - covered much at all in the US


neck beard - or the market just isn't that big; after the airbag bender of the last half decade how many people need a new one?

[cat in january]

[QUOTE=Hugh Conway;4329338
neck beard - or the market just isn't that big; after the airbag bender of the last half decade how many people need a new one?[/QUOTE]

Guessing mostly this.