HELP: Tuckerman Ravine Skiers / Riders!

**ctw55** · 04-03-2014, 03:05 PM

Hey guys!

I am a student at Lyndon State College in the Northeast Kingdom of Vermont. I am an avid Tuckerman Skier, and when time came to choose a topic for my senior thesis for college I knew I wanted it to deal with avalanche education and awareness.

So, I am conducting research on the effectiveness of the daily avalanche bulletin related to route choice for the day up within the bowl.

Research is being done through a survey. It is very short and will only take roughly 10 minutes to complete, if that. The survey includes a consent form and will be anonymous.

Please help a fellow TGR member and skier out with some avalanche education!

- Chris Wilke

Survey: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/1PKB...Pd2Lc/viewform

**hortence** · 04-03-2014, 03:14 PM

Have you studied selection bias? Statistical validity is kind of important when doing survey based research.

My point being, asking a bunch of generally avalanche savvy, rabid ski enthusiasts is likely to get you a skewed response on the effectiveness of avie bulletins.

Maybe you should be at the trailhead handing out surveys and pencils. That will get you a broader selection of trail users.

**ctw55** · 04-03-2014, 03:23 PM

Yes, I posted here on purpose, because of the fact that I knew this was a well established, knowledgable community with responses generally being educated and well thought out. With this data from TGR it will help me make important correlations between experience and backcountry knowledge and others. I will also be within the Ravine handing out surveys.

**::: :::** · 04-03-2014, 03:42 PM

Originally Posted by ctw55

Yes, I posted here on purpose, because of the fact that I knew this was a well established, knowledgable community with responses generally being educated and well thought out.

just wanted to save this statement for posterity...you'll want to see it after you hit 100 posts or more

**AdironRider** · 04-03-2014, 03:45 PM

This thread really shows the quality of education up there in Lyndon.

**ctw55** · 04-03-2014, 03:48 PM

Originally Posted by AdironRider

This thread really shows the quality of education up there in Lyndon.

You have my attention.

**Below Zero** · 04-03-2014, 03:49 PM

Avalanches don't happen on the east coast. I wouldn't worry about it.

I would do my senior research project on the effectiveness of calling "Dibs" in Gear Swap. I come from a family of "Dibs" callers.

BZ
"TGR Member"

**Vt-Freeheel** · 04-03-2014, 03:54 PM

**Vt-Freeheel** · 04-03-2014, 03:58 PM

I started to fill out the survey but quit when it asked me to choose between bc/resort skier. Fail

**ctw55** · 04-03-2014, 06:31 PM

Originally Posted by Vt-Freeheel

I started to fill out the survey but quit when it asked me to choose between bc/resort skier. Fail

Yes, the question could have been worded better. I am sorry that turned you off from it.

**cat in january** · 04-03-2014, 06:53 PM

I would suggest you pm icelanticskier every day for the next few weeks. You can pm him more than once a day. He will give you all the information you need from many perspectives with each of them being fresh. Don't worry this project will go as planned and you will have to do very little work

**lynchdogger** · 04-03-2014, 07:30 PM

Originally Posted by cat in january

I would suggest you pm icelanticskier every day for the next few weeks. You can pm him more than once a day. He will give you all the information you need from many perspectives with each of them being fresh. Don't worry this project will go as planned and you will have to do very little work

Words right out of my mouth ... FKNA, that was beautiful. Hahaha ... good luck kid.

Sent from my SCH-I535 using TGR Forums

**icelanticskier** · 04-03-2014, 10:07 PM

Contact Lynchy for tips on parking lot pack packing temper tantrums and frostbite avoidance

And general clusterfuckedness

rog

**NoPostholio** · 04-04-2014, 12:28 AM

Originally Posted by icelanticskier

Contact me for tips on what I am currently doing, what I plan on doing later and common sense avoidance

And general clusterfuckedness

rog

FIFY dood

**icelanticskier** · 04-04-2014, 07:29 AM

from another riveting TR:

Originally Posted by NoPostholio

I am just continuing to post in hopes that rawj can display his jackassery in a way that gets him banned for teh life.

everyone's gotta have a purpose, eh gheyboy?

rog

**icelanticskier** · 04-04-2014, 07:40 AM

Originally Posted by flowing alpy

la rog can't help right now, he's looking for skis.
b

got some, but dint get new skinz as i dint need them which is why you dint get tail clips. but when i do, you'll get teh clips

rog

**NoPostholio** · 04-04-2014, 07:50 AM

Originally Posted by flowing alpy

la rog can't help right now, he's looking for skis.
b

To attach to the phat bike?

**NoPostholio** · 04-04-2014, 07:54 AM

Send instructions, the tail clips might throw him off...

**icelanticskier** · 04-04-2014, 09:29 AM

twas a good season. AT binders 100% sold out. skins sold out. probes, shovels, most wax/tools sold out. only 5 pair of skis left which includes AT, xc, and xc/bc skis. boot inventory is low and continues to get lower. i actually like mail order companies and their deals cuz i do pretty well on labor dollars mounting, de-tuning and putting a nice hand hot wax on em. 60 bux PLUS TIP

for a 30 minute job. every lil bit helps.

DAY 9 in a row of clean n green solid surf today. off to da shop!

ciao friends

rog

**ctw55** · 04-04-2014, 04:19 PM

Hate or not, I appreciate the traffic I am getting. Thank you TGR. It honestly means a lot.

**hortence** · 04-04-2014, 04:26 PM

Originally Posted by ctw55

Hate or not, I appreciate the traffic I am getting. Thank you TGR. It honestly means a lot.

WTF? Are you just a click whore?

**monkfish** · 04-04-2014, 04:35 PM

I conduct and analyze surveys for a living and respectfully offer constructive criticism.

hortence correctly raised the issue of selection bias. And even if you conduct the survey at the Pinkham trail head you'd have to take into account when you're doing so - for instance you might get a much different crowd on a Feb or March weekend than during a late April weekend shitshow, or even between weekday and weekend during spring peak season. And presumably you'd get a more avy savvy crowd if you're there on a day when risk is Moderate to Considerable than if it's deep in spring and everything is rated Low.

Another, perhaps subtler, selection bias issue is self-selection. It's often best to not advertise up front exactly what you're trying to get at in a survey, which you did in your post above and in the title of the survey. In this case I suspect someone who does not take the avy bulletin into account in route decisions may be less inclined to take the survey.

I also see problems with the structure of a number of the questions but especially with the ones that presumably would be central to your analysis. For one, the first category in the questions on overall skiing/riding and backcountry experience is 0-10 years; there may be large differences between, say, someone who just started bc skiing this season vs 8 or 10 years ago, but you'd have no way to distinguish. Same for the question about frequency of skiing/riding Tuckerman per season, where the first category is 0-10 days (actually, someone who skis Tuckerman 0 days should be excluded from the study, though I can't imagine they'd complete the survey in the first place).

That relates to the key question, the last one: "Have you ever changed your daily plan based on the avalanche advisory?" If someone only goes up high when everything is stable deep in spring, they're going to say "never" and that might not be an "incorrect" answer from a risk-reduction perspective. If someone goes up when there's instability but stubbornly sticks to a plan and disregards hazards noted in the bulletin, they'll say "never" but the import of that answer will be far different. (You do have a question on which season people go up but obviously there can be a lot of variability in avy risk even just within spring; a lot of people never would think of going up in late March but will flock there in late April.) And, all that aside, if people make better decisions with more bc experience but they haven't been at it more than 10 years, you can't show that.

Not to be a Debbie Downer but I'm not seeing how you'll get meaningful correlations out of those constructs.

**Mannix** · 04-05-2014, 09:28 AM

I went to Lyndon State for a year after knee surgery and general shenanigans.

I rapidly stood out as a "good student."

I done be kinda klever, but "good student" I am NOT.

Got my ass out of there...

**Mannix** · 04-05-2014, 09:34 AM

Last time I skied Tuckerman, there was no avalanche advisory, beyond something at hojos, maybe pinkham.

I find it amusing that avalanches are all of a sudden a Big Deal - tuckerman's and elsewhere, and you're just not one of the cool kids if you don't talk about it ALL THE DAMNED TIME.

shrug. I did almost get scraped off right-right gully bootpack by a giant chunk of ice. Missed me by feet, exploded on lunch rocks. Back then, we thought that shit was funny.

Iain