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04-03-2014, 08:58 AM #26
I just don'y get the over-leverage model that many of the "big" ski companies have been running with (intrawest, Talisker, ASC etc)
just buy up as much as possible and prey for a huge snow year? (or more apt; blame the failings on a "poor snow year"...)
There is always a golden parachute for a few executives, while the investors, employees, and public generally get fucked over.
do you think Vail is over-leveraged, and in risk of debt fault? seems like a lot will have to do with if they get PCMR for cheap, because they're paying a hefty lease for just running the Canyons
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04-03-2014, 09:27 AM #27
Lots here
Lots of old info here.
Gillette sold. He wasn't forced into anything. If you dig deep, Apollo is a big as many nations as relates asset size and revenue. Look at prior acquisitions in the public record. Their deals seem to start at about a billion and go up from there.
Vail's legal thinks it's a done deal. That doesn't mean a Utah court won't do something crazy.
I think PCMR (powder) doesn't have leverage on their chairs. The only recent chairs are the terrain park and three kings, and they were both bought used from other resorts at bankruptcy type prices. On this point I am working on hearsay and could be totally wrong.
International banking is sleazy. At least they do it openly.
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04-03-2014, 09:36 AM #28Registered User
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MTN's PE is 107, WTF!
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04-03-2014, 09:45 AM #29
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04-03-2014, 11:42 AM #30
I sent my buddy a link to this thread. He's also local, a super hard skier, and a lawyer. I thought he had a prescient response in an email:
"...the technical aspects of lbo's is a bit more complicated than what was written, but the outcome is the same here as we are seeing in almost every other aspect of our society (at least the profitable areas); namely, the one's with wealth are able to dictate the rules of the game, changing them when it suits. There is going to be a point in time when the rock will no longer give blood, the rock will turn to dust. When that happens, the whole fucking system goes. I don't think we are far from that."
We might all be fucked in the end, as Yvon Chouinard hints at "180 Degrees South", but like him I want to go down fighting the good fight. Fuck these asshats."The world is a very puzzling place. If you're not willing to be puzzled you just become a replica of someone else's mind." Chomsky
"This system make of us slaves. Without dignity. Without depth. No? With a devil in our pocket. This incredible money in our pocket. This money. This shit. This nothing. This paper who have nothing inside." Jodorowsky
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04-03-2014, 12:01 PM #31observing free range rude
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Last time Leon Black tried to sodomize a Utahn he ended up giving him $1,000,000,000+ and walking away with his d1ck in his hand.
On the upside, it didn't ruin his personal finances and destroy his firm.
http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2008/12/...ype=blogs&_r=0
The legal battle doesn't answer the question of this thread. Pwdr ultimately has the decision on what PCMR will be going forward. They can negotiate with Vail or go to war. The guys who run Pwdr are not poor and seem to have some motive beyond incresing their already absurd wealth. As is noted with VR, people with massive fortunes and an agenda can be difficult to stop. Pwder falls in this category as well as VR.Last edited by Bromontana; 04-03-2014 at 12:12 PM.
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04-03-2014, 01:30 PM #32Hugh Conway Guest
Apparently these are all stalking horse offers and MRA is frantically working in the backrooms to secure Park City as the first shop rat owned Coop ski area in North America. It'll be a 6-pack a liftride tip to the lifty.
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04-03-2014, 03:28 PM #33Will work for snow
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http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2008/12/...ype=blogs&_r=3
The settlement will include a $250 million investment by Apollo in Huntsman, in which the private equity firm will receive 10-year convertible preferred securities.
Both Huntsman and Apollo stand to gain from the settlement. While Huntsman will not receive the $28 a share it would have gained in the original deal, it will receive much-needed new capital at a time when specialty chemical makers are suffering. Shares in Huntsman have plunged 77 percent this year.
Humm... Sometimes it hard to tell who really won.
This part of that deal sure does sound familiar
And Apollo will dodge a potentially serious blow. Huntsman had sued Apollo and two of its leaders, Leon D. Black and Joshua Harris, in a Texas state court for interfering with a previously agreed deal with another chemical maker, Basell.
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04-03-2014, 06:36 PM #34AF
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04-03-2014, 08:19 PM #35
where do you get that? I'm finding 91. Still stupid high but I suspect that takes into account substantially lower earnings this year due to adverse weather conditions as well as legal expenses related to pcmr.
powdork.com - new and improved, with 20% more dork.
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04-03-2014, 09:02 PM #36observing free range rude
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Their balance sheet isn't very inspiring. I see the EPIC pass as defending current earnings much more than providing a platform to substantially increase them. Economic volatility and global warming are decreasing the supply of their product while decreasing the profitability of the industry. Why in the world a company in a naturally dying market has a P/E that high, I do not know.
Gotta say, the financials indicate Vail made a booboo when it signed up to pay 25m/yr to lease Canyons. Not a doctor, just sayin'
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04-03-2014, 10:31 PM #37Banned
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04-03-2014, 10:43 PM #38Hugh Conway Guest
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04-03-2014, 10:47 PM #39observing free range rude
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04-03-2014, 10:57 PM #40Banned
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04-03-2014, 11:26 PM #41Will work for snow
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Apollo has more than one equity fund and a lot of hands in a lot of things. Apollo Group is the management/people.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_Global_Management
As of March 2013, Apollo managed over US$114 billion of investor commitments across its private equity, credit and real estate funds and other investment vehicles making it one of the largest alternative investment management firms globally.
At the time of Apollo's founding, financing for new leveraged buyouts was minimal and Apollo turned instead to a strategy of distressed-to-control takeovers. Apollo would purchase distressed securities which could be converted into a controlling interest in the equity of the company through a bankruptcy reorganization or other restructuring. Apollo used distressed debt as an entry point, enabling the firm to invest in such firms as Vail Resorts (MTN), Walter Industries, Culligan and Samsonite.
All is not good there??
March 20, 2014
http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2014/03/...ype=blogs&_r=0
Mr. Spilker, 49, joined Apollo as president in December 2010, as the firm was preparing to go public. He was formerly an executive at Goldman Sachs, serving as co-leader of a division that includes Goldman’s asset management and private wealth management businesses.
No explanation was given for his departure, and Mr. Spilker is also leaving his position on Apollo’s executive committee. Apollo says it does not plan to seek a successor.
What no succession planning in place for their top manager...? That's not a good public display of management skill. Maybe they are not really worth what they think they're worth?Last edited by jwolter7; 04-03-2014 at 11:50 PM.
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04-04-2014, 12:25 AM #42observing free range rude
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He was their public transition guy and rolodex whore (no judge, I'd do it for less). I don't think it's an alarm. Good to see Mr. Black pulled in over 500m last year while paying less in taxes than a seasonal liftie at snowbird. Good for him. Go OliGARmerica.
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04-04-2014, 07:30 AM #43AF
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All fine and dandy but Apollo does not show up as a major holder of Mtn. Plenty of large investors, most of which are mutual funds that have these shares in multiple funds they manage.
T Rowe Price 8.75%
Southeastern Asset Management 7%
Bamco (Baron) 15%
Vanguard 5.85%
others are Black Rock, Marcato and some others with < 3%
Specifically many mutual funds hold it BUT that does not mean they necessary like the stock. ETF's have to hold it in a small cap ETF and mutual funds that have managed small cap funds have to buy something. I see Longleaf Partners hold about 7% in their small cap fund.
I fail to see the Apollo connection.
Insider do not hold very much, Katz has 165,000 shares and then the next four have 91,000, 57,000, 25,000 and 17,000 shares. Big money for most of us but pretty insignificant in the scheme of things.
The PE is 108, which looks more like a tech stock in that lofty range. Does pay a decent dividend, 2.4% and the Beta is pretty high.
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04-04-2014, 11:05 AM #44Will work for snow
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So what you're saying then... as a casual observer that has not been following the guys who stole Vail from George Gillette 20 years ago, you don't see any connection to New York/Apollo guys who are now attempting to steal PCMR for peanuts using the inside industry name of Vail Resorts?
That's maybe how it is supposed to be working.
http://www.deseretnews.com/article/5...ke.html?pg=all
Investment firm Apollo Advisors, which owns 17.8 percent of Vail Resorts, is converting its 6.1 million Class A shares — representing virtually all of Vail Resorts' Class A stock — into common shares.
The Class A shares conveyed the right to elect up to two-thirds of Vail's board.
Apollo's common shares will be distributed to its limited partner investors, the company said.
http://www.businessweek.com/stories/...eets-dr-dot-no
In any case, Black, with his $16.6 million bonus check from Drexel and $800 million from Credit Lyonnais and other, mostly foreign, backers, was able to emerge from Drexel's ruins to found Apollo Advisors
"More change, the more the same thing"
(Reuters 2007) - Apollo Management founder Leon Black said on Wednesday his firm sold 9 percent of itself to the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority
GAME PLAN. Once Apollo takes over a distressed company, it usually follows a fairly predictable formula: It dumps marginal assets, replaces or motivates management with a package of incentives, recapitalizes the company, and takes it public.
As has been his practice in perhaps 40% of Apollo's deals, Black acquired major positions in various debt traunches, which gave it a "blocking position," the ability to control the deal's outcome
"I don't have to pay the debt on time, I don't have to write covenants, I don't have to worry about nuclear bombs, I don't have to have any equity. I'll do that deal."
A bit of news on the current April 3rd, 8th court dates is stating to come out.
http://www.parkrecord.com/park_city-...e-touring-case
http://www.parkrecord.com/park_city-...e-canyons-dealLast edited by jwolter7; 04-04-2014 at 12:40 PM.
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04-04-2014, 11:31 AM #45Registered User
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Just hope the Canyon's curse continues and brings down MTN.
$25M/yr might just do it.
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04-04-2014, 01:17 PM #46observing free range rude
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No dice on the attachment.
http://www.parkrecord.com/park_city-...e-canyons-deal
Vail is so fucked. They talk about the litigation as if winning in court will give them PCMR. The map says differently.
So they spend $10m on litigation to potentially gain a lease to some hills with no access point. Simultaneously they lose $10m operating Canyons in 2014/15. Then they have to figure out how the hell to access PCMR. Meanwhile each year they lose their ass on Canyons. Then let's say they get a gondola to link PCMR's hills to the Canyons lift spiderweb. And it's a logistical clusterfuck.
Maybe a year until MTN analyst calls include words like "miscalculation" and "risk appetite"Last edited by Bromontana; 04-04-2014 at 01:30 PM.
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04-04-2014, 07:00 PM #47AF
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What are you trying to say?? The first article you reference is 10 years old and the second one is 1996. BTW the first article from the Desert news clearly state that Apollo ( in2004) converted their shares into common stock and distributed the shares to to the limited partners, ie: anyone who had money invested. My guess is most partners sold their stock and have zero. As clearly shown by Morningstar, Apollo has zilch invested in MTN.
I have no idea how this turns out but I have see nothing to indicate any involvement by Apollo.
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04-04-2014, 07:08 PM #48
Agree
Apollo made their money on the IPO and exited. I think a couple board members are still in place from the crew that turned the multiple on the IPO.
In the pond of the rich, I think MTN has a bit more market pressure than powder. That said, Powder has the local home town court thing working for them and everyone hates Talisker. Even Tourists are bad mouthing them.
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04-04-2014, 08:51 PM #49
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04-05-2014, 06:20 AM #50AF
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