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08-27-2014, 03:04 PM #376Registered User
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well, shit ... stories like this aren't helping bookings that's for sure ... http://www.cnbc.com/id/101951406#
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08-27-2014, 03:16 PM #377observing free range rude
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08-27-2014, 03:27 PM #378
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08-27-2014, 04:03 PM #379
they could build access points around the pcmr property and they can drop in the ridge from Thaynes canyon. All of which would require new lifts, new parking new base amenities, etc. Probably one year build time if done on an expedited schedule and not considering the logistics of getting a big structure and parking lots put in in a town where putting up a shed can take two years to get approval. If they think they can put up a new parking structure and the nieghbors are going to be cool with it because of the community good, they don't understand the NIMBY attitude here. I like this outcome. Now they need to get this settled through mediation by Friday, which is the better long term fix.
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08-27-2014, 05:40 PM #380
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08-27-2014, 07:14 PM #381
From that, PC thinks FMV rent is between $226K and $1 million per year. Talisker thinks its between $11.4 and $14.8 million. No surprise, since PCMR claims their EBITDA is ~$27 million per yr and Talisker seems to think its $42-55 million. But as the judge points out below, Talisker is using lawyer-math for posturing
Originally Posted by Da Judge
Seems to me the options on the table are:
1. Powdr pays really high rent going forward - my WAG is Vail wants around $4million/year. That would reduce PC's annual EBITDA from $27 to ~$23 million.
2. Powdr sez fuck you to Vail, removes lifts and develops a winter camp. If the camp can make >$22 mill per year, its a push between that and paying Vail $4 million in rent
3. Powdr buys the leased property for $60+ million, i.e. a slight premium to what Vail sez is FMV. That means rewinding Vail's lease and settling out with the Talisker creditors, but it should be doable inside a BK chapter. The key will be to figure out who (Vail, Talisker creditors) get how much of the buyout proceeds.
4. Powdr leases the base facilities, lifts, etc to Vail. Vail won't go for that - Talisker's math to justify the Hudge rent for the upper mountain in turn justifies a Hudger rent for the stuff Powdr owns/controls there.
5. Powdr sells PCMR assets to Vail. Again, Talisker's math supporting the upper mountain rent bites Vail in the ass.
6. Powdr is acquired by MTN
So, I'm thinking #3 and #6 are the most likely conclusions
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08-28-2014, 07:37 AM #382Banned
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not that this would ever happen, but could Vail realistically bag PCMR season and maybe do "cat skiing" on the PCMR terrain from Canyons? I havent looked at maps, etc. Just wondering is maybe they could do that to use the terrain, give the canyons guests something special until they can get their own base/lift/etc? I know...crazy idea...bash it if you want.
I just can't imagine they can come up with some compromise? Their bond #'s are soooooo far apart its laughable even the HIGH end of PCMR's "offer" is way off still, and im sure they're looking for the LOWER end of their range obviously. Could PCMR even come close to making a million in profit on a Woodward style deal THIS season if Vail/Talisker says FU?
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08-28-2014, 08:18 AM #383AF
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Cat Skiing at PCMR, you are kidding? Here again without water not a whole lot of terrain available until later in the season.
One number did stand out. If in fact the PCMR EBITDA is $27 million as claimed then the $25 million per year that Vail is paying to lease The Canyons is major suckage. I remember seeing somewhere in this thread several months ago what the daily skier visits are at both resorts and PCMR was significantly more, maybe twice as many as The Canyons.
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08-28-2014, 08:33 AM #384
PCMR is straight up lying or intentionally miscalculating it's EBITDA, or not including inflated "management fees" and "rent" for certain small tracts of land.
Cumming has at least two ways of pulling (tens of?) millions of dollars out of the business each year. One is management fees. This is directly addressed in Vail's bond hearing arguement document as being way over industry norms, and is part of PCMR's EBITDA according to Vail, but not according to PC. PCMR basicly pays POWDR a fee for managing them, this goes to paying John Cumming (probably pretty massive) salary and the rest of corprate management, or some other way of paying out involving a tax dodge. The other is that Cumming owns 200+ acres of land at the base of PCMR, through park properties inc, which is leased to PCMR at an inflated rate, allowing him to pull millions out every year.
So, if there is a difference in the EBITDA that Vail reports vs. PCMR, it is because Vail is a savvy operator and is not fooled by these tricks that are keeping the EBITDA artificially low.....and they have brought them to the judge's attention.
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08-28-2014, 08:36 AM #385
That is also the crux of this dispute. Vail paid for two ski areas at the onset, and now has to win to not have the canyons deal be a drain for the next 50 years on their stock price. Wolf mountain bites another ski company. The only viable way they make their rent work is to take PCMR for free, and the Cummings don't need to do that.
Finally, I don't know a lot about ski area management, but I don't see the PCMR terrain they own driving $20 mil. The only people who would stay would be dedicated racers content to sit on Peekaboo all day working on angulation and park rats. It takes them from being a legitimate resort to being a novelty area teaching kids to ski gates and do spin tricks.
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08-28-2014, 08:53 AM #386Banned
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Thanks for this write up...couldnt figure out how PCMR was coming up with such drastically different #'s.
I worked for 7 years for a forensic accounting firm (i was a sys admin), this is the kind of shit they uncover during their business valuations. How to find the money thats being diverted.
I can't see any way PCMR comes out of this...
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08-28-2014, 08:53 AM #387
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08-28-2014, 09:10 AM #388
$27 mill per year may be low, but not tens of millions low. First off, it's a really bad idea to lie to a judge who has very likely seen your financials. Second, there's a limit on deductability of management fees and other controlled group transactions. The charges have to be "reasonable and customary" or the IRS won't allow.
Third, MTNs last annual report shows $32/skier day of EBITDA. Vail is considered a savvy operator no? So, IF PCMR pulls the same profit per skier day (highly unlikely if they are understating their profits with excessive fees) $27 million/$32= approx 850k skier days last year. Numbers I've seen bandied about here range from 800k to 1 million visits.
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08-28-2014, 09:18 AM #389
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08-28-2014, 09:48 AM #390
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08-28-2014, 10:25 AM #391
Breck and Vail have good snow making, flat wide runs and the ability for their runs to follow the fall line. The canyons has none of these things. The only upside I see for them at the canyons is if they buy out a bunch of mansions to put the slopes and chairs to a configuration that makes sense. Of course the base does have room for development. The place has some huge obstacles to overcome. PCMR fits their model perfectly. Logistically, the place makes sense, but the last four developers that owned the place have created some bug hurdles.
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08-28-2014, 10:30 AM #392Banned
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The Canyons, despite having a perfectly mediocre lift layout, has a lot of fun terrain and great backcountry access, it has gotten the short of the stick snowfall wise for 3 years running though. In a big year with good coverage down to 7500-8000 feet on the PC side, it's a fun mountain. I enjoy it more than PCMR.
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08-28-2014, 10:30 AM #393
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08-28-2014, 11:12 AM #394observing free range rude
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It'll be Whistler Blackcomb without the mountain and the village. Prescient move by Vail.
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09-02-2014, 08:27 AM #395
Guessing they are making announcements to employees first thing this morning and then a press release by noon? I have not heard a word.
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09-02-2014, 08:33 AM #396
I reviewed this situation with a friend of mine who works in commercial real estate. If there is a very high bond set, say over $100m, PCMR/Cumming could possibly borrow part of the money based on the projected profits of PCMR over the next couple years. They could them make up the rest from cash on hand. They wouldn't need the property as collateral, if I undestood correctly. But who knows.
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09-02-2014, 08:34 AM #397
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09-02-2014, 12:11 PM #398
The latest Fox 13 article...
http://fox13now.com/2014/09/02/media...eviction-case/
Edit: That link's been updated and it sounds like they've asked for the bond hearing to be pushed until Friday.Last edited by PointOfRelease; 09-02-2014 at 04:57 PM.
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09-03-2014, 09:24 AM #399observing free range rude
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Gonna be another week of guessing.
Park City bond ruling pushed to Friday
Ski industry » Judge grants parties’ request to postpone Wednesday’s scheduled decision.
http://www.sltrib.com/sltrib/news/58...judge.html.csp
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09-03-2014, 09:42 AM #400
At this point I am out of ideas. Maybe seeking board approval from Vail for something, but I don't understand why else the extensions keep happening?
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