Malaysia Airlines MH370 has gone dark

[stuckathuntermtn]

Electrical failures/fires are too easy an explanation. Too dull for the 24hr news cycle.
Would you actually pass out right away if there was decompression at around 30,000'? I know people need oxygen and to acclimate and whatnot, but Mt Everest is 29,000' and people get hypoxic, surely, but they don't just fall over.
If I'm not mistake, airliners are pressurized to the equivalent of 10,000', so you'd actually be in a high altitude environment already. Not 0 to 30,000.

[From_the_NEK]

Electrical failures/fires are too easy an explanation. Too dull for the 24hr news cycle.
Would you actually pass out right away if there was decompression at around 30,000'? I know people need oxygen and to acclimate and whatnot, but Mt Everest is 29,000' and people get hypoxic, surely, but they don't just fall over.
If I'm not mistake, airliners are pressurized to the equivalent of 10,000', so you'd actually be in a high altitude environment already. Not 0 to 30,000.

Airliners are pressurized to 8000-10000' equivalent I think. Everest climbers spend a significant amount of time acclimating to the thin atmosphere. Would a rapid decompression at 30,000' cause a mild case of the bends (roughly equivalent to a fast surfacing from 25' deep in water)? Probably not enough to pass out. But then it is also going to be REALLY cold. I don't think either the depressurization and cold is enough to kill most people in a few seconds. Maybe 10-15 minutes and most will have passed out and then frozen to death.

[char]

From what I have read it is something like 15-20 seconds to before you pass out if there is a rapid decompression.

[Ted Striker]

RE: the good night radio call. That's a red herring perpetuated by people who don't know anything. Everyone says good night. And good morning/afternoon/day/evening, so long, see ya... and where I usually go, hola, buenos dias, buen dia, buenas tardes, buenas noches, hasta luego, adios...

During the superbowl, people were signing off "go hawks!" Imagine how many airplanes would've gone missing if Denver won.

Actually CDMA is not very popular outside of North America.

I know, but Asia is the other place where it is popular.

we should be able to meet our pilots before boarding, not afterwards.

You can. In the line at starbucks. I'll be the guy in the white shirt.

CNN (Conjecture News Network)

Too true. I watched about an hour's worth yesterday. Drowning in a sea of bullshit. My favorite was the "expert" saying that we need to remove the lock from the door.

But if you make the claim that the autopilot was engaged (as the author/pilot did) wouldn't it take it on a descent to the airport, if that airport was ILS? Once a descent is commenced, that glideslope would be followed even if the crew passed out.

The route is programmed, but without actions from an actual person, the airplane will only make the turns. If a decent has been initiated, the airplane will go down to the altitude that the pilot has selected and level-off. It will never violate anything set on the "master control panel" (MCP) - google if you care.

Without getting too technical, there are additional things that need to be "set up" for the autopilot to fly an ILS. Plus the airplane won't leave a captured altitude without input from someone.

Planes are very good at flying themselves

Popular misconception. Cruise-control is very good at holding your car's speed, but it isn't driving for you. It doesn't steer or brake. The autopilot will hold a heading, and follow a track, but without input from a person, that's all it does.

I like the DST angle. You should call CNN and get your 15 minutes of fame. Those dopes will broadcast anything.

If a neutral stable plane like a 777 is started on a descent it will continue on a descent--it won't return to level flight without input. Whereas a trainer like a Piper Cub will return to level flight without input.

Not really. In that instance, the cub and the triple will act exactly the same. Most civilian aircraft have somewhat positive pitch stability. To establish either aircraft in a stable decent, pitch, power, and trim adjustments need to be made. The simple version for most airplanes is positive in pitch, neutral in yaw, and roll is dependent on design (dihedral/anhedral, sweep, etc).

[char]

My current favorite:

March 16, 2014

Malaysia Airlines Mystery Deepens After Top Disease Experts Rushed To Indian Ocean

By: Sorcha Faal, and as reported to her Western Subscribers


A grim report prepared by the Main Intelligence Directorate of the General Staff of the Armed Forces (GRU) on Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 is stating today that within 24-hours of this aircrafts “diversion” to the highly secretive Indian Ocean US military base located on the Diego Garcia atoll, no less than four flights, within the past week, containing top American and Chinese disease scientists and experts have, likewise, been flown to there.

According to this report, Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 (also marketed as China Southern Airlines flight 748 through a codeshare) was a scheduled passenger flight from Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, to Beijing, China, when on 8 March this Boeing 777-200ER aircraft “disappeared” in flight with 227 passengers on board from 15 countries, most of whom were Chinese, and 12 crew members.

As we had previously noted in our report “Russia “Puzzled” Over Malaysia Airlines “Capture” By US Navy,” the GRU had previously notified China’s Ministry of State Security (MSS) of its suspicions regarding this flight due its containing a “highly suspicious” cargo that had been offloaded in the Republic of Seychelles from the US-flagged container ship MV Maersk Alabama.

First arousing the GRU’s concerns regarding this “highly suspicious” cargo, this report continues, was that after its unloading from the MV Maersk Alabama on 17 February, its then transfer to Seychelles International Airport where it was loaded on an Emirates flight bound for Kuala Lumpur International Airport in Malaysia, after first stopping over in Dubai, the two highly trained US Navy SEALS who were guarding it were found dead.

The two US Navy SEALS protecting this “highly suspicious” cargo, Mark Daniel Kennedy, 43, and Jeffrey Keith Reynolds, 44, were found dead under “suspicious circumstances” aboard the MV Maersk Alabama, this report says, further raising Russian intelligence suspicions as they were both employed by the Virginia Beach, Virginia-based maritime security firm The Trident Group which was founded by US Navy Special Operations Personnel (SEAL’s) and Senior US Naval Surface Warfare Officers and has long been known by the GRU to protect vital transfers of both atomic and biological materials throughout the world.

Upon Flight 370’s departure from Malaysia on 8 March, this report continues, the GRU was notified by the MSS that they were going to divert it from its scheduled destination of Beijing to Haikou Meilan International Airport (HAK) located in Hainan Province (aka Hainan Island).

Prior to this planes entering into People Liberation Army (PLA) protected zones of the South China Sea known as the Spratly Islands, however, this report continues, Flight 370 “significantly deviated” from its flight course and was tracked by VKO satellites and radar flying into the Indian Ocean region and completing its nearly 3,447 kilometer (2,142 miles) flight to Diego Garcia.

In a confirmation of the GRU’s assertion that Flight 370 was, indeed, flown to Diego Garcia, this report says, satellite transmission data analyzed by US investigators showed that this planes most likely last-known position was in a zone about 1,609 kilometers (1,000 miles) west of Perth, Australia in the Indian Ocean..

Most troubling to the GRU about Flight 370’s “diversion” to Diego Garcia, this report says, was that it was “nearly immediately” followed by some of the top disease scientists and experts from the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CCDCP) embarking to Diego Garcia on at least four flights.

As to why both American and Chinese disease experts were taken to Diego Garcia where Flight 370 is now known to be, this report says, has as yet not been answered by either of these governments after repeated Foreign Ministry requests for “explanations and clarification.”

What is to be known, this report says, is that as Malaysia has been forced to admit Flight 370 was, indeed, “diverted” from its flight path as the GRU had previously reported, and as at least 25 nations are now involved in searching for it, it remains a mystery as to what is actually occurring.

Also known, this report concludes, is that Diego Garcia as a designated ETOPS emergency landing site for flight planning purposes of commercial airliners transversing the Indian Ocean, and as one of 33 emergency landing sites worldwide for the NASA Space Shuttle, it is “inconceivable” that any type of aircraft, let alone Flight 370, can fly anywhere in the Southern Hemisphere without being tracked, monitored and recorded in totality.

[Ted Striker]

RE: rapid decompression. Useful consciousness above 30K is measured in seconds, not minutes. Slow decompression is the insidious killer.

[strawjack]

.........

"There are a number of critical physiological problems that would be life-ending, likely within seconds," said Peter Wagner, a physician and physiologist at the University of California, San Diego. "Forget about the fact that you don't have a parachute. You would be instantly exposed to very, very low oxygen levels. Within three or four seconds, my guess is that you would be breathing like hell."

Loss of consciousness and death would soon follow purely from oxygen deprivation to the brain, Wagner continued. At the same time, temperatures of -70 degrees Fahrenheit (-57 degrees Celsius) -- made even colder by the chill of 500 mile-per-hour (805 kilometer-per-hour) winds -- would lead to rapid freezing, beginning with the skin, eyes and other surface tissues.

In response to such extreme stress, your nervous system would go haywire, leading to potentially fatal spikes in blood pressure and heart rate. And the sudden change in air pressure would lead to a nasty case of the bends, as if you were scuba diving and came up too fast.

Sounds like a good time

[Tye 1on]

RE: rapid decompression. Useful consciousness above 30K is measured in seconds, not minutes. Slow decompression is the insidious killer.

curious if you got a chance to read the wired article that Labcabin linked? Written by a pilot, it sounded plausible, but disappointingly free of drama...

[cliff notes: fire, possibly nose tire from takeoff, smokes up cockpit/cabin, pilot shuts down all electronics until he can start troubleshooting, turns toward the nearest airport he can land at, then things go downhill. Favorite quote in the article: pilot's priorities are to 'aviate, navigate, and lastly, communicate']

[danimal's dead]

Now that's some good chit char, dead Navy Seals, Biological warfare, Russian spies, I like it.

[BigDaddy]

Now that's some good chit char, dead Navy Seals, Biological warfare, Russian spies, I like it.

Had no idea Tom Clancy posted here...


Pisteoff- Do you think the fire theory is plausible? Smokes out crew/cabin, but doesn't damage plane enough to take it down for four hours? And no "mayday"? (Obvioiusly Char's is the correct theory, but just wondering...)

[Ted Striker]

curious if you got a chance to read the wired article that Labcabin linked

I hadn't, but I have now.

It's as good a theory as any, and better than 99% of what the media is "reporting". He makes a few mistakes that are tells that his isn't an airline pilot, but he definitely is/was a pilot. He also didn't really get the facts right on AC 797 and SR 111, but that's irrelevant.

One thing he touched on that is accurate is that almost everything that's being reported as facts aren't. The Malaysians have changed their story more times than Parvo's ex-roommate. The media is alternating between fixating on minutia (without the least bit of understanding) and pure speculation/fantasy. So any theory that requires one of these elements is pure bunk.

I'm as curious as anyone, and try to clarify some of this stuff to people who don't do it for a living, but I don't have my own theory. I'm just waiting for them to actually find something.

[snapt]

The Malaysians have changed their story more times than Parvo's ex-roommate.

Quoted for awesomeness

[Benny Profane]

So, morbid thought. How long does a body float in the ocean? This is getting old, you know?

I guess I'm not the only one, but, in a time when various law authorities can pinpoint my location using the communication device I carry in my pocket, I find it disturbing that an entire plane/bus can disappear like this.

[BigDaddy]

So, morbid thought. How long does a body float in the ocean? This is getting old, you know?

I guess I'm not the only one, but, in a time when various law authorities can pinpoint my location using the communication device I carry in my pocket, I find it disturbing that an entire plane/bus can disappear like this.

I heard the analogy that looking for a plane in the Indian Ocean is the equivalent of looking for one person in the entire US. Not sure if you've ever been out at sea for any length of time, but there's a lot of water on this planet. Besides, how many times have you misplaced your cell phone or car keys?

[Ted Striker]

Smokes out crew/cabin, but doesn't damage plane enough to take it down for four hours? And no "mayday"?

Yeah, the no mayday is perplexing (but not unprecedented).

The fire thing is usually fast. To use the three that the article mentioned as examples, SR 111 was about 20 mins from discovery to impact. Approx 20 mins for AC 797 as well, and less than 20 for Nigeria (Nationair) 2120.

Some even shorter ones: it only took 13 minutes from take-off for ValuJet 592 to go down. Asiana Cargo 991 was under 10 minutes. China Airlines 120 was on the ground when it caught fire so everyone got out, but when you watch the video, it's amazing how fast the aircraft was destroyed.

[stuckathuntermtn]

No distress call would be consistent with electrical systems failure.
"Goodnight" is usually what people say when they leave even in the wee hours of the morning.
If they were trying to bring the plane back somewhere without the help of ifr aids, then they would have to be at a lower altitude for vfr/visual navigation, landmarks, whatever.
At hundreds of miles per hour, it's. probably pretty easy to get lost way out in the ocean somewhere.

Not very dramatic.

[jma233]

Pisteoff- Do you think the fire theory is plausible? Smokes out crew/cabin, but doesn't damage plane enough to take it down for four hours? And no "mayday"? (Obvioiusly Char's is the correct theory, but just wondering...)

Latest I've heard was that ACARS satellite pings were recorded 7 hrs after the transponder stopped transmitting but with the clusterfuck this story has become who knows if that's actually true.

[Ted Striker]

No distress call would be consistent with electrical systems failure

Nope. It's like redundant and shit.

Unless the actual radio(s) caught fire, there's always power to at least one.

[userA]

Well, breaking news...

No one knows anything. Or at least no one that knows anything is saying anything.

http://www.cnn.com/2014/03/18/world/...html?hpt=hp_t1

this is not why i check in.
b

[Hugh Conway]

Latest I've heard was that ACARS satellite pings were recorded 7 hrs after the transponder stopped transmitting but with the clusterfuck this story has become who knows if that's actually true.

what your "defense contractors" weren't working on a cloaking device?

[jma233]

what your "defense contractors" weren't working on a cloaking device?

Breaking News: MH370 was FOUND with all 239 passengers alive and accounted for inside Hugh Conway's rectum. Doctors are amazed, although it is common knowledge that many men and various small rodents periodically visit the inside of Hugh's asshole, fitting 239 people plus a Boeing 777 inside is being called a modern miracle. More News to follow...

[Tippster]

The simple theory:

http://www.wired.com/autopia/2014/03...ectrical-fire/

Pretty much negated due to the news someone per-programed the turn...

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/18/wo...t.html?hp&_r=0

How so? 8 keystrokes and nobody has to stay to pilot the plane but can help try to put out the fire...

[Benny Profane]

I heard the analogy that looking for a plane in the Indian Ocean is the equivalent of looking for one person in the entire US. Not sure if you've ever been out at sea for any length of time, but there's a lot of water on this planet. Besides, how many times have you misplaced your cell phone or car keys?

Yeah, but, if any average schmoe decided to sail around the world on that same vast expanse of water, they have affordable devices available to them that will immediately send out a signal to satellites that would enable many to pinpoint that distress signal in seconds. Why aren't planes equipped with an automatic, passive device like this? Especially planes that fly over vast expanses of water?

[BigDaddy]

^Yeah, I hear you... seems simple enough.

How so? 8 keystrokes and nobody has to stay to pilot the plane but can help try to put out the fire...

Exactly. Sounds like the thing to do in a fire.


One thing disputing this theory, though, is the fact that the plane took a couple other turns after the programed change of course: http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_te..._langkawi.html

...Take other major findings of the investigation into account, and Goodfellow’s theory falls apart. For one thing, while it’s true that MH370 did turn toward Langkawi and wound up overflying it, whoever was at the controls continued to maneuver after that point as well, turning sharply right at VAMPI waypoint, then left again at GIVAL. Such vigorous navigating would have been impossible for unconscious men.

Goodfellow’s theory fails further when one remembers the electronic ping detected by the Inmarsat satellite at 8:11 on the morning of March 8. According to analysis provided by the Malaysian and United States governments, the pings narrowed the location of MH370 at that moment to one of two arcs, one in Central Asia and the other in the southern Indian Ocean. As MH370 flew from its original course toward Langkawi, it was headed toward neither. Without human intervention—which would go against Goodfellow’s theory—it simply could not have reached the position we know it attained at 8:11 a.m.

[iceman]

Yeah, but, if any average schmoe decided to sail around the world on that same vast expanse of water, they have affordable devices available to them that will immediately send out a signal to satellites that would enable many to pinpoint that distress signal in seconds. Why aren't planes equipped with an automatic, passive device like this? Especially planes that fly over vast expanses of water?

The AD already said they are and he would know.