Avalanche Awareness...does anybody have any?

**Scotty1974** · 03-05-2014, 09:42 AM

Firstly I didn't start this thread to bash anyone or make light of the recent deaths that we've seen. After reading the latest CAIC reports however, I'm pretty much stumped on the why's of all these recent avalanche deaths and injuries. The majority of them seem like textbook avy zones, such as the skier in Loveland Pass that took the 800 foot ride. +35 degrees, above treeline, NW aspect above an avy chute that was crowned by rocks and cliffs.

http://avalanche.state.co.us/caic/ob...p?obs_id=23625

It would be easy to cry "stupidity", but it must be that everyone thinks it can't happen to them or they just have an incredible lack of any avy awareness. I'm certainly no expert by any means, but being on a particular slope when the avy rating is moderate to considerable during a 30 year high is just simply a bad idea.

It's just a shame to see people taken in such an avoidable fashion. What we do is dangerous no doubt, but it can be undoubtedly mitigated.

Be safe out there folks..and wait to ride those cherry lines until it's safer.

**userA** · 03-05-2014, 10:52 AM

the 72hr rule got shortened to 36 with the invention of double wide skis.
b

**My Pet Powder Goat** · 03-05-2014, 11:26 AM

bobby hit the nail on the head.

people are getting on terrain faster then ever. slopes that use to sit for a few days are now getting slayed in a day or two. I don't know if it's due to crowding, or gear, but it's unfortunate.

**Name Redacted** · 03-05-2014, 11:31 AM

More people, more accidents, more publicity of accidents, and patience is running thin in a year with very dangerous very persistent weak layers.

Whoever took the ride in the Steep Gullies was in about the worst place you could be in that area. Don't know who it was, and I'm not MMQBing, but wow were they in a bad spot. I've been riding that area for almost two decades and haven't even set foot back there this year, and I'm usually one of the first back there. Not worth it.

**HeliFreeSawatch** · 03-05-2014, 11:38 AM

Originally Posted by shredgnar

patience is running thin

I think this is the crux of the situation. Everybody wants to get out there and it can be hard to wait.

**icelanticskier** · 03-05-2014, 12:20 PM

Originally Posted by flowing alpy

the 72hr rule got shortened to 36 with the invention of double wide skis.
b

My 72 hour rule doesn't seem so silly now does it? Or my opinion on fat skis

Gear, bc sensationalization, and social media are contributing factors to the bc becoming a shit show.

rog

Hugh Conway · 03-05-2014, 12:48 PM

man, you sound like some pussy who doesn't get after it.

**Albeer** · 03-05-2014, 02:19 PM

Season ain't over yet, but saying fatalities and accidents are abnormal high is wrong. Check Westwide Avalanche Network accident reports. One could argue if there is increased usage and static to fewer fatalities there is some awareness.

**Meadow Skipper** · 03-05-2014, 02:24 PM

I blame the surge in AT gear.

**Tye 1on** · 03-05-2014, 02:41 PM

It hits me even harder when we keep losing savvy, experienced, generally snow-wise folks.

I have three theories, which may or not all be crap.

- people are using their avi education and tools to validate 'go' decisions, not explore whether it's a 'no-go' situation.

- so many tie back to McCammon's Heuristic traps paper, from 12 years ago, [link], but how to get these to sink in/change behavior?

- Yetiman wrote this in another thread, it really resonated with me anyways:
"you have the education to understand what I mean when I say that we're addicts. If we were alcoholics our friends would be dying in car wrecks. If we were junkies our friends would OD. We're skiers so our friends get buried.

I don't know if it's worth it. The sadness, the injuries. The feeling of emptiness and boredom when you try to play it safe. I tend to think the damage was done a long time ago when our brains changed and we started needing speed and danger to feel normal...when life without hauling ass and flying through the air and skiing deep pow started to feel boring and flat. Now we just have to pick our poison: boredom and and emptiness and tedium versus accumulating physical damage and experiencing the tragic loss of friends.

It's a motherfucker quitting, it's a motherfucker not quitting... "

**Shorty_J** · 03-05-2014, 02:51 PM

Originally Posted by Tye 1on

"you have the education to understand what I mean when I say that we're addicts. If we were alcoholics our friends would be dying in car wrecks. If we were junkies our friends would OD. We're skiers so our friends get buried.

I don't know if it's worth it. The sadness, the injuries. The feeling of emptiness and boredom when you try to play it safe. I tend to think the damage was done a long time ago when our brains changed and we started needing speed and danger to feel normal...when life without hauling ass and flying through the air and skiing deep pow started to feel boring and flat. Now we just have to pick our poison: boredom and and emptiness and tedium versus accumulating physical damage and experiencing the tragic loss of friends.

It's a motherfucker quitting, it's a motherfucker not quitting... "

Great quote! Sums up a lot in life, even beyond skiing/avalanches.

**icelanticskier** · 03-05-2014, 04:11 PM

Originally Posted by Hugh Conway

man, you sound like some pussy who doesn't get after it.

You got me, hugh

rog

**hatchgreenchile** · 03-05-2014, 05:42 PM

Well, we always have the benefit of hindsight and a view from 20,000 ft. It’s easy to MMQB when you’ve got a detailed 2 month weather report, complete snow profiles and HD photos from multiple angles. You don’t get these things in the field.

There was a slide in Keystone a few weeks ago that was so unnececcesary. The men involved had no beacons and dropped into an obvious avalanche track on a high danger day into a winter no-mans-land where it was likely they were spending the night. Very obvious mistakes were made before even accounting for the bozos on the cornice.

LL Pass was different. Lots of collective experience, but it didn’t matter. They got caught in a terrain trap and only one survived. This one really made me think…

Some of it’s education. I’ve lost count of how many clowns seen hitchhiking on Berthoud without any gear. Some of it might be new ski and board technology. I know that shredding pow with my NS Raptor is way more fun that the old Rossi I was riding when I was 12. Some of it may be a general inclination towards adventure and exploration.

I really don’t know. If you have a defined answer, you’d probaly have a million dollar book deal.

**DasBlunt** · 03-05-2014, 06:19 PM

It struck me amazing to hear Jeremy Jones say that 50% of the time, they turn away from a line. That is a whole hell a lot of times not riding the zone you set out for.

Most weekend warriors maybe do not have that "luxury".

Maybe that fact forces their hand of perceived scarcity.

Here in Colorado, one bad season and it seems the fever of powder addiction is high.

First world problems.

**char** · 03-05-2014, 06:44 PM

I remember being taught in firefighting that the 0-3 years of experience people get hurt/killed because they lack experience, the 4-10 year group has their accident rate go way down because they know enough to be scared, then the accident rises again after 10 years of experience because they think they have it wired and don't ask the same questions as when they were in the 4-10 year category.

**totaliboard** · 03-05-2014, 07:01 PM

Awareness is essential, but its fairly useless without experience. Like stated, there are too many people with too much gear not riding conservatively enough. I know when its time to turn back, but thats only because ive been knocked on my fuckin ass too many times not too..

**Name Redacted** · 03-05-2014, 07:02 PM

CAIC reporting another rescue in progress in Southern Colorado right now... Hoping for the best.

**totaliboard** · 03-05-2014, 09:06 PM

13 dead in the last 30 days with no end in sight...

**whipski** · 03-05-2014, 09:22 PM

Tracks on the steeps very near where Crest Bowl ripped big this weekend had me wondering.

**newbreak** · 03-06-2014, 08:18 AM

I'm curious to know the ratio of accidents where the parties are parents vs not. Seems like many of my friends who are parents changed their tune and approach immediately after kids were born.

**simplypow** · 03-06-2014, 10:43 AM

Originally Posted by Scotty1974

Firstly I didn't start this thread to bash anyone or make light of the recent deaths that we've seen. After reading the latest CAIC reports however, I'm pretty much stumped on the why's of all these recent avalanche deaths and injuries. The majority of them seem like textbook avy zones, such as the skier in Loveland Pass that took the 800 foot ride. +35 degrees, above treeline, NW aspect above an avy chute that was crowned by rocks and cliffs.

http://avalanche.state.co.us/caic/ob...p?obs_id=23625

It would be easy to cry "stupidity", but it must be that everyone thinks it can't happen to them or they just have an incredible lack of any avy awareness. I'm certainly no expert by any means, but being on a particular slope when the avy rating is moderate to considerable during a 30 year high is just simply a bad idea.

It's just a shame to see people taken in such an avoidable fashion. What we do is dangerous no doubt, but it can be undoubtedly mitigated.

Be safe out there folks..and wait to ride those cherry lines until it's safer.

safety is cyclical AND risk tolerance combined....I was looking at those 1-1,5 a the day before that 8" of heavy SWE fell and was fairly confident they'd ahve skied well.. I also spent an hour on top of the pass wedneday night wathing the snow fell and noticed that it was upside down for the first 4". Knowing this and also that blasting causes an increased chance of SH formation would lead one to avoid tat chute until naturals ran or it was bombed again. These however are things that do not enter the normal assesement critiques because like all slopes they are microscopic and highly ephemeral.

**itsnowjoke** · 03-06-2014, 11:23 AM

Avalanche Awareness...Does Anybody Have Any? Gee, what a loaded question.

The short answer is no, no one has any.

As much as we try to apply science, knowledge, experience, etc., traveling in the backcountry during winter is like playing russian roulette.

Sadly, we have a long list of professional avalanche forecasters and controllers who die every year in slides. If they can't stay out of harm's way, who can?

Then we have the crazy show of the clueless who at my local hill -Canyons- hike through the gate on high probability avalanche days and huck cornices, ski sketchy lines, and do everything we were taught NOT to do, and they walk away unscathed. No beacon, probe, shovel, or educated partner to boot. They are just plain dumb lucky.

We know the probability of Russian roulette. 1:6. But after all of your guessemacating, pit digging, beacon training, line scouting, etc., what is the probability that slope's gonna go? No one knows.

But you knew all of that. Your question referred to the seemingly clueless gapers who are blissfully unaware. They're mostly just lucky, occasionally not.

**wra** · 03-06-2014, 11:56 AM

I've been ski touring for almost 40 years.
Guessing at 3500+ days.
I ski slopes over 35° the vast majority of days.
One long ride in an avalanche during that period with who knows how many close calls.
That's a bit better odds than Russian roulette.
Lucky is the "Dirty Harry Principle". I learned it from Liam Fitzgerald.
Good thing to keep in mind but...hiding under the bed and quivering cuz ya don't feel lucky is stupid.
My "luck" could run out tomorrow or in another 40 years.
I like the odds that experience gives better than dumb luck.

Signed:
Blissfully Unaware

**Bunion 2020** · 03-06-2014, 12:09 PM

Originally Posted by itsnowjoke

Sadly, we have a long list of professional avalanche forecasters and controllers who die every year in slides. If they can't stay out of harm's way, who can?

A long list? Uh, no.

Considering the exposure and objective dangers faced day to day doing what can be a dangerous job.

No.

Signed;

A reformed A/C worker.

**LightRanger** · 03-06-2014, 12:34 PM

Originally Posted by itsnowjoke

Avalanche Awareness...Does Anybody Have Any? Gee, what a loaded question.

The short answer is no, no one has any.

As much as we try to apply science, knowledge, experience, etc., traveling in the backcountry during winter is like playing russian roulette.

Sadly, we have a long list of professional avalanche forecasters and controllers who die every year in slides. If they can't stay out of harm's way, who can?

Then we have the crazy show of the clueless who at my local hill -Canyons- hike through the gate on high probability avalanche days and huck cornices, ski sketchy lines, and do everything we were taught NOT to do, and they walk away unscathed. No beacon, probe, shovel, or educated partner to boot. They are just plain dumb lucky.

We know the probability of Russian roulette. 1:6. But after all of your guessemacating, pit digging, beacon training, line scouting, etc., what is the probability that slope's gonna go? No one knows.

But you knew all of that. Your question referred to the seemingly clueless gapers who are blissfully unaware. They're mostly just lucky, occasionally not.

Go back to trolling the Ski Link thread?