Jeff Masters Blog: California Drought/If GW why is it so Cold?

[uglymoney]

The other thread turned into a useless shit slinging event per the inevitable. A new informational very relevent post on Dr. Jeff Masters blog that I think a lot of people will want to read. Those of you who don't care what scientists think should skip it.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html


California's first significant snow storm of 2014 hit the Sierras on Wednesday and Thursday, dumping up to 2 feet of snow, with a melted water equivalent of up to two inches. However, this modest snowstorm was not enough to keep the Sierra snowpack from recording its lowest snow amounts in more than 50 years of record keeping during Thursday's Sierra Snow Survey. The survey found a snow pack that was only 12% of normal for this time of year. Until Thursday, the lowest statewide snowpack measurement at this time of year was 21% of average, in 1991 and 1963, according to the Los Angeles Times. Since snowpack in the Sierras forms a crucial source of water for California, the dismal snow survey results are a huge concern.

The forecast: little drought relief in sight
One of the most persistent and intense ridges of high pressure ever recorded in North America has been anchored over the West Coast since December 2012. While the ridge has occasionally broken down and allowed low pressure systems to leak though, these storms have mostly brought spotty and meager precipitation to California, resulting in California's driest year on record during 2013. January 2014 could well be its driest January on record. The ridge inevitably builds back after each storm, clamping down on any moisture reaching the state. Since rain-bearing low pressure systems tend to travel along the axis of the jet stream, these storms are being carried along the axis of the ridge, well to the north of California and into Southeast Alaska, leaving California exceptionally dry. The latest runs of the GFS and European models show that the ridge is now building back, and it appears likely that California will see no significant precipitation until at least February 7. A weak upper level low will move along the coast on Sunday and spread some light rain along the immediate coast, but this precipitation will generally be less than 0.25"--too little to have any significant impact on the drought. The ridge will not be as intense when it builds back, though, which gives me some hope that a low pressure system will be able to break the ridge by mid-February and bring the most significant rains of the winter rainy season to California.

<snip>

If There's Global Warming...Why Is It So Cold?‬
It's been top-ten coldest January on record in the Upper Midwest, and much colder than average over much of the Eastern U.S. However, the that isn't the case over other portions of the globe, including the Western U.S. and Alaska. Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt analyzes the situation in his latest post, How Cold has this January been in the U.S.? He concludes, "this January’s average temperature nationally has probably been close to normal since the western half of the nation has been almost as much above average as the eastern half was below average. The only region that will most likely have experienced a TOP 10 coldest January will be the Upper Midwest." In the U.S., only four stations set all-time low minimum temperature records in January, compared to 34 that set all-time high maximum temperature records. I've been monitoring global temperatures this month, and it appears likely that January will rank between the 5th and 15th warmest January since record keeping began in 1880. Of particular note were the amazingly warm January temperatures in the Balkans. According to weather record researcher Maximiliano Herrera, "over 90% of all stations in the Balkans from Slovenia to Croatia to Bosnia to Serbia To Montenegro to Macedonia to Kosovo etc, have DESTROYED their previous record of warmest January ever (many locations have 100 - 200 years of data.) In many cases the monthly temperatures were 7 - 9°C (13 - 16°F) above average, and the new records were 3 - 4°C above the previous record. This is for THOUSANDS of stations, almost all of them. In Slovenia, for example, Mount Kredarica is the only station in the whole country not to have set its warmest January on record."

[rideit]

Looking for ice...in all the wrong places

[hortence]

1. Let's get this trope out of the way right now -- It's climate not weather.

2. The substance of the article contradicts the headline.

If There's Global Warming...Why Is It So Cold?‬

But then goes onto note that many monitoring stations worldwide are in the process of recording the warmest January on record.

3. I am not sure of the point that you want to make.

4. Back to point one. It's perfectly reasonable to expect these kinds of fluctuations.

[ill-advised strategy]

1. Let's get this trope out of the way right now -- It's climate not weather.

2. The substance of the article contradicts the headline.
But then goes onto note that many monitoring stations worldwide are in the process of recording the warmest January on record.

3. I am not sure of the point that you want to make.

4. Back to point one. It's perfectly reasonable to expect these kinds of fluctuations.

dear god man...

The title of the article poses a question then the body of the article answers the question.

The point is to discuss the dubious basis of a commonly parroted sentiment...to provide some answer to what is most often posed as a rhetorical.

[hortence]

dear god man.

The title of the article poses a question then the body of the article answers the question.

The point is to discuss the merits of a commonly parroted sentiment.

Maybe too subtle for me I admit. Or maybe I've too much of a hair trigger today.

The merits ... My gut says it's a meaningless thing to say. It's like saying Seurat wasn't a painter because they were just a bunch of dots. But I'm not a climatologist.

[rideit]

What...IS a rhetorical question?

[Benny Profane]

Well, shit, how about that. The weather gets freaky every now and then. It actually changes, sometimes dramatically. That's new.

[hortence]

Blankets .... how do they work.

Insane Klown Posse, I'm a juggalo.

[theshredder]

I come at this from a physics perspective. I don't care what tree-rings, ice-cores, models, etc. say. That stuff is all beating a dead horse.

This is what killed it, post 7: http://www.physicsforums.com/showthread.php?t=243619

Economists and lawyers have no place questioning the physical assumptions made in that link, since their assumptions deal with the behaviour human behaviours, which is like total chaos.