Thread: Brokered convention a near certainty.

Romney needed 49.9% of the remaining delegates (assuming proportional delegate representation) in order to wrap up the nomination in time for the convention.
Santorum just routed Romney in Kansas. It's even more of a stretch to think that Santorum could get the 60% he needs to wrap up the nomination.

My money is on a brokered convention.

Who will the nominee end up being after the convention voting is wrapped up?

All bets are off. It could end up being someone that hasn't even been in the running.
Hell, it could even end up being Ron Paul. However unlikely, it IS a possibility.

If I had to bet I would say that Romney will NOT be the Republican candidate for president.

hope springs eternal (for the eternally naive)

Originally Posted by Pillsbury

Romney needed 49.9% of the remaining delegates (assuming proportional delegate representation) in order to wrap up the nomination in time for the convention.
Santorum just routed Romney in Kansas. It's even more of a stretch to think that Santorum could get the 60% he needs to wrap up the nomination.

My money is on a brokered convention.

Who will the nominee end up being after the convention voting is wrapped up?

All bets are off. It could end up being someone that hasn't even been in the running.
Hell, it could even end up being Ron Paul. However unlikely, it IS a possibility.

If I had to bet I would say that Romney will NOT be the Republican candidate for president.

The only person they would dump Romney for would be Jeb. Not Jer, Jeb.

I say Mittens still gets it. He is still the GOP establishment top pick and has the best on the ground organization. Any new comer would have to start from scratch and would hand BO the election.

When it comes to second round and more voting at the convention it won't matter if Romney is the establishment pick.
Shit's gonna get rowdy.
Pledged delegates can vote however they want in the second round. If you've been paying any attention you know that Paul supporters have been running as delegates. A lot of the pledged delegates are Paul supporters. Second round vote could surprise the hell out of people.

It could, but I think the GOP has a tighter reign on the delegates then people want to think. In the end they will do what the party bosses want, which is to run Mittens. He has the structure in place to run a campaign, and is the only candidate with a structure who has a chance to beat BO.

Someone like Bush 3.0 would be too late in the game to run an effective campaign. Santorum might, but the powers that be in the GOP just don't want him running since he will likely get trounced in the general. Nobody of importance thinks Paul has a chance, but it would be entertaining.

I still doubt it will go to a brokered convention since it would be too detrimental to the GOP in general. I am not sure just how they are going to avoid it, but those who control the GOP will manage some power deals somewhere.

Of course I could be wrong, and Paul wins ever state and delegate from here on out and wins the general in a landslide.

Yeah right.

Right. I predict that if there is a second vote, you will be surprised by how few vote for Paul, and how many vote for Romney. Because you are naive.

Originally Posted by ilikecandy

Right. I predict that if there is a second vote, you will be surprised by how few vote for Paul, and how many vote for Romney. Because you are naive.

You obviously don't understand the delegate process. You should check out what's happening in nevada right now for an example. Paul may only be polling at 10-15% but a huge percentage of those are being active in the party while gingrich and santorum suupporters aren't. Romney has good organization as well. First vote will definitely go to romney then santorum and lastly paul. 2nd vote will be a crapshoot, but there will be a huge increase in votes for paul because all of the paul supporters that are acting as pledged delegates will be legally able to vote for paul.

I am not saying paul will win, but you're the one being naive. Its not your fault though, most of America doesn't understand the process.

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LOL. It has nothing to do with not understanding the process, and everything to do with understanding reality. Again, if there even is a second vote, I bet a dollar that naive, idealistic people like you will be more surprised by the results than pragmatic, jaded people like me

Originally Posted by ilikecandy

LOL. It has nothing to do with not understanding the process, and everything to do with understanding reality. Again, if there even is a second vote, I bet a dollar that naive, idealistic people like you will be more surprised by the results than pragmatic, jaded people like me

Let's make it 20 to the non profit of the winners choice. Terms: if there is a brokered convention and the 2nd vote results in more votes for paul than the 1st vote I win.

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Either way it will be fun. Hope I get to go to Tampa.

Originally Posted by Tippster

Hope I get to go to Tampa.

maybe the first time these words have ever been typed

Originally Posted by ilikecandy

maybe the first time these words have ever been typed

No...

Hope I get to go to Tampa.
-John Gruden

Fine. Anyone NOT trying to escape the clutches of Al Davis

I've never registered to a particular party and on election forms I list yself as an independant, so I must admit I'm a little wanting in party primary/delegate convention logistics. What exactly is a 'brokered' convention?

I'm starting to think parties essentially suck and cause way more harm than good. Do we still need the damn things???

Much of election and party/convention rules were penned when large swaths of the general population were wholly unschooled regarding civics and many could neither read nor write...this made such a representative legislature a smart move...as much of the population didn't have the education to understand governmental issues in general. Such is no longer the case....as a norm, our 'average' citizen of today is much more educated and informed. Back in the late 1700s, that was NOT the case.

I think parts of the constitution need some substantive changes to reflect a more educated and informed citizenry.

I believe we need a constitutional convention....we need to somehow get that on a voter referendum. It could be as simple as a yes or no question on our next national ballot. If a majority says no....we drop it...no cconstitutional convention. But if the majority of people say yes, then BINGO...one step closer to a constitutional convention.

Representative legislation is causing chincanery and gridlock. We have the tools whereby citizens CAN take part in the legislative process!.. not take it over, but take part. However, we need a constitutional convention to affect such changes. Only way we have a chance of getting a constitutional convention is by voter referendum.

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Originally Posted by Alaskan Rover

I've never registered to a particular party and on election forms I list yself as an independant, so I must admit I'm a little wanting in party primary/delegate convention logistics. What exactly is a 'brokered' convention?

I'm starting to think parties essentially suck and cause way more harm than good. Do we still need the damn things???

Much of election and party/convention rules were penned when large swaths of the general population were wholly unschooled regarding civics and many could neither read nor write...this made such a representative legislature a smart move...as much of the population didn't have the education to understand governmental issues in general. Such is no longer the case....as a norm, our 'average' citizen of today is much more educated and informed. Back in the late 1700s, that was NOT the case.

I think parts of the constitution need some substantive changes to reflect a more educated and informed citizenry.

I believe we need a constitutional convention....we need to somehow get that on a voter referendum. It could be as simple as a yes or no question on our next national ballot. If a majority says no....we drop it...no cconstitutional convention. But if the majority of people say yes, then BINGO...one step closer to a constitutional convention.

Representative legislation is causing chincanery and gridlock. We have the tools whereby citizens CAN take part in the legislative process!.. not take it over, but take part. However, we need a constitutional convention to affect such changes. Only way we have a chance of getting a constitutional convention is by voter referendum.

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A brokered convention is what happens when any one candidate does not have enough delegates to ensure that they will win the nomination after the first vote held at the national convention.
Delegates to the national convention are pledged to vote for a specific candidate. But only for the first vote. They can then vote for whomever they choose for subsequent votes.
There are then deals and compromises made until a specific candidate receives the votes of enough delegates to win the nomination.

Political parties do suck. Very badly. The two party political system that we have is one of the biggest problems of our electoral system.