Thread: 2011-2012 Jackson/Targhee/Tetons/Togwotee Weather, Conditions & Stoke Thread

Ughh. Sucked bad enough watching a forecast 10-20 inches materialize as 3 inches of dust but the long term models are making my stomach hurt. GFS showing no probability of precip for 14 straight days. I'm not ready for spring skiing! But, this has pretty much been a consistent pattern. Appx. 70 days into the season and high pressure blocking has been the prime player for over 50 of those days. If this continues, we'll be very lucky to break 400". If you subscribe to the notion of Lezak's Recurring Cycle, we're kinda set in motion for the season; 2-3 week dry spells punctuated by a week of storms. This looks to be the 3rd 2-3 week high and dry. I've noticed that past seasons do maintain a general flow pattern: mostly zonal flow, mostly high pressure blocked or a sine wave that regularly flips back and forth as ridge and trough pass by. Looks like this is a mostly blocked year, so far.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...14prcp.new.gif


Remember when the Tetons were in the above average POPs for the season? NOAA's done some revising on their seasonal.....

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...off15_prcp.gif

Fuck NOAA, they put out forecasts that rarely hold true, raise hope that only become dashed. This winter has reaffirmed my suspicion that it is impossible to forecast beyond 7 days. I could guess what will happen in the next 14 days just as accuratly as they can forecast using their $$$$ programs.

mountainweather.com is where it's at, Jim Woodmency knows his shit and is pretty dead on for the immediate future.

Originally Posted by SkiJunky05

It's nothing special, but here is a quick edit from the beginning of the storm:

That was fun. Thanks!

Originally Posted by cliffhucker

Fuck NOAA, they put out forecasts that rarely hold true, raise hope that only become dashed. This winter has reaffirmed my suspicion that it is impossible to forecast beyond 7 days. I could guess what will happen in the next 14 days just as accuratly as they can forecast using their $$$$ programs.

mountainweather.com is where it's at, Jim Woodmency knows his shit and is pretty dead on for the immediate future.

Keep in mind it is much easier to forecast no storms than to accurately forecast for snowfall/precip. as well as the amounts.

The high pressure ridge forecast for the Western CONUS looks pretty real to me, maybe not 14 days but the next 10 look dry and mild.

Originally Posted by cliffhucker

Fuck NOAA, they put out forecasts that rarely hold true, raise hope that only become dashed. This winter has reaffirmed my suspicion that it is impossible to forecast beyond 7 days. I could guess what will happen in the next 14 days just as accuratly as they can forecast using their $$$$ programs.

I agree with bunion; NOAA's track record for predicting long term stable conditions is rather good. Not that its much comfort since its the atmosphere's instability that we all care about. But, the GFS has been batting 1.000 this season when forecasting the high pressure lockdown over the lower 48. Its showing a possible storm over the four corners next week but thats about it til mid-feb.

In case you all aren't completely sick of reading about the Taylor avalanche, I sat down with Hope Strong of the Valley Citizen the other night. I think he did a pretty good job of it, only botched a couple of quotes:
http://www.valleycitizen.com/stories...?pkStories=522

ShareThis
Controlling the human factor
February 01, 2012
By Hope Strong

Another personal perspective of the Taylor avalanche

In the days that followed a human-triggered avalanche on Taylor Mountain last week, an equally impressive response occurred within the community of backcountry users. Ongoing discussion has considered the decision-making process used by those recreating in avalanche terrain, but the perspective of one local avalanche expert is unique.

Lynne Wolfe was also skiing on Taylor Mountain last Tuesday when the avalanche occurred. The lines that she and her party laid down on Taylor that day were more conservative, but not by much. One week after the event that has stirred a look at decision-making within the backcountry, Wolfe was teaching a level-two avalanche class in Teton Valley where the human factor was addressed.

“It’s not about whether you go or you don’t go; it’s about where you go,” Wolfe said. “We made the right call, but just barely.”

Just before Wolfe skinned up Taylor to ski the new snow that had been deposited throughout the area by the most significant storm system of this winter season, Wolfe penned an editorial entitled “Wrestling with Powder Demons” for The Avalanche Review, a trade and scientific journal serving members of the American Avalanche Association. Wolfe wrote about how she struggles personally with desire and patience during a year when there is obvious instability in snow conditions.

“…I want to ski. I want to get into those steep filled-in trees and feel the pull of gravity and soft welcome of powder,” Wolfe wrote in the February edition of The Avalanche Review. “I say to myself and my ski partners, ‘The drought surface is now 1.5 meters down, no whumphing or cracking today, let’s go have a look.’ I have high desire and still some uncertainty. Life feels short, powder days at a premium. Where do I find the patience to draw back, to simply go poke around and gather information before making that appropriate decision?”

Wolfe ended by posing the question, “How do you dial your risk tolerance personally and programmatically?”

The two parties of skiers on Taylor Mountain before it slid were led by either professional guides or instructors or both, and Wolfe said she makes personal decisions differently than if she is acting in a professional capacity.

“We do this for a living, but we also do it for fun,” she said. “But whatever decisions we make, we have a greater responsibility to our community. The decision isn’t all about me; it’s about the people above you, the people below you, your family, your friends, those who are going to have to dig you out if you get buried. That doesn’t mean you can’t make a mistake.”

Much of the controversy in the discussions following the avalanche on Taylor has centered around the fact that the slide was intentionally triggered above the Coal Creek drainage, a well-used route used by those who are not willing to take higher risk while recreating.

Wolfe’s opinion is that the problem within the snowpack was underestimated before the avalanche was triggered, and it went bigger than anticipated. No one was injured following the slide, but the desire of backcountry skiers and the uncertainty of snow are two factors that remain. Moving past the near-miss of a tragedy, Wolfe addressed the mystery in snowpack even within a community that is highly educated and experienced.

While teaching a man that was training with NASA, Wolfe told him that avalanche study is rocket science; in some ways, it is more complex dealing with a viscoelastic material that is near its melting point.

“When you have high levels of desire and uncertainty, that is gambling,” Wolfe said. “I don’t want to eliminate desire. That’s where you get inspiration.”

Wolfe suggested that the motivation for backcountry users to venture into the uncontrolled areas during the winter is not only to carve turns down steep pitches. With conditions changing constantly, it’s about the constant evaluation that needs to take place in order to make informed decisions.

“If you want to ride that type of terrain, you’ve got to do your homework,” she said. “You’ve got to determine if the threat of an avalanche is detectable and is it manageable, but we’re not a patient people.”

On a bluebird day following a winter storm, those with just the most fundamental understanding of avalanche hazards may go to the Bridger-Teton National Forest Backcountry Avalanche Hazard & Weather Forecast for the 7 a.m. report. There danger levels are assessed between low and extreme, but Wolfe stressed that considerable danger still carries with it the likelihood of human-triggered avalanches.

“Would you go into a bar if the chances of getting into a fight were likely?” Wolfe asked. “It’s all about terrain choices. If you don’t have the knowledge, dial back your slope angle.”
Slope, weather, snowpack and human factors are four key elements that every backcountry user should consider, but it shouldn’t stop there. In addition to the 7 a.m. forecast, the BTNF Web site also includes a more comprehensive narrative of observations in its 5 p.m. forecast, a resource that considers all the elements of an entire day.

“All the information is out there, and you need to use every resource to start to form your own picture,” Wolfe said.

Like the party that was skiing the steeper angle pitches on Taylor last week, Wolfe and her party were experienced mountaineers that had done their homework. They observed a change in temperature on the slope they had skied earlier that day and made the decision to ski through the trees before exiting the backcountry. On their way toward the Coal Creek drainage, Wolfe and her ski partner heard a crack like a rifle shot that was followed by a cloud of powder as the avalanche roared beside them. They were not in the path that would have been fatal, but they were close enough that the reality of dangerous backcountry travel was made very real.

Deep instability will likely exist throughout the season on aspects of Teton Pass and throughout the region. Like all those in her field, Wolfe advocated for more knowledge of snow conditions combined with good decision making in order to reduce risk, but she believed the risk would always be present to some degree this season. The consequence is part of the thrill, but the human factor seems to be the one element backcountry users can control.

Thanks for posting that, HMS. The human factor is one factor we can control, but it sure seems to be the most difficult.

“When you have high levels of desire and uncertainty, that is gambling,” Wolfe said.

Well put. And how many would take a casino bet where the odds might be in your favor but, if you lose, the house takes you out back and puts a bullet in your head. Powder must be a hell of a payout to some but I've already had many hundreds of powder days so the risk/reward ratio seems a little out of line to me.

The Tetons were kind to us yesterday.




There's nothing like the feeling of sliding down a big ol' mountain, with perfect snow under your feet and perfect skies up above.
















No signs of instability noted. That early season facet layer was buried waaay down deep.

^^ looks like mini golf in the red-top meadows area

nice =)

beautiful tour on the lake from the dam to an island

someone sent me this email...

"Found in the Coal Creek parking lot on Saturday February 4th, 4 PM, black camera in case. Call to identify and claim. 208-456-3556"


thanks for the skin-track yesterday pp...was surprised to see tracks over there. why didn't you center-punch it?

From 02.03.12

Inverted out there today. Seemed like solar aspects were wet or moist at 1 or earlier. Still found good snow on non-solar aspects. Anybody been higher than 11k since the storm broke?


Simb and I made turns on Tog yesterday



Up


Down





Photo: Simb

Shoot the moon and buck shot skied great today! I'm sure Aaron will put up a TR soon but here's a sneak peek.

WY mags, some local beta needed real bad. I realize I am not worthy and most likely the biggest jong out there but I beg for mercy. I am in the Teton Village for 7 days with all my touring gear & the thought of riding groomers for a week is making me sad. I hiked Sheridan Ridge to Crags today and found some soft pockets along with some of most spectacular views I have seen in a while. So any jong like activities off piste, slack country or BC that you guys could recommend for this gaper would be greatly appreciated and most definitely rewarded with copious amounts of alcohol &/or 420 paid for by me.

Couple of shots from the ridge...

nice shots of olive oil and the spaghetti chutes. the peak on the left in the first shot is super off limits... bighorn sheep critical winter range

Fine times on the west slope above Baldy Knoll yurt last week...

I have 6 Jackson Hole Mountain Resort 1/2 price vouchers (good for any day/ no restrictions) that I'm looking to sell. Send me a PM if you're interested.

PowerWhore7... I don't usually show strangers around the backcountry. The Headwall/ Crags is a good (controlled) area to explore. You may also want to explore south of the resort boundary (i.e. Rock Springs)... this terrain is somewhat easier to navigate and holds less consequences (avalanches, cliffed-out zones, etc.). Use the lower Rock Springs gates for your first runs... there are some really tricky cliff bands just beyond the upper Rock Springs gate. Teton Pass is also a good place to check out... park on top of the Pass and head up the Glory bootpack on the north side of the road. Or grab your skins and tour out to the south.
There are a lot of tracks to follow since it hasn't snowed for a while... but remember that there are a lot of people skiing crazy lines, so never rely/ trust following tracks. Be avalanche aware (http://www.jhavalanche.org/viewTeton). Your best bet is to hire a guide... JHMR guides are some of the best anywhere and can show you the goods.

Also in town for week, granite worth the slog out? Shooting up Cody this morning, look for the really hungover guys getting in your way on the hike. Thanks.

Originally Posted by LiveTheDream

PowerWhore7... I don't usually show strangers around the backcountry. The Headwall/ Crags is a good (controlled) area to explore. You may also want to explore south of the resort boundary (i.e. Rock Springs)... this terrain is somewhat easier to navigate and holds less consequences (avalanches, cliffed-out zones, etc.). Use the lower Rock Springs gates for your first runs... there are some really tricky cliff bands just beyond the upper Rock Springs gate. Teton Pass is also a good place to check out... park on top of the Pass and head up the Glory bootpack on the north side of the road. Or grab your skins and tour out to the south.
There are a lot of tracks to follow since it hasn't snowed for a while... but remember that there are a lot of people skiing crazy lines, so never rely/ trust following tracks. Be avalanche aware (http://www.jhavalanche.org/viewTeton). Your best bet is to hire a guide... JHMR guides are some of the best anywhere and can show you the goods.

You are the man, thank you! TGR fucking rocks...

Is the lower Rock Springs entrance the one with the BCA checkpoint at the bottom of the Rendezvous bowl or the one below it on the Rendezvous trail?

Originally Posted by PowerWhore7

You are the man, thank you! TGR fucking rocks...

Is the lower Rock Springs entrance the one with the BCA checkpoint at the bottom of the Rendezvous bowl or the one below it on the Rendezvous trail?

Skier's right of the beacon basin at the bottom of Rendezvous bowl. The one on R-Trail leads into an area called Why Not.

JHMR Half Price Tickets

I have 6 Jackson Hole Mountain Resort 1/2 price vouchers (good for any day/ no restrictions) that I'm looking to sell. Send me a PM if you're interested.

PM sent.

JHMR Half Price Tickets are sold... thanks for the interest... sorry I couldn't help out everyone.