Thread: Buy stocks

Originally Posted by JimmyCarter

It's two sides of the same coin - supply vs demand. Your higher output is only good if people want to actually buy everything you're creating, but people didn't have the money, despite putting in more hours, because wages didn't increase in stride.

My "everybody" comment was directed to DBT's 'Obama did it' and your 'It happened during the bush years too'. It's both sides of the political spectrum. It's Wall Street, K Street, Madison Ave, and Main St. It's not 'everybody' but it's every group in turn.

That’s the question. Separate out the $600 billion in equity people took from their homes in 2006, for instance, and why can’t America consume and produce at the pre-2007 Great Recession GDP trendline? Are there factors other than increased uncertainty about the future forcing us into a Great Retraction? There’s very little in the way of output capacity stopping us. Wage pressure due to globalization is an issue but exports are up. Apart from some commodity price hikes, inflation remains low.

What's left is uncertainty about the future value of our ingenuity, business arrangements, and our government. “Everybody’s” misjudgments were not some random feedback loop that went horribly wrong. They were the result of a set of organizational failures that systematically corrupted gatekeepers to make and accept ill-advised estimates, and to bypass control arrangements intended to keep valuations in check. Everybody’s mistake was in trusting professional institutional investors and core financial intermediaries to make risk evaluations about the soundness of our wealth but we are not forced to produce less, we are choosing to.

The botoxed & blowdried bloodsuckers on CNBS & Bloomberg are losing their fucking minds. I love it.

Originally Posted by Triage

That’s the question. Separate out the $600 billion in equity people took from their homes in 2006, for instance, and why can’t America consume and produce at the pre-2007 Great Recession GDP trendline? Are there factors other than increased uncertainty about the future forcing us into a Great Retraction? There’s very little in the way of output capacity stopping us. Wage pressure due to globalization is an issue but exports are up. Apart from some commodity price hikes, inflation remains low.

What's left is uncertainty about the future value of our ingenuity, business arrangements, and our government. “Everybody’s” misjudgments were not some random feedback loop that went horribly wrong. They were the result of a set of organizational failures that systematically corrupted gatekeepers to make and accept ill-advised estimates, and to bypass control arrangements intended to keep valuations in check. Everybody’s mistake was in trusting professional institutional investors and core financial intermediaries to make risk evaluations about the soundness of our wealth but we are not forced to produce less, we are choosing to.

Add leveraging to that mix. Every entity than can, has from banks to govts.

picked up a chunk of EXK at 9.....adding back a chunk of PAAS under 30

Originally Posted by Triage

What's left is uncertainty about the future value of our ingenuity, business arrangements, and our government. “Everybody’s” misjudgments were not some random feedback loop that went horribly wrong. They were the result of a set of organizational failures that systematically corrupted gatekeepers to make and accept ill-advised estimates, and to bypass control arrangements intended to keep valuations in check. Everybody’s mistake was in trusting professional institutional investors and core financial intermediaries to make risk evaluations about the soundness of our wealth but we are not forced to produce less, we are choosing to.

I do not understand this stuff at the same level you do but I think the slowness in the velocity of money in the overall economy is a result of underlying risk in Banking. The banks went from something like 20% of GDP assets to 60%. The economy is a system and all systems fail, the current system is way too tightly coupled.

I'll use an analogy I understand in an attempt to not sound stupid, O&G platforms. The first crash was the piper alpha, everything is exposed to everything else, a failure in the condensate pumps also destroys the control room which virtually eliminates your ability to fight the fire. A large problem but one that ultimately isn't fatal becomes so because the design of the overall system is too tightly coupled. A domino effect if you will.

In O&G platforms everything was separated after Piper, control rooms tend to not be near stuff that can blow up essentially all critical components got decoupled as much as possible. In the banking sector the opposite happened, the banks got bigger they got even more tightly coupled and the risk that the entire system collapses when the inevitable failure occurs has become even larger. The too big to fail got even bigger.

Last time I looked the money holders like BOFA are trading around half of book value. Investors I think see the underlying problems in these mega banks as well, but the banks are so large and the political will so lacking that I'm not sure what we can actually do about it.

I think a financial system hot spots type map, where you identify how money is connected with particular attention to linchpins for failure in the system is a good start. A more industrial safety type look at things than what we do now.

Lastly until the banks really become more independent and decoupled investors will be worried about systemic failure and I think that is a difficult environment in which to get money moving.

Originally Posted by Triage

That’s the question. Separate out the $600 billion in equity people took from their homes in 2006, for instance, and why can’t America consume and produce at the pre-2007 Great Recession GDP trendline? Are there factors other than increased uncertainty about the future forcing us into a Great Retraction? There’s very little in the way of output capacity stopping us. Wage pressure due to globalization is an issue but exports are up. Apart from some commodity price hikes, inflation remains low.

Stagflation

Originally Posted by ArmadaBC

I think a financial system hot spots type map, where you identify how money is connected with particular attention to linchpins for failure in the system is a good start. A more industrial safety type look at things than what we do now.

This would be a great idea, but near impossible to implement and/or utilize.
You would have to a) somehow aggregate the information, daily, which is practically impossible given the interplay of actual trades/derivative trades/leverage applied and b) put that data to use, which is both too interventionist and too subject to corruption to ever get implemented.

I sure hope Cono Este's tenants didn't kill him.

I'm glad he's not MY financial planner this week.

Hey ass-to-mouth, have you ever seen "Human Centipede "?

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1467304/

A mad scientist kidnaps and mutilates a trio of tourists in order to reassemble them into a new "pet"-- a human centipede, created by stitching their mouths to each others' rectums. Ass-to-mouth.

90% cash for the last 3 months and glad I did it.

Originally Posted by Downbound Train

I'm glad he's not MY financial planner this week.

Hey ass-to-mouth, have you ever seen "Human Centipede "?

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1467304/

A mad scientist kidnaps and mutilates a trio of tourists in order to reassemble them into a new "pet"-- a human centipede, created by stitching their mouths to each others' rectums. Ass-to-mouth.

Looks good. If it's on Netflix I'll check it out.

This bottle blond bimbo on Bloomberg is a total MILF. Susan Li is still my ATF.

Originally Posted by ass-to-mouth

Looks good. If it's on Netflix I'll check it out.

South Park spoofed something along those lines.

Rebalanced near the lows. Down about 3% on the year. Sucks but had to do it. Maybe out of that equity forever!

Thanks Tea Party.

Originally Posted by 4matic

Thanks Tea Party.

You are 100% mental.

What exactly did the Tea Party get passed that would have cause this.

Oh, I get it. You meant to put one of these on that post instead of one of these .

You got me that time. My meter was broken.

Originally Posted by 4matic

Rebalanced near the lows. Down about 3% on the year. Sucks but had to do it. Maybe out of that equity forever!

Thanks Tea Party.

lulz. till your dealer dr. feelgood bernanke comes calling, youll be jumping at that fix

Originally Posted by JimmyCarter

This would be a great idea, but near impossible to implement and/or utilize.
You would have to a) somehow aggregate the information, daily, which is practically impossible given the interplay of actual trades/derivative trades/leverage applied and b) put that data to use, which is both too interventionist and too subject to corruption to ever get implemented.

You forgot c) for many of the players obfuscation is their only advantage. It's AAA, trust me on this

Originally Posted by Hugh Conway

You forgot c) for many of the players obfuscation is their only advantage. It's AAA, trust me on this

I thought that was a given - it's not like said information could ever be "publicly available" - for Bernanke's eyes only.

Originally Posted by Hugh Conway

You forgot c) for many of the players obfuscation is their only advantage. It's AAA, trust me on this

Minsky's econ-o-speak way of putting it:

The policy problem is to design a system of financial institutions that dampens instability. While banks are the central financial institutions of a capitalist economy, banking is a business encased in myth: it is an economic mystery wrapped in an enigma. Bankers are fiduciaries who advise and act in the interest of clients, even as their own income depends upon the services they sell to these same clients. Lines were drawn among commercial, investment, and savings banks aimed at moderating the conflict between the fiduciary and private-profit aspects of banking. Recent experience shows that the institutional lines cannot be sustained when there are large profit opportunities from breaching the lines.


Or, just go with the Animal House theme:

I too want to advise that all liberals should take this downward trend and go all in with stocks. Make sure to tell your broker you want the stock certificates in your hand. That way when toilet paper is worth more than the certificates, you will still be able to wipe your ass.

Asshat, I am still here, but they are late with the rent. A 10% pullback and I said id be happier for the long term. At this rate, bonds will have no where left to go. That danger is infinitely more.

Originally Posted by ArmadaBC

Last time I looked the money holders like BOFA are trading around half of book value. Investors I think see the underlying problems in these mega banks as well, but the banks are so large and the political will so lacking that I'm not sure what we can actually do about it.

I think a financial system hot spots type map, where you identify how money is connected with particular attention to linchpins for failure in the system is a good start. A more industrial safety type look at things than what we do now.

Lastly until the banks really become more independent and decoupled investors will be worried about systemic failure and I think that is a difficult environment in which to get money moving.

I think the loosely coupled versus tightly coupled is the right analogy. The question is how to direct the evolution of banks by favoring stable arrangements and discouraging destabilizing institutions and practices?


There is a relationship between the size of a bank and the size of business it can service. A loosely coupled banking system with many small and independent banks is conducive to an economic structure made up of mainly small and medium-size firms. Similarly, a highly concentrated banking system made up of large banks with branches throughout the country is conducive to high concentration all carrying an implied public guarantee because they are too big to fail.

Therefore the banking laws and their administration should be structured to foster and encourage the growth and prosperity of autonomous, smaller banks capable of serving all the need of smaller-midsize firms. Wall Street should not be the entire economy. Bankers, motivated by the partnership in which the client's prosperity determines the banker's profit; functioning as investment and merchant bankers as well as commercial bankers; they should be allowed to underwrite and place equity and bond issues of smaller companies rather than handing off some of the more specialized offerings to distant Wall Street organizations.

Things are now so far tilted towards large banks that such a change is difficult to bring about.

However, how such a system might operate would be to move the regional Federal Reserve Bank away from being completely subservient to NY’s open-market operations and instead provide bank reserves by discounting bank assets thus making bank reserves and the money supply a function of productive capacity — with each bank having access to a line of credit at the discount window set by the regional Federal Reserve bank which sets the reserve requirements and the capital requirements.

Originally Posted by ass-to-mouth

I sure hope Cono Este's tenants didn't kill him.

Greatest Bull Call Flop in TGR history.

Originally Posted by Bunion

90% cash for the last 3 months and glad I did it.

Today was pay back as I have been 100% cash forever.
TZA 48.40 +7.38 +17.99%
VXX 28.89 +4.81+19.98%
FAZ 59.29 +7.54+14.57%

What will tomorrow bring as people are going to be fucking shell shocked when they here the Dow closed down 500 points. Tomorrow could be EPIC.

Originally Posted by liv2ski

Greatest Bull Call Flop in TGR history.



Today was pay back as I have been 100% cash forever.
TZA 48.40 +7.38 +17.99%
VXX 28.89 +4.81+19.98%
FAZ 59.29 +7.54+14.57%

What will tomorrow bring as people are going to be fucking shell shocked when they here the Dow closed down 500 points. Tomorrow could be EPIC.

He did say hold for 10 years.

Also, the flow of information is pretty fluid these days. If they market is down tomorrow it won't be because someone sat down to breakfast opened up the paper and said oh shit the market was down 500 points yesterday, better get out. Anyone who cares knew before the market closed what was going on.

I have not owned anything in my personal accts since May 2007 ( i have a maggot witness). Partly because I hated what I saw, but also partly because i was getting divorced. So I went to cash and defcon 1 for a few reasons. But I had actually began selling in dec 2006 before i got hit over the head with a lawyer and frying pan. My trading/work accts are something else, but that ended in summer 2009 and those involved option positions.

There has been tremendous volatility in the 10 plus yrs since DOW 10k. Numbers have improved dramatically since then. Ive traded around good support numbers from 1050-1120 in the SP going back almost as long. Thats where I get the -"10% and id be happier number". Maybe I am old school, but I believe smart money sells rallies in treasuries and buys equities eventually.

My retirement funds have been going back in this week, Large Cap value mostly and still some bullets left. Not perfectly, but not a disaster for me.

If obama can fail harder than Bush, with a global meltdown, then I guess they got me.

Originally Posted by Cono Este

My retirement funds have been going back in this week, Large Cap value mostly and still some bullets left. Not perfectly, but not a disaster for me.

If obama can fail harder than Bush, with a global meltdown, then I guess they got me.

I am saddened that my years of posting "the sky is going to fall", fell on deaf ears. Now is not the time to be in anything but cash or a short position IMO. But we are all big boys and I have been heckled for the last year here, so if you guys want to stay in, whatever.