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Thread: Buy stocks
07-28-2011, 04:07 PM #1
and hold. that is all.
first time in 10 yrs ive said that.
(hold for 10 too)
07-28-2011, 04:17 PM #2
07-28-2011, 04:18 PM #3
Theory on the call?
07-28-2011, 04:56 PM #4
Mkt "wants to go up". 10 yrs of volatility, 10 yrs of good company's cleaning up their books, zero bond returns, had a 10% pull back already, i like it. If the mkt pooped 10% id be really happy to buy into high grade stocks. Every day we get closer, I am all in, boner high long the mkt for the long term. All these fear mongers out there too right now.
07-28-2011, 05:33 PM #5Registered User
- Join Date
- Jun 2009
i'd wait to see what the credit agencies do right now, thats a pretty big matzo ball hanging out there
07-29-2011, 06:49 AM #6
Your going to have to wait for QE3 before going long stocks. I wouldn't touch a long buy with a 10 foot pole today. More like TIMBER!!!!
07-29-2011, 07:21 AM #7Silent....but shredly.
07-31-2011, 01:20 PM #8
Budget resolution around the corner. The markets will pump hard on the hopium injection early this week. All time high on the S&P around the corner? Time to buy UPRO for the rally back to $85? What say the Bulls?
07-31-2011, 01:35 PM #9
I bought stock on Friday and I'm nervous for this week. A of technical damage off the last high and we really need to hold 1300 SPX to stay positive as I doubt 1250 will hold on the next trip down. Market could go either way on the news. It could easily be a "sell the news" event. The e-mini had a wide closing range on Friday so an open range +-10 points would be nothing.
That said. I consider companies safe investments compared to most sovereign nations.
I don't see all time high on SPX for at least 18 months.
I do expect an all time high for German Dax sooner. Perhaps this year which is why I'm also overweight large cap international.
Edit: SPX e-mini opened up 18 points this afternoon to near last Wednesday's close. I'm not confident in it holding but 1320 SPX cash tomorrow is possible.
Last edited by 4matic; 07-31-2011 at 04:37 PM.
08-01-2011, 10:20 AM #10
4matic for the win so far (as the other bulls went into hiding). Dow down 125 on budget jitters and the S&P at 1276 (come on 1255 flush). Will it rally if the deal passes (as it has rallied on any and all news whether good or bad for the year) or in fact will they finally sell the news (as really, the budget agreement blows).
Frankly, I would prefer a huge tank, so I could do the shorts I have waited forever for and then move into all rental properties.
08-01-2011, 10:27 AM #11
The DAX falling apart is really bad news.
I don't think the vote matters at this point. Market is pretty well broken and hanging on by a thread, although, SPX is only .5% lower than Friday's low. A close above 1282 could be called a minor victory for the bulls.
Economic news is trumping debt deal and the news ain't good.
08-01-2011, 11:00 AM #12
Still dick deep in Au/Ag and added back some high beta miners Friday. There's always a bull market somewhere.Silent....but shredly.
08-01-2011, 11:03 AM #13
08-01-2011, 11:10 AM #14I've been to two state fairs and a goat fuck and never seen anything like this!!
08-01-2011, 11:16 AM #15
08-01-2011, 11:19 AM #16
"What just happened in Dax Futures? Lots and lots of questions on what just happened in dax futures and the exchange are unable to say too much but it appears that there was possibly a fat finger that triggered a vol break (vol break lowest indication at 2500) . What we can see is at 16:38:22 London time the market moved from 6950 to 6860 in the same second, trading a little under 1000 contracts. As we stand no one has claimed a mis-trade so all fills are good and no trades have been busted".
08-01-2011, 11:45 AM #17Silent....but shredly.
08-01-2011, 01:01 PM #18
I don't want to see anyone on this board get fucked over (well maybe one or two) but it appears to be a Friday deja vu with not enough votes once again. Keep an eye on the The Hill's Whip Count which summarizes what the mood of republicans and democrats is as we go into the vote. Unless Boehner can convince enough republicans to share his opinion, and we do get a failed vote, it would make the Tarp vote failure pale in comparison with what happens to the market...you remember, 700 point down days.
08-01-2011, 01:10 PM #19
300 point range in the INDU. 40 point range on the SPX e-mini. Flash Crash on DAX.
Who would own equity in this environment?
With BOJ yapping about intervention it's going to be another busy night.
Bonds have been closed for ten minutes now and that is when stocks determine last hour trend. INDU could easily turn positive but that in itself doesn't mean much.
08-01-2011, 01:12 PM #20
08-01-2011, 01:33 PM #21
FWIW, I've been 60/40 cash/stocks and sold 60% of my remaining stock last Wednesday. I'd like to believe the market will rally but don't see many signs. The market (save the NASDAQ) is back up pretty close to historic highs already.
What will push it higher? General economic and private sector job growth? No, people will choose to cut back so they can save up more for retirement since, eventually, SSI and Medicare benefits will drop. Public sector jobs have taken a hit and will continue to. Still more mortgage mess. I do think we'll get something of a presidential election year bump.
Be selective. Companies have alot of cash and the dollar's weak, so focus specific sectors and on takeover candidates. For instance in tech and energy (e.g., independent natural gas companies). Maybe also in finance.My karma ran over your dogma
08-01-2011, 01:46 PM #22
08-01-2011, 06:14 PM #23
Well I sold at 1320, so 19% off. I stand by my "pretty close" statement. Especially when you consider the only two times it was higher than now was (1) during the pre-2001 internet bubble and (2) during the mid 2000's economic and housing bubble. In other words, unless we're in another bubble there's no precedent.
I'm happy with how I did since 2003. My stock holdings rose 8% between appreciation, dividends and averaging down. My cash/bonds didn't do as well obviously, but I think I at least held even with stocks on that side as I disinvested stocks the past 3-4 years.
My theory: The stock market rises in 10X increments every 30-40 years. Between WWII and the early 1980s, the S&P rose and was then range-bound around 100. Since the early 1980s, it's risen and then been range-bound around 1,000. (Yes, I consider +/-50% to be a range.) A lot of the 100-1,000 upswing had to do with corporate restructuring programs. At some point we'll figure out how to break out of the range and start rising to 10,000 assuming we don't F ourselves in some way. I'll be back in but for now playing it safe.
Last edited by bl2000; 08-02-2011 at 10:13 AM. Reason: Too many zerosMy karma ran over your dogma
08-01-2011, 06:20 PM #24
Right now everyone is looking at the Bright Shiny Object, (The debt ceiling increase) and ignoring the downward revisions in the past 2 quarters of GDP.
Scary time to be entering back into equities.
Time to be selective, very selective.
08-02-2011, 08:09 AM #25
I went to full exposure to equity yesterday. 80% equity/20% income. August might be a rocky month but the weekly pattern for stocks is almost identical to last year and I want to be early. It would be nice if the DAX has a good close today but I doubt it.
I'll start to get sick at 1250 SPX and try and puke most of it below 1200.