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Thread: Buy stocks
08-04-2011, 08:31 PM #101
You might be right. I try not to pick tops or bottoms. If your going to get into something, you buy dips or short rallies. I am buying this dip and saw the fear mongers as a reason too. Perhaps we are still range bound, I've obviously decided were not any longer. And if we are still range bound, this is not value above 1050. Personally, I think it takes a systematic failure of some kind to see the capitulation we did in 2008. Maybe its comming, but if not, were not exactly looking at Nasdaq 5000 valuations in quality stocks.
08-05-2011, 01:07 AM #102Registered User
- Join Date
- Feb 2005
- North Vancouver/Whistler
If this is a dip it's just starting IMO. Even my favourite asshugger stock LULU is down
08-05-2011, 01:34 AM #103
08-05-2011, 01:40 AM #104
lulu squeezes more profit out of all the sports clothes manufacturers, just like they squeeze more asses into a medium than anyone else out there
08-05-2011, 03:46 AM #105
Where is the Market headed Next?
Being honest, no one knows. But, using the current road map it appears we may have a little more selling before a decent move higher. Below is the updated 2007 “analog” as compared to the current market. Few interesting points.
The move in 2007 from Point F to the next low was 15.3%. The market then rallied 10% before another leg lower.
The current move from Point F to the current low is 11.1%. Interesting a 15.3% move from Point F would bring the SPX to 1,143 which is the rough target of the head and shoulder’s pattern and where key support levels come into play.
At some point this market will rally and will rally hard. Remember there are a lot of participants who view this selloff as excessive and based on fear. They view the macro data as a soft patch and see the Fed ready to launch QE3. When this market rallies they will be very loud in their “I told you calls.” Many shorts with conviction after a day or two of market strength will in fact panic and begin to believe in the health of the economy contrary to what they know in their heart.
When studying the 2007-08 chart remember Bear Stearns was “bailed out” by JPM in March 2008 which caused a multi month rally that preceded the epic selloff.
My personal view is we are headed for a similar epic selloff. I’m not sure when but suspect it is sooner than most think. BAC breaking down could very well be the modern day LEH failure. We are surrounded by “black swans” right now from rumors of Italian run on the banks to failed Spanish auctions and more.
Vix Skew Divergence
The skew continues to move lower while the vix moves higher meaning volatility is more evenly distributed and “black swan” events are less of a concern among investors. Still based on historical levels the all clear signal for equities is unclear. Below are two charts (1) short term chart that looks like more selling is probable and (2) long term chart to put the current levels in perspective.
I wish I could be more definitive in terms of where markets are headed next based on this signal. Probability would say further selling based on divergence and the 2007 pattern but this market is emotionally charged with lots of leverage. A dangerous combination. Be careful out there, respect stops and don’t be a hero.
Edit: A few more good articles to read if you have insomnia like me
Last edited by liv2ski; 08-05-2011 at 04:18 AM.
08-05-2011, 05:44 AM #106Registered User
- Join Date
- Sep 2006
08-05-2011, 06:31 AM #107
I ain't scared. Bloodied but unbowed. Down 9% from Peak equity and up 90% from the 09 low. Currently 50/20/30 allocation to stocks/bonds/cash. Overweight equity this quarter cost me 4%! Stupid..
Losses are a good lesson.
Good luck to the bears. Too late for me to short.
08-05-2011, 06:39 AM #108
If I hear one more analyst on TV or radio pump the shit out of the equities market or the economy in general I think I might puke.
08-05-2011, 06:49 AM #109
08-05-2011, 07:31 AM #110
I'm not so sure about this 457 plan. It seems it would be easier to move money out of trouble with just stocks/cash. I feel like 457/401ks/IRAs plans keep getting "raided" there seems to be no reason for this decline, companies are making money and laying off employees.
Maybe companies were preparing for a potential default weeks before? Maybe this was all planned out?People should learn endurance; they should learn to endure the discomforts of heat and cold, hunger and thirst; they should learn to be patient when receiving abuse and scorn; for it is the practice of endurance that quenches the fire of worldly passions which is burning up their bodies.
08-05-2011, 07:44 AM #111
08-05-2011, 07:59 AM #112
08-05-2011, 08:50 AM #113Banned
- Join Date
- Oct 2006
The July jobs report was horrible, horrible news for bloodsuckers. They're gonna have to wait a couple weeks longer for the little bald jew to fire up his imaginary printing press.
08-05-2011, 08:59 AM #114
Well, if the vix goes to 40, this will be sustained volatility as everyone is cleaned out and then short it. 31 is not very high.
08-05-2011, 09:47 AM #115
08-05-2011, 10:28 AM #116
Still loading up here, fire sale in the miners.....CHEEEEEEEAAAPSilent....but shredly.
08-05-2011, 12:47 PM #117
08-05-2011, 02:25 PM #118
QE3 is a 100% lock, Fed has no choice........it may get another BS name, might come thru the back door, might not get much fanfare...but it's a comin'............Silent....but shredly.
08-05-2011, 04:40 PM #119Live Free or Die
08-05-2011, 06:40 PM #120
Did some more of this.......Silent....but shredly.
08-05-2011, 10:57 PM #121
08-06-2011, 08:37 AM #122
08-07-2011, 08:50 AM #123
Sunday food for thought ahead of Mondays opening.
While a lot of the stuff I have read has the opinion the downgrade will have a negligible effect on the market Monday, World markets would indicate otherwise:
"Middle East markets, open Sunday through Thursday, were the first to react to the downgrade. Egypt's benchmark EGX30 index fell more than 4 percent, and other Gulf markets also were sharply lower.
Israel's Tel Aviv Stock Exchange delayed the start of the week's first session after pre-market trade showed the benchmark index dropping more than 6 percent because of concerns over the U.S. debt rating cut. Exchange spokeswoman Idit Yaaron said the start was pushed back by 45 minutes "so market players will have time to react logically and not under pressure."
And these comments:
"Danny Riley, Eubanks' MrTopstep colleague and an S&P futures trader who has been trading since the late 1970s, says the inability of the major political parties to work together puts both at fault.
"Had they been decisive early on, even if S&P didn't like the agreement, things could have been different," he says via email. "But all the back and forth, right up until the last minute, left the S&P with no choice."
Riley believes the cut will set off a chain of negative events and that the public would be wise to avoid the markets. "Don't trade," he says, adding an exclamation point. "The reason is the retail accounts don't have enough cash, and one bad trade can wipe out their accounts."
So what's next? Three options, he notes: Liquidate positions, hold your ground or wait for a larger decline that will open up entry points for long positions.
"This will be no different than any other day for us, but we suspect that several hedge funds will be reporting problems, along with margin problems at many of the CME's firms," he says. "Just because the stock market/S&P has sold off 160 handles in the last 10 days does not mean that the markets won't be down sharply. They will be."
Riley has considerable experience, which is particularly valuable at times of outsized uncertainty. Back in 2008, he says, he was arguing that it would be 10 to 15 years before the effects of the credit crisis had been removed from the market.
"Does it mean the U.S. is no longer a good place to invest?," he asks. "No, the U.S. is still the No. 1 stock market in the world. Let the market fall into September, and then look for a big year-end rally."
'Sunday Night, Pray'
Simon Baker, the chief executive of Baker Avenue Asset Management, says he's been completely in cash since the middle of June, when his firm's market sentiment indicators went negative and volatility began to rise sharply.
For Baker Avenue, it won't be a quiet weekend, he explains via email. "We have a special investment committee meeting Sunday afternoon to review all strategies and possible scenarios on Monday," he says, followed by, "Sunday night, pray."
Baker was factoring in about 80% odds that S&P would downgrade the U.S. after its prior warnings and after the debt-ceiling outcome in Washington failed to meet the agency's liking. "We do not think [the downgrade is] aggressive," he says. "Controversial, certainly."
Heading into the week, Baker isn't going to be surprised to see a notable sell-off, but one that would create the conditions to jump back in and buy large-capitalization stocks that have been sold down too far.
"We call these deeply oversold markets a 'blue buy,'" he says. "They have only occurred six times over the past five years and are historically great entry points back into equities."
This is important, because asked whether individual investors should be concerned, he responds: "Yes, very-- if they have a buy and hold strategy."
So it may be a long night watching Asian and European markets for hints as to whether to short everything on Monday. Good trading to you all.
Last edited by liv2ski; 08-07-2011 at 09:02 AM.
08-07-2011, 11:18 AM #124
Tel Aviv closes down 7%.I've been to two state fairs and a goat fuck and never seen anything like this!!
08-07-2011, 02:23 PM #125
Potentially another dumb investing question ... why in the hell did treasuries do well on Friday when the weekly sell off was considered to be driven by general weakness in the US economy? Why would you buy US treasuries at this point other than because it's better than every other choice (including Japan and Switzerland who are actively taking steps to devalue their currency).