When's the "Social Web" bubble going to burst?

[Powow]

Court kills honest web reviews:
http://www.sfgate.com/business/artic...cs-5132790.php
another victory for the legal industry and society pays for the pantsuits, vintage wine, and fake tits.

That one is tough. On one hand, I hate the precedent, but on the other, I think it would fuck over Yelp's tidy little extortion business and I really want that to happen.

[Charlie Don't Surf]

Facebook buys whatsapps for.. $19 billion

[Hott Butt Mud]

Yaaa, holy shit eh?

I've read that it's a huge global market especially in India, but I don't get how this thing will ever make that kind of money?

[JimmyCarter]

Yaaa, holy shit eh?

I've read that it's a huge global market especially in India, but I don't get how this thing will ever make that kind of money?

I think i line up with this take:
Rob Enderle, an analyst with Enderle Group, said, “This is crazy money. I think they massively overpaid for this. They've done it because they are desperate. …They are so worried that they are bleeding users that they are trying to get their user count up by buying companies that have users. But that reminds me so much of some of the strategies of the dotcom era, it's actually giving me chills.”


But i'm sure it really is different this time...

[Hugh Conway]

I've read that it's a huge global market especially in India, but I don't get how this thing will ever make that kind of money?

Because one day in the future we'll pay for web services. And messaging platforms are really hard to put together.


my favorite was the description of Zuckerberg having Lex Luthor like ambitions, and FB having LexCorp like corporate governance

[PNWbrit]

but I don't get how this thing will ever make that kind of money?

PM Mark Zuckerberg for an explanation?

Or just look up population of india......

[4matic]

I see the Whatsapp deal as nothing to do with Zuckerburg. This is a way for the venture investors to monetize a large portion of the restricted shares not already on the market. The current float on FB is less than 10% of the shares. Since it is a stock deal the listed sale price is fantasy dollars.

[Hugh Conway]

Or just look up population of india......

somehow selling ads for toilet paper to people without toilets doesn't seem the path to riches.

There's $4 billion in cash in it, wasabi dojo.

[PNWbrit]

people without toilets doesn't seem the path to riches.

What would toiletfinder.app be in in Hindi?

[Hugh Conway]

What would toiletfinder.app be in in Hindi?

An empty field?

[Timberridge]

Jordan Rohan, Stifel Nicolaus: “While the acquisition price seems high, and the valuation is difficult to justify for a company with immaterial revenue, platforms of WhatsApp’s scale and growth have significant strategic value. In short, Facebook has with the acquisition of Instagram and WhatsApp muted the strategic risk of Google acquiring its way into social media and communications in a real way. We believe Facebook shares would have been pressured by more than single-digit percentages…if Google had purchased WhatsApp instead.”

So this sums it up. At an auction with BSD's, and Zuckerberg and Page are two of the largest, all you need to do to make the price reach the stratosphere is tell one the other is buying. Good times for sellers.

[Hugh Conway]

Fairly certain this qualfies as great times for Sequoia.

[BmillsSkier]

I see the Whatsapp deal as nothing to do with Zuckerburg. This is a way for the venture investors to monetize a large portion of the restricted shares not already on the market. The current float on FB is less than 10% of the shares. Since it is a stock deal the listed sale price is fantasy dollars.

I don't disagree with you, think I saw yesterday that Sequoia had a funding round in whatsapp for 8MM back in 2011 - I'd love to see what that equated to yesterday.


EDIT: Hugh read my mind.

[Art Shirk]

I don't disagree with you, think I saw yesterday that Sequoia had a funding round in whatsapp for 8MM back in 2011 - I'd love to see what that equated to yesterday.


EDIT: Hugh read my mind.

6.4 B

.....

[BmillsSkier]

6.4 B

.....

Hahahaha. There's an IRR that's off the charts. Well done.

[Hugh Conway]

How they could have saved $15 billion:
https://twitter.com/Williamw1/status...087360/photo/1

aka the bing rewards/google checkout approach....

[Platinum Pete]

Lotsa red in the tech sector in the past 45 days. Yelp down to mid-60s from a $101 high, plenty of other examples. Is this just profit taking on the momentum stocks or a broader correction? On the other hand, IPOs are still popping.
What are the bargains in the ditch right now?

[Benny Profane]

Wow, looks like .com bubble II is turning into tech crash II. May be some cheap (er) apartments and houses in the Bay area soon.

[Hugh Conway]

This is not so much social, as just funny commentary (if you've the mind) on the whole scene:
http://nymag.com/news/features/laund...-2014-5/#print
the "hedonic treadmill" or "aping 3rd world amenities with an "app" to make people feel not so abusive and hip and cool and with it"

[Bromontana]

Pretty sure nobody knows when it will burst. But some will be able to monetize the trend change once it's confirmed. Others will say they predicted it, yet didn't want to take on risk. Yes, I am a wannabe trader But stuff like this has always fascinated me.

It may be misleading to characterize an oligarchical fight to corner markets, absurd purchase prices and all, as a 'social bubble' that could imperil the broader economy. I'd be much more concerned that household savings rates are dropping amidst increased debt obligations. Doesn't seem like organic growth to me, rather credit infused recidivism.

[LeeLau]

This is not so much social, as just funny commentary (if you've the mind) on the whole scene:
http://nymag.com/news/features/laund...-2014-5/#print
the "hedonic treadmill" or "aping 3rd world amenities with an "app" to make people feel not so abusive and hip and cool and with it"

Truly humanity needs to get wiped out in some big cleansing meteor strike or something like that. Now you've gone and depressed me

[Hugh Conway]

I thought it was parody at first. Until I found that all of those companies in the "laundry space" had websites. Eesh, you should be happy there's so much dumb money out there. Or something.

I bet at least one maggot out there knows these guys as well.

[SkiCougar]

Pretty sure nobody knows when it will burst.

already popped mine. hadnt checked facebook account this year and twitter in months and i've missed nothing.

but its not going to burst. its driven by people who feel that what they are doing is actually important to anyone else, which is most people.

[4matic]

Soon:

http://wolfstreet.com/2014/10/09/pri...t-for-burnout/

So now, 49 US startups that have not yet gone public and have not yet been acquired have valuations of over $1 billion, with five of them in, or nearly in, the $10 billion club. Uber tops the list with a valuation of $18 billion. And Snapchat, one of these $10-billion outfits, doesn’t even have revenues yet though it might eventually by selling ads via its disappearing messages.

It’s anecdotal evidence, but it’s everywhere in San Francisco and Silicon Valley. A neighbor was cooling her heels by the curb, suitcase next to her. She’s going to Europe on a “vacation-thing,” organized and paid for by her company, she told me. A team-building perk. She’s a coder at a startup, her first job out of college. When she moved in less than two years ago, trucks kept pulling up to deliver her latest acquisitions. One day, she gingerly parked a new BMW in the garage. As we were chatting about her trip to Europe, a limo pulled up for her ride to the airport. That too was part of the perk. No expenses will be spared.

This startup occupies super-expensive San Francisco office space that’s way too big for the number of employees. It’s embellished with designer furniture. Free lunches are de rigueur. All paid for with the boundless money it is getting from investors.

But who cares, except for a few wayward souls in the VC community who lament those sizzling burn rates. Bill Gurley, partner at Benchmark, had stepped to the forefront a few weeks ago to warn that “the average burn rate at the average venture-backed company” is at an “all-time high since ‘99 and maybe in many industries higher than in ‘99” [“Excessive Amounts of Risk” Doom Startup Bubble].

Marc Andreessen, founder of long-forgotten Netscape, then warned in a series of tweets: “When the market turns, and it will turn, we will find out who has been swimming without trunks on. Many high burn rate companies will VAPORIZE.” His final and most eloquent tweet: “Worry.”

[Mazderati]

So short BMW?