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10-17-2004, 08:44 PM #1
Noaa's predictions for Dec thru Feb...
Not looking so good for the PNWYou look like I need a drink.
10-18-2004, 12:52 PM #2
just wait till the next forcast gets printed, oct 21st I think.. I think the el nino which caused that forecast fizzled.. and we are back to a normal winter pattern.. just someting I heard..
10-21-2004, 10:43 AM #3
Here's the outlook as of 10/21
Oct. 21, 2004 — NOAA today updated its U.S. Winter Outlook for December 2004 through February 2005, which continues to call for warmer-than-normal conditions in the West and Alaska, and cooler-than-normal conditions in the South and in sections of the mid-Atlantic coast states.
Last edited by likwid; 10-21-2004 at 11:53 AM.
10-21-2004, 11:55 AM #4
Implications for the U.S. in Winter 2004-2005
Weak ENSO episodes are often associated with the positive phase of the PNA pattern;
The PNA pattern favors a southward shift in the jet stream and storm track toward the southeastern United States, which leads to cooler and wetter than average conditions across large portions of the South;
The PNA also favors above normal temperatures over Alaska, and the western U. S.;
The unpredictability of the seasonal phase of the NAO introduces uncertainty in the seasonal outlook, especially in the Northeast U.S.;
The negative phase of the NAO is associated with relatively frequent Nor'easters and heavy lake effect snows in the Northeast and Midwest, and also cold air outbreaks into the deep South. Currently, researchers can only forecast the phase of the NAO out to 5 to 10 days, which results in some uncertainty in the seasonal outlook.