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03-26-2013, 06:34 PM #176trenchman
- Join Date
- Feb 2010
- Posts
- 4,547
the snow piled up in the pnw.
bF.
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03-26-2013, 11:20 PM #177
I'm guessing your forecast for this season's total snow is right on, but as the saying goes.;;Lies, damn lies, and statistics....Seems like Steamboat and Vail tallies are off by almost 100".
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03-27-2013, 06:40 AM #178
Mediocre season as far as pow days but I've seen much worse overall conditions. Ghee still has a 48-100" base off of only 360"ytd, which is actually a minor miracle in itself. I can think of three or four drought winters where a 360" season meant a late, rocky start and then a rotting snowpack by April, neither of which happened this year. Still, other than the really quick start to the season, not much else has been very memorable. One excellent 50" week in late January was the only "epic" so far. 25 more days left for the ghee to get over the 400" hump.
Last edited by neckdeep; 03-27-2013 at 10:11 AM.
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05-10-2013, 11:55 PM #179
EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issu
ed by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
9 May 2013
ENSO Alert System
Status: No
t Active
Synopsis:
ENSO
-
neutral is favored into the late Northern Hemisphere summer 2013.
During April 2013,
ENSO
-
neutral continued
, with near
-
average sea surface temperatures (SSTs)
observed across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, and below average
SSTs confined to the far eastern
equatorial Pacific
(Fig. 1).
The Niño indices were near zero throughout the month, except for the
Niño1+2 region which was
between
-
1.2
°C and
-
0.5°C
(Fig. 2).
The oceanic heat content
(average
temperature in the upper 300
m of
the
ocean)
remained near average during April
(Fig. 3), reflecting near
-
average subsurface temperatures
at depth across most of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific
(Fig. 4).
The tropical low
-
level easterly winds remained slightly enhanced over
the western half of the Pacific
basin, and anomalous upper
-
level westerly winds prevailed across much of the equatorial Pacific
.
Tropical convection was enhanced over Indonesia and the western Pacific and suppressed over the central
Pacific
(Fig. 5).
Coll
ectively, these conditions indicate the continuation of ENSO
-
neutral
.
Most models forecast
Niñ
o
-
3.4 SSTs to remain ENSO
-
neutral
into the Northern Hemisphere
winter
(Fig. 6)
, with dynamical models tending to predict warmer conditions (
-
0.3°C to
0.4°C) th
an the
statistical models (
-
0.7°C to 0°C)
.
There is still low confidence in the forecasts for the latter half of the
year, partly because of the so
-
called “spring barrier,” which historically leads to lower model skill for
forecasts made between March and
May. Forecast confidence will increase over the next few months.
The current forecast indicates that
ENSO
-
neutral
will likely continue
into the second half of the Northern
Hemisphere summer
2013
(see
CPC/IRI consensus forecast
)
.
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06-21-2013, 01:08 PM #180Registered User
- Join Date
- Nov 2010
- Posts
- 812
It's pretty clear I didn't ski enough last winter, because I'm already thinking of next winter.
http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/inde...122&Itemid=179
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08-28-2014, 06:22 PM #181
holding at 65% chance of El Nino for '14-15
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product.../ensodisc.html
next reassessment, sept 4
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08-29-2014, 09:55 AM #182
From ^^^
The lack of a coherent atmospheric El Niño pattern, and a return to near-average SSTs in the central Pacific, indicate ENSO-neutral.
...
A strong El Niño is not favored in any of the ensemble averages, and slightly more models call for a weak event rather than a moderate event.
...
The chance of El Niño has decreased to about 65% during the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter...
And the PNW is in the middle of the colder/wetter portion of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO).Merde De Glace On the Freak When Ski
>>>200 cm Black Bamboo Sidewalled DPS Lotus 120 : Best Skis Ever <<<
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08-29-2014, 11:04 AM #183
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08-30-2014, 06:03 PM #184
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08-31-2014, 01:35 AM #185
The Niño is favorably not good for Jackson Hole, so I want a weak Niño. However, we love La Niña here. She hits hard & often. Give us a weak El Niño this year & a strong La Niña the following year.
Saying that, you never know what will happen, just enjoy the winter. I just go by my history on my twelve going on thirteen winters out in the Rockies. First seven in AltaBird, last five going on six in Jackson.
As long as we don't have the 13-14 Tahoe winter.Always charging it in honor of Flyin' Ryan Hawks.
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08-31-2014, 12:16 PM #186
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09-07-2014, 08:02 PM #187
See Klaus Wolter's thoughts below (underlining added for emphasis for the TL;DR crowd).
Discussion and comparison of recent conditions with historic ENSO-neutral conditions
In the context of ENSO-neutral conditions from August-September 2013 through last boreal winter, this section features a comparison figure with persistent ENSO-neutral conditions for at least six bimonthly MEI values and ending in close proximity to the ranking of January-February 2014 MEI. Longer-lived neutral conditions (such as 1959-61) could only enter once into this comparison figure.
The updated (July-August) MEI has increased slightly to +0.86. Its current ranking has moved up to the 12th highest value for this time of year, in weak-to-moderate El Niño territory. The long anticipated emergence of El Niño conditions in 2014 is still under way, despite the lack of signal in Niño 3.4 (see below), leading to the next question of how big it will get. Of the 12 nearest-ranked July-August values, eight had come up by at least nine ranks over the previous four months (2014 has come by 19 ranks). In turn, six of these eight cases (1957, '86, '91, '02, '06, and '09) kept El Niño conditions going into the next calendar year, while the 1951 event ended prematurely by November, and 2004 struggled through the remainder of 2004. Three of these events unambiguously reached strong levels for several months: 1957-58, 1986-87, and 1991-92. So, a strong event is still possible (perhaps better than 1 in 3 odds), but is not the most likely outcome, while a crash before the end of 2014 appears to have about 1 in 4 odds.
Positive SST anomalies cover much of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, as seen in the latest weekly SST map. Compared to last month, weak negative anomalies near 120W have disappeared, as have most of the negative SSt anomalies near 20S and off the South American coast, but the positive SST anomalies have not gained much ground in return.
For an alternate interpretation of the current situation, I recommend reading the NOAA ENSO Advisory which represents the official and most recent Climate Prediction Center opinion on this subject. In its latest update (September 4th, 2014), ENSO-neutral conditions were diagnosed, but were expected to transition to El Niño by the fall, at odds of 60%-65%. Differences in opinion are due to their requirement that El Niño conditions persist for a long period before acknowledging an event, and the fact that Niño 3.4 SST still has not crossed over their +0.5C anomaly threshold.
There are a number of ENSO indices that are kept up-to-date on the web. Several of these are tracked at the NCEP website that is usually updated around the same time as the MEI, in time for this go-around. In 2013, Niño regions 3 and 3.4 rose from close to -0.5C in January to within +/-0.2C in March and April of that year. While Niño 3 dropped back to -0.5C and even lower from May through August, Niño 3.4 remained less negative (around -0.3C) through this period. During September through December, both indices hovered close to or just under 0C. In early 2014, both indices dropped to around -0.5C for both indices, followed by a steady warm-up from March through June, reaching +0.9C for Niño 3, and just shy of +0.5C for Niño 3.4. In July 2014, both indices dropped by more than 0.2C, still above +0.5C for Niño 3, but only +0.2C for Niño 3.4. This continued during the month of August.
For extended Tahiti-Darwin SOI data back to 1876, and timely monthly updates, check the Australian Bureau of Meteorology website. This index has often been out of sync with other ENSO indices in the last decade, including a jump to +10 (+1 sigma) in April 2010 that was ahead of any other ENSO index in announcing La Niña conditions. In 2013, the SOI varied from slightly negative values early in the year (-4 in February) all the way to +14 in June and back down to -2 in October. It rose back up to +9 in November, consistent with potentially re-emerging La Niña conditions. However, the December value dropped right back to +1, only to be followed by a jump to +12 in January 2014, and back to slightly negative values (-1) in February. This was followed by a further drop to -13 in March 2014, its lowest March value since 1998(!). However, the April and May values went right back up to positive (La Niña) territory. In June and July 2014, it went back to (mild) negative values, only to drop further into El Niño-worthy values around -11 in August. The SOI remains the noisiest ENSO index that I can think of.
An even longer Tahiti-Darwin SOI (back to 1866) is maintained at the Climate Research Unit of the University of East Anglia website, however with less frequent updates (currently through January 2014). Extended SST-based ENSO data can be found at the University of Washington-JISAO website, which is now more than three years behind in its update (through January 2011).
Stay tuned for the next update by October 12th (or earlier) to see where the MEI will be heading next. El Niño came and went during the summer of 2012, not unlike 1953. I do not believe that this year's version will be quite as short-lived, not least because the PDO has remained positive through at least July in 2014, while it was quite negative back in 2012. The odds for a strong event have recovered slightly, while a moderate event is still the most likely outcome for now.
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09-14-2014, 07:04 PM #188
Cliff Mass is saying El Nino is building. Coupled with the Blob that's been off the BC coast, the forecast is increasingly ominous for the PNW and increasingly sweet for the SW.
http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2014/0...ter-ahead.html
Also:
Temperature:
and
Precip:
Merde De Glace On the Freak When Ski
>>>200 cm Black Bamboo Sidewalled DPS Lotus 120 : Best Skis Ever <<<
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09-15-2014, 09:24 AM #189Registered User
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- Seattle
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- 1,992
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09-15-2014, 10:29 PM #190so funky fresh
- Join Date
- Jan 2009
- Location
- on tha eastside
- Posts
- 209
Everybody loves dice rolling!
I calculated storm tracks following McAfee and Russell 2008 (GRL) and differenced the ENSO positive and negative phases. Greener means more storminess, browner means less. Flip 'em for La Niña (and see why the PNDub loves her so much!) Donut matta for the Sierra! If anything, it is less favorable to have El Niño conditions. More specifically, the phasing of many other factors drives seasonal precipitation in the southcentral midlatitudes of the West Coast. The PNA shows up nicely as well in the geopotential height fields.
A station-based approach (below, from the Western Regional Climate Center) is totally consistent and derived independently. Bear in mind that the relationship of Reno precip to western Sierra precip has a correlation coefficient of 0.8 over 91 years (it is just about 1/10 the magnitude), so this figure is valid for the greater region.
Burn more skis!
Edit to update ENSO-STLast edited by 213; 09-25-2014 at 09:19 PM.
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10-01-2014, 11:40 AM #191
Yup, looks live Valdez is going to get pounded....again!
-BOV
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11-04-2014, 10:34 AM #192
Cliff Mass says the blob is disappating:
http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2014/1...s-meeting.html
despite the 6-10 above average temps of October.Merde De Glace On the Freak When Ski
>>>200 cm Black Bamboo Sidewalled DPS Lotus 120 : Best Skis Ever <<<
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11-05-2014, 10:00 AM #193
These guys are claiming El Nino is now official.
http://www.southerncaliforniaweather...-now-official/
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11-05-2014, 12:51 PM #194
I think they're premature with that claim. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...y/ensodisc.pdf
CPC update from monday states that Neutral conditions continue. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...-fcsts-web.pdf
Warm phase PDO development is interesting... http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/cli...anom.anim.html
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11-05-2014, 01:19 PM #195
^^^ Only because of NOAA's time period requirement to make the declaration. See pages 19-20 of the second PDF.
See Klaus Wolter's comment:
Differences in opinion are due to [CPC's] requirement that El Niño conditions persist for a long period before acknowledging an event, and the fact that Niño 3.4 SST still has not crossed over their +0.5C anomaly threshold.
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11-05-2014, 01:34 PM #196
That's an abuse of the term "Pacific Decadal Oscillation" which specifies a 40-50 year weather periodicity in which we are heading into the colder wetter phases.
The phenomenon to which you refer has been called the "blob". And it's disappating: http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2014/1...s-meeting.html
NOAA is always sadly behind the curve.Merde De Glace On the Freak When Ski
>>>200 cm Black Bamboo Sidewalled DPS Lotus 120 : Best Skis Ever <<<
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11-05-2014, 02:19 PM #197
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11-05-2014, 03:14 PM #198
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11-05-2014, 03:33 PM #199
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11-05-2014, 04:48 PM #200
In my understanding, the PDO is a term that refers to decades long temperature and precip oscillations detected by tree ring and ice core samples. It's not a perfect sine wave. The noise or anomalies in the PDO are not what makes it notable or nameable.
If anything, as mentioned tens of times, we're heading into the colder, wetter phase of the PDO.
To refer to a "Warm phase PDO development" would not be referring to the phase of the PDO into which we are currently going and is inconsistent with the convention.
Cliff Mass has referred to what you're referring to as "the blob". See the link.
Also: (from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pacific...al_oscillation).
MacDonald and Case[24] reconstructed the PDO back to 993 using tree rings from California and Alberta. The index shows a 50-70 year periodicity but this is a strong mode of variability only after 1800, a persistent negative phase occurred during medieval times (993-1300) which is consistent with la nina conditions reconstructed in the tropical Pacific[25] and multi-century droughts in the South-West United States.[26]
Several regime shifts are apparent both in the reconstructions and instrumental data, during the 20th century regime shifts associated with concurrent changes in SST, SLP, land precipitation and ocean cloud cover occurred in 1924/1925,1945/1946 and 1976/1977:[27]
1750: PDO displays an unusually strong oscillation.[4]
1924/1925: PDO changed to a "warm" phase.[27]
1945/1946: The PDO changed to a "cool" phase, the pattern of this regime shift is similar to the 1970s episode with maximum amplitude in the subarctic and subtropical front but with a greater signature near the Japan while the 1970s shift was stronger near the American west coast.[27][28]
1976/1977: PDO changed to a "warm" phase.[29]
1988/1989:A weakening of the Aleutian low with associated SST changes was observed,[30] in contrast to others regime shifts this change appears to be related to concurrent extratropical oscillation in the North Pacific and North Atlantic rather than tropical processes.[31]
1997/1998: Several changes in Sea surface temperature and marine ecosystem occurred in the North Pacific after 1997/1998, in contrast to prevailing anomalies observed after the 1970s shift. The SST declined along the United States west coast and substantial changes in the populations of salmon, anchovy and sardine were observed as the PDO changed back to a cool "anchovy" phase .[32] However the spatial pattern of the SST change was different with a meridional SST seesaw in the central and western Pacific that resembled a strong shift in the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation rather than the PDO structure. This pattern dominated much of the North Pacific SST variability after 1989.[33]
So in the literature at least, a "phase" refers to a temperature/precip pattern in the large, not in any aberations from the norm of the phase.
Thanks, Sancho.Last edited by Buster Highmen; 11-05-2014 at 05:19 PM.
Merde De Glace On the Freak When Ski
>>>200 cm Black Bamboo Sidewalled DPS Lotus 120 : Best Skis Ever <<<
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