Thread: Ides of September: Beginning of the end for McCain?

Well, I shouldn't pin it on one specific day... but I see the end of last week as the end of the McCain Palin bounce. So why not pick lucky number 13?

Palin speaks and her numbers turn to the south. The press calls McCain's ads misleading or worse. McCain says the economy's fundamentals are strong as Wall Street firms fall.

And as a result... Obama is now on the upswing in the polls and looks to have passed back ahead of McCain. Has McCain peaked? Will we remember the Ides of September as his high point and the beginning of the end?

For a guy who's seemingly full of Obama bravado, it continues to confound me that you won't put your e-money on Barry. Would not being able to post her and in the Padded Room be all that bad?

Originally Posted by Jer

For a guy who's seemingly full of Obama bravado, it continues to confound me that you won't put your e-money on Barry. Would not being able to post her and in the Padded Room be all that bad?

Jer, as I stated (I think as post #2?) in your thread... the price is too high. I don't want either you or I to leave the Padded Room or PolAss. But thanks for the kind offer again anyway.

Originally Posted by timvwcom

Jer, as I stated (I think as post #2?) in your thread... the price is too high. I don't want either you or I to leave the Padded Room or PolAss. But thanks for the kind offer again anyway.

Truth be told, there are tons of people who's bet I wouldn't accept. For the reason you stated. Without Lex Luthor, Superman is just another fag in a leotard.

OK. I laughed.

Sure it's only one poll... but there is an obvious trend in the reaction to the Wall Street melt down.



http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...303667_pf.html

Originally Posted by Jer

Truth be told, there are tons of people who's bet I wouldn't accept. For the reason you stated. Without Lex Luthor, Superman is just another fag in a leotard.

I'd accept your bet except you already promised you'd leave if Obama wins independent of any bet.

So, this is just a way of showing what kind of real innerwezb integrity you've got.

Sorry Tim, can't follow the post without any highlighting

Originally Posted by Tye 1on

Sorry Tim, can't follow the post without any highlighting

I think my standard response to ANY mention of color or highlighting will become very graphic in nature...



(Gotta make up some others I have in mind tho, or it'll get boring quick. <- Like my posts, no?)

HUDGE swings towards Obama going on in polling all across the country. 2 now show him with the lead in North Carolina! Here are current trendlines from Pollster and RealClearPolitics;






Intrade (Betting/Investment system) has swung back to Obama on top 63.7 to McCain's 35.9 as I write this. Their Electoral College predictor shows a landslide;



(Reminder, this ^^ EC result is based on BETS/INVESTMENTS placed at Intrade NOT polling)

McCain or Mcbama whats the difference?

New Quinnipiac swing state poll showing Obama with strong leads in the most important swing states. Will be very curious to see if this lead keeps growing, levels off, or... I suppose some new bombshell could send it the other way too. If someone was holding such a "bomb", I'd guess dropping it 3 or 4 days before the election would be the best timing???


Latest Quinnipiac numbers post-debate;

Florida: Obama 51 to McCain 43 = 8 point lead

Ohio: Obama 50 to McCain 42 = 8 point lead

Pennsylvania: Obama 54 to McCain 39 = 15 point lead

Some of the pollsters comments;

"It is difficult to find a modern competitive presidential race that has swung so dramatically, so quickly and so sharply this late in the campaign. In the last 20 days, Sen. Barack Obama has gone from seven points down to eight points up in Florida, while widening his leads to eight points in Ohio and 15 points in Pennsylvania," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"Sen. John McCain has his work cut out for him if he is to win the presidency and there does not appear to be a role model for such a comeback in the last half century," Brown added.

"Sen. McCain's problem is not with this or that demographic group. Although he still leads among white men, albeit by a smaller margin, his problems are across the electorate.

"Sen. Obama clearly won the debate, voters say. Their opinion of Gov. Sarah Palin has gone south and the Wall Street meltdown has been a dagger to McCain's political heart. Roughly a third of voters, and almost as large a share of the key independent vote, say McCain did more harm than good in trying to resolve the financial crisis, and the share of voters who see the economy as the top issue has risen from roughly half to six in ten."

More numbers coming in from a CNN/Time Magazine/Opinion Research polling showing Obama is looking good even in states that Bush won in both 2000 and 2004*;

-Florida*: Obama 51 to McCain 47 = 4 point lead

-Missouri*: Obama 54 to McCain 43 = 11 point lead

-Nevada*: Obama 51 to McCain 47 = 4 point lead

-Virginia*: Obama 53 to McCain 44 = 9 point lead

(Virginia!!! Bush won 52.5 to 44.4 in '00 and 53.6 to 45.4 in '04)

-Minnesota: Obama 54 to McCain 43 = 11 point lead

Some comments;

Originally Posted by CNN

What's behind this shift for Obama?

"Obama has gained ground among moderates in all five states," said CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. "That may have something to do with the first presidential debate. Some commentators knocked Obama for agreeing with McCain as often as he did, but moderates tend to like it when candidates appear willing to see the other side's point of view.

"In most states, Obama also won support from senior citizens and voters making more than $75,000. Those are two groups who may have been hardest-hit by the recent problems in the stock market and the financial community. Economic jitters may not last if Congress passes legislation in the next few days, but there may have been short-term gains for Obama as a result of the current economic problems," added Holland.

Originally Posted by Tuckerman

McCain or Mcbama whats the difference?

Obama can come up with nice things to say while he is fucking us.

OK... this was pre-debate earlier this evening, but the beer run was more important that fleshing this out at the time as the VP drinking game was high on my list for potential achievements today... I can't go crash til I move out these windows I've parked various places on my desktop;

Originally Posted by Talking Point Memo

In a conference call with reporters this afternoon that was heavy on damage control in the wake of reports that McCain is conceding Michigan to Obama, the McCain campaign acknowledged that the six core battleground states are now Ohio, Virgina, Florida, Missouri, Indiana, and North Carolina. In other words, as Josh noted earlier, McCain is now fighting just to hold onto the red states Bush won in 2004.

To restate this... looks like McCain has pulled back the battle lines to ONLY the states that Bush won in '04. If he loses a single one of these states he's toast... Sorry for the Republicans/Conservatives out there, but short of a sniper's bullet or hidden big personal sin of Obama's that blows-up, this is all she wrote for McCain. I predicted a 10 point cushion for Obama running up to the election back in mid February... and was half wrong until recently, but can't see how it changes to favor McCain anymore???

A little update as of 10/10/08...

Notice the election date line coming quickly here, and just at the cusp of the super important 50% mark on both these;






The investment/betting types are thinking the fat lady is warming up;




Now which of you conservodouches is ready to say it with me this time... Just like I've been saying since back in February, this is already over = "President Barack Obama".

Don't be too sure. That race thing is pretty big

"“I think Obama’s kind of arrogant,” said Theresa Ghrist, 40, whose work schedule has been reduced at her R.V. plant. “When it comes down to it around here, people are going to vote color, and I don’t think people are ready to vote for a colored president. I don’t care myself, but at work a lot of people talk color there.”

A co-worker, Jim Podemski, agreed with her assessment, but added, “I wouldn’t want to vote Republican again.”"



Oh, those "arrogant", uppity negros.

Originally Posted by Benny Profane

I think Obama’s kind of arrogant. I don’t think people are ready to vote for a colored president. Those arrogant uppity negros.

STFU, racist asshole.

How old are you?

Originally Posted by Benny Profane

How old are you?

39, you fucking bigot asshole.

I suggest anger management classes followed by a blow job.

Originally Posted by Benny Profane

I suggest anger management classes followed by a blow job.

Anyone else think it's kinda suspicious that like just over a week ago there is a "self blow job" thread, then the night before last Jer says he "messed up my back about a week ago..."??? Hmmm...

Originally Posted by Benny Profane

I suggest anger management classes followed by a blow job.

Yes Benny. My anger is for reelz. I actually am genuinely angry at you. I'm not just flame-baiting a humorless douche like I've done 10,000,000 times before. This time it's real.

But hey - if you're ever in WI I'm up for the blow job I suppose. As long as you put on a wig and some makeup or something.


















































































I suggest you try skiing this year. Who knows - you may like it.



And Rainbow - we've been over this. I hurt my back trying to lift a woodstove. Everybody knows it's impossible to suck your own D unless you get some ribs removed.

Where do you live? I mean, not your address, just, a generic description.