Your Opinion; How will 2008 Presidential Election play out?

**timvwcom** · 09-14-2008, 11:10 AM

Instead of all the current PolAss discussions about subjects in the here-and-now, I'm curious what the politco Mags think about the future track of this election? What are the subjects that will dominate the campaigns bickering and news coverage, especially in the last month and weeks?

I'd assume the "get to know Palin" buzz will tone down in a week or two. Then what? Does the McCain campaign keep up what even the media is calling a "deceitful" ad barrage? Does it backfire? How tough does Obama get, does he get down in the mud as well? On issues, Iraq seems to still be there, but not preeminent. The economy is the worst it's been in 50 or 100 years, will this be what is being discussed in the final weeks of the campaigning? Or do we end up back at Gods, guns and gays somehow? The first debate is about 2 weeks out now, certainly new subjects will emerge then...

What say you?

**AstroPax** · 09-14-2008, 12:12 PM

Originally Posted by timvwcom

I'd assume the "get to know Palin" buzz will tone down in a week or two.

You can assume all day long, but that doesn't mean that it will actually happen....but then again, it doesn't necessarily mean that it won't.

Personally, I don't make assumptions unless I have some sort of underlying reasons for doing so. What is the basis for your assumption?

If anything, the "buzz" surrounding Palin will only increase the closer we get to the debates, and the election itself. That's the way the media operates...they'll turn-up the volume as we approach the end of the game, and the grand finale itself.

Originally Posted by timvwcom

Does the McCain campaign keep up what even the media is calling a "deceitful" ad barrage?

"Even the media"??? Bwaaahaaahaahaa! They have been in love with Obama since day #1. Of course they would say something like that. You make it sound as if this is some sort of new or revolutionary concept or idea for the (left dominated) media.

Originally Posted by timvwcom

How tough does Obama get, does he get down in the mud as well?

Obama is already in it, has been for a long time, and just as deep as anyone else. Except in the case of Obama, it's not mud, but rather fecal matter.

Originally Posted by timvwcom

On issues, Iraq seems to still be there, but not preeminent.

Not preeminent? Gee, I wonder why? Oh, maybe because of the success that is occurring over there of late? Funny thing, for the past 7 years the vast majority of the reporting was negative, but now, as things actually turn positive, poof!, where are all those reporters now??? Oh, I know, now they are attacking McCain and Palin. BTW, why won't Obama (and the media in general) admit that they were wrong about the surge?

Originally Posted by timvwcom

The economy is the worst it's been in 50 or 100 years

WTF? What a bunch of BS nonsense. Evidently, you weren't around, or were not old enough to remember the late seventies (let alone the great depression).

**mrryde** · 09-14-2008, 12:44 PM

Originally Posted by timvwcom

Instead of all the current PolAss discussions about subjects in the here-and-now, I'm curious what the politco Mags think about the future track of this election? What are the subjects that will dominate the campaigns bickering and news coverage, especially in the last month and weeks?

I'd assume the "get to know Palin" buzz will tone down in a week or two. Then what? Does the McCain campaign keep up what even the media is calling a "deceitful" ad barrage? Does it backfire? How tough does Obama get, does he get down in the mud as well? On issues, Iraq seems to still be there, but not preeminent. The economy is the worst it's been in 50 or 100 years, will this be what is being discussed in the final weeks of the campaigning? Or do we end up back at Gods, guns and gays somehow? The first debate is about 2 weeks out now, certainly new subjects will emerge then...

What say you?

I think the Palin buzz turns into Palin hangover as more people understand what she is really about. I predict McCain gets toasted in all 4 debates and more of the swing states turn blue. McCain's campaign tactics are getting called out by the MSM and that trend will increase.

I was in Cabarrus county, NC on saturday night at a fair. There was a McCain table and on the opposite side of the arena an Obama table.

You would think the Obama table would have been chased as out of the room, but it wasn't the case at all, there were still tons of McCain stickers on people as expected, but there were an aweful lot of people supporting Obama. And this was deep into die hard republican land if you know what I mean.

BTW, Joe Biden is in town tonight, tickets were gone in 20 minutes.

Smokey McPole · 09-14-2008, 12:58 PM

I say Obama wins it in a landslide when it comes out about a week before the election that he actually is, in fact, Jesus Christ.

Smokey McPole · 09-14-2008, 01:00 PM

Originally Posted by AstroPax

WTF? What a bunch of BS nonsense. Evidently, you weren't around, or were not old enough to remember the late seventies (let alone the great depression).

Tim's old enough.

Personally, I have yet to feel the pinch of the so-called recession/great depression.

**timvwcom** · 09-14-2008, 01:48 PM

Well... I was kinda hoping you'd give some ideas looking forward rather than dissect my post. But hey, let's roll with it;

Originally Posted by AstroPax

You can assume all day long, but that doesn't mean that it will actually happen....but then again, it doesn't necessarily mean that it won't.

Personally, I don't make assumptions unless I have some sort of underlying reasons for doing so. What is the basis for your assumption?

If anything, the "buzz" surrounding Palin will only increase the closer we get to the debates, and the election itself. That's the way the media operates...they'll turn-up the volume as we approach the end of the game, and the grand finale itself.

Hey, I guess I'd claim I was using common sense... but sounds like you disagree. I can respect that you have a different opinion, guess time will tell where it goes.

Originally Posted by AstroPax

"Even the media"??? Bwaaahaaahaahaa! They have been in love with Obama since day #1. Of course they would say something like that. You make it sound as if this is some sort of new or revolutionary concept or idea for the (left dominated) media.

I guess I shouldn't be surprised when a Republican can't see completely fabricated and intentionally misleading points of argument in these ads and interviews, since the Bush/Cheney group has done just about nothing but that for 7.5 years. But I AM SURPRISED that you can't see the media talking about it. As evidence see this thread OP where I've listed 25 articles on this, including from Conservative/Republican media (O'Rielly has said it for heavens sake!); http://www.tetongravity.com/forums/s...d.php?t=132386...

And to absolutely positively SLAM DUNK my point here; KARL fucking ROVE just said that "McCain has gone in his ads one step too far, and sort of attributing to Obama things that are, you know, beyond the 100-percent-truth test"... Did you get that, KARL ROVE of all people is saying McCain has gone too far, you can't see the humor in that?

Originally Posted by AstroPax

Obama is already in it, has been for a long time, and just as deep as anyone else. Except in the case of Obama, it's not mud, but rather fecal matter.

Obama has had some parts of a few ads that probably tip toe over the "misleading" line too, but as I point out above... nothing near McCain.

Originally Posted by AstroPax

Not preeminent? Gee, I wonder why? Oh, maybe because of the success that is occurring over there of late? Funny thing, for the past 7 years the vast majority of the reporting was negative, but now, as things actually turn positive, poof!, where are all those reporters now??? Oh, I know, now they are attacking McCain and Palin. BTW, why won't Obama (and the media in general) admit that they were wrong about the surge?

I've conceed there is less violence... we can argue over why, but that's not for this discussion. But to correct your assertion, Obama HAS ALREADY SAID (again on O'Rielly fer crikes sake) that the surge succeeded better than he expected. Though, I'd caution you count all those chickens on some kind of Iraq success claim yet, General Petraeus has just said that recent security gains were "not irreversible" and that the US still faced a "long struggle". And while we are discussing wars, Petraeus also said "the trends in Afghanistan have not gone in the right direction... and that has to be addressed". Comments on that?

Originally Posted by AstroPax

WTF? What a bunch of BS nonsense. Evidently, you weren't around, or were not old enough to remember the late seventies (let alone the great depression).

HAHhahhAHHAhahhhAHh... If you won't take my little old word for it, how about former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan??? Do you think HE knows anything about the economy?

He said back in March 2008 that the economy is worst since WWII. So even back in March I would have back up that economy is worst in (2008 - 1945 =) 63 years... you think it's gotten any worse since then???

Well I can add, that Greenspan has come out now and said that this is the worst economy I\\\'ve ever seen and getting worse.

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan offered a woeful outlook of America's economic situation on Sunday, saying the crisis with the country's financial institutions was as dire as he had ever seen in his long career, and predicting that one or more of those institutions would likely collapse in the near future.

"Oh, by far," Greenspan said, when asked if the situation was the worst he had seen in his career. "There's no question that this is in the process of outstripping anything I've seen and it still is not resolved and still has a way to go and, indeed, it will continue to be a corrosive force until the price of homes in the United States stabilizes. That will induce a series of events around the globe which will stabilize the system."

...

Edit: Found an ABC News account of Greenspans interview with ABC's Stephanopoulos TODAY referenced above; guess what Greenspan sez;

Originally Posted by Alan Greenspan

Greenspan also noted, "let's recognize that this is a once-in-a-half-century, probably once-in-a-century type of event."

Remember what I said that you had the issue with?

Originally Posted by timvwcom

...The economy is the worst it's been in 50 or 100 years...

Seems Greenspan thinks I was right... on this your argument = FAIL. Sorry.

Now... any comments back on topic? WHERE DO YOU SEE THIS CAMPAIGN CONTEST GOING IN THE FUTURE???

**Lizhnik** · 09-14-2008, 03:34 PM

It seems as if Alan Greenspan is referring to the crisis among financial institutions, not the economy as a whole. It's funny how he never used to talk like that when he was chairman of the Fed. But, now that he's in the private sector, with an agenda and financial interests to protect, it's all fire and brimstone. I'm not necessarily backing this view, but many feel that he is largely responsible for the mess the economy is in now by allowing easy money for too long and blowing a liquidity bubble in the real estate market.

Do you have any empirical evidence to back up your claim that the economy is the worst it's been in 50-100 years? Besides misquoting Greenspan, are there other economists who share your view? Do you think, for example, that Ben Bernanke would agree with you?

As for what transpires between now and the election, I predict not much. There will be noise, but, as you noted, it will be about god, guns and gays. The debates will be a non-event, only serving to prove to each side how weak the opposing candidate is. It's all rather depressing.

**St. Jerry** · 09-14-2008, 03:48 PM

Prediciton: McCain/Palin will win. Things will continue to get worse. People will bitch for change at the next election. Democrats will come out with a change candidate. Palin will claim she is the real candidate of change.
Palin in 2012.

**AstroPax** · 09-14-2008, 03:53 PM

Originally Posted by Lizhnik

misquoting Greenspan

He's doing more than just "misquoting" Greenspan. He's basing his ENTIRE "worse economy in 100 years" argument on a misunderstanding which is a result of his "selective (left-channel) listening".

**timvwcom** · 09-14-2008, 04:43 PM

Well... upon further review it does look like some of those news stories (CNN/Money & ABC News) over generalized Greenspan's comments when I compare their text with the original. Though it is unclear about exactly what Greenspan was referring to in the ABC interview today. Either way, point taken. Perhaps I should modify my original comments to state that big portions of the economy are the worst since the great depression (~75 yrs)... Happy with that? [/begrudging correction

]

I'd ask for comment on the 4 other (of my 5 points), BUT my hope for this thread was to get discussion on what your ideas of where this campaign contest goes for the remaining portion. So, give me some thoughts on that and get this thread back on track from my self administered distraction.

**AstroPax** · 09-14-2008, 04:54 PM

Originally Posted by timvwcom

get discussion on what your ideas of where this campaign contest goes for the remaining portion.

Herein lies the problem. It's somewhat difficult to discuss these points when the premise of your original post is so severely flawed/skewed. In other words, just about every one of those questions that you raised are, shall I say, "loaded".

It puts the (anti-Obama) reader on the defensive, from the get go. But, then again, that might be part of your objective.

**Lizhnik** · 09-14-2008, 04:56 PM

Originally Posted by timvwcom

big portions of the economy are the worst since the great depression (~75 yrs)... Happy with that?

Sorry, but that still doesn't work for me. It is a blanket statement completely unsubstantiated by any data, or backed up by expert argument. You complain about the McCain campaign stretching the truth, don't you think you'd best serve the interests of the Democratic party by not doing the same thing?

**AstroPax** · 09-14-2008, 05:04 PM

Originally Posted by timvwcom

(CNN/Money & ABC News) over generalized

Really? Wow, what a revelation!

**AstroPax** · 09-14-2008, 05:08 PM

Originally Posted by timvwcom

big portions of the economy are the worst since the great depression (~75 yrs)... Happy with that?

No, not at all.

Sluggish economy for now. It's that simple. Why do you insist on blowing this all out of proportion.

Oh, wait, never mind.

**timvwcom** · 09-14-2008, 05:11 PM

Originally Posted by AstroPax

Herein lies the problem. It's somewhat difficult to discuss these points when the premise of your original post is so severely flawed/skewed. In other words, just about every one of those questions that you raised are, shall I say, "loaded".

It puts the (anti-Obama) reader on the defensive, from the get go. But, then again, that might be part of your objective.

NOT an objective... but an apparent bias I'd agree. Sorry. So, come on... where is this campaign going?

Originally Posted by Lizhnik

Sorry, but that still doesn't work for me. It is a blanket statement completely unsubstantiated by any data, or backed up by expert argument. You complain about the McCain campaign stretching the truth, don't you think you'd best serve the interests of the Democratic party by not doing the same thing?

I have dinner waiting for me in the other room and not going to waste bunches more time since this wasn't the goal for this thread... But would say that we already have evidence herein that the general finance portion of the markets (which extends thru the economy) could meet that criteria, certainly the housing sector would qualify in most respects (and as my field is certainly felt dearly). I'm not going try and determine exactly how large a portion these two sectors play in the economy as a whole, but don't think I'm stretching it to say "big".

And thanks for your comments in the earlier thread on where you think the contest goes!

**Tippster** · 09-14-2008, 05:16 PM

I think the debates will be very decisive, and the VP debate will actually mean something this time, simply because they will hide Palin until then. If she has a good showing and doesn't come across as uninformed, and Biden doesn't come across as a big meany, then the Republican base will decide that she's reason enough to vote for someone they've disliked for a decade and pulled through the meat grinder in 2000.

If she ends up looking ill-infomed and pissy I think the good-ole boys will sit this one out and Obama wins despite the current polls.

There is very little McCain can do to help his ticket from now on -- he's not a good public speaker and will likely not fare well against a trained orator in the debates. That said Obama needs to stop parsing himself while he answers - he needs to do what Clinton did: order his thoughts first (the "Clinton Moment") and then answer succinctly, without the umms and ahs.

**enlosandes** · 09-14-2008, 05:19 PM

I predict a national crisis, ie Iran, will take center stage and Americans will once again vote out of fear to keep the US safe. That means McSame and Vilf.

**Crud's Uncle** · 09-14-2008, 05:23 PM

McCain Campaign--In October you will see ads highlighting Obama's questionable background. The 527 groups will hit the Rev. Wright, Rezko, Ayers and other ethics/leftist slams. McCain will focus on Obama's experience and his plan for the future.

Obama Campaign-- Obama will a campaign will focus on tying McCain to Bush. He will paint the story that Iraq was a failure and the economy is in shambles. The 527 groups will slam Palin, question McCain's health among other slams.

I think McCain chances to win are 75%.

If Obama sticks to the issues and is not perceived as unfair he increase his chances to win. He needs to win back the independant and woman voters from Palin. It is tricky, because if he or the press is perceived as unfair it will solidify her support.

Elections are won by relatively small margins. The republicans will vote for McCain and the Democrats will vote for Obama. Since every Democrat wins 90+ percent of the black vote, Obama support in the black community is meaningless to the vote total. Any democrat would have those votes. His problem is he definitely will lose a couple percent of old time democrats that will not vote for a black guy with Obamas past.

McCain has the advantage that the votes being fought over tend to be middle of the road politically. McCain has a track record of being in the middle of road. He partnered with democrats on many issues to the chagrin of the conservative base. He needs to communicate that record over the next two months. If he does, the election calculus definitely favors him.

**AstroPax** · 09-14-2008, 05:23 PM

Originally Posted by Tippster

That said Obama needs to stop parsing himself while he answers - he needs to do what Clinton did: order his thoughts first (the "Clinton Moment") and then answer succinctly, without the umms and ahs.

The problem with Obama is that he is a lawyer, and lawyers are trained to ramble on and on.

He takes way too long to make a point. Obama needs to learn how to STFU, stop beating around the bush (no pun intended), and get to the point.

**Rasputin** · 09-14-2008, 05:46 PM

The polls will continue to level out until the debates, Obama will utterly crush McCain, both by showing poise where McCain loses his temper, and by revealing McCain's lack of grasp of the issues other than foreign policy, revealing him as the dottering, angry, out of touch old man that he is.

In the VP debates, Biden will dominate Palin to the extent that her facade crumbles and instinctively releases a personally directed bombast which reveals the evil witch beneath; her meltdown becomes the most popular video ever on youtube, and she loses about half her support among the women who just wanted to vote for a woman, because they are now reminded of a vindictive head cheerleader who was cruel to them in highschool.

Bush attempts to help McCain by starting a war with Pakistan and bombs Iran at the beginning of November, but somehow enough moderate Republicans see through the fear to realize that Obama will prevent WWIII from developing out of it, and the fear of a reinstitution of the draft drives youth to the polls in record numbers.

Obama wins in a nail biter, by about three percentage points, with late support from Nevada, Idaho and Montana.

**JohnTucker** · 09-14-2008, 06:23 PM

Are you guys sure the Obama is not a terrorist who has successfully infultrated the US, and has pulled the wool over everyone's eyes for decades. C'mon. Muslim. Religious extremist church and pastor. Growing up outside the continental US. Unknown until just a few short years ago. Can't you see this guy winning the election, and then turning on us? It's like a bad espionage movie.

**TruckeeLocal** · 09-14-2008, 06:40 PM

I think the country is in fine shape. The politicos have to generate the right kind of fear to turn the vote their way. Hence the Republicans create an external threat and demonstrate a capability (or in the the case of Palin the naivite) and willingness to tackle it. While the Dems create an internal fear and hence the need for change. Voters prefer the external threat scenario and aren't necessarily comfortable with change (because things aren't that bad for most actually). Hence nothing changes and the Dems will lose again.

**Adolf Allerbush** · 09-14-2008, 06:46 PM

Originally Posted by JohnTucker

Are you guys sure the Obama is not a terrorist who has successfully infultrated the US, and has pulled the wool over everyone's eyes for decades. C'mon. Muslim. Religious extremist church and pastor. Growing up outside the continental US. Unknown until just a few short years ago. Can't you see this guy winning the election, and then turning on us? It's like a bad espionage movie.

This election...people like JohnTucker will assassinate Obama before the election....HRC will have to pick up where Obama left off. Meanwhile McCain suffers a stroke a week before the election but does not die. The good ole boy republican base opt out of the election process because the thought of president Palin is scarrier than even a dummicrat in office...HRC wins in a landslide.

but seriously, I think energy issues will take center stage. Who ever can be more effective at getting their message out on how to fix the US energy issues will win...I predict Obama wins the electoral college but loses the popular vote...republicans heads explode...

**Mathematics** · 09-14-2008, 06:54 PM

Israel, realizing neither a McCain or Obama administration will provide anywhere near as much support as the current Bush administration, decides to attack Iran while Bush is still in office for a couple months. WWIII ensues. Terror threat level goes to super-ultra-neon-red, white man fears Hadji, Obama's assassinated & McCain wins.

**TruckeeLocal** · 09-14-2008, 07:00 PM

Originally Posted by Mathematics

Terror threat level goes to super-ultra-neon-red, white man fears Hadji, Obama's assassinated & McCain wins.

White man will be informed by even the most inept reporter that the hadj is a pilgrimage to Mecca. Some might actually do some investigative reporting and find that Mecca is in Saudi Arabia and that it is the pilgrims who should be fearfull. But that all requires education beyond the scope of this board.

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