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09-14-2008, 11:10 AM #1
Your Opinion; How will 2008 Presidential Election play out?
Instead of all the current PolAss discussions about subjects in the here-and-now, I'm curious what the politco Mags think about the future track of this election? What are the subjects that will dominate the campaigns bickering and news coverage, especially in the last month and weeks?
I'd assume the "get to know Palin" buzz will tone down in a week or two. Then what? Does the McCain campaign keep up what even the media is calling a "deceitful" ad barrage? Does it backfire? How tough does Obama get, does he get down in the mud as well? On issues, Iraq seems to still be there, but not preeminent. The economy is the worst it's been in 50 or 100 years, will this be what is being discussed in the final weeks of the campaigning? Or do we end up back at Gods, guns and gays somehow? The first debate is about 2 weeks out now, certainly new subjects will emerge then...
What say you?If some of the best times of my life were skiing the UP in -40 wind chill with nothing but jeans, cotton long johns and a wine flask to keep warm while sleeping in the back of my dad's van... does that make me old school?
"REHAB SAVAGE, REHAB!!!"
09-14-2008, 12:12 PM #2
Personally, I don't make assumptions unless I have some sort of underlying reasons for doing so. What is the basis for your assumption?
If anything, the "buzz" surrounding Palin will only increase the closer we get to the debates, and the election itself. That's the way the media operates...they'll turn-up the volume as we approach the end of the game, and the grand finale itself.
Last edited by AstroPax; 09-14-2008 at 12:29 PM.I got a Nikon camera...I love to take a photograph...So Mama, don't take my Kodachrome away
09-14-2008, 12:44 PM #3
I was in Cabarrus county, NC on saturday night at a fair. There was a McCain table and on the opposite side of the arena an Obama table.
You would think the Obama table would have been chased as out of the room, but it wasn't the case at all, there were still tons of McCain stickers on people as expected, but there were an aweful lot of people supporting Obama. And this was deep into die hard republican land if you know what I mean.
BTW, Joe Biden is in town tonight, tickets were gone in 20 minutes.
09-14-2008, 12:58 PM #4Smokey McPole Guest
I say Obama wins it in a landslide when it comes out about a week before the election that he actually is, in fact, Jesus Christ.
Last edited by Jerzilla!!!; 09-14-2008 at 01:00 PM.
09-14-2008, 01:00 PM #5Smokey McPole Guest
09-14-2008, 01:48 PM #6
Well... I was kinda hoping you'd give some ideas looking forward rather than dissect my post. But hey, let's roll with it;
And to absolutely positively SLAM DUNK my point here; KARL fucking ROVE just said that "McCain has gone in his ads one step too far, and sort of attributing to Obama things that are, you know, beyond the 100-percent-truth test"... Did you get that, KARL ROVE of all people is saying McCain has gone too far, you can't see the humor in that?
just said that recent security gains were "not irreversible" and that the US still faced a "long struggle". And while we are discussing wars, Petraeus also said "the trends in Afghanistan have not gone in the right direction... and that has to be addressed". Comments on that?
He said back in March 2008 that the economy is worst since WWII. So even back in March I would have back up that economy is worst in (2008 - 1945 =) 63 years... you think it's gotten any worse since then???
Well I can add, that Greenspan has come out now and said that this is the worst economy I\\\'ve ever seen and getting worse.
Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan offered a woeful outlook of America's economic situation on Sunday, saying the crisis with the country's financial institutions was as dire as he had ever seen in his long career, and predicting that one or more of those institutions would likely collapse in the near future.
"Oh, by far," Greenspan said, when asked if the situation was the worst he had seen in his career. "There's no question that this is in the process of outstripping anything I've seen and it still is not resolved and still has a way to go and, indeed, it will continue to be a corrosive force until the price of homes in the United States stabilizes. That will induce a series of events around the globe which will stabilize the system."
Originally Posted by Alan Greenspan
Now... any comments back on topic? WHERE DO YOU SEE THIS CAMPAIGN CONTEST GOING IN THE FUTURE???
Last edited by timvwcom; 09-14-2008 at 02:36 PM.If some of the best times of my life were skiing the UP in -40 wind chill with nothing but jeans, cotton long johns and a wine flask to keep warm while sleeping in the back of my dad's van... does that make me old school?
"REHAB SAVAGE, REHAB!!!"
09-14-2008, 03:34 PM #7Registered User
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It seems as if Alan Greenspan is referring to the crisis among financial institutions, not the economy as a whole. It's funny how he never used to talk like that when he was chairman of the Fed. But, now that he's in the private sector, with an agenda and financial interests to protect, it's all fire and brimstone. I'm not necessarily backing this view, but many feel that he is largely responsible for the mess the economy is in now by allowing easy money for too long and blowing a liquidity bubble in the real estate market.
Do you have any empirical evidence to back up your claim that the economy is the worst it's been in 50-100 years? Besides misquoting Greenspan, are there other economists who share your view? Do you think, for example, that Ben Bernanke would agree with you?
As for what transpires between now and the election, I predict not much. There will be noise, but, as you noted, it will be about god, guns and gays. The debates will be a non-event, only serving to prove to each side how weak the opposing candidate is. It's all rather depressing.
09-14-2008, 03:48 PM #8
Prediciton: McCain/Palin will win. Things will continue to get worse. People will bitch for change at the next election. Democrats will come out with a change candidate. Palin will claim she is the real candidate of change.
Palin in 2012.All the years combine
they melt into a dream
09-14-2008, 03:53 PM #9
Last edited by AstroPax; 09-14-2008 at 03:55 PM.I got a Nikon camera...I love to take a photograph...So Mama, don't take my Kodachrome away
09-14-2008, 04:43 PM #10
Well... upon further review it does look like some of those news stories (CNN/Money & ABC News) over generalized Greenspan's comments when I compare their text with the original. Though it is unclear about exactly what Greenspan was referring to in the ABC interview today. Either way, point taken. Perhaps I should modify my original comments to state that big portions of the economy are the worst since the great depression (~75 yrs)... Happy with that? [/begrudging correction ]
I'd ask for comment on the 4 other (of my 5 points), BUT my hope for this thread was to get discussion on what your ideas of where this campaign contest goes for the remaining portion. So, give me some thoughts on that and get this thread back on track from my self administered distraction.If some of the best times of my life were skiing the UP in -40 wind chill with nothing but jeans, cotton long johns and a wine flask to keep warm while sleeping in the back of my dad's van... does that make me old school?
"REHAB SAVAGE, REHAB!!!"
09-14-2008, 04:54 PM #11
It puts the (anti-Obama) reader on the defensive, from the get go. But, then again, that might be part of your objective.
Last edited by AstroPax; 09-14-2008 at 05:00 PM.I got a Nikon camera...I love to take a photograph...So Mama, don't take my Kodachrome away
09-14-2008, 04:56 PM #12Registered User
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09-14-2008, 05:04 PM #13I got a Nikon camera...I love to take a photograph...So Mama, don't take my Kodachrome away
09-14-2008, 05:08 PM #14I got a Nikon camera...I love to take a photograph...So Mama, don't take my Kodachrome away
09-14-2008, 05:11 PM #15
And thanks for your comments in the earlier thread on where you think the contest goes!
"REHAB SAVAGE, REHAB!!!"
09-14-2008, 05:16 PM #16
I think the debates will be very decisive, and the VP debate will actually mean something this time, simply because they will hide Palin until then. If she has a good showing and doesn't come across as uninformed, and Biden doesn't come across as a big meany, then the Republican base will decide that she's reason enough to vote for someone they've disliked for a decade and pulled through the meat grinder in 2000.
If she ends up looking ill-infomed and pissy I think the good-ole boys will sit this one out and Obama wins despite the current polls.
There is very little McCain can do to help his ticket from now on -- he's not a good public speaker and will likely not fare well against a trained orator in the debates. That said Obama needs to stop parsing himself while he answers - he needs to do what Clinton did: order his thoughts first (the "Clinton Moment") and then answer succinctly, without the umms and ahs.
09-14-2008, 05:19 PM #17
I predict a national crisis, ie Iran, will take center stage and Americans will once again vote out of fear to keep the US safe. That means McSame and Vilf.More Rope Tows, Less Lattes
09-14-2008, 05:23 PM #18
McCain Campaign--In October you will see ads highlighting Obama's questionable background. The 527 groups will hit the Rev. Wright, Rezko, Ayers and other ethics/leftist slams. McCain will focus on Obama's experience and his plan for the future.
Obama Campaign-- Obama will a campaign will focus on tying McCain to Bush. He will paint the story that Iraq was a failure and the economy is in shambles. The 527 groups will slam Palin, question McCain's health among other slams.
I think McCain chances to win are 75%.
If Obama sticks to the issues and is not perceived as unfair he increase his chances to win. He needs to win back the independant and woman voters from Palin. It is tricky, because if he or the press is perceived as unfair it will solidify her support.
Elections are won by relatively small margins. The republicans will vote for McCain and the Democrats will vote for Obama. Since every Democrat wins 90+ percent of the black vote, Obama support in the black community is meaningless to the vote total. Any democrat would have those votes. His problem is he definitely will lose a couple percent of old time democrats that will not vote for a black guy with Obamas past.
McCain has the advantage that the votes being fought over tend to be middle of the road politically. McCain has a track record of being in the middle of road. He partnered with democrats on many issues to the chagrin of the conservative base. He needs to communicate that record over the next two months. If he does, the election calculus definitely favors him.
09-14-2008, 05:23 PM #19
Last edited by AstroPax; 09-14-2008 at 05:28 PM.I got a Nikon camera...I love to take a photograph...So Mama, don't take my Kodachrome away
09-14-2008, 05:46 PM #20
The polls will continue to level out until the debates, Obama will utterly crush McCain, both by showing poise where McCain loses his temper, and by revealing McCain's lack of grasp of the issues other than foreign policy, revealing him as the dottering, angry, out of touch old man that he is.
In the VP debates, Biden will dominate Palin to the extent that her facade crumbles and instinctively releases a personally directed bombast which reveals the evil witch beneath; her meltdown becomes the most popular video ever on youtube, and she loses about half her support among the women who just wanted to vote for a woman, because they are now reminded of a vindictive head cheerleader who was cruel to them in highschool.
Bush attempts to help McCain by starting a war with Pakistan and bombs Iran at the beginning of November, but somehow enough moderate Republicans see through the fear to realize that Obama will prevent WWIII from developing out of it, and the fear of a reinstitution of the draft drives youth to the polls in record numbers.
Obama wins in a nail biter, by about three percentage points, with late support from Nevada, Idaho and Montana.
Last edited by Rasputin; 09-14-2008 at 05:52 PM.
09-14-2008, 06:23 PM #21Man, Myth, Legend
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Are you guys sure the Obama is not a terrorist who has successfully infultrated the US, and has pulled the wool over everyone's eyes for decades. C'mon. Muslim. Religious extremist church and pastor. Growing up outside the continental US. Unknown until just a few short years ago. Can't you see this guy winning the election, and then turning on us? It's like a bad espionage movie.Legendary Stud
09-14-2008, 06:40 PM #22
I think the country is in fine shape. The politicos have to generate the right kind of fear to turn the vote their way. Hence the Republicans create an external threat and demonstrate a capability (or in the the case of Palin the naivite) and willingness to tackle it. While the Dems create an internal fear and hence the need for change. Voters prefer the external threat scenario and aren't necessarily comfortable with change (because things aren't that bad for most actually). Hence nothing changes and the Dems will lose again.
09-14-2008, 06:46 PM #23
but seriously, I think energy issues will take center stage. Who ever can be more effective at getting their message out on how to fix the US energy issues will win...I predict Obama wins the electoral college but loses the popular vote...republicans heads explode...
Last edited by Adolf Allerbush; 09-14-2008 at 06:49 PM.Damn shame, throwing away a perfectly good white boy like that
09-14-2008, 06:54 PM #24
Israel, realizing neither a McCain or Obama administration will provide anywhere near as much support as the current Bush administration, decides to attack Iran while Bush is still in office for a couple months. WWIII ensues. Terror threat level goes to super-ultra-neon-red, white man fears Hadji, Obama's assassinated & McCain wins.
09-14-2008, 07:00 PM #25