Colorado Weather Discussion Thread

[montanaskier]

Yesterday was 2 degrees off a record high and 16 degrees above average. As cool a summer as we had, it's been a warm fall. It'll come and it's certainly hard to complain about sunny and 67.

[Hott Butt Mud]

Yep, I could care less about Keystone being able to open by 10/31. I think it's been cold at night, but not sure if it's been long enough for them to really crank out some snow.

I kinda hope it just dumps snow around 11/15 and the resorts all get to be 80% open on opening day.....

[rmnpsplitter]

Been diggin the extended summer to get a few more hikes with the little one too. But if I'm being completely honest, I'm ready for the snow to start cranking or at least for some cold temps to start thinning the crowds out up here. We have had a ridiculously busy fall for EP, good for all the local businesses. Weather pattern change in two weeks...

[The SnowShow]

Weather pattern change in two weeks...

Those words bring back bad memories of winter '12

I'm loving the weather after a wetter summer where for me it was hard to get out early enough to tag high peaks (2 year old). I felt like every hike up high I was racing the weather more than normal. This fall has been great for hiking, biking and golf.

[hatchgreenchile]

That ridge off the Pacific coast has been dominant for 3 straight winters; last year central & northern CO got clipped by most of storms and had a great year. Hopefully the pattern changes, but I wouldn't put much faith in any 2+ week forecast.

[montanaskier]

If this supposed El Niño develops, the N mtns are gonna struggle. Cut off lows and upslopes will be the theme.

[FiveLarge]

^^^
Last update I read on possible formation of El Nino:

Oct. 8 (Bloomberg) -- El Nino has failed again to arrive, and past performance says the odds are dwindling for the phenomenon that warms the equatorial Pacific and changes weather patterns around the world.
The Australian Bureau of Meteorology yesterday maintained its El Nino watch and said there’s still more than double the normal chance the ocean warming will develop later this year. A look at the record since 1950, however, shows that in most cases, an El Nino probably would have been here by now.
If discussion and commentary had anything to do with it, it definitely would have developed already. Some people have been rooting for this El Nino for almost a year now.
Of the 33 El Nino and La Nina events since 1950, three began in the period from September through November, three in October through December and one, in 1953, in December-February, according to a blog post by Emily Becker, a research scientist contracting to the U.S. Climate Prediction Center in College Park, Maryland. Researchers like to see the conditions associated with an El Nino or La Nina, a Pacific cooling, stick around for at least three months before declaring it a reality.
Becker said 60 years isn’t an extensive record. In the past
10 years, which have been very active, two events began in the October-December period.

Inconsistent Warmth

Currently, while the spot in the Pacific scientists use to measure an El Nino has been a little warmer than normal on and off for the past few months, like a high-potential but low- achieving high school student, it hasn’t been consistent.
“Tropical Pacific Ocean ENSO indicators remain within the neutral range, having failed to maintain sustained values typical of El Nino,” the Australian bureau said yesterday.
Even if an El Nino does form, computer models suggest it won’t be strong, the bureau said.
The Climate Prediction Center, which says there’s a 60 percent to 65 percent chance an El Nino will form in the next three months, weighs in with its latest assessment tomorrow.
Japan’s Meteorological Agency said the chances the warming will occur are about the same as the odds for neutral conditions.
An El Nino’s effects on the U.S. during the Northern Hemisphere Winter can include a warmer-than-normal Northeast and upper Midwest, as well as a storm track that brings more chances for rain or snow across the southern states. The stronger the El Nino, the greater the impact.
The Western Hemisphere’s oceans are acting in some ways as though an El Nino did develop. The Atlantic has produced five named tropical systems this year, well below the 30-year normal of 12. The eastern Pacific has had 18, probably what would have happened if its equatorial waters had warmed.
El Ninos also often mean drier conditions across Australia, and that may happen again this year even if the threshold for the phenomenon isn’t crossed, the bureau of meteorology said.
The Pacific is still warmer than average and the seas just to Australia’s north are cool. The combination means chances are high there won’t be a lot of rain, the bureau said.

[rmnpsplitter]

If this supposed El Niño develops, the N mtns are gonna struggle. Cut off lows and upslopes will be the theme.

That'd work out ok for us. Love me some upslope dumps

[Name Redacted]

You guys get your Eldora passes yet?

There's still "Equal Chances" of either kind of winter forming, but the forecasters are leaning toward southern storm track. But as they say, one or two perfectly places storms could make or break a season. The forecaster at CSAW the other day felt there was still a chance for extreme conditions, either way (dry or wet). I think they need a few hundred years more data before they can make even start to make an educated guess at a seasonal forecast.

[simple]

Even if upslope storms happened consistently i couldn't get stoked to ride eldora. 900 vertical feet of yaaaawwwwnnn and trees that need to be cleared out.

[WTF is dat]

Even if upslope storms happened consistently i couldn't get stoked to ride eldora. 900 vertical feet of yaaaawwwwnnn and trees that need to be cleared out.

ha you are missing out if you think that is all Eldora has to offer.

good. more pow for me on an already deserted mountain

[Hott Butt Mud]

ha you are missing out if you think that is all Eldora has to offer.

good. more pow for me on an already deserted mountain

Please stay at Eldora.

[WTF is dat]

I avoid eldora whenever possible and make the bullshit drive to summit /eagle. Eldora sucks a good 60-70 percent of the time.

but the place definitely has its moments... nothing beats making the 30 minute drive from Boulder on a random snowy tuesday and finding only 30 or 40 cars in the parking lot... and still dumping snow.

you are lying if you think having a mountain all to yourself on a powder day sucks. I would take an empty pow day at eldora over the epic shitshow pow days summit and eagle county see frequently. Hell, even mid week summit gets tracked out incredibly fast. eldora is simply not like that. I will gladly take 1000 feet of vertical and untracked all day versus 2000 of vertical and untracked until 1030

[fastfred]

Those words bring back bad memories of winter '12

yeah, I was working outside all october in 2012 it was boiling hot and dry, my partner everyday would freak out thinking he was suppose to goto work at the resort at the end of the month and have a run open, everyday was like no way in hell is that going to happen it was just too hot I think it started snowing nov 1st didn't stop till june and half the mountain was open by thanksgiving

you never know

ebola mountain is a nice little place to go skiing specially when you don't want to deal with i70 shit show

[The SnowShow]

^^^I was referring to the crap record low season a few seasons back where everyone kept indicating "a pattern change in two weeks" was coming...never did

[skiracer88_00]

ha you are missing out if you think that is all Eldora has to offer.

good. more pow for me on an already deserted mountain

The entire city of boulder infiltrates Eldora on every powder day....so much so that they typically have to turn people away. The place gets tracked out completely in about 20 minutes.

[Like a Boss]

Ah, CWDT, how I've missed the butthurt, poo flinging, pattern change in 2 weeksing, Summit/Eagle hate, GFS modeling, etc. Back in the saddle.

[hatchgreenchile]

^^ Don't forget the University of Alabama Pacific RidgeTM butthurt

[WTF is dat]

The entire city of boulder infiltrates Eldora on every powder day....so much so that they typically have to turn people away. The place gets tracked out completely in about 20 minutes.

yeah that is on weekends when they report more than 15 inches plus at 5 AM.

I have never seen the parking lot full on weekdays even when it has been deep you just proved to me you have no idea what you are talking about

[Bronic]

Ah, CWDT, how I've missed the butthurt, poo flinging, pattern change in 2 weeksing, Summit/Eagle hate, GFS modeling, etc. Back in the saddle.

+1

[cmsummit]

My kiddo has a new fall school break, so we just high tailed it to the UT desert for 5 days. Incredible weather for backpacking in Escalante - Grand Staircase and car camping at Goblin Valley. Honestly, I'd be fine with a few more weeks of high and dry, then it starts in earnest by mid-November.

::ducks::

[The SnowShow]

anyone see the new Powder issue with the Loveland article. Hoping that doesn't lead to more people

[grskier]

anyone see the new Powder issue with the Loveland article. Hoping that doesn't lead to more people

A lot of maggots and honorary mags in that issue


Yeah, I remember 2007-2008 here we barely got open for turkey day, then it snowed like a bunch of the next months

[Name Redacted]

My kiddo has a new fall school break, so we just high tailed it to the UT desert for 5 days. Incredible weather for backpacking in Escalante - Grand Staircase and car camping at Goblin Valley. Honestly, I'd be fine with a few more weeks of high and dry, then it starts in earnest by mid-November.

::ducks::

Were you with a few other families from Summit? Buddy of mine just got back too. This is definitely my favorite time of the year for the desert.

[smmokan]

anyone see the new Powder issue with the Loveland article. Hoping that doesn't lead to more people

Yep, that was an awesome issue... the stories on Loveland and CB were great. Well-written and they had some great shots too.