Thread: Colorado Weather Discussion Thread

Originally Posted by montanaskier

rode some backcountry in Summit Cty today. Made it up to about 12k before the MASSIVE wind turned us back. It was gusting to 50mph would be my guess, hard to stand up at times. DUMPING snow up high and snowing lightly in town at Breck and Copper. Sunny and warm back in Eagle County. Yesterdays 50 degree mark was a bit of a surprise. I will not be surprised to see some locations as high as possiblyb 8k threaten 60 on Wednesday. Last night it didn't drop below freezing for the first time this season at 7800.

NOt sure what to think of next weekends storm yet.

This was a very interesting day of weather in Vail. In the valley floor in Vail it was sunny and warm. Above midvail towards East Vail (basically chair 11 and over) it was dumping with the same winds you experienced. The weather station in china bowl was reporting 60mph winds at around noon today. they closed the back bowls and even chair 14 bc the winds were so high.

Alot of snow fell in EV and the winds are insane. There was a ton of snow moving around out there. The most interesting part was the wind direction. Seemed straight out the east. There are going to be peeled back cornices that will get sunbaked and eventually reloaded if they make it till next weekend. Definitely going to cause a buncha spooky snowpack activity in EC this week.

CRAP.

Used the last of miles for one last blast next week before the party is over. Any mags want to meet at Belle's and grill up one day hit me up and we'll plan it. Assuming we can get there!

One little icy cold front, is that too much to ask?

Originally Posted by WTF is dat

so vail was a mess yesterday anywhere below midvail. If we dont get some serious snowfall, we will be downloading in just a couple of weeks.

you'd think this was epic ski or somewhere else. What a bunch of butt hurt lightweights. It's not that bad at all, it doesn't look anywhere close to having download this season for me.

"Death before Download!"

Strawberry Park was on wind hold for most of the day and Rose Bowl never opened. Coming up Chair 8 the clouds were moving due West and fast. Base area was like a day at the beach, the top was a gloomy windfest. Very apocalyptic.

Cramp-- the wife is out of town this weekend and my college roommate is in town. Shoot me a PM when you roll in and we'll get beers this weekend. I'm riding on Sat and Sun.

8"-10" new at my place in Alma which all fell between 9am and 6pm. Should be a good day at Breck tomorrow since it dumped all day on the mountain with barely a dusting in town. No crowds either which is always nice.

Originally Posted by PowTrees

you'd think this was epic ski or somewhere else. What a bunch of butt hurt lightweights. It's not that bad at all, it doesn't look anywhere close to having download this season for me.

"Death before Download!"

Oh no you didn't! If I had a $ every time I saw you on a powder day "ripping" a groomer from the chair I could have bought some sweet Metrons.

4-5" just about everywhere.... pffft.

Originally Posted by smmokan

4-5" just about everywhere.... pffft.

We should have went to Echo, 12" fresh on all of their rails!

Originally Posted by PowTrees

you'd think this was epic ski or somewhere else. What a bunch of butt hurt lightweights. It's not that bad at all, it doesn't look anywhere close to having download this season for me.

"Death before Download!"

agree....downloading is for pussy JONGS

Originally Posted by The SnowShow

agree....downloading is for pussy JONGS

That could go either way, quite clever really.

Downloading is for pussy, JONGS.

still fairly confident that we will hit or just miss 60 degrees in Vail on Wed. After that a storm that should actually favor our area rolls into town. The ridge is strong and the storm will weaken some trying to push it out of the way. However the flow is favorable and dynamics should be good so I'd say 5-10" would be a safe bet for those favoring a NW flow. Another ridge builds but a NWerly flow aloft should ride teh backside of that ridge and could keep unsettled weather in the NWerly favored zones for another day or two. Enjoy Wednesday...break out the flip flops...then put em away as the weekend should be about 25 degrees colder.

Originally Posted by montanaskier

still fairly confident that we will hit or just miss 60 degrees in Vail on Wed. After that a storm that should actually favor our area rolls into town. The ridge is strong and the storm will weaken some trying to push it out of the way. However the flow is favorable and dynamics should be good so I'd say 5-10" would be a safe bet for those favoring a NW flow. Another ridge builds but a NWerly flow aloft should ride teh backside of that ridge and could keep unsettled weather in the NWerly favored zones for another day or two. Enjoy Wednesday...break out the flip flops...then put em away as the weekend should be about 25 degrees colder.

Any hope for the Basin?

Heaviest snow from the divide east. Denver is looking at 6-8" and abasin and LL should do well. Echo will be deep on the rails!

Originally Posted by karpiel

That could go either way, quite clever really.

Downloading is for pussy, JONGS.

I download for pussy on a daily basis

Originally Posted by The SnowShow

I download for pussy on a daily basis

You must not be married with kids

Originally Posted by Gregger

Heaviest snow from the divide east. Denver is looking at 6-8" and abasin and LL should do well. Echo will be deep on the rails!

REALLY? I don't see that developing at all. NW flow after the front passes and while it does dig south it appears to favor the north more. What am I missing?

Originally Posted by montanaskier

REALLY? I don't see that developing at all. NW flow after the front passes and while it does dig south it appears to favor the north more. What am I missing?

NOAA is sticking to the heaviest precip being east of the divide due to the strong and deep upslope kicking in after the front passes and the low winds up to the south. Models seem in line with this.

I guess we'll see. I see the low digging south but winds will shift to the NW once it passes on Friday night. As long as Eagle County gets a foot plus which I think is possible, it wouldn't hurt my feelings to see LL, Abay, and others to get more.

Originally Posted by montanaskier

I guess we'll see. I see the low digging south but winds will shift to the NW once it passes on Friday night. As long as Eagle County gets a foot plus which I think is possible, it wouldn't hurt my feelings to see LL, Abay, and others to get more.

As much as I want a big dumpage in EC and all across the I-70 corridor, you can't wishcast. I'm just going off the models, the forecast discussion and whatnot. Maybe Joel has some insight.

Originally Posted by Gregger

As much as I want a big dumpage in EC and all across the I-70 corridor, you can't wishcast. I'm just going off the models, the forecast discussion and whatnot. Maybe Joel has some insight.

There is no wishcasting going on here. Read the Junction Forecast discussion:

MODELS STILL POINTING TOWARD A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM FOR THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. ECMWF AND GFS GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THIS EVENT.

......

DIFFICULT TO GET
INTO SPECIFICS WITH RESPECT TO SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS...BUT APPEARS
THAT MANY MOUNTAIN RANGES WITHIN THE CWFA WILL SEE OVER A FOOT BY
SATURDAY MORNING.

no word from Joel, I think all areas wiill get snow but Summit might do the best. Long range outlooks is for WAY above average temps and WAY below average precip. However those things are all over the board so not confident on that outlook.

I am flying in from Maui saturday and will bring the magic of the pineapple express. It will snow or a round on me!

and maybe some suspicious looking baggies...

Sorry to be MIA. I spent some time adding to my website, and now I have a page with projected snowfall by resort.

Updated blog post here:
http://www.coloradopowderforecast.co...stop-believen/

Updated "Quick Forecast" page here:
http://www.coloradopowderforecast.com/quick-forecast/

This storm is going to feature two parts. Part one is a strong cold front oriented from NE to SW that will move across the state fro NW to SE. As the front moves across from Thursday night through midday Friday, there will be a band of very heavy snow. If the front doesn't move too fast, this could amount to a quick 3-6"+ of snowfall. After the front, the winds look to turn more northerly (from the north), which isn't awesome for orographic snow in Eagle Co. but better in Summit Co. This wind direction is completely dependent on the exactly placement of the center of the storm, and a small change in this could mean either a more NW wind direction or more from the NE. At this point, the models are somewhat consistent with a generally northerly wind direction after the front. Since the front will make it all the way into New Mexico, all the mountains should get in on the action.

To the east, good upslope flow will hit the front range peaks, foothills, and plains, and it'll be cooooold, so it'll be all snow on the plains. Somewhere along the divide and to the east could see the most snow out of this storm.

Originally Posted by knumbskull

There is no wishcasting going on here. Read the Junction Forecast discussion:

MODELS STILL POINTING TOWARD A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM FOR THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. ECMWF AND GFS GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THIS EVENT.

......

DIFFICULT TO GET
INTO SPECIFICS WITH RESPECT TO SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS...BUT APPEARS
THAT MANY MOUNTAIN RANGES WITHIN THE CWFA WILL SEE OVER A FOOT BY
SATURDAY MORNING.

Originally Posted by gratzo

Sorry to be MIA. I spent some time adding to my website, and now I have a page with projected snowfall by resort.

Updated blog post here:
http://www.coloradopowderforecast.co...stop-believen/

Updated "Quick Forecast" page here:
http://www.coloradopowderforecast.com/quick-forecast/

This storm is going to feature two parts. Part one is a strong cold front oriented from NE to SW that will move across the state fro NW to SE. As the front moves across from Thursday night through midday Friday, there will be a band of very heavy snow. If the front doesn't move too fast, this could amount to a quick 3-6"+ of snowfall. After the front, the winds look to turn more northerly (from the north), which isn't awesome for orographic snow in Eagle Co. but better in Summit Co. This wind direction is completely dependent on the exactly placement of the center of the storm, and a small change in this could mean either a more NW wind direction or more from the NE. At this point, the models are somewhat consistent with a generally northerly wind direction after the front. Since the front will make it all the way into New Mexico, all the mountains should get in on the action.

To the east, good upslope flow will hit the front range peaks, foothills, and plains, and it'll be cooooold, so it'll be all snow on the plains. Somewhere along the divide and to the east could see the most snow out of this storm.

Wow Knumbskull, I was WAY off.


Thanks Joel. That's pretty much what I was ready out of the models as well. We appreciate your input and work!