El Nino and the PNW?

[Parvo]

i don't know who's spreading this, but it doesn't matter because i don't know what it means anyway. but everyone is telling me we're in store for one up here. any meteorologists maggots know what this means for resorts in eastern washington/northern idaho? because i'll move back to utah tomorrow if it means a "drier than normal winter" for the PNW.

[NorCascader]

we skied Crystal two years back, a weak bastard-evil-child known as El Nino showed up to create a wet warm inversions (which are common in years).
It snowed 2 feet, then the next day rained for a week.
if-only-it-was-12 degrees colder...would have been insane.
they lost mad base.
But...same year, closing day (april something) it snowed 10" in the morning!

prepare for rain at low resorts (every resort expcept Mission & Crystal)
Baker doesn't count, it's a given.
In February, when it absolutely shit pours at 6000', you'll curse the bastartd evil child known as El Nino.

As for moving back to UT...
the last horrible El Nino, ya know the Baker super supreme world record year...Big sky had it's best year in ages. That year the wave wall went off.
It was fresh snow everyday for weeks and weeks on end.

Invest in raingear.
skiing in the rain isn't too bad....
but then again i grew up at Baker.

don't be scared just go higher

[falou]

Well according to Accuweather, there's a weak El Nino and NW is going to be warmer and dryer. Who knows if anybody can predict that far out.

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/images/promos/winter2006/snowfall.jpg

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/images/promos/winter2006/wintertemps.jpg

[milkman]

Do a search. It's been discussed before. Check this thread first:

http://tetongravity.com/forums/showthread.php?t=61314&highlight=nino

[Van_skier]

Pique article (http://www.piquenewsmagazine.com/pique/index.php?cat=C_News&content=Winter+weather+1341):

Environment Canada predicting warmer winter
El Niño could be good news for Whistler

Published Date: 2006-10-12 Time: 10:10:42

By Andrew Mitchell

While no doubt some Canadians are welcoming the Meteorological Service of Canada’s forecast of a warm, dry winter, the impact on coastal mountain resorts like Whistler may not be as bad.

According to MSC weather forecaster Peter Jones, the main culprit behind the warmer temperatures is an El Niño developing over the eastern Pacific Ocean.

Warmer El Niño waters typically influence temperatures across Canada, to the extent that it has become one of the more reliable forecasting tools for meteorologists.

The connection between El Niño and precipitation is less certain, says Jones, and on the coast it can vary depending on the presence of an Aleutian low pressure system further north. While most of the country could experience lower precipitation because of El Niño, the coast could actually be a great deal wetter.

That, says Jones, is where freezing levels come in and higher temperatures will have the greatest impact.

“In the end, what we think we know and do know to some extent is that at lower elevations in the Coast Mountains, 1,200 metres and below, whatever precipitation falls will fall more as rain proportionally than in a normal winter,” said Jones. “When you look at Cypress Bowl at 350 metres you can see the snow at a fraction (of normal) during an El Niño, while at 1,900 metres at the Roundhouse (on Whistler) — where we have records back to 1973 — is more total snow.

“It might be wetter snow on average, because the freezing level is a little higher, but overall that’s what we’ve seen.”

Some of Whistler-Blackcomb’s best winter seasons, including 1997-98 and 1998-99 were El Niño years.

El Niño conditions in the Pacific so far are rated as weak, but according to MSC computer models will become moderate by December and the start of the winter season. As a result there is less likelihood of arctic outbreaks that last for any length of time, if the southern part of the province sees any arctic weather at all, and parts of the Lower Mainland will likely stay snowless throughout the winter.

“Personally I’m a skier so I’m always interested in the data, and I’m anticipating a lot of questions about this because of the huge economic impact it could have on the province, a lot of questions about the snow,” Jones said. “It’s only in rare years that I would take the time to explain what we know, every other year I would say we’re guessing, don’t waste you’re time on this even though we put out a seasonal forecast for every season.

“El Niño winters are different — only when El Niño is moderate or strong do we have any confidence in (the seasonal forecast).”

For December through the end of February, temperatures in the southern part of the province are expected to be about 1.5 degrees Celsius warmer on average, with parts of Ontario and Manitoba expecting temperatures almost three degrees warmer. Temperatures will be close to normal, about one degree warmer than average, for March, April and May.

In terms of precipitation, the Coast Mountains could see anywhere from 0.2 to 3.8 additional millimetres per day, averaged out over December, January and February, while the Interior of the province could see a drop of 0.3 mm per day on average — depending on the strength and position of the Aleutian Low.

Precipitation in March, April and May for the Coast Mountains is forecast to be close to normal, or about 0.1 mm per day above average.

Although there is no established link between El Niño and global warming, some evidence suggests that there’s an indirect link that amplifies the effect of the warmer waters on climate.

It’s interesting to note that Environment Canada’s predictions run against those of the Canadian Almanac, which is predicting temperatures that are one or two degrees colder on average and near normal precipitation. The Almanac also predicts that the most snow will fall in mid-to-late November, from early to mid-January and from mid-to-late February.

While the MSC uses computer models to predict weather, the Almanac uses a secret formula devised in 1792 and calculations based on solar activity and sunspots, as well as weather history.

[Buster Highmen]

As for moving back to UT...
the last horrible El Nino, ya know the Baker super supreme world record year...Big sky had it's best year in ages. That year the wave wall went off.
It was fresh snow everyday for weeks and weeks on end.

Invest in raingear.
skiing in the rain isn't too bad....
but then again i grew up at Baker.

don't be scared just go higher
That year, 98-99, was a 'la Nina' year with colder than normal temps in the S. Pacific.

[NorCascader]

ah...good call...
I get those mixed up + I never believe weather people.

but if I recall, which I do, everywhere else rained alot that year (warmer+wetter)....
except Baker, which still tetered at the 32 degree mark, as usual.

I tend to rely on the farmers almanac...historical + scientific data.

seems like accu-this and msnb-that have their heads up their ass with a 90% chance of shitty in their mouth.

My prediction for this winter is as follows: snow and sometimes rain.
(safe ass prediction in the northwest)

[Buster Highmen]

ah...good call...
I get those mixed up + I never believe weather people.

Don't worry, reliance on faith in the absence of intelligence or reason is an increasingly common fallback.



but if I recall, which I do, everywhere else rained alot that year (warmer+wetter)....
except Baker, which still tetered at the 32 degree mark, as usual.

I can understand your perception there. Independent of fact.


I tend to rely on the farmers almanac...historical + scientific data.

The laws of averages are a powerful thing.



seems like accu-this and msnb-that have their heads up their ass with a 90% chance of shitty in their mouth.

Usually, they just parrot what NOAA has forecast, that wasteful federal institution populated by gourd shaking witch doctors.


My prediction for this winter is as follows: snow and sometimes rain.
(safe ass prediction in the northwest)
Provided the sun rises in the East.

[PNWbrit]

Pique article (http://www.piquenewsmagazine.com/pique/index.php?cat=C_News&content=Winter+weather+1341):

Environment Canada predicting warmer winter
El Niño could be good news for Whistler

Published Date: 2006-10-12 Time: 10:10:42

By Andrew Mitchell


.....Some of Whistler-Blackcomb’s best winter seasons, including 1997-98 and 1998-99 were El Niño years......


At least Mr Mitchell got it 50% right :rolleyes2

NorCasder - we have some of the worlds best weather forecasts and mountain weather info in Washington. Our weather is also some of the most complicated.

This is a very good read http://www.amazon.com/Northwest-Mountain-Weather-Understanding-Forecasting/dp/0898862973/sr=1-5/qid=1161278903/ref=sr_1_5/002-6472657-5578447?ie=UTF8&s=books

And this http://www.avalanchenw.org/membership.html is a great place to donate

[Jumper Bones]

October 18, 2006

By Associated Press

SEATTLE - A climate researcher at the University of Washington says Pacific Northwest winters will be getting more gray and rainy over the next 50 to 100 years, due to a low-pressure system near the Aleutian Islands that is moving farther to the north and east.

Eric Salathe said weather that far in the future may not seem relevant to the average person, but the storms brought on by climate change will affect everyone paying for or designing a new bridge or roadway today.

Weather systems near the Aleutian Islands affect rain patterns in western Oregon, Washington, British Columbia and Alaska because the path of storms along the jetstream is affected by what happens in and above the Pacific Ocean, Salathe explained.

"The whole storm system in the north Pacific is tracking northward," but that's just half of the story, Salathe said. "Even though the storms are moving northward, they are becoming more intense."

He predicted a 5 percent to 15 percent increase in Washington and Oregon rain and a 10 percent to 20 percent increase in Alaska rain 50 to 100 years from now. The storms will be both more intense and more frequent, leading to more flooding, more water flow in rivers and erosion of salmon habitat.

"The problem is it's more water, but more water at the wrong time. We already have plenty of water in November," Salathe said.

When asked if this forecast could be good news for skiers, the researcher said it probably wouldn't be helpful to anyone but engineers and planners. Lower-elevation ski areas could see more rain than snow in future seasons because of a combination of global warming and increased precipitation, he said.

People who design infrastructures like bridges and stormwater systems with underground pipes or culverts depend on information like Salathe's report, which was published Oct. 13 in the online edition of the journal Geophysical Research Letters.

"Often they plan these things based on what we've seen in the recent past. The future isn't going to look like the past," Salathe said. "The best thing is to factor in a little bit more margin of safety."

Salathe said computer technology improvements in the last five years have made this kind of precise climate predicting possible. His team of researchers, part of the university's Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Oceans, took data gathered by other scientists around the world and analyzed it for the Pacific Northwest. The study was paid for by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

He said the Pacific Northwest's climate could eventually be modified if people act to halt or slow global warming and climate change, but previous policies and actions have already decided what will happen in the next 50 years.

"If we stabilized emissions, these scenarios have much less of an impact on the later half of the century," Salathe said, suggesting people drive less, use more efficient vehicles and influence developing economies like China to be more energy efficient than the United States has been. "The worst parts are still up to us."

http://www.komotv.com/stories/46051.htm

[NorCascader]

that ol' weather dog Jeff Renner. I remember him flying into Camp when I was a wee one and giving a detailed predictions of future weather patterns. I consider him family.Good links!

heiman...thanks for the detailed breakdown of opinion vs. fact. awesome!
Usually I like to roll the chicken bones and flip three coins whilest farting.
This simple action, known as "fartometrics" alert me to approaching weather, it's severity and how mountains will fare.

history...observation...short term forcasts...altimeter...barometer...and fartometrics is all I really need.

that being said....it's been snowing on washington pass, turns in two weeks yeah!

[wizard604]

lastest Noaa winter forecast is up. http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2006/s2724.htm

no really new info but rehash of last report.

[Bring On The Snow]

el nino is a area of warm water in the south pacific it usually brings warmer but wetter weather


i think

[theSNOW'n_ranger]

I heard this year is an "El Grande" year!! Any confirmations??

[freshies]

this just in: they have no clue: everything i read (and i obsess about weather as it relates to snow) seems to contradict one another: one guy says mild el nino = more snow, another says less snow b/c of warmer temps = higher snow levels, another says no real impact for snow totals, etc.

all i know is past el nino's in the sierras have been pretty epic, so cross your fingers and pray to Ullr :p

[Dug]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/multi_season/13_seasonal_outlooks/color/churchill.html

There you go. That pretty much covers everything. It wont necessarily mean we'll get less snow and more rain on a day to day basis, but what it does indicate is that by the end of the season, we should find that the average temperature and precipitation should be as indicated by the charts above.

Trust me, I'm studying this in college right now. Wanna fight about it? :yourock:

[Rasputin]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/multi_season/13_seasonal_outlooks/color/churchill.html

There you go. That pretty much covers everything. It wont necessarily mean we'll get less snow and more rain on a day to day basis, but what it does indicate is that by the end of the season, we should find that the average temperature and precipitation should be as indicated by the charts above.

Trust me, I'm studying this in college right now. Wanna fight about it? :yourock:

Yes I wanna fight about it. I find the forecast unsatisfying, therefore you must suffer grievously. :the_finge

[Parvo]

after working in the ski industry for nearly 15 years, i've realized that the fuckstick weatherpeople can't even predict yesterday's weather, let alone my precious seaon.

[NorCascader]

It's snowing like a mutha fucker outside of my E. Washington office window.
I feel all fucking giddy and want to bitch slap a weather bitch.
I'm going to do a fucking snow angel...well, not really.

Where the fuck are my new squads from UPS/Canada........I want

[wizard604]

Major precip in PNW. Hope freezing levels stay low enuff for it to fall as snow. So far it's been snow

[Bring On The Snow]

Major precip in PNW. Hope freezing levels stay low enuff for it to fall as snow. So far it's been snow

WOOT WOOT puking at roudhouse on whistler (from looking at cams) supposed to snow like a bastard tommorow then rain monday then turn back to snow tuesday then a little break form the precip then more snow

[IHeartWhistler]

Well, if this longterm forcast is at all reliable, at least we'll have man-made snow for the opening of Whistler: http://www.weathernetwork.com/weather/14day/pages/CABC0322.htm?CABC0322

[Bring On The Snow]

i guarentee that forecast is not accurate past 5-7 day but man made snow isnt to bad as long as its cold and not slush. Looks like some real snow for the end of next week tho

[PNWbrit]

National Weather Service forecaster discussion this afternoon "LONG TERM...THE MODELS ARE COOL WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM IN CONTROL AND WHAT LOOKS LIKE A GOOD SNOWPACK BUILDING PATTERN"

[bossass]

Must get colder!

http://nimbo.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/index.php?wfo=pqr&zone=orz011&fire=orz609&county=orc027&dgtl=1&lat=45.369583333333&lon=-121.66625

[dk_alaskan]

DAMN WEATHER PATTERN!!! what the HELL is wrong with this picture, record highs this week the inland pac nw, mid 60's, snow level rising to over 7000', rain all but gauranteed EVERY day of the next week.....WHERE is uller when you need him?

[NorCascader]

fack....
6-9" rain in the mountains....if-only-it-was.....fack

[skimasterflex]

it was like 78 degrees today in Northern Cal.

[IHeartWhistler]

There is hope!! FRIDAY.. SNOW. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION 15 TO 25 CM.

[Bring On The Snow]

yes also.... tuesday wet snow changing to snow heavy at times accumulation 10-20 cm

[wren]

Looks like all our praying worked:

WHISTLER - BLACKCOMB.
TODAY..CLOUDY. 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF FLURRIES.
ALPINE HIGH MINUS 5.
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION TRACE.
FREEZING LEVEL NEAR VALLEY BOTTOM.
MOUNTAIN TOP WINDS SOUTHWEST 40 KM/H GUSTING TO 60 DIMINISHING TO 20 IN THE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT..CLOUDY.
ALPINE LOW MINUS 7.
FREEZING LEVEL NEAR VALLEY BOTTOM.
MOUNTAIN TOP WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
THURSDAY..CLOUDY WITH SUNNY PERIODS.
SNOW DEVELOPING NEAR MIDNIGHT.
ALPINE HIGH MINUS 6.
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION TRACE TO 2 CM.
FREEZING LEVEL NEAR VALLEY BOTTOM.
MOUNTAIN TOP WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

5 DAY TREND..A STRONG PACIFIC STORM WILL APPROACH THE COAST AND STALL. HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.

EXTENDED FORECAST FOR WHISTLER - BLACKCOMB.
FRIDAY.. SNOW AT TIMES HEAVY. WINDY.
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION 30 TO 40 CM.
FREEZING LEVEL 1000 METRES.
SATURDAY.. SNOW AT TIMES HEAVY.
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION 30 TO 40 CM.
FREEZING LEVEL 1000 METRES.
SUNDAY.. SNOW AT TIMES HEAVY.
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION 40 TO 50 CM.
FREEZING LEVEL 1250 METRES.

[IHeartWhistler]

I just saw that!! YES!! FINALLY!!

[IHeartWhistler]

Does anyone know whistler's policy on opening early? How much snow do they need? Any chance of a monday opening if all this forcasted snow falls?

**prays**

[Limowreck]

Blackcomb opened 2-3 weeks early last year with something like a 90cm base. They could probably open with less than that, but I doubt they would.

[extreeski]

Well, I say get it while you can!

Go for high anchorage, low risk terrain terrain! Nice thing about PNW, lots of little trees everywhere for anchors. Early seasons can be really stable if you know what you're doin. NOT that I do or anything.

Oregon Cascades Forecast!

:yourock:

Tonight: Showers and isolated thunderstorms in the evening...then showers likely after midnight. Snow level 3000 feet. Snow accumulation up to 6 inches. Pass winds southwest 5 to 15 mph.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Snow level 3000 feet rising to 3500 feet in the afternoon. Pass winds southwest 5 to 15 mph.

Thursday night: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. ]Snow level 3500 feet rising to 4000 feet after midnight.[/B] Pass winds south 5 to 15 mph. Gusts to 30 mph after midnight.

Friday: A chance of rain and snow likely in the morning...then rain and snow in the afternoon. Breezy. Snow level 5000 feet lowering to 4500 feet in the afternoon. Pass winds southwest 15 to 25 mph with gust 35 mph.

Friday night: Rain with showers likely in the evening...then showers likely after midnight. Snow level 4500 feet lowering to 4000 feet after midnight. Pass winds southwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts 35 mph.

Veterans day: Showers likely. Snow level 3500 feet.

Saturday night: Showers likely. Snow level 3500 feet.

Sunday: Rain and snow likely. Snow level 3500 feet.

Sunday night: Rain and snow likely. Breezy. Snow level 6000 feet north and 7000 feet south.

Monday: Showers likely. Breezy. Snow level 5000 feet lowering to 3500 feet in the afternoon.

Monday night: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Snow level 2500 feet.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Snow level 2500 feet.

Scary thing about an El Nino is we can also get 10 to 15 feet of snow in a couple weeks, then the pattern shifts and the moisture comes from Hawaii and we're screwed.

[Bring On The Snow]

im thinking maybe a next friday opener?

but they might just wait till the schedualed opener on the 23rd

[yesIsaidyes]

Well, I say get it while you can!

Go for high anchorage, low risk terrain terrain! Nice thing about PNW, lots of little trees everywhere for anchors. Early seasons can be really stable if you know what you're doin. NOT that I do or anything.

That's clear. :)
The rule I have always heard about trees anchoring a slope is that if you can ski through the trees, they ain't anchoring nothing. And they may actually create MORE instability in isolated pockets. Check out Tremper on this.

[IHeartWhistler]

It's still coming!

ALPINE RECREATION FORECAST FOR THE SOUTH COAST MOUNTAINS ISSUED BY THE PACIFIC WEATHER CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 5.00 AM PST FRIDAY 10 NOVEMBER 2006 FOR TODAY TONIGHT SATURDAY SUNDAY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED AT 2.00 PM.

SYNOPSIS..A STRONG FRONT IS BRINGING STRONG WINDS AND MODERATE SNOW TO THIS REGION TODAY. FLURRIES WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

WHISTLER - BLACKCOMB.
TODAY..SNOW HEAVY AT TIMES.
ALPINE HIGH MINUS 5.
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION 10 TO 20 CM.
FREEZING LEVEL AT VALLEY BOTTOM.
MOUNTAIN TOP WINDS SOUTHEAST 60 KM/H GUSTING TO 80 INCREASING EARLY THIS MORNING TO 80 GUSTING TO 120 THEN EASING TO 30 TO 50 THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT..SNOW ENDING LATE THIS EVENING. THEN CLOUDY WITH 70 PERCENT CHANCE OF FLURRIES TOWARDS MORNING.
ALPINE LOW MINUS 6.
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION 5 TO 10 CM.
FREEZING LEVEL AT VALLEY BOTTOM.
MOUNTAIN TOP WINDS SOUTH 30 TO 50 KM/H.
SATURDAY..PERIODS OF SNOW.
ALPINE HIGH MINUS 5.
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION 5 TO 10 CM.
FREEZING LEVEL AT VALLEY BOTTOM.
MOUNTAIN TOP WINDS SOUTHWEST 20 KM/H INCREASING TO 40 TO 60 IN THE AFTERNOON.

5 DAY TREND..A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP THE ALPINE AREA SNOWY THROUGH THE LONG WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

EXTENDED FORECAST FOR WHISTLER - BLACKCOMB.
SUNDAY.. SNOW AT TIMES HEAVY.
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION 30 TO 40 CM.
FREEZING LEVEL 800 METRES.
MONDAY.. SNOW.
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION 20 TO 30 CM.
FREEZING LEVEL 1200 METRES.
TUESDAY.. SNOW.
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION 10 TO 20 CM.
FREEZING LEVEL 900 METRES.

The Grand total of the above being 80-130CM

And the best part... this isn't over. If you look at the longterm forcast for the Whistler region at the site: http://www.weathernetwork.com/weather/14day/pages/CABC0322.htm?CABC0322 it looks to stay cold with rain/snow in the valley right through to NEXT weekend. And the temps look to be staying cool enough in the valley to snow in the alpine.

[wren]

It's absolutely puking and I fucking love it.

[NorCascader]

just about to dump at my place. snow level is around 2000....I can see the snow line dropping....looks like we'll try to get sum @ silver star this weekend...

anyone...anyone

[gobblehoof]

My geography of Canada sucks - does Fernie ever get hit by this Pineapple Express guy

[IHeartWhistler]

It's official! The snowphone for Whistler says they'll be opening on the 18th!! Get your planks ready!

[Parvo]

looks like our local hills got shit hammered with mother nature (who happens to tele) and this is the latest poop...
Lookout Mtn. opening this thursday
Silver Mtn. possibly opening this Sat & sun
Schweitzer possibly opening this weekend
49 & Mt Spokane ???

Just gimme silver and schweitz and i'll be a happy mo-fo!

[Bring On The Snow]

baker on thursday
whistler on saturday
ill be at both openers

[wizard604]

Looks awesome for early season. Check out it out: http://www.whistlerblackcomb.com/weather/video/index.htm