Ides of September: Beginning of the end for McCain?

[timvwcom]

Well, I shouldn't pin it on one specific day... but I see the end of last week as the end of the McCain Palin bounce. So why not pick lucky number 13?

Palin speaks and her numbers turn to the south. The press calls McCain's ads misleading or worse. McCain says the economy's fundamentals are strong as Wall Street firms fall.

And as a result... Obama is now on the upswing in the polls and looks to have passed back ahead of McCain. Has McCain peaked? Will we remember the Ides of September as his high point and the beginning of the end?

[timvwcom]

http://www.timvw.com/whooohooo/9-16-08_pollster.jpg

[Jer]

For a guy who's seemingly full of Obama bravado, it continues to confound me that you won't put your e-money on Barry. Would not being able to post her and in the Padded Room be all that bad?

[timvwcom]

For a guy who's seemingly full of Obama bravado, it continues to confound me that you won't put your e-money on Barry. Would not being able to post her and in the Padded Room be all that bad?

Jer, as I stated (I think as post #2?) in your thread... the price is too high. I don't want either you or I to leave the Padded Room or PolAss. But thanks for the kind offer again anyway. :smile:

[Jer]

Jer, as I stated (I think as post #2?) in your thread... the price is too high. I don't want either you or I to leave the Padded Room or PolAss. But thanks for the kind offer again anyway. :smile:

Truth be told, there are tons of people who's bet I wouldn't accept. For the reason you stated. Without Lex Luthor, Superman is just another fag in a leotard.

[schindlerpiste]

OK. I laughed.

[timvwcom]

Sure it's only one poll... but there is an obvious trend in the reaction to the Wall Street melt down.

http://www.timvw.com/whooohooo/wp_poll_graphic.jpg

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/09/23/AR2008092303667_pf.html

[Buster Highmen]

Truth be told, there are tons of people who's bet I wouldn't accept. For the reason you stated. Without Lex Luthor, Superman is just another fag in a leotard.

I'd accept your bet except you already promised you'd leave if Obama wins independent of any bet.

So, this is just a way of showing what kind of real innerwezb integrity you've got.

[Tye 1on]

Sorry Tim, can't follow the post without any highlighting :D

[timvwcom]

Sorry Tim, can't follow the post without any highlighting :D

I think my standard response to ANY mention of color or highlighting will become very graphic in nature... :fuckyou: :p :D

http://www.timvw.com/whooohooo/yellow_psycho_animated.gif

(Gotta make up some others I have in mind tho, or it'll get boring quick. <- Like my posts, no?)

[timvwcom]

HUDGE swings towards Obama going on in polling all across the country. 2 now show him with the lead in North Carolina! Here are current trendlines from Pollster and RealClearPolitics;

http://www.timvw.com/whooohooo/pollster_9-30.jpg

http://www.timvw.com/whooohooo/realclearpolitics_9-30.jpg


Intrade (Betting/Investment system) has swung back to Obama on top 63.7 to McCain's 35.9 as I write this. Their Electoral College predictor shows a landslide;

http://www.timvw.com/whooohooo/intrade_ec_9-30.jpg

(Reminder, this ^^ EC result is based on BETS/INVESTMENTS placed at Intrade NOT polling)

[Tuckerman]

McCain or Mcbama whats the difference?

[timvwcom]

New Quinnipiac swing state poll (http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x2882.xml?ReleaseID=1218) showing Obama with strong leads in the most important swing states. Will be very curious to see if this lead keeps growing, levels off, or... I suppose some new bombshell could send it the other way too. If someone was holding such a "bomb", I'd guess dropping it 3 or 4 days before the election would be the best timing???


Latest Quinnipiac numbers post-debate;


Florida: Obama 51 to McCain 43 = 8 point lead

Ohio: Obama 50 to McCain 42 = 8 point lead

Pennsylvania: Obama 54 to McCain 39 = 15 point lead


Some of the pollsters comments;

"It is difficult to find a modern competitive presidential race that has swung so dramatically, so quickly and so sharply this late in the campaign. In the last 20 days, Sen. Barack Obama has gone from seven points down to eight points up in Florida, while widening his leads to eight points in Ohio and 15 points in Pennsylvania," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"Sen. John McCain has his work cut out for him if he is to win the presidency and there does not appear to be a role model for such a comeback in the last half century," Brown added.

"Sen. McCain's problem is not with this or that demographic group. Although he still leads among white men, albeit by a smaller margin, his problems are across the electorate.

"Sen. Obama clearly won the debate, voters say. Their opinion of Gov. Sarah Palin has gone south and the Wall Street meltdown has been a dagger to McCain's political heart. Roughly a third of voters, and almost as large a share of the key independent vote, say McCain did more harm than good in trying to resolve the financial crisis, and the share of voters who see the economy as the top issue has risen from roughly half to six in ten."

[timvwcom]

More numbers coming in from a CNN/Time Magazine/Opinion Research polling (http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/10/01/cnn-polls-major-gain-for-obama-in-battleground-states/) showing Obama is looking good even in states that Bush won in both 2000 and 2004*;


-Florida*: Obama 51 to McCain 47 = 4 point lead

-Missouri*: Obama 54 to McCain 43 = 11 point lead

-Nevada*: Obama 51 to McCain 47 = 4 point lead

-Virginia*: Obama 53 to McCain 44 = 9 point lead

(Virginia!!! :eek: Bush won 52.5 to 44.4 in '00 and 53.6 to 45.4 in '04)

-Minnesota: Obama 54 to McCain 43 = 11 point lead


Some comments;

What's behind this shift for Obama?

"Obama has gained ground among moderates in all five states," said CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. "That may have something to do with the first presidential debate. Some commentators knocked Obama for agreeing with McCain as often as he did, but moderates tend to like it when candidates appear willing to see the other side's point of view.

"In most states, Obama also won support from senior citizens and voters making more than $75,000. Those are two groups who may have been hardest-hit by the recent problems in the stock market and the financial community. Economic jitters may not last if Congress passes legislation in the next few days, but there may have been short-term gains for Obama as a result of the current economic problems," added Holland.

[doughboyshredder]

McCain or Mcbama whats the difference?

Obama can come up with nice things to say while he is fucking us.

[timvwcom]

OK... this (http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/221546.php) was pre-debate earlier this evening, but the beer run was more important that fleshing this out at the time as the VP drinking game was high on my list for potential achievements today... I can't go crash til I move out these windows I've parked various places on my desktop;

In a conference call with reporters this afternoon that was heavy on damage control in the wake of reports that McCain is conceding Michigan to Obama, the McCain campaign acknowledged (http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/10/mccain_campaign_the_map_is_sti.php) that the six core battleground states are now Ohio, Virgina, Florida, Missouri, Indiana, and North Carolina. In other words, as Josh noted (http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/221524.php) earlier, McCain is now fighting just to hold onto the red states Bush won in 2004.

To restate this... looks like McCain has pulled back the battle lines to ONLY the states that Bush won in '04. If he loses a single one of these states he's toast... Sorry for the Republicans/Conservatives out there, but short of a sniper's bullet or hidden big personal sin of Obama's that blows-up, this is all she wrote for McCain. I predicted a 10 point cushion for Obama running up to the election back in mid February (http://www.tetongravity.com/forums/showpost.php?p=1692221&postcount=128)... and was half wrong until recently, but can't see how it changes to favor McCain anymore???

[timvwcom]

A little update as of 10/10/08...

Notice the election date line coming quickly here, and just at the cusp of the super important 50% mark on both these;

http://www.timvw.com/whooohooo/pollster_10-10_chart.jpg

http://www.timvw.com/whooohooo/rcp_10-10_chart.jpeg


The investment/betting types are thinking the fat lady is warming up;

http://www.timvw.com/whooohooo/intrade_10-10_chart.jpg


Now which of you conservodouches is ready to say it with me this time... Just like I've been saying since back in February, this is already over = "President Barack Obama".

[Benny Profane]

Don't be too sure. That race thing is pretty big

"“I think Obama’s kind of arrogant,” said Theresa Ghrist, 40, whose work schedule has been reduced at her R.V. plant. “When it comes down to it around here, people are going to vote color, and I don’t think people are ready to vote for a colored president. I don’t care myself, but at work a lot of people talk color there.”

A co-worker, Jim Podemski, agreed with her assessment, but added, “I wouldn’t want to vote Republican again.”"



Oh, those "arrogant", uppity negros.

[Jer]

I think Obama’s kind of arrogant. I don’t think people are ready to vote for a colored president. Those arrogant uppity negros.

STFU, racist asshole.

:fuckyou:

[Benny Profane]

How old are you?

[Jer]

How old are you?

39, you fucking bigot asshole.

:fuckyou:

[Benny Profane]

I suggest anger management classes followed by a blow job.

[timvwcom]

I suggest anger management classes followed by a blow job.

Anyone else think it's kinda suspicious that like just over a week ago there is a "self blow job" thread (http://www.tetongravity.com/forums/showthread.php?t=132747), then the night before last Jer says (http://www.tetongravity.com/forums/showthread.php?t=135794) he "messed up my back about a week ago..."??? Hmmm...

[Jer]

I suggest anger management classes followed by a blow job.

Yes Benny. My anger is for reelz. I actually am genuinely angry at you. I'm not just flame-baiting a humorless douche like I've done 10,000,000 times before. This time it's real.

But hey - if you're ever in WI I'm up for the blow job I suppose. As long as you put on a wig and some makeup or something.
















































































:rolleyes:

I suggest you try skiing this year. Who knows - you may like it.



And Rainbow - we've been over this. I hurt my back trying to lift a woodstove. Everybody knows it's impossible to suck your own D unless you get some ribs removed.

[Benny Profane]

Where do you live? I mean, not your address, just, a generic description.

[timvwcom]

...And Rainbow - we've been over this. I hurt my back trying to lift a woodstove. Everybody knows it's impossible to suck your own D unless you get some ribs removed.

Sometimes you seem completely humorless. :p

[iscariot]

This is not the beginning of the end. This is not the beginning. This is not the end of the beginning. This is the end of the end.

Time for McCain to get off the bus.

[Jer]

This is not the beginning of the end. This is not the beginning. This is not the end of the beginning. This is the end of the end.

Time for McCain to get off the bus.

No doubt. It would be so much easier if we just didn't have elections.

[timvwcom]

Time for an update is what it is!

As of late 10/23/2008;

This first graph from fivethirtyeight.com is interesting, for those who don't follow it; It's the results of 10,000 different simulations of the Electoral College results based on the current polls and their margins of error. The few little red bars on the left are the only hopes McCain has left... and the bars at the 380ish range for Obama have recently really spiked!

http://www.timvw.com/whooohooo/538_10-23-08_graphs.jpg


Looking like it would take an act of god to get these lines to cross again before the finish line.

http://www.timvw.com/whooohooo/pollster_10-23-08_graphs.jpg

[David Witherspoon]

For those not accustomed to looking at probability distributions:
An Obama landslide (375+ electoral votes) is now the most probable election outcome.

[ColMan]

McCain has no choice but to do something drastic to shake things up. Maybe replace Palin? CNN reported today "The new poll found that concern about Palin's qualifications is voters' top concern about McCain, ahead of every other issue in the election." Having Palin drop out (given she hasn't released her med records, they could use something along those lines or family, etc.) may be his last hope. It could piss of the base and make things worse, but what other option does he have at this point?

[timvwcom]

Well... just a few minutes over 24 hours until 12:01 AM November 4th, 2008 here in the Central time zone. Looks like this might be one of the last poll updates I'll do, so other than a recap on how it all turned out afterward, my douchiness is on the wane. "Yay" you say!!!

Still a spread of results being found in the last of the polls. On the National numbers (which don't matter anyway, the EC votes do), the range is from as little as 2 or 3 points, to as much as 13 points for Obama (http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/cellphone-effect-continued.html). Those from late today are showing some of the biggest margins for Obama of the entire race.


-The most recent, and FINAL USA Today/Gallup estimate (http://blogs.usatoday.com/onpolitics/2008/11/final-usa-today.html) has Obama at 53%, and McCain at 42%, with undecided at 4%... an 11 point spread with a margin of error (moe) of +/- 2%. The results were the same for the two main ways they calculate. When they split the remaining undecideds that they think will still vote between Obama and McCain, they have a final estimate of Obama 55%, and McCain 44%. One last item; "One more historic tidbit from the survey: Obama's favorable rating is 62% -- the highest that any presidential candidate has registered in Gallup's final pre-election polls going back to 1992."

-The new CBS poll (http://www.cbsnews.com/blogs/2008/11/02/politics/horserace/entry4564135.shtml?tag=rightRail;rightRailInner), released at 7 PM tonight (Sun 11/2)... shows Obama maintaining a 13 point lead. Obama at 54%, and McCain at 41%, the same margin as yesterday. They show 8% uncommitted... and commented that "Today’s uncommitted voters are mostly white, and more than half are age 45 or older. Just over half are men, and most live in the Midwest and South. Half describe themselves as moderate, and many are not partisan - four in 10 are independents."

Here is what the new polls do to the pollster trend lines;

http://www.timvw.com/whooohooo/pollster_11-2-2008.jpg


In other news; Bush is still hiding out and no where to be seen (http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/11/02/bush.absent/index.html?eref=rss_politics)... Reports are saying there is "real sadness" at the White House (http://thinkprogress.org/2008/11/02/there-is-a-real-sadness-there-in-the-white-house/)... Joe the plumber is questioning Barack Obamas loyalty to the US (http://thinkprogress.org/2008/11/02/joe-plumber-loyalty/)... Joe Biden is mixing it up with protesters (http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalradar/2008/11/bidens-florida.html)... Oprah almost has a heart attack when her vote is nearly scrubbed by an electronic voting machine (http://www.bradblog.com/?p=6603)... The Republican computer guru suspiciously at the scene of all the election irregularities in 2000 and 2004 is ordered to give a deposition about Ohio 2004 (http://www.bradblog.com/?p=6600) the day before the 2008 vote (wild crazy stuff)... Norm Coleman is advised the best thing would be to LOSE his re-election bid (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/11/02/colemans-best-legal-remed_n_140222.html) against Al Franken in MinneSOTA... Ted Stevens looks to be losing his law license (http://thinkprogress.org/2008/11/01/stevens-law-license/) in addition to his court case and his seat in the Senate one way (http://www.pollster.com/polls/ak/08-ak-sen-ge-svb.php) or the (http://www.redstate.com/diaries/redstate/2008/oct/27/redstate-endorses-mark-begich-democrat-for-s/) othe (http://rawstory.com/news/2008/Reid_Stevens_as_felon_will_not_1102.html)r... Liddy Doles problems in North Carolina are much larger (http://www.americablog.com/2008/11/liddy-doles-godless-americans-ad-is.html) than her husbands new big shipment of Viagra, but are "blowing up in her face" all the same... McCains GOTV effort has less enthusiasm (http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x7689910) than a funeral... and Senator Lindsay Graham (R-SC) explains that since Obama is the "virtual incumbent" he is going to lose (http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x7689910).

[DharmaBum]

Well... just a few minutes over 24 hours until 12:01 AM November 4th, 2008 here in the Central time zone. Looks like this might be one of the last poll updates I'll do, so other than a recap on how it all turned out afterward, my douchiness is on the wane. "Yay" you say!!!
.

Speaking for myself, I have enjoyed your posts and statistical banter around the election. However, I will be glad when this whole mess is over.

[Steven S. Dallas]

In other, other news, McCain is a socialist! OH NO!!!!!!!!

YNke6ad0t6g

[splat]

This fukkin snow be hittin just in time....

whew!

[timvwcom]

Thought this was interesting...

When I compare how the fivethirtyeight.com probability distribution has changed from 10/23 to this 11/4 version, I am surprised. For some reason back then I expected it would tighten up to a tall single point, but now see as a number of the state polls have shown it getting closer, it's actually gotten way LESS clear what the final results will be. The range of the most likely options has expanded tremendously.

http://www.timvw.com/whooohooo/538_10-23-08_graphs.jpg http://www.timvw.com/whooohooo/fivethirtyeight_final_dist_trend.jpg
(make window wider to see side x side)

My one month out prediction of Obama 364, McCain 174 still isn't in the top 5 most likely results based on this method, but I've moved up to #6!!! For having made it a month out, I'm still quite comfortable with it at this point. If I'm wrong, I could see Obama either losing Missouri or maybe Florida/North Carolina, or winning Indiana/North Dakota/Montana/1 EV in Nebraska or maybe Georgia/Arizona/South Dakota.

Was interesting to see Karl Rove's final prediction from yesterday; He has it the same as me except has McCain winning Missouri and North Carolina. His totals are Obama 338, McCain 200. Edit: But shows those 2 states as a "0%" difference in vote totals. :cool:

http://www.timvw.com/whooohooo/rove_ec_prediction.jpg


Edit #2: Here are some other pundit's predictions as of Sunday;

Matthew Dowd, former Bush strategist
Winner: Obama
Electoral College: Obama 338 McCain 200

George Will, conservative columnist
Winner: Obama
Electoral College: Obama 378 McCain 160

Donna Brazile, Democratic strategist
Winner: Obama
Electoral College: Obama 343

George Stephanopoulos, ABC News anchor
Winner: Obama
Electoral College: Obama 353 McCain 185

Mark Halperin, Time editor
Winner: Obama
Electoral College: Obama 349 McCain 189