Your Opinion; How will 2008 Presidential Election play out?

[timvwcom]

Instead of all the current PolAss discussions about subjects in the here-and-now, I'm curious what the politco Mags think about the future track of this election? What are the subjects that will dominate the campaigns bickering and news coverage, especially in the last month and weeks?

I'd assume the "get to know Palin" buzz will tone down in a week or two. Then what? Does the McCain campaign keep up what even the media is calling a "deceitful" ad barrage? Does it backfire? How tough does Obama get, does he get down in the mud as well? On issues, Iraq seems to still be there, but not preeminent. The economy is the worst it's been in 50 or 100 years, will this be what is being discussed in the final weeks of the campaigning? Or do we end up back at Gods, guns and gays somehow? The first debate is about 2 weeks out now, certainly new subjects will emerge then...

What say you?

[AstroPax]

I'd assume the "get to know Palin" buzz will tone down in a week or two.

You can assume all day long, but that doesn't mean that it will actually happen....but then again, it doesn't necessarily mean that it won't.

Personally, I don't make assumptions unless I have some sort of underlying reasons for doing so. What is the basis for your assumption?

If anything, the "buzz" surrounding Palin will only increase the closer we get to the debates, and the election itself. That's the way the media operates...they'll turn-up the volume as we approach the end of the game, and the grand finale itself.


Does the McCain campaign keep up what even the media is calling a "deceitful" ad barrage?

"Even the media"??? Bwaaahaaahaahaa! They have been in love with Obama since day #1. Of course they would say something like that. You make it sound as if this is some sort of new or revolutionary concept or idea for the (left dominated) media.


How tough does Obama get, does he get down in the mud as well?

Obama is already in it, has been for a long time, and just as deep as anyone else. Except in the case of Obama, it's not mud, but rather fecal matter.


On issues, Iraq seems to still be there, but not preeminent.

Not preeminent? Gee, I wonder why? Oh, maybe because of the success that is occurring over there of late? Funny thing, for the past 7 years the vast majority of the reporting was negative, but now, as things actually turn positive, poof!, where are all those reporters now??? Oh, I know, now they are attacking McCain and Palin. BTW, why won't Obama (and the media in general) admit that they were wrong about the surge?


The economy is the worst it's been in 50 or 100 years

WTF? What a bunch of BS nonsense. Evidently, you weren't around, or were not old enough to remember the late seventies (let alone the great depression).

[mrryde]

Instead of all the current PolAss discussions about subjects in the here-and-now, I'm curious what the politco Mags think about the future track of this election? What are the subjects that will dominate the campaigns bickering and news coverage, especially in the last month and weeks?

I'd assume the "get to know Palin" buzz will tone down in a week or two. Then what? Does the McCain campaign keep up what even the media is calling a "deceitful" ad barrage? Does it backfire? How tough does Obama get, does he get down in the mud as well? On issues, Iraq seems to still be there, but not preeminent. The economy is the worst it's been in 50 or 100 years, will this be what is being discussed in the final weeks of the campaigning? Or do we end up back at Gods, guns and gays somehow? The first debate is about 2 weeks out now, certainly new subjects will emerge then...

What say you?

I think the Palin buzz turns into Palin hangover as more people understand what she is really about. I predict McCain gets toasted in all 4 debates and more of the swing states turn blue. McCain's campaign tactics are getting called out by the MSM and that trend will increase.

I was in Cabarrus county, NC on saturday night at a fair. There was a McCain table and on the opposite side of the arena an Obama table.

You would think the Obama table would have been chased as out of the room, but it wasn't the case at all, there were still tons of McCain stickers on people as expected, but there were an aweful lot of people supporting Obama. And this was deep into die hard republican land if you know what I mean.

BTW, Joe Biden is in town tonight, tickets were gone in 20 minutes.

[Smokey McPole]

I say Obama wins it in a landslide when it comes out about a week before the election that he actually is, in fact, Jesus Christ.

[Smokey McPole]

WTF? What a bunch of BS nonsense. Evidently, you weren't around, or were not old enough to remember the late seventies (let alone the great depression).

Tim's old enough.

Personally, I have yet to feel the pinch of the so-called recession/great depression.

[timvwcom]

Well... I was kinda hoping you'd give some ideas looking forward rather than dissect my post. But hey, let's roll with it;


You can assume all day long, but that doesn't mean that it will actually happen....but then again, it doesn't necessarily mean that it won't.

Personally, I don't make assumptions unless I have some sort of underlying reasons for doing so. What is the basis for your assumption?

If anything, the "buzz" surrounding Palin will only increase the closer we get to the debates, and the election itself. That's the way the media operates...they'll turn-up the volume as we approach the end of the game, and the grand finale itself.

Hey, I guess I'd claim I was using common sense... but sounds like you disagree. I can respect that you have a different opinion, guess time will tell where it goes.


"Even the media"??? Bwaaahaaahaahaa! They have been in love with Obama since day #1. Of course they would say something like that. You make it sound as if this is some sort of new or revolutionary concept or idea for the (left dominated) media.

I guess I shouldn't be surprised when a Republican can't see completely fabricated and intentionally misleading points of argument in these ads and interviews, since the Bush/Cheney group has done just about nothing but that for 7.5 years. But I AM SURPRISED that you can't see the media talking about it. As evidence see this thread OP where I've listed 25 articles on this, including from Conservative/Republican media (O'Rielly has said it for heavens sake!); http://www.tetongravity.com/forums/showthread.php?t=132386...

And to absolutely positively SLAM DUNK my point here; KARL fucking ROVE just said (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/14/karl-rove-mccains-ads-hav_n_126280.html) that "McCain has gone in his ads one step too far, and sort of attributing to Obama things that are, you know, beyond the 100-percent-truth test"... Did you get that, KARL ROVE of all people is saying McCain has gone too far, you can't see the humor in that? :tongue:


Obama is already in it, has been for a long time, and just as deep as anyone else. Except in the case of Obama, it's not mud, but rather fecal matter.

Obama has had some parts of a few ads that probably tip toe over the "misleading" line too, but as I point out above... nothing near McCain.


Not preeminent? Gee, I wonder why? Oh, maybe because of the success that is occurring over there of late? Funny thing, for the past 7 years the vast majority of the reporting was negative, but now, as things actually turn positive, poof!, where are all those reporters now??? Oh, I know, now they are attacking McCain and Palin. BTW, why won't Obama (and the media in general) admit that they were wrong about the surge?

I've conceed there is less violence... we can argue over why, but that's not for this discussion. But to correct your assertion, Obama HAS ALREADY SAID (again on O'Rielly fer crikes sake) that the surge succeeded better than he expected. Though, I'd caution you count all those chickens on some kind of Iraq success claim yet, General Petraeus has just said that recent security gains were "not irreversible" and that the US still faced a "long struggle". (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/7610405.stm) And while we are discussing wars, Petraeus also said "the trends in Afghanistan have not gone in the right direction... and that has to be addressed". Comments on that?


WTF? What a bunch of BS nonsense. Evidently, you weren't around, or were not old enough to remember the late seventies (let alone the great depression).

HAHhahhAHHAhahhhAHh... If you won't take my little old word for it, how about former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan??? Do you think HE knows anything about the economy?

He said back in March 2008 that the economy is worst since WWII (http://money.cnn.com/2008/03/17/news/economy/greenspan/index.htm?postversion=2008031707). So even back in March I would have back up that economy is worst in (2008 - 1945 =) 63 years... you think it's gotten any worse since then???

Well I can add, that Greenspan has come out now and said that this is the worst economy I've ever seen (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/14/greenspan-this-is-the-wor_n_126274.html) and getting worse.


Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan offered a woeful outlook of America's economic situation on Sunday, saying the crisis with the country's financial institutions was as dire as he had ever seen in his long career, and predicting that one or more of those institutions would likely collapse in the near future.

"Oh, by far," Greenspan said, when asked if the situation was the worst he had seen in his career. "There's no question that this is in the process of outstripping anything I've seen and it still is not resolved and still has a way to go and, indeed, it will continue to be a corrosive force until the price of homes in the United States stabilizes. That will induce a series of events around the globe which will stabilize the system."

...

Edit: Found an ABC News account of Greenspans interview (http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalradar/2008/09/greenspan-to-st.html)with ABC's Stephanopoulos TODAY referenced above; guess what Greenspan sez;


Greenspan also noted, "let's recognize that this is a once-in-a-half-century, probably once-in-a-century type of event."

Remember what I said that you had the issue with?


...The economy is the worst it's been in 50 or 100 years...

Seems Greenspan thinks I was right... on this your argument = FAIL. Sorry.



Now... any comments back on topic? WHERE DO YOU SEE THIS CAMPAIGN CONTEST GOING IN THE FUTURE???

[Lizhnik]

It seems as if Alan Greenspan is referring to the crisis among financial institutions, not the economy as a whole. It's funny how he never used to talk like that when he was chairman of the Fed. But, now that he's in the private sector, with an agenda and financial interests to protect, it's all fire and brimstone. I'm not necessarily backing this view, but many feel that he is largely responsible for the mess the economy is in now by allowing easy money for too long and blowing a liquidity bubble in the real estate market.

Do you have any empirical evidence to back up your claim that the economy is the worst it's been in 50-100 years? Besides misquoting Greenspan, are there other economists who share your view? Do you think, for example, that Ben Bernanke would agree with you?

As for what transpires between now and the election, I predict not much. There will be noise, but, as you noted, it will be about god, guns and gays. The debates will be a non-event, only serving to prove to each side how weak the opposing candidate is. It's all rather depressing.

[St. Jerry]

Prediciton: McCain/Palin will win. Things will continue to get worse. People will bitch for change at the next election. Democrats will come out with a change candidate. Palin will claim she is the real candidate of change.
Palin in 2012.

[AstroPax]

misquoting Greenspan

He's doing more than just "misquoting" Greenspan. He's basing his ENTIRE "worse economy in 100 years" argument on a misunderstanding which is a result of his "selective (left-channel) listening".

[timvwcom]

Well... upon further review it does look like some of those news stories (CNN/Money & ABC News) over generalized Greenspan's comments when I compare their text with the original. Though it is unclear about exactly what Greenspan was referring to in the ABC interview today. Either way, point taken. Perhaps I should modify my original comments to state that big portions of the economy are the worst since the great depression (~75 yrs)... Happy with that? [/begrudging correction :mad: :p ]

I'd ask for comment on the 4 other (of my 5 points), BUT my hope for this thread was to get discussion on what your ideas of where this campaign contest goes for the remaining portion. So, give me some thoughts on that and get this thread back on track from my self administered distraction.

[AstroPax]

get discussion on what your ideas of where this campaign contest goes for the remaining portion.

Herein lies the problem. It's somewhat difficult to discuss these points when the premise of your original post is so severely flawed/skewed. In other words, just about every one of those questions that you raised are, shall I say, "loaded".

It puts the (anti-Obama) reader on the defensive, from the get go. But, then again, that might be part of your objective.

[Lizhnik]

big portions of the economy are the worst since the great depression (~75 yrs)... Happy with that?

Sorry, but that still doesn't work for me. It is a blanket statement completely unsubstantiated by any data, or backed up by expert argument. You complain about the McCain campaign stretching the truth, don't you think you'd best serve the interests of the Democratic party by not doing the same thing?

[AstroPax]

(CNN/Money & ABC News) over generalized

Really? Wow, what a revelation!

[AstroPax]

big portions of the economy are the worst since the great depression (~75 yrs)... Happy with that?

No, not at all.

Sluggish economy for now. It's that simple. Why do you insist on blowing this all out of proportion.

Oh, wait, never mind.

[timvwcom]

Herein lies the problem. It's somewhat difficult to discuss these points when the premise of your original post is so severely flawed/skewed. In other words, just about every one of those questions that you raised are, shall I say, "loaded".

It puts the (anti-Obama) reader on the defensive, from the get go. But, then again, that might be part of your objective.

NOT an objective... but an apparent bias I'd agree. Sorry. So, come on... where is this campaign going?


Sorry, but that still doesn't work for me. It is a blanket statement completely unsubstantiated by any data, or backed up by expert argument. You complain about the McCain campaign stretching the truth, don't you think you'd best serve the interests of the Democratic party by not doing the same thing?

I have dinner waiting for me in the other room and not going to waste bunches more time since this wasn't the goal for this thread... But would say that we already have evidence herein that the general finance portion of the markets (which extends thru the economy) could meet that criteria, certainly the housing sector would qualify in most respects (and as my field is certainly felt dearly). I'm not going try and determine exactly how large a portion these two sectors play in the economy as a whole, but don't think I'm stretching it to say "big".

And thanks for your comments in the earlier thread on where you think the contest goes! :)

[Tippster]

I think the debates will be very decisive, and the VP debate will actually mean something this time, simply because they will hide Palin until then. If she has a good showing and doesn't come across as uninformed, and Biden doesn't come across as a big meany, then the Republican base will decide that she's reason enough to vote for someone they've disliked for a decade and pulled through the meat grinder in 2000.

If she ends up looking ill-infomed and pissy I think the good-ole boys will sit this one out and Obama wins despite the current polls.

There is very little McCain can do to help his ticket from now on -- he's not a good public speaker and will likely not fare well against a trained orator in the debates. That said Obama needs to stop parsing himself while he answers - he needs to do what Clinton did: order his thoughts first (the "Clinton Moment") and then answer succinctly, without the umms and ahs.

[enlosandes]

I predict a national crisis, ie Iran, will take center stage and Americans will once again vote out of fear to keep the US safe. That means McSame and Vilf.

[Crud's Uncle]

McCain Campaign--In October you will see ads highlighting Obama's questionable background. The 527 groups will hit the Rev. Wright, Rezko, Ayers and other ethics/leftist slams. McCain will focus on Obama's experience and his plan for the future.

Obama Campaign-- Obama will a campaign will focus on tying McCain to Bush. He will paint the story that Iraq was a failure and the economy is in shambles. The 527 groups will slam Palin, question McCain's health among other slams.

I think McCain chances to win are 75%.

If Obama sticks to the issues and is not perceived as unfair he increase his chances to win. He needs to win back the independant and woman voters from Palin. It is tricky, because if he or the press is perceived as unfair it will solidify her support.

Elections are won by relatively small margins. The republicans will vote for McCain and the Democrats will vote for Obama. Since every Democrat wins 90+ percent of the black vote, Obama support in the black community is meaningless to the vote total. Any democrat would have those votes. His problem is he definitely will lose a couple percent of old time democrats that will not vote for a black guy with Obamas past.

McCain has the advantage that the votes being fought over tend to be middle of the road politically. McCain has a track record of being in the middle of road. He partnered with democrats on many issues to the chagrin of the conservative base. He needs to communicate that record over the next two months. If he does, the election calculus definitely favors him.

[AstroPax]

That said Obama needs to stop parsing himself while he answers - he needs to do what Clinton did: order his thoughts first (the "Clinton Moment") and then answer succinctly, without the umms and ahs.

The problem with Obama is that he is a lawyer, and lawyers are trained to ramble on and on.

He takes way too long to make a point. Obama needs to learn how to STFU, stop beating around the bush (no pun intended), and get to the point.

[Rasputin]

The polls will continue to level out until the debates, Obama will utterly crush McCain, both by showing poise where McCain loses his temper, and by revealing McCain's lack of grasp of the issues other than foreign policy, revealing him as the dottering, angry, out of touch old man that he is.

In the VP debates, Biden will dominate Palin to the extent that her facade crumbles and instinctively releases a personally directed bombast which reveals the evil witch beneath; her meltdown becomes the most popular video ever on youtube, and she loses about half her support among the women who just wanted to vote for a woman, because they are now reminded of a vindictive head cheerleader who was cruel to them in highschool.

Bush attempts to help McCain by starting a war with Pakistan and bombs Iran at the beginning of November, but somehow enough moderate Republicans see through the fear to realize that Obama will prevent WWIII from developing out of it, and the fear of a reinstitution of the draft drives youth to the polls in record numbers.

Obama wins in a nail biter, by about three percentage points, with late support from Nevada, Idaho and Montana.

[JohnTucker]

Are you guys sure the Obama is not a terrorist who has successfully infultrated the US, and has pulled the wool over everyone's eyes for decades. C'mon. Muslim. Religious extremist church and pastor. Growing up outside the continental US. Unknown until just a few short years ago. Can't you see this guy winning the election, and then turning on us? It's like a bad espionage movie.

[TruckeeLocal]

I think the country is in fine shape. The politicos have to generate the right kind of fear to turn the vote their way. Hence the Republicans create an external threat and demonstrate a capability (or in the the case of Palin the naivite) and willingness to tackle it. While the Dems create an internal fear and hence the need for change. Voters prefer the external threat scenario and aren't necessarily comfortable with change (because things aren't that bad for most actually). Hence nothing changes and the Dems will lose again.

[Adolf Allerbush]

Are you guys sure the Obama is not a terrorist who has successfully infultrated the US, and has pulled the wool over everyone's eyes for decades. C'mon. Muslim. Religious extremist church and pastor. Growing up outside the continental US. Unknown until just a few short years ago. Can't you see this guy winning the election, and then turning on us? It's like a bad espionage movie.

This election...people like JohnTucker will assassinate Obama before the election....HRC will have to pick up where Obama left off. Meanwhile McCain suffers a stroke a week before the election but does not die. The good ole boy republican base opt out of the election process because the thought of president Palin is scarrier than even a dummicrat in office...HRC wins in a landslide.

but seriously, I think energy issues will take center stage. Who ever can be more effective at getting their message out on how to fix the US energy issues will win...I predict Obama wins the electoral college but loses the popular vote...republicans heads explode...

[Mathematics]

Israel, realizing neither a McCain or Obama administration will provide anywhere near as much support as the current Bush administration, decides to attack Iran while Bush is still in office for a couple months. WWIII ensues. Terror threat level goes to super-ultra-neon-red, white man fears Hadji, Obama's assassinated & McCain wins.

[TruckeeLocal]

Terror threat level goes to super-ultra-neon-red, white man fears Hadji, Obama's assassinated & McCain wins.
White man will be informed by even the most inept reporter that the hadj is a pilgrimage to Mecca. Some might actually do some investigative reporting and find that Mecca is in Saudi Arabia and that it is the pilgrims who should be fearfull. But that all requires education beyond the scope of this board.

[Tippster]

Behold the visage of your impending DOOM!

http://i15.photobucket.com/albums/a381/rrrob/hadji.gif

[gorms]

Behold the visage of your impending DOOM!

http://i15.photobucket.com/albums/a381/rrrob/hadji.gif

Heh.....if that is our impending doom then I have no worries
I think this guy is tougher and i used to take him down all the time
http://www.nerdzapper.com/wp-content/uploads/2007/07/great-tiger.png

[David Witherspoon]

White man will be informed by even the most inept reporter that the hadj is a pilgrimage to Mecca.
Marine who's done time in Iraq will inform that "Hadji" is this war's equivalent of "gook."

[TruckeeLocal]

Marine who's done time in Iraq will inform that "Hadji" is this war's equivalent of "gook."
Individual who has lived in Qatar would say "Hadji" is the equivalent of "been to The Vatican".

[David Witherspoon]

Individual who has travelled extensively internationally ... well, who claim to have seened Russia 'cross the Bering Strait ... will point out that Hadji from Qatar get head blown off if not deference with Grate 'Merican Moose Hunter.

[TruckeeLocal]

Individual who has travelled extensively internationally ... well, who claim to have seened Russia 'cross the Bering Strait ... will point out that Hadji from Qatar get head blown off if not deference with Grate 'Merican Moose Hunter.
And therein lies the problem - anyone who's different should be marginalized by assigning a nickname based on ignorance by guys with guns. Goes for international relations too. Only the Brits, and arguably the Ausies, are our brothers. There are some internal folks who have questionable provenance too.

[RaccoonFace]

McCain is totally going to win. Not because he is better but because America is more than 51% stupid dipshits. I was just speaking with a group about the election and the candidates. I turned and left when they started discussing the possibility of a Muslim being elected President. These were "educated" people with technical degrees and two of them had masters. Vote how ever you want, it's a free country, but if you are voting like a complete fuck wad that I can't handle. I love this country, but it is doomed because most of the people in it are unbelievably ignorant.

okbye

[uglymoney]

http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/graphs/Pres08_WTA.png

I've been on a tropical island for a while and haven't picked up a paper or turned on a TV for over two weeks. I'm totally in the dark about which way this Palin-McCain thing is going. I hate her but friends tell me they like her since she shoots moose or elk or whatever :rolleyes: Trying to get myself up to date on the market happenings and the big government, big money bailout by our 'conservative' anti regulation president. Ha! Its all a big joke and it's being played on the backs of all of us (mercans). Bunch of dumbshits, all of us.

Above is the winner take all U of Iowa real money market.

http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/quotes/Pres08_Quotes.html

[David Witherspoon]

So Americans can wager a bit on the election. I thought it was entirely off limits to us.

[corn dog]

I have realized that Palin is a great VP choice, she can teach us all survival skills, killing and eating moose, that we'll need when the modern specialization/gains from trade economy breaks down.

I have been trying to figure out what the Republifucks are are up to these days. They've given us a senile cancer ridden old man and a some redneck from backwoods AK as the Pres/VP candidates, and are serving up a hell of a financial cock up, high oil prices, hurricanes etc leading up to the election. Either they've picked the carcass over and its time to give it back to the Dems for a bit so it can recover for 8 years or so before the next round of rape and pillage, or something really wild is in store. Like McCain dying a few days before the election and the election getting "postponed".

[ak_powder_monkey]

Palin will drop McCain from the ticket for making too many gaffes, she will win, bush will pardon her in "troopergate" on January 19, our country will go even further to shit and I will move to canada to hide my shame of being Alaskan. Meanwhile russia will have nuked wasilla in retaliation.

[TruckeeLocal]

Palin will drop McCain from the ticket for making too many gaffes, she will win, bush will pardon her in "troopergate" on January 19, our country will go even further to shit and I will move to canada to hide my shame of being Alaskan. Meanwhile russia will have nuked wasilla in retaliation.

Has anyone warned the Canadians that their property market might spike ? My wife has a similar approach to run away, and we can pay California level prices :eek:

[Trackhead]

Well... upon further review it does look like some of those news stories (CNN/Money & ABC News) over generalized Greenspan's comments when I compare their text with the original. Though it is unclear about exactly what Greenspan was referring to in the ABC interview today. Either way, point taken. Perhaps I should modify my original comments to state that big portions of the economy are the worst since the great depression (~75 yrs)... Happy with that? [/begrudging correction :mad: :p ]

I'd ask for comment on the 4 other (of my 5 points), BUT my hope for this thread was to get discussion on what your ideas of where this campaign contest goes for the remaining portion. So, give me some thoughts on that and get this thread back on track from my self administered distraction.


Stop using all colors of the rainbow you! What are you, an ass slapping fag?

[Cono Este]

2008 US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION WINNER (1-Pay) $100 WIN

Series Name Sell Buy
DEMOCRAT 57 62 -163
REPUBLICAN 38 43 +132
OTHER 0 3 +3233


-wsex

[Jer]

I will move to canada to hide my shame of being Alaskan.


Has anyone warned the Canadians that their property market might spike ? My wife has a similar approach to run away, and we can pay California level prices :eek:

Don't tons of Librodouches make the same psomise every 4 years? Sorry to hear you fags are so ashamed of your country. Don't let the gate hit your asses on the way out. You won't be missed.

[tarkman1]

It's not the country that is the impetus for some people to take an extended vacations as much as it is the perceived blindness of the masses to what is best for the country.

We'll see how the economic matters play out to the heartland farmer who needs to upgrade his equipment but can't get a loan. We seem to be on a see-saw on everything in the US as of late. I feel like we have some more waves to ride before the first Tuesday in November. I don't know which way the coin will drop.

[Tuckerman]

Mcbama wins the economy gets worser. Too ez.

[schindlerpiste]

McCain loses the election.
McCain's fatal error occurred during a recent interview on 60 Minutes. Just after being admitting that he had only met S.P. 2X prior to the selection, he was asked whether he could see her as POTUS. His [paraphrased] response was; "Absolutely...Absolutely. In fact, sometimes I wonder whether we should switch places."

What a lost person.
If the electon wes held today, I would vote for neither of the major party candidates.

[timvwcom]

Imagine a pre-November 4th wedding for Bristol and Levi (http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/us_elections/article4837644.ece)?

[splat]

Are you guys sure the Obama is not a terrorist who has successfully infultrated the US, and has pulled the wool over everyone's eyes for decades. C'mon. Muslim. Religious extremist church and pastor. Growing up outside the continental US. Unknown until just a few short years ago. Can't you see this guy winning the election, and then turning on us? It's like a bad espionage movie.

Is that why he offers free prayer rugs on the campaign trail?
I don't think his being a part of the Saudi royal family should be an issue.


posted this somewhere else...

...Palin gets assassinated, Rove steps in, and they get the sympathy vote, but lose it after the evangelists slay every non-Republican voter in 12 states, martial law is declared, Putin fires a nuke in Somalia and...Dubya declares himself king.

[timvwcom]

Hmmm... Just saw this in my daily news reading. Sounds like this is probably mainly regards IL Gov Blagojevich? Do wonder if there could be incentive for Rezko to minimize, or alternately overplay any Obama contacts he's had regards the length of his sentence??? But either way, having this in the news again a week before the election would seem to be a gift to Republicans.


Prosecutors move to delay Rezko sentencing (http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081007/ap_on_re_us/fundraiser_trial)

By MIKE ROBINSON, Associated Press Writer Mon Oct 6, 9:16 PM ET

CHICAGO - Federal prosecutors moved Monday to delay indefinitely the sentencing of convicted fundraiser Antoin "Tony" Rezko, sending their strongest hint yet that he is ready to spill his political secrets.

The filing asks for a postponement while prosecutors and defense attorneys "engage in discussions that could affect their sentencing postures."

Speculation has simmered for weeks that the key fundraiser for Gov. Rod Blagojevich and Sen. Barack Obama was whispering what he knows about corruption in Illinois government to federal prosecutors in hopes of getting a lighter sentence.

Rezko raised more than $1 million for Blagojevich's campaign fund and was one of the governor's key advisers. He was frequently by the governor's side in the early days of his administration and could be in a position to shed considerable light on federal investigations into patronage hiring and a host of other issues involving Blagojevich.

The governor has not been charged with wrongdoing. A spokesman did not immediately respond to an e-mail message after business hours seeking comment.

U.S. District Judge Amy J. St. Eve had set Sept. 3 as a firm date for sentencing Rezko on his conviction for launching a $7 million scheme to use his clout with the Blagojevich administration to squeeze kickbacks out of a contractor and seven money management firms wanting to do business with the state. Then she postponed the sentencing date to Oct. 28.

Federal prosecutors filed a three-paragraph brief late Monday asking for that date to be stricken and the sentencing postponed indefinitely. The wording left little doubt that Rezko offered enough to make the government consider some sort of sentencing break.

Federal spokesman Randall Samborn declined to comment on the latest development. Defense attorneys Joseph Duffy and William Ziegelmueller did not immediately respond to office voicemails left late Monday.

Two attorneys familiar with the investigation, speaking only on condition of anonymity because grand jury matters are secret, said last week that federal prosecutors were contacting the lawyers of a number of campaign contributors and others with information that only Rezko could have given them. One of the lawyers said it was plain the prosecutors were laying the groundwork for questioning Rezko further.

One of the matters that prosecutors have been interested in learning is who paid for the renovation of Blagojevich's Chicago home. Rezko's now defunct Chicago Construction Services was the contractor on the project. One person familiar with the renovation contacted Monday afternoon, speaking only on condition of anonymity because of grand jury secrecy, said he was subpoenaed by federal prosecutors and asked about the project.

"They were looking for basic business dealings, who paid, how much, that sort of thing," he said. He said the governor's wife, Patti, paid the bill.

At Rezko's trial in May, former state employee Ali Ata, who got his job as head of the Illinois Finance Authority from Blagojevich through Rezko, testified as the government's surprise witness that he had to provide $25,000 to Rezko to pay contractors who were threatening to put a lien on the house if the bill was not paid. Ata earlier pleaded guilty to tax fraud and lying to the FBI about how Rezko got him his job.

Besides bankrolling a large portion of Blagojevich's campaign, Rezko raised substantial funds for Obama's past campaigns in Illinois — although none for his current presidential run.

Obama's campaign says it has sent to charity $159,000 traceable to Rezko's past fundraising.

While Blagojevich was frequently mentioned at Rezko's trial, the testimony rarely touched on Obama, who has been accused of no wrongdoing.

Unmentioned at the trial was a purchase by Rezko's wife, Rita, of property adjacent to the Obama home near the University of Chicago on the city's South Side. Obama and his wife, Michelle, purchased their home the same day that Rezko's wife closed on her property. And she later sold some of her property to the Obamas to enlarge their lot. Obama later said that allowing Rezko to do what appeared to be a favor was a "bonehead" move.

...

[David Witherspoon]

Looks like Obama/Biden could really win in a landslide - 538 pegs the chance at 33% (and the plain win probability at ~90%!)

Probably too early to tell if Palin's mud strategy is gonna work or not, but it ain't lookin' good: Obama's sharp upswing is continuing. I figured it would level off sooner - it's gotta use up the true undecided vote eventually, and then it'll run into the already-committed voter bloc.

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_5ieXw28ZUpg/SOugKMptb_I/AAAAAAAAAO8/tbp3WGPn6FE/S1600-R/1007_trend.png

Tonight's debate isn't a debate (http://blogs.suntimes.com/sweet/2008/10/mccain_obama_deal_puts_limits.html) - nor even a "town hall" meeting - it's a side-by-side press conference. The questions will selected by the moderators from those submitted by the "public" - which means they'll be perfectly predictable, and the candidates will have stock answers ready to go & smooth segues into whatever they want to speechify about.

So it's very unlikely to change anything. Best odds for drama: McCain blows his temper.

[timvwcom]

Here's MY electoral map prediction one month out. I've hardly made any radical moves with this, basically just calling it a moderately good push for Obama into the final lap. I just can't figure out Indiana though, so will leave it lean McCain?

http://www.timvw.com/whooohooo/tims_10-7_ec_map.jpg

[timvwcom]

OK... First off, I am not YET changing my predictions from above.

BUT I am seeing/feeling that this momentum for Obama may still have some upward space to move. If it does, it will move some more states from the McCain column to Obama's. A lot of this will depend on whether the Republicans find a surprise to pull out of a hat, but I'm thinking they'd have dropped that bomb by now if they had it? Too many opinions are being made and set, and because of early voting actually cast, in favor of Obama. Also, if/as the Republicans get progressively nastier, I think it will actually push their own negatives lower with the independent voters and actually help Obama.

So... if the BIG MO keeps up, based on all I am reading and seeing online with both traditional media and the blogs, and from the polls and poll amalgamation sites, I think these are the other states that could possibly go Democratic for President this year. Rated from very possible to long shot;


1) Indiana: 11 ev. I have this as my only unsure pick above... but called it for McCain at the one month out point. If this push continues this will likely fall.

2) North Dakota: 3 ev. Still a ton of undecided's here... if things break for Obama hard, a larger percent of a larger pool remaining = a bigger difference and could push him over the top.

3) Montana: 3 ev. Getting much tougher for Obama, but not impossible here. Only a few percentage points to play with... wouldn't be a blow out for Obama or anything if he did pull it off.

4) Georgia: 15 ev. This would be very hard and a squeeker even if it all goes Obamas way, but not completely impossible.

5) West Virginia: 5 ev. Lastly and honestly not really likely to go to Obama no matter what, but may be within a couple points or less for McCain. A lot of Hillary voters here is the rationale for saying it could be closer than some think.

So... Since I already called Obama for 364 Electoral Votes up ^^^ there, any adjusted upward totals would be:

With above + Indiana = 375
With above + Indiana & North Dakota = 378
With above + Indiana & North Dakota & Montana = 381
With above + Indiana & North Dakota & Montana & Georgia = 396

So, a great push to the finish for Obama would put him in the 380 plus/minus 2 range...



Well enough of my bloviating... So far no other predictions? So far I've seen numbers from David Witherspoon (though he is maybe just quoting the pollsters here (http://www.tetongravity.com/forums/showpost.php?p=2042615&postcount=6)?) and AstroPax (likely in jest here (http://www.tetongravity.com/forums/showpost.php?p=2053693&postcount=33)) Am I missing anyone else? Or anyone else willing to make a prediction? (not holding my breath)

[lemon boy]

I predict that in at least 35 states, Obama does numbers that are >2% better than the last set of state polling (pre election) in each of those states.

Which is to say GOTV + Cells + Other - Voter Suppression = a better than 2% bump most places.

[timvwcom]

I predict that in at least 35 states, Obama does numbers that are >2% better than the last set of state polling (pre election) in each of those states.

Which is to say GOTV + Cells + Other - Voter Suppression = a better than 2% bump most places.

BOLD prediction! >2%+ for 35 states, even my balls aren't that big! :eek:

[lemon boy]

Dude, I'm being conservative-ish. I didn't want to get carried away.

I think GOTV will alone account for all of the 2%, the rest is just padding.

And that padding just happens to include a heaping helping dose of stuff like the youth vote (massive and includes cell voters) and what I anticipate will be a pretty amazing showing by the AA community. Just look at Gallup's 3 models and even that doesn't reflect reality but there's your 2 points and then some.

And, I also left a 15 state buffer.

But whatever, it's a big predic cause I think it's gonna be well outside the current modeling paradigm and only a bit of that relates to Obama's actual campaign.

[David Witherspoon]

So far no other predictions? So far I've seen numbers from David Witherspoon (though he is maybe just quoting the pollsters here (http://www.tetongravity.com/forums/showpost.php?p=2042615&postcount=6)?)
I'm not a gambler (well, I don't gamble more than I have to); just a quoter. I have too much faith in stochasticity - that's why I don't plan to retire. It might happen, but I can't plan on it (I ran the numbers some years ago & was forced to conclude that not-unreasonable levels of market fluctuation precluded having high confidence in any standard "earn & invest" strategy ... didn't expect to be proved right so soon ... but I'm glad I'd already buried that fantasy. Having to watch it die now would've been stressful.)

I do put some stock in Silver's modeling - best I've seen - but I don't believe any probability value above 95% is meaningfully different from 95% (as a measure of reality; as a model output, sure). At that level, all the improbable but possible events that are not in any model begin to matter more than the remnant effects the model does account for. (Technically - I'm certain the real probability distribution has fat tails, which are not approximated by any method, and I refuse to extrapolate so far beyond the data.)

[timvwcom]

I'm not a gambler (well, I don't gamble more than I have to); just a quoter. I have too much faith in stochasticity - that's why I don't plan to retire. It might happen, but I can't plan on it (I ran the numbers some years ago & was forced to conclude that not-unreasonable levels of market fluctuation precluded having high confidence in any standard "earn & invest" strategy ... didn't expect to be proved right so soon ... but I'm glad I'd already buried that fantasy. Having to watch it die now would've been stressful.)

I do put some stock in Silver's modeling - best I've seen - but I don't believe any probability value above 95% is meaningfully different from 95% (as a measure of reality; as a model output, sure). At that level, all the improbable but possible events that are not in any model begin to matter more than the remnant effects the model does account for. (Technically - I'm certain the real probability distribution has fat tails, which are not approximated by any method, and I refuse to extrapolate so far beyond the data.)

Since I think there is a good chance you are really a secret government agent, and therefore quite certain when you can't give a outright answer, you hide communications in riddles and codes in your posts. I've worked to deduce your actual message in this post. I'm thinking the "silver" and "fat tails" tie in with the "improbable but possible events"... So when I overlay the history of human silver work societies with the worlds populations of fat tail sheep... I arrive at the answer to the riddle. >>>

http://www.sheep101.info/Images/fattailedsheepAfgn.jpg

Afghanistan!!! You must be aware that because of an upcoming attack, based from Afghanistan, the election and the EC numbers will change dramatically? Am I close???

The other thought I had, was it takes both brains and balls to post up a number that can/will be picked apart later. Obviously you are missing one of these two. :fm:

[timvwcom]

See a couple states I have for Obama still not locked up, and a few others showing some possible weakness for McCain at the last minute.

Florida is not making it easy for me to be confident about an Obama win there... though I think he will. One site I watch has his numbers stuck at 47.7, enough below the 50% mark to leave a possible opening. Based on the 70+ year old people I know, there is still a lot of identity by heritage... wonder what will happen in the privacy of the polling booths there?

Missouri, which I've had solidly in the Obama camp is looking real tight in the polls!!! Not thinking it will go to McCain, but certainly surprised it is now looking so close.

North Dakota, which I called for McCain, but saw as a possible convert to Obama because of an unusually large undecided group (back when ALL the polls and pollsters were all favoring McCain) has actually tighten way up too. And one recent poll giving Obama a 3 point lead. This one could flip to Obama if lemon boy is right about the several methods of under polling Obama voters.

Think South Dakota will finish for McCain, but be closer than many people expected. (a couple/few points-ish)

Know that Obama has started advertising in McCain's home state of Arizona after recent polls showed him within a handful percent. If this fell, it would be the exclamation mark for Obamas win.



The national poll averagers/trackers/amalgamators are showing Obama strengthening some again, but individual polls still show a little wiggling consistent with their margin of errors. I think this national lead could grow a point or a little more over the next couple days.

Either way, pretty much every electoral college estimator has him solid in states totalling around 300 or more (270 needed to win), so without even counting the toss-up states, this is a wrap. Cue credits...

Anyone have other thoughts or predictions? Running out of time to make them.

[Jer]

http://i.xanga.com/h2g2_zaphod/zaphod_pix.gif

[timvwcom]

http://i.xanga.com/h2g2_zaphod/zaphod_pix.gif

http://egoborone.free.fr/wp-content/zaphod_frei_200_247.jpg

Jer, when finding ways of describing your life, I find the phrase 'pigs ear' comes to mind...

[David Witherspoon]

Afghanistan!!! You must be aware that because of an upcoming attack, based from Afghanistan, the election and the EC numbers will change dramatically? Am I close???Sorry. We bungled it. Not gonna happen in time, and hopefully no-one will ever hear about it at all.


The other thought I had, was it takes both brains and balls to post up a number that can/will be picked apart later. Obviously you are missing one of these two. :fm:
As you are well aware, any single outcome of an experiment with so many possible outcomes has a negligibly small probability of happening. Thus, wagering on a single outcome is neither bold nor intelligent: it's an almost certain loss. Certainly not the sort of thing one should stake anything of personal value on - whether reputation or cash.

However, it's perfect for gambling other people's money on. So I'll put you in touch with our Wall Street geopolitical hedging office. They will be glad to put your balls on the block.

[timvwcom]

I predict that in at least 35 states, Obama does numbers that are >2% better than the last set of state polling (pre election) in each of those states.

Which is to say GOTV + Cells + Other - Voter Suppression = a better than 2% bump most places.

Thought this was interesting and relevant to lemon boy's post here... The pollster from fivethirtyeight.com Nate Silver put together a little graphic to show poll spreads and indicate which ones are making some adjustment for the "cellphone effect."


The Cellphone Effect (http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/cellphone-effect-continued.html)

Sunday, November 2, 2008

These are Barack Obama's leads in the likely voter models presently included in the Real Clear Politics average, plus the Research 2000 poll which they arbitrarily exclude.

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3293/2997623936_2d66d647c4_o.png

The polls in the Cingular-y orange color include cellphones in their samples; the polls in gray do not. The cellphone polls have Obama ahead by an average of 9.4 points; the landline-only polls, 5.1 points.

I did a radio hit the other afternoon with Mark DeCamillo of California's vaunted Field Poll, which does include cellphones in their samples. He suggested to me that it was much easier to get the cooperation of cellphone users on the weekend than during the week. How come? Because most cellphone plans include free weekend minutes. Conversely, one might expect that young people are particularly difficult to reach on their landlines over the weekend, since they tend to be away from home more (especially on a weekend when some nontrivial number of them are out volunteering for Obama). So, while I haven't tried to verify this, it wouldn't surprise me if the "cellphone gap" expands over the weekend, and contracts during the week.

[lemon boy]

^ayup^ and those are just the national trackers. Who the fuck knows what the state pollsters are up to w/r/t cells. All mine needs is for a little better than half of the latest polls to exclude/poorly target them and voila.

[timvwcom]

Karl Rove told Fox News his prediction this morning (video at link);


Rove electoral prediction favors Obama win (http://rawstory.com/news/2008/Rove_electoral_prediction_favors_Obama_win_1103.ht ml)

David Edwards and Nick Juliano
Published: Monday November 3, 2008

John McCain's Election Day prospects are so bad that even Karl Rove doesn't see much chance that he wins.

Rove appeared on Fox News Monday morning to share his pre-Election Day predictions. His state-by-state model showed Barack Obama taking at least 310 electoral college votes on Tuesday, far more than he needs for victory.

"If McCain hopes to win, he has to win all of the [toss-up] states ... then that's not enough," Rove said. "He has to do some takeaway, and the two biggest takeaways are Ohio and Virginia and if he does that he wins the election."

Obama currently leads in polls in both those states.

Confronted with the stark news that his favored candidate has virtually no chance to win, Fox & Friends host Steve Doocy pulled the morning anchor equivalent of sticking his fingers in his ears and singing, "la-la-la-la I can't hear you."

Ever the reliable conservative hack, Doocy turns the conversation to the latest entirely false GOP attack against Obama -- that his support for clean coal technology and a cap & trade program to moderate carbon emissions is aimed at "bankrupting" the industry. McCain supports virtually the same approach to moderating pollution from coal-fired power plans.

Doocy noted that two key swing states, Ohio and Virginia, have substantial coal industries, apparently hoping against hope that the attack being pushed by the McCain campaign and Republican National Committee with an assist from Fox, the Drudge Report and right-wing blogs would some how catch on in the last 24 hours before voters head to the polls.

[BigDaddy]

So this is where Tim has gone... My prediction... It will be over by 8pm EST.

[advres]

My prediction:

Barack Obama will win and there will be much rejoicing all over the world. I also see this forum turning into a big "I told you so" festival.

betcha guys didn't see that one coming, did ya?

[uglymoney]

My prediction:

Barack Obama will win and there will be much rejoicing all over the world. I also see this forum turning into a big "I told you so" festival.

betcha guys didn't see that one coming, did ya?

I think that festival is about over.

http://i116.photobucket.com/albums/o37/uglymoney1/n31407912_32663562_8826.jpg

Wednesday I plan to operate a nailgun with a hangover.

[BigDaddy]

Wednesday I plan to operate a nailgun with a hangover.

I'm planning to be hungover, but not dead. Tuesday night, we're having a "Champagne or Cyanide" party... drinks depend on the outcome.

[uglymoney]

I'm planning to be hungover, but not dead. Tuesday night, we're having a "Champagne or Cyanide" party... drinks depend on the outcome.

I'm being literal here. I've got a bunch of trim work to do and have the day off. We are planning a crockpot of chili, chips and dips, and cold drinks for Tuesday night. I love election nights - win or lose.

[BigDaddy]

I'm being literal here. I've got a bunch of trim work to do and have the day off. We are planning a crockpot of chili, chips and dips, and cold drinks for Tuesday night. I love election nights - win or lose.

I know... I was referring to the fact that I plan on Obama winning, so I won't have to drink the cyanide...

[lemon boy]

Aiigght, so to go back to my earlier prediction, to wit: Obama will win 35 or more states by 2% or better than the last polls to come out.

Turns out that wasn’t that far off although I did indeed miss.

Against two measures:

Nov. 04 electoral-vote.com csv table, Obama averaged (as in the total over per state) 2.2% better.
Total state count, 2% or better? 32

Against the Nov. 05 fivethirtyeight.com "Polling Average", Obama averaged 2.4% better.
Total state count, 2% or better? 31

Notes, all inputted data as rounded whole numbers. The "average better" is the difference (final-polling) column summed and divided by 51.

[NlytendOne]

http://www.tetongravity.com/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=49030&stc=1&d=1225903054
Courtesy of BSNYC

[Dexter Rutecki]

McCain Campaign--In October you will see ads highlighting Obama's questionable background. The 527 groups will hit the Rev. Wright, Rezko, Ayers and other ethics/leftist slams. McCain will focus on Obama's experience and his plan for the future.

Obama Campaign-- Obama will a campaign will focus on tying McCain to Bush. He will paint the story that Iraq was a failure and the economy is in shambles. The 527 groups will slam Palin, question McCain's health among other slams.

I think McCain chances to win are 75%.

If Obama sticks to the issues and is not perceived as unfair he increase his chances to win. He needs to win back the independant and woman voters from Palin. It is tricky, because if he or the press is perceived as unfair it will solidify her support.

Elections are won by relatively small margins. The republicans will vote for McCain and the Democrats will vote for Obama. Since every Democrat wins 90+ percent of the black vote, Obama support in the black community is meaningless to the vote total. Any democrat would have those votes. His problem is he definitely will lose a couple percent of old time democrats that will not vote for a black guy with Obamas past.

McCain has the advantage that the votes being fought over tend to be middle of the road politically. McCain has a track record of being in the middle of road. He partnered with democrats on many issues to the chagrin of the conservative base. He needs to communicate that record over the next two months. If he does, the election calculus definitely favors him.

IPPS.......

[advres]

My prediction:

Barack Obama will win and there will be much rejoicing all over the world. I also see this forum turning into a big "I told you so" festival.

HAHA, I was right!