US Presidential candidates and experience

[tarkman1]

Is the experience card being overplayed in evaluating candidates? Is it more the qualities of the individual rather than what they have done in the past?

Abraham Lincoln? Four terms in the Illinois state legislature. One term as a congressman. Failed Senate attempt. He turned out to a helluva President.

I'm thinking Obama is going to hold some cards for later in the campaign. I wouldn't be surprised to see if he pull something like Lincoln did with Seward by seeing if Hilary Clinton would fill a high-level Cabinet position. Secretary of State?

[Smokey McPole]

Abraham Lincoln? Four terms in the Illinois state legislature. One term as a congressman. Failed Senate attempt. He turned out to be a helluva President.


Actually, Lincoln had GWB-like approval ratings at the time of his death. He didn't actually become a helluva president until later.

[P_McPoser]

Actually, Lincoln had GWB-like approval ratings at the time of his death. He didn't actually become a helluva president until later.

Facts are over rated. History? Who cares.

[tarkman1]

So Jer. GWB is going to be the equivalent of one of those bands who weren't appreciated in their time, but gained more respect later. I doubt it.

I hope this thread lasts for twenty or fifty years. I said it in 2004 and I'll say it again. It's my assessment that history will assess GWB to be one of the worst presidents in US history, certainly in a century timeframe.

and what did that comment in general have to do with previous experience being vital to being President?

[P_McPoser]

I don't think that was Jer's point. GWB will not ever be celbrated.

[hutash]

Politics, like anything else needs to be learned. There is a learning curve just like in anything else. There are various ways of learning to play the game of politics, but learn it you must, or you will be ineffective. Like it or not, politics is the art of compromise, and it is a subtle art. There is a reason long time incumbents get their way, because they have learned how to play. It is good to have some new fresh ideas come to Washington, but if a person doesn't know how to work within the system, those ideas will never be heard.

Obama spent his time at Harvard law school and in Chicago, both good training grounds for the game of politics. Palin spent her's in Idaho and Alaska, both are pretty insignificant states on the national scale of things.

side note...I don't think Lincoln was that great of a president, a more diplomatic prez may have been able to avoid the whole civil war thing. 100 years from now people will still be wonder "WTF were they think" when it comes to GWB

[Stymie]

side note...I don't think Lincoln was that great of a president, a more diplomatic prez may have been able to avoid the whole civil war thing.

Huh???

Wow.

[bklyn]

Who has the chops to stand up to the hard line party bosses once they are in office? Who will be able to consult their own compass when the people who have the ear of the president are spewing advice and influencing policy decisions?

McCain & Obama do. No matter what you think of these two, they have no problem taking on the party bigwigs.

But let's be honest, both of these guys have a higher than average chance of ending up dead in office. Biden can pick up the mantle and get bipartisan support. Palin? Big question mark. I'm sure if she takes office a swarm of 'helpers' will be coming out of the woodwork, and these helpers won't have the best interests of the people in mind. How is she already under investigation, she's been in office less than 2 years?

I really wish McCain had made a different choice. So many very qualified women available if that's what he was looking to do.

[Theodore]

I don't think that was Jer's point. GWB will not ever be celbrated.

Hahaha

I have a friend that is pretty conservative. He went off on some of our more liberal friend one night a few years back saying that GWB would end up being remembers as one of the greatest presidents in our nations history. We laughed... after he got kicked out of the bar for throwing a chair.

I honestly don't know a single person that thinks GWB is a good pres.

[Jer]

So Jer. GWB is going to be the equivalent of one of those bands who weren't appreciated in their time, but gained more respect later. I doubt it.

I hope this thread lasts for twenty or fifty years. I said it in 2004 and I'll say it again. It's my assessment that history will assess GWB to be one of the worst presidents in US history, certainly in a century timeframe.

and what did that comment in general have to do with previous experience being vital to being President?

I never said he will get better when viewed through the mists of time. He sucks. He'll suck 10, 20, 100 years from now.

I wouldn't say he was the worst of the last century however. LBJ really blew. As did Carter. Bush senior (while he can't hold a candle to his son) was pretty pathetic as well. I'd say it would be something like LBJ, GWB, Carter.

[Rubicon]

I honestly don't know a single person that thinks GWB is a good pres.

I don't think anyone in his situation would be considered a good pres right now. He has made some very difficult/unpopular decisions that, to date, have had questionable outcomes.

People are (unfortunately) judged by the outcome of their decisions. GWB will be judged by the repercussions of his decisions over the next 10-15 years.

[Theodore]

I don't think anyone in his situation would be considered a good pres right now. He has made some very difficult/unpopular decisions that, to date, have had questionable outcomes.

People are (unfortunately) judged by the outcome of their decisions. GWB will be judged by the repercussions of his decisions over the next 10-15 years.

Why is that unfortunate? Seems pretty fair to me!

[Rubicon]

Why is that unfortunate? Seems pretty fair to me!

Because it gives the illusion of certainty where there is none.

"The outcome bias is an error made in evaluating the quality of a decision when the outcome of that decision is already known."


"One will often judge a past decision by its ultimate outcome instead of based on the quality of the decision at the time it was made, given what was known at that time. This is an error because no decision maker ever knows whether or not a calculated risk will turn out for the best. The actual outcome of the decision will often be determined by chance, with some risks working out and others not. Individuals whose judgments are influenced by outcome bias are seemingly holding decision makers responsible for events beyond their control."


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Outcome_bias

[flyby]

I honestly don't know a single person that thinks GWB is a good pres.

you guys are lame. this film (http://www.apple.com/trailers/lions_gate/w/) is gonna prove you wrong.

[mr_gyptian]

Who has the chops to stand up to the hard line party bosses once they are in office? Who will be able to consult their own compass when the people who have the ear of the president are spewing advice and influencing policy decisions?

McCain & Obama do. No matter what you think of these two, they have no problem taking on the party bigwigs.

But let's be honest, both of these guys have a higher than average chance of ending up dead in office. Biden can pick up the mantle and get bipartisan support. Palin? Big question mark. I'm sure if she takes office a swarm of 'helpers' will be coming out of the woodwork, and these helpers won't have the best interests of the people in mind. How is she already under investigation, she's been in office less than 2 years?

I really wish McCain had made a different choice. So many very qualified women available if that's what he was looking to do.

On different levels there certainly are women more qualified for being the VP. If he was going to pick a woman, my ideal choice would have been Condi. HOwever, I think McCain/Palin are going to hammer the earmark/porkbarrel/corruption line. At it's base point I think that will resonate more with the American people than Obama's change. Especially change that comes with the most status quo democrat in the senate.

The fact that she has taken on the corruption in one of the most corrupt states in the nation is what made McCain's choice. She also is a complete Washington outsider. which, I don't think anyone can argue is a bad thing.

lastly, this fatalism is kind of weird. to say that mccain or obama has a better than average chance of dying in office is nothing more than hype.

[bklyn]

"US president" is in my dead pool for 2009.

I don't think "corruption fighter" was the main reason he chose her. Rudy has a much better and defensible track record in that arena and is also a Washington outsider who managed a city economy larger than many other countries.

She was the 'chick pick' and they went with her because Obama didn't go with Clinton.

- Condi is much more powerful where she is vs being vp
- Powell's rep has been tarnished by the UN testimony re: Iraq
- both will not run vs Obama
- despite doing the rounds on the pundit circuit, Carly Fiorina also has a tarnished rep
- Romney, despite the religious affiliation would have boosted the campaign's economic chops
- Ron Paul would have added his white supremacist affiliations to McCain's "Gook-Gate" and doomed the campaign
- Rudy would have bought energy and experience but both of them together = full scale nukes
- none of his other competitors seeking nomination is in any way fit for consideration

[rideit]

I agree Tracy, VP would be a huge step backwards for Condi.
Maybe she is angling for 2012...
(Imagine that race...Condi-Vs.Hillary!)

[AstroPax]

I honestly don't know a single person that thinks GWB is a good pres.

On a similar note, I honestly don't know a single person that thinks Carter was a good president.

[rideit]

On a similar note, I honestly don't know a single person that thinks Carter was a good president.
With enough of this....
http://www.gasolinealleyantiques.com/kits/images/CarRevell/revell-billycarter.JPG

[Adolf Allerbush]

On a similar note, I honestly don't know a single person that thinks Carter was a good president.

He's arguably one of the smartest presidence we've ever had...what was his IQ 157? Not exactly dumb...whereas you have GWB at like 138 or something...who is arguably the stupidest president in the history of the US...but yeah, Carter didn't reach out for help from anyone else...and isolated himself too much which made him very ineffectual. He had some good ideas and if his environmental programs hadn't been thwarted by Reagan I think we'd be in a much better situation today...one could argue that Reagan is maybe did the most damage for the country besides GWB. Why people continue to support the GOP is beyond me. Our most prosperous economic times have come under a dem president...and the economy is something that conservatives allegedly hold important...yet they absolutely suck at doing anything good for the economy. See the failure of trickle down economics and GWB's insane lack of restraint with the budget. But people keep blindly voting for these morons becasue people like Rush Limbaugh tell them too....it's sad how stupid the American public is.

[telebobski]

Jimmy Carter is a great example. Two terms in Georgia State Senate, one-half term as Governor of what was then a second-class state before he started running for Pres. Runs on the strength of the backlash against Nixon and being an outsider. He's wicked smart, and a nice guy. He wins - and Fails miserably.