TOP SNOWFALL

fatback · #**101** 07-10-2009, 03:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by beaterdit

Lance is just biding his time, he's only 8 seconds off the yellow jersey.

Contador showed his relative inexperience. He cracked and left the protection of his team and likely killed himself for 6 seconds.

The real mountains haven't started yet and Lance still has a lot of support, especially with Levi. Now that Contador's showing his nerves, it's more likely that the will support Lance IMO.

Where/when did Contador crack?

SchralphMacchio · #**102** 07-10-2009, 03:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Razorslug

What exactly is meant by "staying on his wheel" ?

Sitting on someone's wheel is literally getting your front wheel an inch or few off their rear wheel. You keep in their wind protection (30% resistance savings) and are in perfect position to match their moves and counter attack if they show signs of cracking. The real nice thing about sitting in someone's wheel is that you can push a bigger gear than they are because you are in the draft, and when you jump for a counter attack you've got more leverage and fresh legs. The more energy the person wastes fighting you off, the less they have to catch and attack your teammate sitting up front in top position. You can block and kill their momentum - did you see the split move Contador and Lance made on Evans when they caught him? Super effective.

Quote:

Originally Posted by beaterdit

Contador showed his relative inexperience. He cracked and left the protection of his team and likely killed himself for 6 seconds.

The real mountains haven't started yet and Lance still has a lot of support, especially with Levi. Now that Contador's showing his nerves, it's more likely that the will support Lance IMO.

He looked fine to me. Look at his race resume. He's not as green as you think.

gonehuckin · #**103** 07-10-2009, 03:48 PM

I think he meant cracked from the team. Yeah it was a stupid move. But he made up 19+ seconds and now its hard to for his own teammate to dethrone him.

grrrr · #**104** 07-10-2009, 04:15 PM

Was it part of joining the team that Contador was expected to play second fiddle to Armstrong? It doesn't seem like Lance is upset that he pulled away. If you watched, they were talking right before he broke. I'm sure it was no surprise and I'm sure he's not pissed. As long as he didn't kill himslef for the next few days, and it doesn't look like he did, than it's a good thing for the whole team. Lance will get his shot. He's still in tight.

grrrr · #**105** 07-10-2009, 04:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gonehuckin

I think he meant cracked from the team. Yeah it was a stupid move. But he made up 19+ seconds and now its hard to for his own teammate to dethrone him.

For a 2 second lead? I don't think "dethroning" is out of the question.

fatback · #**106** 07-10-2009, 04:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by grrrr

Was it part of joining the team that Contador was expected to play second fiddle to Armstrong? It doesn't seem like Lance is upset that he pulled away. If you watched, they were talking right before he broke. I'm sure it was no surprise and I'm sure he's not pissed. As long as he didn't kill himslef for the next few days, and it doesn't look like he did, than it's a good thing for the whole team. Lance will get his shot. He's still in tight.

Snipped this from a longer story on Velonews here: http://tour-de-france.velonews.com/a...y-attack-falls

“It wasn’t really to the plan, I didn’t expect him to go with the plan, so that was no surprise,” Armstrong said. “It was windy, so it was hard to go alone. Like I said, I wasn’t surprised.“

Hard to say for sure, but it sounds like Lance is a little pissed about the attack to me. It will all sort itself out though. Either he will be able to climb with Contador or he won't. I'm hoping that he can win his 8th tour, but I still think the smart money is on Contador. Either way it should be a helluva tour.

gonehuckin · #**107** 07-10-2009, 04:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by grrrr

For a 2 second lead? I don't think "dethroning" is out of the question.

Well, the Italian wont stay in first. Likely its going to be quite a few stages until a front runner makes a big move again so times will probably stay the same until either the next TT or climbing finish (or a break in the pelaton like when Lance sperated, but I think thats relatively rare). So 2 seconds could be enough to hold yellow for a while. But what I'm refering to is the teamwork side of it. If you have a teammate in yellow, the teams strategy changes and it may not be exactly kosher for lance to make a move.

atomicboy · #**108** 07-10-2009, 08:52 PM

The race for final gc starts at stage 15. The next couple of mountains stages are tough but have long run outs for a regrouping of sorts and then there are a few sprint stages.

Stage 15 will reshuffle those strong enough to contend for gc

Stage 16 and stage 17 (Queens Stage) are brutal but again have long run outs to the finish.

stage 16

stage 17

Stage 18 ITT will be interesting but the course favors a stage time trialist over a pure time trialist. Contador has improved but Lance is so tough the last week especially in ITT's.

stage 19 final cat 2 climb with a run to the finish

stage 20 all bets are off and will come down to who can gut out a steep 20km hill that will seem to go on forever. I am hoping for as Sherwin would say "a heads of State" battle to the death.

Benny Profane · #**109** 07-10-2009, 09:12 PM

That's it. I gotta get an HD setup. The visuals are superb. Great direction.

huckbucket · #**110** 07-10-2009, 09:17 PM

The race will be waaaaaay over before stage 20. In fact, I think it's over already. Lance will not, can not, is not capable of putting time into Contador. Whereas Contador can ride away from Lance if they're going uphill head to head. It's as simple as that. If Contador is going to lose this race, it will be from a logistic or planning error on his part (nutrition comes to mind).

Lance can't really lose anyway. If he wins it outright he's a hero. If his teammate wins, he's the consumate domestique.

fool · #**111** 07-10-2009, 09:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fatback

Snipped this from a longer story on Velonews here: http://tour-de-france.velonews.com/a...y-attack-falls

Good article, thanks. And jeez, stages 16 and 17 (obviously 20 too) look brutal!

It sure is exciting so far!

SaltMind · #**112** 07-10-2009, 11:01 PM

In spite of Astana’s domination, this is turning out to be a great tour; so far, anyway. It’s always chill to see an unknown have a big moment so congratulations Rinaldo Nocentini.

Given his effort, I’m surprised that Contador didn’t gain even more time so it seems that (for now at least) Armstrong can pace Contador and might even be the second strongest rider in the peloton, plus, he’s proven over and over to be the smartest. This would be an incredible matchup if Lance were leading Astana and Alberto were on weaker team such as Evans’ team.

Trackhead · #**113** 07-10-2009, 11:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ePiech

This would be an incredible matchup if Lance were leading Astana and Alberto were on weaker team such as Evans’ team.

If that were the case, I think Contador would have attacked lower on the climb and put 60 seconds plus into Armstrong.

farmguy · #**114** 07-11-2009, 07:42 AM

It is also pretty tough and stressful defending the yellow once you have it, he will probably lose it in a few days on purpose...then, its for grabs by anyone one who has the legs in stages 15/16/17. LA does have the most experience, saving his legs now will payoff in the later stages IF he wants to go for the win.

Trackhead · #**115** 07-11-2009, 11:03 AM

Doping, behind the scenes.

Long Duck Dong · #**116** 07-11-2009, 08:47 PM

I'd love to see Lance do well, but anyone who is really watching this tour can tell that Contador is in another class altogether. His stage 1 TT was dominating, and his acceleration at the end of Friday's stage got him 20 seconds in just over 1k. Thats insane. No one is putting time into him this tour. He is going to win, and its gonna be by minutes, not seconds. A top 5 finish for Lance is definitely possible, and would be an amazing achievement. But all the American media saying stuff like "Lance and Contador are still jockeying for leadership of the team" are either trying to drum up a story or are not watching the race. Probably both. In my opinion, the big stories from the first week are:

1. Contador is truly dominant.
2. Evans needs to find himself on Saxo, Garmin or Columbia next year in a big way. (Wouldn't Columbia be a good fit? Excellent TTT ability, and Martin and Kirchen could support him in the mountains, as they aren't really GC guys.)
3. Wiggins has really come out of nowhere.
4. Menchov and Sastre decided not to show up to this year's race.

Steepdeepnlong · #**117** 07-12-2009, 12:25 AM

I'm sorry, but those of you saying Contador has been dominant are nuts. This race hasn't even started. The Pyrennes are for the riders who think they can climb, the Alps are for the riders who can climb.

Atomicboy nailed it, whoever has the legs to climb Stages 15-18, the TT 19, and climb again for Stage 20, rolls into Paris sipping champagne. It might be Contador, but all I've seen from him is that he needed to assert himself as the team leader and went hard in a pointless, early stage for a lousy 2 second lead over Lance.

It might be Lance - I think he might be dreaming by believing he can win this tour, but he's won a few before and I am not ready to bet against him. What I've seen fro Lance so far is a guy riding smart, knowing that there are 21 stages, and he doesn't have to win it now. And he's only 8 seconds off the lead. In the past, he's been a minute or two behind at this point in the race. That SOB is a genetic mutant, altered by radiation and chemo! He's fucking Spiderman! Nobody has dominated him in this tour and nobody will. Beat him, maybe. But not dominate.

And don't lose track of Levi. He might be due and could be in position to just hang out while Contador and Lance beat on each other.

Long Duck Dong · #**118** 07-12-2009, 11:57 AM

Contador obviously isn't dominating in the GC standings (well, he is winning) but thats not what I meant. The race is still in its early stages but there have been 2 chances so far. One is the TT which Contador did, in fact, dominate. The other was the first summit finish, which was the only one in the Pyrenees. As everyone knows, summit finishes are chances to get and keep time. There are only 3 in this year's tour, which is strange. It simply isn't the case that the first week is meaningless and the 3rd week will decide everything. The Alps will be decisive, but Verbier (small hill) and Ventoux are the only summit finishes. The rest of the climbs are somewhat marginalized by being so far from the finishes.

When Contador bolted from the pack on Marcalis, the strongest GC climbers (Sastre + Schleck, guys who are stronger climbers than Armstrong) couldn't come CLOSE to staying on Contador's wheel. Despite the fact that Armstrong needed to mark their wheels from a strategic point of view, there is no way he could have marked Contador.

I'm not saying Contador is beyond making mistakes. We have already seen him make some this season. I'm just saying that it is tempting to see the GC standings and assume that the two are in similar form. They are not. No matter how bad the American media wants it to be so to sell news.

Also, one thing about this year's tour that I think is interesting: Sherwin and Ligget keep commenting that they are expecting more attacks that aren't happening. I wonder if this is what clean bike racing looks like. Back in the day, guys would take dig after dig, and then do it again the next day. We're really only seen one decisive attack in the three days of climbing so far. Part of that is the position of most of the climbs so far from the finishes, but part of it I think is just that these guys are a lot more human then they have been in the recent past.

Sinecure · #**119** 07-12-2009, 02:38 PM

Here's my latest thought on a prediction:

In Paris:
Alberto: Yellow
Lance: Polka Dot
Cavendish: Green
Andy Schleck: White
Astana: Team

That would be cool.
But I clearly suck at the fantasy thing, based on my current ranking (dead last amongst our group) so I could be wrong.

Sinecure · #**120** 07-12-2009, 02:55 PM

Women cyclists:

How to save some weight. Painted on uniforms:

Downbound Train · #**121** 07-12-2009, 04:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Long Duck Dong

Also, one thing about this year's tour that I think is interesting: Sherwin and Ligget keep commenting that they are expecting more attacks that aren't happening. I wonder if this is what clean bike racing looks like.

I was thinking the same thing. Dope free would not only keep them more tired on each individual stage, but may also make them more conservative for fear of losing their legs for the critical climbs later on.

gonehuckin · #**122** 07-13-2009, 01:07 AM

This race hasn't even started. And its already an exciting event. The gamesmanship in cycling is some of the best. And I can't really think of another sport that asks as much of its athletes as a big stage race. I understand that the first few stages your running on adrenaline. But after stage about five, its got to be hell, even for guys in this kind of shape. No real recovery time. Maybe sled dog racing, mountaineering the highest peaks in the world, and a few other sports could be as difficult mentally and physically taxing. But not many.

SaltMind · #**123** 07-13-2009, 03:05 AM

Meh, the attacks haven’t come because the course this year removes any strategic advantage with an early lead.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Trackhead

If that were the case, I think Contador would have attacked lower on the climb and put 60 seconds plus into Armstrong.

Probably, but Bobke predicts Lance will be wearing yellow in Paris.

No question, Contador is the strongest rider in the tour but he still didn’t show a clean pair of heels in the Pyrenees. While Evans is already +3 minutes in spite of similar prologue times as well as finishing with the same group on the road stages plus every attack by Evans was quickly shut down without a strong team to back it up.

If Contador were in a similar situation then the TTT along with always being forced to attack unsupported would take its toll and we would see a real race unfold instead of two or more Astana riders on the podium in Paris.